The Age of Deleveraging

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Author :
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470918349
Total Pages : 548 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (79 download)

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Book Synopsis The Age of Deleveraging by : A. Gary Shilling

Download or read book The Age of Deleveraging written by A. Gary Shilling and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Top economist Gary Shilling shows you how to prosper in the slow-growing and deflationary times that lie ahead While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, author Gary Shilling, an award-winning economic forecaster, argues that the global economy is going through a long period of de-leveraging and weak growth, which makes deflation far more likely and a far greater threat to investors than inflation. Shilling explains in clear language and compelling logic why the world economy will struggle for several more years and what investors can do to protect and grow their wealth in the difficult times ahead. The investment strategies that worked for last 25 years will not work in the next 10 years. Shilling advises readers to avoid broad exposure to stocks, real estate, and commodities and to focus on high-quality bonds, high-dividend stocks, and consumer staple and food stocks. Written by one of today's best forecasters of economic trends-twice voted by Institutional Investor as Wall Street's top economist Clearly explains what to invest in, what to avoid, and how to cope with a deflationary, slow-growth economy Demonstrates how Shilling has been consistently right about major economic trends since he began forecasting in the early 1980s Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this timely guide lays out a convincing case for why investors need to be prepared for a long period of weak growth and deflation-not inflation-and what you can do to prosper in the difficult times ahead.

Deleveraging? What Deleveraging?

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Author :
Publisher : Geneva Reports on the World Ec
ISBN 13 : 9781907142796
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (427 download)

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Book Synopsis Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? by : Luigi Buttiglione

Download or read book Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? written by Luigi Buttiglione and published by Geneva Reports on the World Ec. This book was released on 2016-09-20 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 17th Geneva Report on the World Economy examines the causes of the unusually low interest rates seen in recent years, asks whether they are likely to persist, and explores the possible consequences should that happen. On the causes, the report argues that demographic developments and Chinese financial integration have been important drivers, reinforced since the crisis by a reluctance to invest and a shift in investor preferences towards safe assets. But some of these forces are likely to reverse in the future, suggesting that the current period of unusually low interest rates is unlikely to persist indefinitely. The pace at which that reversal will happen remains highly uncertain, however, and dependent on longer-term policy choices. The return to historically more normal levels of interest rates may consequently be quite drawn out and policymakers need to be alert to the consequences. Aside from increasing the frequency with which monetary policies are constrained by the lower bound on policy rates, persistently low interest rates on safe assets also encourage the adoption of strategies to lever up returns, so heightening the risks to financial stability. While macroprudential policies represent the first line of defense against such risks, policymakers should be careful not to expect too much from them.

The (Other) Deleveraging

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475505272
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis The (Other) Deleveraging by : Mr.Manmohan Singh

Download or read book The (Other) Deleveraging written by Mr.Manmohan Singh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-01 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Deleveraging has two components--shrinking of balance sheets due to increased haircuts/shedding of assets, and the reduction in the interconnectedness of the financial system. We focus on the second aspect and show that post-Lehman there has been a significant decline in the interconnectedness in the pledged collateral market between banks and nonbanks. We find that both the collateral and its associated velocity are not rebounding as of end-2011 and still about $4-5 trillion lower than the peak of $10 trillion as of end-2007. This paper updates Singh (2011) and we use this data to compare with the monetary aggregates (largely due to QE efforts in US, Euro area and UK), and discuss the overall financial lubrication that likely impacts the conduct of global monetary policy.

Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498307922
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts by : Ms.Sally Chen

Download or read book Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts written by Ms.Sally Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Balance sheet recessions have been a drag on activity after the Global Financial Crisis, underscoring the important role of balance sheet adjustment for resuming sustained growth. In this paper we examine private sector deleveraging experiences across 36 advanced and emerging economies countries since 1960. We consider the common features and divergent experiences of deleveraging episodes across countries, and analyze empirically the impact of different aspects of deleveraging during the bust phase of leverage cycles on subsequent medium-term growth. The results suggest that larger and quicker unwinding of non-financial sector debt overhangs is associated with sizable medium-term output gains, and that policies should focus on facilitating up-front balance sheet adjustment.

The Great Deleveraging

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Author :
Publisher : FT Press
ISBN 13 : 013248126X
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (324 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Deleveraging by : Chip Dickson

Download or read book The Great Deleveraging written by Chip Dickson and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2010-08-11 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past decade, the United States experienced two periods of excessive growth periods followed by two massive collapses: the technology and housing bubbles. Both were caused by illusions of growth and wealth creation: They were built on thin air. As an investor, how can you distinguish between “fake” wealth and the real thing? Where can you earn solid returns without falling victim to bubbles? Read The Great Deleveraging and find out. Former Wall Street analyst, strategist and Associate Director of Equity Research Chip Dickson and leading global business scholar Oded Shenkar first identify the policies and characteristics of societies most likely to generate real economic growth and investor wealth. Next, they outline specific lessons learned about bubbles and growth from nearly a century of investment returns. Finally, they identify global markets and sectors poised for high levels of sustainable growth--and make specific investment recommendations for each of them. In the wake of massive debt creation, history’s greatest deleveraging is now underway. For many investors, the next decade will be brutal. This book’s messages are designed to achiever real profits and real wealth creation. They are meant to help you navigate a challenging environment--and, hopefully, thrive. As seen on TheStreet.com

