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Author : Martin Feldkircher
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (118 download)
Download or read book Global Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Expectations written by Martin Feldkircher and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Craig S. Hakkio
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437934552
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)
Download or read book Global Inflation Dynamics written by Craig S. Hakkio and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines the dynamics of various measures of national, regional, and global inflation. The author calculates the first two common factors for four measures of industrial country inflation rates: total CPI, core CPI, cyclical total CPI, and cyclical core CPI. He then demonstrates that the first common factor is sometimes helpful in forecasting national inflation rates. It also shows that the second common factor and the first common factor for cyclical inflation is sometimes helpful in forecasting national CPI inflation rates. Finally, Hakkio suggests that the commonality of industrial inflation rates reflects the commonality of the determinants of inflation. Charts and tables.
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : Jongrim Ha
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464813760
Total Pages : 513 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Author : Mr.Rudolfs Bems
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484384245
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-11-08 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following a period of disinflation during the 1990s and early 2000s, inflation in emerging markets has remained remarkably low and stable. Was this related to a global disinflation environment triggered by China's integration into world trade and the broader globalization in these economies, or to better domestic policies? In this paper, we review the inflation performance in a sample of 19 large emerging markets in the past couple of decades and quantify the impact of domestic and global factors in determining inflation. We document that the level, volatility, and persistence of inflation declined significantly, albeit not uniformly. Our results suggest that longer-term inflation expectations, linked to domestic factors, were the main determinant of inflation. External factors played a considerably smaller role. The results are a useful piece of evidence as emerging markets craft their monetary policies to navigate the future shift in global financial conditions.
Author : Mr.Yasser Abdih
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484372565
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long? written by Mr.Yasser Abdih and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-22 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon—sometimes attributed to low global inflation—has been primarily caused by a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. This feature is shown to be specific to the euro area (in comparison with the United States). Monetary policy needs to stay accommodative to help guide inflation back to target.
Author : Gohar Minasyan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans written by Gohar Minasyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-03 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Author : Mr.Andre Meier
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455202231
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)
Download or read book Still Minding the Gap—Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps written by Mr.Andre Meier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. We find that such episodes generally brought about significant disinflation, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil prices. Indeed, inflation declined by about the same fraction of the initial inflation rate across episodes. That said, disinflation has tended to taper off at very low positive inflation rates, arguably reflecting downward nominal rigidities and well-anchored inflation expectations. Temporary inflation increases during episodes were, in turn, systematically related to currency depreciation or higher oil prices. Overall, the historical patterns suggest little upside inflation risk in advanced economies facing the prospect of persistent large output gaps.
Author : Craig S. Hakkio
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Global Inflation Dynamics written by Craig S. Hakkio and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of various measures of national, regional, and global inflation. The paper calculates the first two common factors for four measures of industrial country inflation rates: total CPI, core CPI, cyclical total CPI, and cyclical core CPI. The paper then demonstrates that the first common factor is sometimes helpful in forecasting national inflation rates. It also shows that the second common factor and the first common factor for cyclical inflation is sometimes helpful in forecasting national CPI inflation rates. Finally, the paper suggests that the commonality of industrial inflation rates reflects the commonality of the determinants of inflation.
Author : Christian Friedrich
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Global Inflation Dynamics in the Post-crisis Period written by Christian Friedrich and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Juan Angel Garcia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484367863
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation written by Juan Angel Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trend inflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trend inflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflation expectations in the estimation, both market-based and surveys. That evidence: (i) supports the expansion of ECB’s UMP measures since 2015; (ii) provides a metric to monitor long-term inflation expectations following their introduction, and the likelihood of a sustained return of inflation towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term
Author : Mr.Rudolfs Bems
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148439223X
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
Author : Weshah Razzak
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1000880575
Total Pages : 377 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Inflation Dynamic written by Weshah Razzak and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-06-16 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains inflation dynamic, using time series data from 1960 for 42 countries. These countries are different in every aspect, historically, culturally, socially, politically, institutionally, and economically. They are chosen on the basis of the data availability only and cover the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Europe, Australasia, and the United States. Inflation reached double digits in the developed countries in the 1970s and 80s, and then central banks, successfully stabilized it by anchoring inflation expectations for decades, until now. Conditional on common and country-specific shocks such as oil price shocks, financial and banking and political crises, wars, pandemics, natural disasters etc., the book tests various theoretical models about the long and short run relationships between money and prices, money growth and inflation, money growth and real output, expected inflation; the output gap, fiscal policy, and inflation, using a number of parametric and non-parametric methods, and pays attention to specifications and estimations problems. In addition, it explains why policymakers in inflation – targeting countries, e.g. the U.S., failed to anticipate the recent sudden rise in inflation. And, it examines the fallibility of the Modern Monetary Theory’s policy prescription to reduce inflation by raising taxes. This is a unique and innovative book, which will find an audience among students, academics, researchers, policy makers, analysts in corporations, private and central banks and international monetary institutions.
Author : Saioa Armendariz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Dutch Inflation: Developments, Drivers, and the Risk of Wage-Price Spiral written by Saioa Armendariz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-13 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global inflation surged in 2022, driven by high gas price growth. With Russia being a key supplier of energy products, the start of the war in Ukraine has led to strong inflationary pressures in the euro area (EA), given the region’s significant exposure to the Russian gas. The price shock has been particularly strong in the Netherlands, largely due to the larger share of gas on the energy mix compared to other peers, making the country vulnerable to changing market conditions.
Author : Craig Stephan (Economiste)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (741 download)
Download or read book Global Inflation Dynamics written by Craig Stephan (Economiste) and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Sangyup Choi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484316657
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-05 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.
Author : Ravi Balakrishnan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book U.S. Inflation Dynamics written by Ravi Balakrishnan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-06 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to improve the understanding of U.S. inflation dynamics by separating out structural from cyclical effects using frequency domain techniques. Most empirical studies of inflation dynamics do not distinguish between secular and cyclical movements, and we show that such a distinction is critical. In particular, we study traditional Phillips curve (TPC) and new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models of inflation, and conclude that the long-run secular decline in inflation cannot be explained in terms of changes in external trade and global factor markets. These variables tend to impact inflation primarily over the business cycle. We infer that the secular decline in inflation may well reflect improved monetary policy credibility and, thus, maintaining low inflation in the long run is closely linked to anchored inflation expectations.
