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Currencies Capital Flows And Crises
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Book Synopsis Currencies, Capital Flows and Crises by : John T. Harvey
Download or read book Currencies, Capital Flows and Crises written by John T. Harvey and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-01-13 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Breaking from conventional wisdom, this book provides an explanation of exchange rates based on the premise that it is financial capital flows and not international trade that represents the driving force behind currency movements. John T. Harvey combines analyses rooted in the scholarly traditions of John Maynard Keynes and Thorstein Veblen with that of modern psychology to produce a set of new theories to explain international monetary economics, including not only exchange rates but also world financial crises. In the book, the traditional approach is reviewed and critiqued and the alternative is then built by studying the psychology of the market and balance of payments questions. The central model has at its core Keynes’ analysis of the macroeconomy and it assumes neither full employment nor balanced trade over the short or long run. Market participants’ mental model, which they use to forecast future exchange rate movements, is specified and integrated into the explanation. A separate but related discussion of currency crises shows that three distinct tension points emerge in booming economies, any one of which can break and signal the collapse. Each of the models is compared to post-Bretton Woods history and the reader is shown exactly how various shifts and adjustments on the graphs can explain the dollar’s ups and downs and the Mexican (1994) and Asian (1987) crises.
Book Synopsis Capital Flows and Crises by : Barry J. Eichengreen
Download or read book Capital Flows and Crises written by Barry J. Eichengreen and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An analysis of the connections between capital flows and financial crises as well as between capital flows and economic growth.
Book Synopsis Capital Flows and Financial Crises by : Miles Kahler
Download or read book Capital Flows and Financial Crises written by Miles Kahler and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-05 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capital flows to the developing economies have long displayed a boom-and-bust pattern. Rarely has the cycle turned as abruptly as it did in the 1990s, however: surges in lending were followed by the Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95 and the sudden collapse of currencies in Asia in 1997. This volume maps a new and uncertain financial landscape, one in which volatile private capital flows and fragile banking systems produce sudden reversals of fortune for governments and economies. This environment creates dilemmas for both national policymakers who confront the "mixed blessing" of capital inflows and the international institutions that manage the recurrent crises.The authors—leading economists and political scientists—examine private capital flows and their consequences in Latin America, Pacific Asia, and East Europe, placing current cycles of lending in historical perspective. National governments have used a variety of strategies to deal with capital-account instability. The authors evaluate those responses, prescribe new alternatives, and consider whether the new circumstances require novel international policies.
Book Synopsis International Money Flows and Currency Crises by : Istvan Gyongyossy
Download or read book International Money Flows and Currency Crises written by Istvan Gyongyossy and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author had already become involved with the subject of this book when President Nixon suspended the convertibility of the dollar on August 15, 1971. This declaration was equivalent to an official admission of the previously evident failure of the inter national monetary system established in Bretton Woods after long and difficult negotiations. Although the real reasons for this failure are much deeper and more complex, the immediate cause was the tremendous outjlow of money from the United States to Europe and Japan. Never before had economic history recorded a currency movement of such magnitude, although during the periods preceding the devaluation of the French franc and the re valuation of the Deutsche Mark (Le. , by the end of 1968 and mostly in 1969), and particularly at the beginning of 1971, the in ternational flow of money grew to such huge proportions as to alm ost traumatize the economic and financial circles of developed capitalist countries. These economic and financial circles correctly foresaw that the ever growing and hardly controllable volume of currency flow could seriously endanger the already precarious balance of the international financial system and perhaps even upset it. This brief analysis, in contrast to many other predictions of cur rency developments, holds true for a longer period as well.
Book Synopsis Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets by : Sebastian Edwards
Download or read book Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-02-15 with total page 783 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.
Book Synopsis Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows and Currency Crises by : Shang-Jin Wei
Download or read book Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows and Currency Crises written by Shang-Jin Wei and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Corruption affects the composition of capital inflows in a way that may raise the likelihood of a currency crisis.
Book Synopsis Capital Mobility, Exchange Rates, and Economic Crises by : George Fane
Download or read book Capital Mobility, Exchange Rates, and Economic Crises written by George Fane and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If flexible exchange rates are not adopted, central banks should at least avoid the widespread practice of trying to sterilise the monetary effects of capital flows." "The author argues that the implementation of this plan will be a far more effective way of enhancing financial stability than controlling international capital flows, or trying to force private lenders to make new loans to countries that suffer crises."--BOOK JACKET.
Book Synopsis Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature by : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Download or read book Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.