Principles

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Author :
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1982112387
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (821 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles by : Ray Dalio

Download or read book Principles written by Ray Dalio and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2018-08-07 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: #1 New York Times Bestseller “Significant...The book is both instructive and surprisingly moving.” —The New York Times Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful investors and entrepreneurs, shares the unconventional principles that he’s developed, refined, and used over the past forty years to create unique results in both life and business—and which any person or organization can adopt to help achieve their goals. In 1975, Ray Dalio founded an investment firm, Bridgewater Associates, out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City. Forty years later, Bridgewater has made more money for its clients than any other hedge fund in history and grown into the fifth most important private company in the United States, according to Fortune magazine. Dalio himself has been named to Time magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people in the world. Along the way, Dalio discovered a set of unique principles that have led to Bridgewater’s exceptionally effective culture, which he describes as “an idea meritocracy that strives to achieve meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical transparency.” It is these principles, and not anything special about Dalio—who grew up an ordinary kid in a middle-class Long Island neighborhood—that he believes are the reason behind his success. In Principles, Dalio shares what he’s learned over the course of his remarkable career. He argues that life, management, economics, and investing can all be systemized into rules and understood like machines. The book’s hundreds of practical lessons, which are built around his cornerstones of “radical truth” and “radical transparency,” include Dalio laying out the most effective ways for individuals and organizations to make decisions, approach challenges, and build strong teams. He also describes the innovative tools the firm uses to bring an idea meritocracy to life, such as creating “baseball cards” for all employees that distill their strengths and weaknesses, and employing computerized decision-making systems to make believability-weighted decisions. While the book brims with novel ideas for organizations and institutions, Principles also offers a clear, straightforward approach to decision-making that Dalio believes anyone can apply, no matter what they’re seeking to achieve. Here, from a man who has been called both “the Steve Jobs of investing” and “the philosopher king of the financial universe” (CIO magazine), is a rare opportunity to gain proven advice unlike anything you’ll find in the conventional business press.

Household Deleveraging and Saving Rates: A Cross-Country Analysis

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589064070
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Household Deleveraging and Saving Rates: A Cross-Country Analysis by : Romain Bouis

Download or read book Household Deleveraging and Saving Rates: A Cross-Country Analysis written by Romain Bouis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-29 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historically high household debt in several economies is calling for a deleveraging, but according to some economists, this adjustment can slow GDP growth by weighing on consumption. Using a sample of advanced and emerging market economies, this paper finds evidence of a negative relationship between changes of household debt-to-income ratios and saving rates. This relationship is however asymmetric, being significant only for debt build-ups. Declining debt ratios and saving are significantly related in some economies, but the relationship is driven by consumer credit, not by mortgages. Results therefore suggest that the economic cost associated with household deleveraging may be overestimated and motivate a deleveraging via lower mortgages.

Debt and Deleveraging

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (875 download)

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Book Synopsis Debt and Deleveraging by : Charles Roxburgh

Download or read book Debt and Deleveraging written by Charles Roxburgh and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Global Waves of Debt

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Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464815453
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose

Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Leveraged

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Author :
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022681694X
Total Pages : 318 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (268 download)

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Book Synopsis Leveraged by : Moritz Schularick

Download or read book Leveraged written by Moritz Schularick and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-12-13 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative guide to the new economics of our crisis-filled century. Published in collaboration with the Institute for New Economic Thinking. The 2008 financial crisis was a seismic event that laid bare how financial institutions’ instabilities can have devastating effects on societies and economies. COVID-19 brought similar financial devastation at the beginning of 2020 and once more massive interventions by central banks were needed to heed off the collapse of the financial system. All of which begs the question: why is our financial system so fragile and vulnerable that it needs government support so often? For a generation of economists who have risen to prominence since 2008, these events have defined not only how they view financial instability, but financial markets more broadly. Leveraged brings together these voices to take stock of what we have learned about the costs and causes of financial fragility and to offer a new canonical framework for understanding it. Their message: the origins of financial instability in modern economies run deeper than the technical debates around banking regulation, countercyclical capital buffers, or living wills for financial institutions. Leveraged offers a fundamentally new picture of how financial institutions and societies coexist, for better or worse. The essays here mark a new starting point for research in financial economics. As we muddle through the effects of a second financial crisis in this young century, Leveraged provides a road map and a research agenda for the future.

