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Author : Russell A. Barnett
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 10 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (654 download)
Download or read book Estimates of Canada's Potential GDP and Output Gap written by Russell A. Barnett and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Pierre St.-Amant
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780662260196
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (61 download)
Download or read book Measurement of the Output Gap written by Pierre St.-Amant and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.
Author : Mr.Marcello M. Estevão
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451962045
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Canada's Potential Growth written by Mr.Marcello M. Estevão and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates the impact of the current financial crisis on Canada's potential GDP growth. Using a simple accounting framework to decompose trend GDP growth into changes in capital, labor services and total factor productivity, we find a sizeable drop in Canadian potential growth in the short term. The estimated decline of about 1 percentage point originates from a sharply decelerating capital stock accumulation (as investment has dropped steeply) and a rising long-term unemployment rate (which would raise equilibrium unemployment rates). However, over the medium term, we expect Canada's potential GDP growth to gradually rise to around 2 percent, below the pre-crisis growth rate, mostly reflecting the effects of population aging and a secular decline in average working hours.
Author : Ali Alichi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513523465
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Author : Ali Alichi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484366328
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455210927
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
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Author : Bank of Canada
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (497 download)
Download or read book A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap [electronic Resource] written by Bank of Canada and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Document de Travail written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Leo Butler
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 108 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (21 download)
Download or read book The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) written by Leo Butler and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The level of potential output plays a central role in the Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). This report describes a general method to measure potential output, as well as its implementation in the QPM system. The report begins with a short history of the measurement of potential output. Building on this experience, a hybrid method of measuring potential output is developed that combines economic structure with a time-series filter. The resulting filter, known as the extended multivariate (EMV) filter, exploits theoretical relationships that are embodied in QPM in an effort to identify demand-side and supply-side influences on output. These various relationships are combined in a filter that imposes a smoothness property on the dynamics of potential output. The report describes the general structure of the EMV filter, the various economic relationships that it uses, and the weights applied to these different pieces of information. It concludes with an evaluation of the EMV filter and some suggestions for future improvements.
Author : Bank of Canada
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (121 download)
Download or read book MUSE written by Bank of Canada and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection. Over the past year, Bank staff have been using a new macroeconometric model, MUSE (Model of the U.S. Economy). The model is a system of estimated equations that describe, in a stock-flow framework, the interactions among the principal macroeconomic variables, such as gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate. The stock-flow equilibrium is fully described in MUSE. In steady state, the model defines specific values for all stocks, including capital stock, government debt, financial wealth, and net foreign assets."--Pub. website
Author : B. J. Drabble
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 96 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (243 download)
Download or read book Potential Output, 1946-1970 written by B. J. Drabble and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Patrick Blagrave
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475565135
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Author : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151352786X
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Estimates of Canada's potential GDP and output gap written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note briefly reviews the usefulness of the concepts of potential GDP and the output gap (GDP relative to potential GDP), which figure prominently in the conduct of both monetary and fiscal policy. [...] The importance of providing estimates of the structural budget balance is underscored in the United Kingdom, where, under the Code for fiscal stability the government is required to publish estimates of fiscal aggregates adjusted for the economic cycle. [...] The comparison of potential GDP and output gap estimates shows that: Despite some differences in the level of the output gap at certain points in time, the output gap estimates across organizations are highly correlated; The output gap estimates show different views regarding the Canadian economy's relative strength heading into the recession: - at the upper end, the Bank of Canada estimates a [...] The following provides a brief review of given their role in the conduct of monetary and the usefulness of the concepts of potential GDP fiscal policy, it is useful to compare estimates and the output gap, as well as a comparison of produced by different organizations. [...] The estimate of potential GDP Masi (1997) notes that the concepts of potential therefore figures prominently in calculating the GDP and output gaps "are central to the IMF's structural balance since it is used to identify the analytical work in providing policy cyclical revenue and expenditure components of recommendations to member governments." the budget.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Estimations du PIB potentiel et de l'écart de production du Canada written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: La comparaison des estimations du PIB potentiel et de l'écart de production suscite les observations suivantes : Abstraction faite de quelques différences dans l'appréciation de l'importance de l'écart de production à certains points dans le temps, les estimations de l'écart de production produites par les diverses organisations suivent des courbes très proches. [...] Les estimations de l'écart de production traduisent des vues différentes quant à la vigueur relative de l'économie canadienne au début de la récession : - à un extrême, la Banque du Canada estime l'écart de production de 2008 à +0,8 %, ce qui donne à penser que l'économie était relativement vigoureuse juste avant la récession; ii Estimations du PIB potentiel et de l'écart de production du Canada [...] En outre, les estimations du PIB potentiel et de 2. L'utilité des estimations du PIB potentiel l'écart de production sont généralement corrigées et de l'écart de production à la suite des révisions des séries de données sur. [...] Le DPB prévoit que la Écart de production, 2000-2014 croissance du PIB potentiel ralentira durant les trois dernières années de la période de projection (Niveau) 3 3 en raison d'une baisse de la croissance de la 2 2 productivité de la main d'œuvre, tandis que le ministère des Finances et le FMI projettent une 1 1 accélération de la croissance du PIB potentiel. [...] Banque du Canada Les estimations du PIB potentiel sont calculées à partir des estimations historiques de la mesure conventionnelle de l'écart de production de la Banque du Canada, d'informations tirées du Rapport sur la politique monétaire de janvier 2010 et des calculs des auteurs.
Author : Zidong An
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356049
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)
Download or read book Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups written by Zidong An and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.
Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484382668
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Canada written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-06-13 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes recent economic developments, outlook, risks, and policy challenges of the Canadian economy. After almost two years, the effects of the oil price shock continue to reverberate through the Canadian economy. Growth has decelerated, but inflation expectations remain well anchored. With the slowdown in growth, the output gap has reopened. Persistently low energy prices pose an important risk to the economy. The banking system remains sound, but exposure to the oil and gas sector will require higher provisions against expected losses. The policy mix over the near-term should cushion the adverse effects of lower oil prices on the economy while safeguarding financial stability.