Book Synopsis Short-Term Capital Flows and Economic Crises by : Stephany Griffith-Jones
Download or read book Short-Term Capital Flows and Economic Crises written by Stephany Griffith-Jones and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2001-02-01 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The currency crises that engulfed East Asian economies in 1997 and Mexico in 1994 - and their high development costs - raise a serious concern about the net benefits for developing countries of large flows of potentially reversible short-term international capital. Written by senior policy-makers and academics, the contributions to this volume examine in depth the macroeconomic and other policy dilemmas confronting public authorities in the emerging economies as they deal with short-term capital movements, especially in the period before the outbreak of these crises. The studies are based on comparative case studies of key emerging economies. Valuable insights are also derived from contrasts between the East Asian, Latin American, African, and European experiences, between the financial and real effects of financial flows, and between private and public responsibilities in managing financial markets. The great value of the chapters in this volume is that they analytically identify the weaknesses in both domestic and international capital market regimes. The recommendations derived from this analysis apply to the development of financial markets in developing countries, the monitoring and regulation of mutual funds in source countries, and the future development of international capital markets. They will make an important contribution both to the discussion of national policies and of a new international financial architechture.
Book Synopsis The 90s' Currency Crises by : Thomas Meyer
Download or read book The 90s' Currency Crises written by Thomas Meyer and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2000-06-15 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: When on June 2nd 1997 Thailand devalued its currency, the stage was set was the most severe and virulent currency crisis of that decade. The sudden reversal of capital flows depleted economic wealth and social cohesion in many East Asian countries, hitherto perveived to belong to the Asian Miracle. Shockwaves of the crisis were felt in most emerging markets, even those outside the region, and reached mature markets when, for instance, the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management nearly collapsed. In face of these enormous costs, this paper analyses the possibilities and boundaries of attempts to either reduce the likeliness of respective financial shocks or, when unavoidable, lower the costs of managing these crises. On the ground of the state-of-the-art models of currency crises it is examined which domestic or international factors contributed most to the observed outcome. The guiding question is if either moral hazard considerations, in the form of governmental guarantees and alike, or approaches of multiple equilibria are more suited to serve as an explanation. Moreover, this paper illuminates the significance of the original sin hypothesis which states that emerging markets are constrained when trying to borrow abroad in domestic currency or, even when trying at home, to borrow long-term. Although it is acknowledged that all these factors are valid simultaniously, superior importance in the following parts is given on the multiple equilibria approach. The main part of the paper discusses the most influencial reform proposals of academics and institutions such as the IMF or the Group of 22. Approaches for a new financial architecture are divided into issues of the exchange-rate regime, public and private liquidity, and the institutional framework. These recommandations include questions of dollarization; an international lender of last resort; insurance agencies and credit facilities; capital controls; improved regulation and transparency; as well as the addidition of collective action clauses and alike to international bond contracts. They are assessed according to the criteria developed before, especially with regard to the approaches of moral hazard, multiple equilibria, and original sin. Taking into account that any grand scheme is rather unlikely to be realized on short notice, the conclusions concentrate on moderest reform proposals which can be pursued by emerging countries indiviually or with the assistance [...]
Book Synopsis Output Response to Currency Crises by : Deepak Mishra
Download or read book Output Response to Currency Crises written by Deepak Mishra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-11-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the behavior of output during currency crises using a sample of 195 crisis episodes in 91 developing countries during 1970-98. It finds that more than two-fifths of the crises in the sample were expansionary, and that output contraction was greater in large and more developed economies than in small and less developed economies. Currency crises have not been any more contractionary in the 1990s than in the previous two decades. Countries that traded less with the rest of the world, that had a relatively open capital account, and where crises were preceded by large capital inflows were more likely to be associated with contraction during crises. The contraction was more pronounced if trade competitors devalued, oil prices rose during the crisis, and postcrisis period was marked by tight monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy.
Book Synopsis Capital Flows and the Twin Crises by : Mr.Ilan Goldfajn
Download or read book Capital Flows and the Twin Crises written by Mr.Ilan Goldfajn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a model that focuses on the interaction of liquidity creation by financial intermediaries with capital flows and exchange rate collapses. The intermediaries’ role of transforming maturities is shown to result in larger movements of capital and a higher probability of crisis. These movements resemble the observed cycle in capital flows: large inflows, crisis and abrupt outflows. The model highlights how adverse productivity and international interest rate shocks may trigger a sudden outflow of capital and an exchange collapse. The initial shock is magnified by the behavior of individual foreign investors linked through their deposits in the intermediaries. The expectation of an eventual exchange rate crisis links investors’ behavior even further.