Deleveraging

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (855 download)

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Book Synopsis Deleveraging by : Romain Bouis

Download or read book Deleveraging written by Romain Bouis and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781498338691
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (386 download)

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Book Synopsis Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts by :

Download or read book Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Balance sheet recessions have been a drag on activity after the Global Financial Crisis, underscoring the important role of balance sheet adjustment for resuming sustained growth. In this paper we examine private sector deleveraging experiences across 36 advanced and emerging economies countries since 1960. We consider the common features and divergent experiences of deleveraging episodes across countries, and analyze empirically the impact of different aspects of deleveraging during the bust phase of leverage cycles on subsequent medium-term growth. The results suggest that larger and quicker unwinding of non-financial sector debt overhangs is associated with sizable medium-term output gains, and that policies should focus on facilitating up-front balance sheet adjustment.--Abstract.

Household Leverage and the Recession

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484374983
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Household Leverage and the Recession by : Callum Jones

Download or read book Household Leverage and the Recession written by Callum Jones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-30 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate and partially challenge the ‘household leverage’ view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where liquidity constraints amplify the response of consumption and employment to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit limits explain 40 percent of the differential rise and fall of employment across states, but a small fraction of the aggregate employment decline in 2008-2010. Nevertheless, since household deleveraging was gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery.

Endgame

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118004574
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis Endgame by : John Mauldin

Download or read book Endgame written by John Mauldin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-03-08 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greece isn't the only country drowning in debt. The Debt Supercycle—when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis—is affecting developed countries around the world, including the United States. For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good—restructure the debt or reduce it through austerity measures. Endgame details the Debt Supercycle and the sovereign debt crisis, and shows that, while there are no good choices, the worst choice would be to ignore the deleveraging resulting from the credit crisis. The book: Reveals why the world economy is in for an extended period of sluggish growth, high unemployment, and volatile markets punctuated by persistent recessions Reviews global markets, trends in population, government policies, and currencies Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices. Endgame provides a framework for making those choices.

The Impact of Public Policy on Consumer Credit

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461514150
Total Pages : 340 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (615 download)

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Book Synopsis The Impact of Public Policy on Consumer Credit by : Thomas A. Durkin

Download or read book The Impact of Public Policy on Consumer Credit written by Thomas A. Durkin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As both the twenty-first century and the new millennium opened and the old eras passed into history, individuals and organizations throughout the world advanced their listings of the most significant people and events in their respective specialties. Possibly more important, the tum of the clock and calendar also offered these same observers a good reason to glance into the crystal ball. Presumably, the past is of greatest interest to most people when it permits better understanding of the present, and maybe even limited insight into the outlook. In keeping with the reflective mood of the time, the staff and friends of the Credit Research Center (CRC) at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business noted that the beginning of the new millennium also marked the beginning of the second quarter-century of the Center's existence. The Center began at the Krannert Graduate School of Management at Purdue University in 1974 and moved to the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University in 1997. The silver anniversary of its founding offered the occasion for creating more than another listing of significant past accomplishments and milestones. Rather, it offered the opportunity and, indeed, a mandate for CRC as an academic research center, to undertake a retrospective and future look into the status of research questions pertaining to consumer credit markets. For this reason, the Center organized a research conference which was held in Washington, D. C.

The Costs of Macroprudential Deleveraging in a Liquidity Trap

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513546805
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis The Costs of Macroprudential Deleveraging in a Liquidity Trap by : Mr.Jiaqian Chen

Download or read book The Costs of Macroprudential Deleveraging in a Liquidity Trap written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-12 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effects of various borrower-based macroprudential tools in a New Keynesian environment where both real and nominal interest rates are low. Our model features long-term debt, housing transaction costs and a zero-lower bound constraint on policy rates. We find that the long-term costs, in terms of forgone consumption, of all the macroprudential tools we consider are moderate. Even so, the short-term costs differ dramatically between alternative tools. Specifically, a loan-to-value tightening is more than twice as contractionary compared to loan-to-income tightening when debt is high and monetary policy cannot accommodate.

Between Debt and the Devil

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Author :
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691175985
Total Pages : 330 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Between Debt and the Devil by : Adair Turner

Download or read book Between Debt and the Devil written by Adair Turner and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-02 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why our addiction to debt caused the global financial crisis and is the root of our financial woes Adair Turner became chairman of Britain's Financial Services Authority just as the global financial crisis struck in 2008, and he played a leading role in redesigning global financial regulation. In this eye-opening book, he sets the record straight about what really caused the crisis. It didn’t happen because banks are too big to fail—our addiction to private debt is to blame. Between Debt and the Devil challenges the belief that we need credit growth to fuel economic growth, and that rising debt is okay as long as inflation remains low. In fact, most credit is not needed for economic growth—but it drives real estate booms and busts and leads to financial crisis and depression. Turner explains why public policy needs to manage the growth and allocation of credit creation, and why debt needs to be taxed as a form of economic pollution. Banks need far more capital, real estate lending must be restricted, and we need to tackle inequality and mitigate the relentless rise of real estate prices. Turner also debunks the big myth about fiat money—the erroneous notion that printing money will lead to harmful inflation. To escape the mess created by past policy errors, we sometimes need to monetize government debt and finance fiscal deficits with central-bank money. Between Debt and the Devil shows why we need to reject the assumptions that private credit is essential to growth and fiat money is inevitably dangerous. Each has its advantages, and each creates risks that public policy must consciously balance.