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External Vulnerability In Emerging Market Economies
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Book Synopsis External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies by : Mr.Christian B. Mulder
Download or read book External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Christian B. Mulder and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-07-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis episodes can be well explained by a parsimonious set of core fundamentals and liquidity related variables; and (iii) the presence of an IMF-supported program significantly reduced the depth of crises. The results suggest that as a rule of thumb countries should hold reserves to the tune of short-term debt to avoid contagion-related crises, provided their current deficits are modest and their real effective exchange rates are not significantly misaligned.
Book Synopsis External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies by : Matthieu Bussière
Download or read book External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies written by Matthieu Bussière and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis episodes can be well explained by a parsimonious set of core fundamentals and liquidity related variables; and (iii) the presence of an IMF-supported program significantly reduced the depth of crises.
Book Synopsis Measuring Potential Vulnerabilities in Emerging Market Economies by : John Hawkins
Download or read book Measuring Potential Vulnerabilities in Emerging Market Economies written by John Hawkins and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes some experiments with the construction of relatively simple indices which summarise in a systematic and objective way information about emerging economies currently under pressure in financial markets and those vulnerable to such pressure in the future. A survey of the literature suggests financial crises are typically preceded by overvalued exchange rates, inadequate international reserves, recessions and excessive credit growth. These indicators and others, such as short-term external debt, which appear more important in recent crises are included in the summary indices of vulnerability. The vulnerability indices are shown to have modest predictive power for the pressure index but are far from conclusive in themselves.
Book Synopsis The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets by : MissMali Chivakul
Download or read book The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets written by MissMali Chivakul and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of the recent global crisis on emerging market economies (EMs). Our cross-country analysis shows that the impact of the crisis was more pronounced in those EMs that had initial weaker fundamentals and greater financial and trade linkages. This effect is observed along a number of dimensions, such as growth, stock market performance, sovereign spreads, and credit growth. This paper also shows that during this crisis, pre-crisis reserve holdings helped to mitigate the initial growth collapse. This finding contrasts with other studies that fail to find a significant relationship between reserves and the growth decline. This paper argues that our preferred measure of impact is a more accurate reflection of the true impact of the crisis on EMs.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies by : Mr.Richard Hemming
Download or read book Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-23 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent crises in Argentina and Turkey illustrate the continuing importance of fiscal problems in precipitating financial crises, and whatever their cause, financial crises always have important fiscal dimensions. market economies, particularly with regards to the fiscal causes of crises; fiscal vulnerability indicators which can help to predict crises; whether fiscal variables explain the severity of crises; and the fiscal consequences of crises. The study uses a large set of fiscal variables for 29 emerging market economies over the period 1970-2000; as well as detailed case studies of 11 recent crises in emerging market economies to examine some of the structural and institutional dimensions of fiscal vulnerability.
Book Synopsis Assessing Financial Vulnerability by : Morris Goldstein
Download or read book Assessing Financial Vulnerability written by Morris Goldstein and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2000 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
Book Synopsis Unconventional Central Bank Measures for Emerging Economies by : Mr.Etienne B. Yehoue
Download or read book Unconventional Central Bank Measures for Emerging Economies written by Mr.Etienne B. Yehoue and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unconventional central bank measures are playing a key policy role for many advanced economies in the 2007-09 global crisis. Are they playing a similar role for emerging economies? Emerging economies have widely used unconventional foreign exchange and domestic short-term liquidity easing measures. Their use of credit easing and quantitative easing measures has been much more limited. Thus, unconventional measures are much less important for emerging economies compared to advanced economies in achieving broader macroeconomic objectives. The difference can be attributed to the relatively limited financial stress in emerging economies, their external vulnerabilities and their limited scope for quasifiscal activities.
Book Synopsis The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability by : Norman Loayza
Download or read book The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability written by Norman Loayza and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors examine empirically how domestic structural characteristics related to openness and product- and factor-market flexibility influence the impact that terms-of-trade shocks can have on aggregate output. For this purpose, they apply an econometric methodology based on semi-structural vector auto-regressions to a panel of 90 countries with annual observations for the period 1974-2000. Using this methodology, the authors isolate and standardize the shocks, estimate their impact on GDP, and examine how this impact depends on the domestic conditions outlined above. They find that larger trade openness magnifies the output impact of external shocks, particularly the negative ones, while imporvements in labor market flexibility and financial openness reduce their impact. Domestic financial depth has a more nuanced role in stabilizing the economy. It helps reduce the impact of external shocks particularly in environments of high exposure, that is, when trade and financial openness are high, firm entry in unrestricted, and labor markets are rigid.