Book Synopsis Currency and Banking Crises by : Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Download or read book Currency and Banking Crises written by Graciela Laura Kaminsky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
Book Synopsis Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows, and Currency Crises by : Shang-Jin Wei
Download or read book Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows, and Currency Crises written by Shang-Jin Wei and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Corruption affects the composition of capital inflows in a way that may raise the likelihood of a currency crisis.Crony capitalism and international creditors' self-fulfilling expectations are often suggested as rival explanations for currency crises. A possible link between the two has not been explored.Wei shows one channel through which crony capitalism can increase the chance of a currency/financial crisis by altering the composition of capital inflows.Using data on bilateral foreign direct investment and bilateral bank loans, Wei finds clear evidence that in corrupt countries the composition of capital inflows is relatively light in foreign direct investment.Earlier studies indicated that a country with a capital inflow structure is more likely to run into a currency crisis down the road (partly through international creditors' self-fulfilling expectations).Therefore, crony capitalism, through its effect on the composition of a country's capital inflows, makes the country more vulnerable to currency crises brought about by self-fulfilling expectations. Corruption may also weaken domestic financial supervision, with a subsequent deterioration in the quality in banks' and firms' balance sheets.This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the connection between corruption and international capital flows. This study was supported in part by a grant from the OECD Development Center. The author may be contacted at [email protected].
Book Synopsis The 90's Currency Crisis - Lessons for the Financial Landscape by : Thomas Meyer
Download or read book The 90's Currency Crisis - Lessons for the Financial Landscape written by Thomas Meyer and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2012-08-06 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Diplomarbeit aus dem Jahr 2000 im Fachbereich VWL - Finanzwissenschaft, Note: 1, Freie Universität Berlin, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: When on June 2nd 1997 Thailand devalued its currency, the stage was set was the most severe and virulent currency crisis of that decade. The sudden reversal of capital flows depleted economic wealth and social cohesion in many East Asian countries, hitherto perveived to belong to the Asian Miracle. Shockwaves of the crisis were felt in most emerging markets, even those outside the region, and reached mature markets when, for instance, the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management nearly collapsed. In face of these enormous costs, this paper analyses the possibilities and boundaries of attempts to either reduce the likeliness of respective financial shocks or, when unavoidable, lower the costs of managing these crises. On the ground of the state-of-the-art models of currency crises it is examined which domestic or international factors contributed most to the observed outcome. The guiding question is if either moral hazard considerations, in the form of governmental guarantees and alike, or approaches of multiple equilibria are more suited to serve as an explanation. Moreover, this paper illuminates the significance of the original sin hypothesis which states that emerging markets are constrained when trying to borrow abroad in domestic currency or, even when trying at home, to borrow long-term. Although it is acknowledged that all these factors are valid simultaniously, superior importance in the following parts is given on the multiple equilibria approach.
Download or read book Currency Crises written by Paul Krugman and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is no universally accepted definition of a currency crisis, but most would agree that they all involve one key element: investors fleeing a currency en masse out of fear that it might be devalued, in turn fueling the very devaluation they anticipated. Although such crises—the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, the speculations on European currencies in the early 1990s, and the ensuing Mexican, South American, and Asian crises—have played a central role in world affairs and continue to occur at an alarming rate, many questions about their causes and effects remain to be answered. In this wide-ranging volume, some of the best minds in economics focus on the historical and theoretical aspects of currency crises to investigate three fundamental issues: What drives currency crises? How should government behavior be modeled? And what are the actual consequences to the real economy? Reflecting the latest thinking on the subject, this offering from the NBER will serve as a useful basis for further debate on the theory and practice of speculative attacks, as well as a valuable resource as new crises loom.
Book Synopsis Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies by : Sebastian Edwards
Download or read book Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-02-15 with total page 699 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some scholars argue that the free movement of capital across borders enhances welfare; others claim it represents a clear peril, especially for emerging nations. In Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies, an esteemed group of contributors examines both the advantages and the pitfalls of restricting capital mobility in these emerging nations. In the aftermath of the East Asian currency crises of 1997, the authors consider mechanisms that eight countries have used to control capital inflows and evaluate their effectiveness in altering the maturity of the resulting external debt and reducing macroeconomic vulnerability. This volume is essential reading for all those interested in emerging nations and the costs and benefits of restricting international capital flows.