Book Synopsis Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-market Economies by : Tatjana Dahlhaus
Download or read book Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-market Economies written by Tatjana Dahlhaus and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies by : Mr.Fabio Comelli
Download or read book Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Fabio Comelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-17 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms.
Book Synopsis Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods by : Doug Hostland
Download or read book Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods written by Doug Hostland and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.
Book Synopsis Debt-Related Vulnerabilities and Financial Crises by : Mr.Brad Setser
Download or read book Debt-Related Vulnerabilities and Financial Crises written by Mr.Brad Setser and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-10-24 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of currency and maturity mismatches in sectoral balance sheets has increasingly become a regular element in the IMF’s tool kit for surveillance in emerging market countries. This paper describes this so-called balance sheet approach and shows how it can be applied to detect vulnerabilities and shape policy advice. It also provides a broad-brushed overview of how balance sheet vulnerabilities have evolved over the past decade and cites a number of case studies.
Book Synopsis The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability by : Norman V. Loayza
Download or read book The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability written by Norman V. Loayza and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors examine empirically how domestic structural characteristics related to openness and product- and factor-market flexibility influence the impact that terms-of-trade shocks can have on aggregate output. For this purpose, they apply an econometric methodology based on semi-structural vector auto-regressions to a panel of 90 countries with annual observations for the period 1974-2000. Using this methodology, the authors isolate and standardize the shocks, estimate their impact on GDP, and examine how this impact depends on the domestic conditions outlined above. They find that larger trade openness magnifies the output impact of external shocks, particularly the negative ones, while improvements in labor market flexibility and financial openness reduce their impact. Domestic financial depth has a more nuanced role in stabilizing the economy. It helps reduce the impact of external shocks particularly in environments of high exposure-that is, when trade and financial openness are high, firm entry is unrestricted, and labor markets are rigid.
Book Synopsis Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies by : Mr.Chorng-Huey Wong
Download or read book Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Chorng-Huey Wong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-07-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A bivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) model is used to test causal relations between the current account and the capital account in four emerging market economies. The results show that high capital mobility could be a major cause of current account instability. Therefore, macroeconomic policy to restore external balance must deal directly with capital inflows. The paper recommends making nominal exchange rate sufficiently flexible to avoid inconsistencies between short-run and long-run real exchange rates; complementing credit tightening by fiscal restraint to reduce interest rate differentials; and strengthening reforms and surveillance of the financial system to prevent banks from excessive risk taking.
Book Synopsis How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy by : Mr.Serhat Solmaz
Download or read book How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy written by Mr.Serhat Solmaz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-23 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VAR consisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for small open economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolbox can be used for “nowcasting” the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that external shocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.
Book Synopsis The IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise - Design and Methodological Toolkit by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book The IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise - Design and Methodological Toolkit written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-26 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Early Warning Exercise (EWE) draws together a combination of analytical techniques, practical experience, seasoned judgment and unique databases in order to assess the potential consequences associated with economic and financial tail risks. There are several key features of the exercise. First, the exercise aims to help prevent the occurrence of financial crises and to limit their potential damage, not to predict the timing of crises. Second, coverage is fairly comprehensive, including both advanced and emerging economies. Third, the EWE is based on rigorous analysis and cutting-edge techniques, but it uses a holistic approach, drawing also various other tools rather than relying on a single crisis model. Fourth, it combines empirical analysis with forward-looking thinking, based on inputs from key policymakers and academics, in-depth real-world knowledge from practitioners, and seasoned judgment from IMF experts. The primary purpose of the EWE is to identify as early as possible the buildup of underlying vulnerabilities that predispose a system to a crisis, so that corrective policies can be implemented and contingency plans put in place.
Book Synopsis The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability by : Norman Loayza
Download or read book The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability written by Norman Loayza and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors examine empirically how domestic structural characteristics related to openness and product- and factor-market flexibility influence the impact that terms-of-trade shocks can have on aggregate output. For this purpose, they apply an econometric methodology based on semi-structural vector auto-regressions to a panel of 90 countries with annual observations for the period 1974-2000. Using this methodology, the authors isolate and standardize the shocks, estimate their impact on GDP, and examine how this impact depends on the domestic conditions outlined above. They find that larger trade openness magnifies the output impact of external shocks, particularly the negative ones, while improvements in labor market flexibility and financial openness reduce their impact. Domestic financial depth has a more nuanced role in stabilizing the economy. It helps reduce the impact of external shocks particularly in environments of high exposure - that is, when trade and financial openness are high, firm entry is unrestricted, and labor markets are rigid.
