Corporate Decision Making In The Presence Of Political Uncertainty

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Corporate Decision-Making in the Presence of Political Uncertainty

Author : William Hankins
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Corporate Decision-Making in the Presence of Political Uncertainty by : William Hankins

Download or read book Corporate Decision-Making in the Presence of Political Uncertainty written by William Hankins and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a quarterly panel of U.S. corporations over the period 1985 - 2014 we show that corporate managers respond to political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty shocks in different ways. We proxy for political uncertainty using the Partisan Conflict Index and employ a prevalent empirical macroeconomic methodology to construct structural shocks that are orthogonal to shocks captured by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Following a political uncertainty shock, corporations increase cash but do not adjust investment. Alternatively, following an economic policy uncertainty shock, firms appear to draw on cash and reduce capital spending to increase R&D spending.

Essays in Decision Making Under Uncertainty and the Political Economy of Institutions

Author : Esteban Jose Mendez Chacon
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (114 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays in Decision Making Under Uncertainty and the Political Economy of Institutions by : Esteban Jose Mendez Chacon

Download or read book Essays in Decision Making Under Uncertainty and the Political Economy of Institutions written by Esteban Jose Mendez Chacon and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of two lines of research. The first line focuses on decision making under uncertainty. Specifically, I analyze the nature of risk preferences in life-insurance choices, and I examine adverse selection and moral hazard in private-healthcare markets in a context where the government provides universal healthcare. The second line focuses on the political economy of institutions, and I study the impact of a multinational company on the economic development of its host country during and after its tenure. In Chapter 1, I estimate a structural model of risk preferences from the choice of insured amount in life-insurance contracts. The literature investigating life-insurance purchases has mostly focused on survey data to estimate how demand for insurance depends on demographic and socioeconomic factors, leaving aside the task of estimating an underlying model of decision making that generates this demand. Using proprietary data on life-insurance choices, I estimate a model of risky choice to explain households' decisions. My results indicate that, in addition to standard risk aversion (decreasing marginal utility for wealth), including decision weights that might differ from the actual probabilities improves the fit of the model. These weights can be interpreted as a combination of state-dependent utility and probability distortions. Moreover, I find support for the existence of heterogeneity in preferences. Women are more risk averse than men, and the decision weights vary depending on gender and age. In Chapter 2, we investigate adverse selection and moral hazard in private healthcare in markets where the government provides universal healthcare. We use proprietary data on health-insurance choices and medical expenditures to examine asymmetric information in this institutional setting. We disentangle adverse selection and moral hazard by leveraging variation in copays and deductibles implemented by the insurance company, and the fact that, for a sample of customers, the insured amount was exogenously assigned, shutting down the adverse selection channel. We find evidence for the presence of asymmetric information, both in the form of adverse selection and moral hazard. Moreover, we develop a model that incorporates sources of heterogeneity that could potentially explain selection in this institutional setting, namely risk aversion, risk type, concern for health, and taste for convenience services offered in the private healthcare sector. In Chapter 3, we analyze the impact of large-scale FDI on economic development by studying the case of the United Fruit Company (UFCo) in Costa Rica from 1889 to 1984. We implement a geographic regression discontinuity design that exploits a quasi-random assignment of land, and census data geo-referenced at the census-block level for 1973, 1984, 2000 and 2011. These allow us to identify the company's effect during its tenure, and after it stopped production. We find that former "UFCo lands" have had higher living standards and better economic outcomes than counterfactual areas without the company's presence, and that convergence is slow. These findings are validated using nighttime lights data. Detailed historical data suggest that the mechanisms behind our results are.

Banking and Finance

Author : Razali Haron
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 178984682X
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (898 download)

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Book Synopsis Banking and Finance by : Razali Haron

Download or read book Banking and Finance written by Razali Haron and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-12-23 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The banking and finance industry plays a significant role in the economy of a nation. As such, continuous research and up-to-date feeds are necessary for it to stay competitive and resilient. Due to its revolving and dynamic nature as well as its significance and interlinkages with other industries, a well-functioning banking and finance system is vital in safeguarding the interest of all stakeholders. Banking and Finance covers a wide range of essential topics highlighting major issues related to banking and finance. The book is rich with empirical evidence, scientific researches, best practices, and recommendations, making it a compact yet handy reference for readers, especially those who are in the field of banking and finance.

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Author : John Kay
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 1324004789
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by : John Kay

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy

Author : Alberto Alesina
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262510943
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy by : Alberto Alesina

Download or read book Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy written by Alberto Alesina and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines how electoral laws, the timing of election, the ideological orientation of governments, and the nature of competition between political parties influence unemployment, economic growth, inflation, and monetary and fiscal policy. The book presents both a thorough overview of the theoretical literature and a vast amount of empirical evidence.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Author : Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309290236
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by : Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Information Processing and Accounting Standards

Author : Joseph Olorunfemi Akande
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031648692
Total Pages : 263 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (316 download)

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Book Synopsis Information Processing and Accounting Standards by : Joseph Olorunfemi Akande

Download or read book Information Processing and Accounting Standards written by Joseph Olorunfemi Akande and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Completing the Forecast

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council

Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

The Sage Handbook of Organizational Research Methods

Author : Professor David Buchanan
Publisher : SAGE Publications Ltd
ISBN 13 : 1446246051
Total Pages : 777 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (462 download)

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Book Synopsis The Sage Handbook of Organizational Research Methods by : Professor David Buchanan

Download or read book The Sage Handbook of Organizational Research Methods written by Professor David Buchanan and published by SAGE Publications Ltd. This book was released on 2009-05-01 with total page 777 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The SAGE Handbook of Organizational Research Methods provides a rich resource for organizational researchers, locating the technical aspects of organizational research in the wider context of the relevant personal, epistemological, theoretical, historical, ethical, and political issues. David Buchanan and Alan Bryman have gathered together many of the world's leading writers on theory, method, and analysis in organizational research and have made this the most comprehensive and cutting-edge volume in this ever-growing field.

Strategy as Practice

Author : Gerry Johnson
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521862930
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (218 download)

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Book Synopsis Strategy as Practice by : Gerry Johnson

Download or read book Strategy as Practice written by Gerry Johnson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-08-02 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an analysis of what managers actually do in relation to the development of strategy in organisations.

Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty

Author : George G. Szpiro
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231550979
Total Pages : 413 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty by : George G. Szpiro

Download or read book Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty written by George G. Szpiro and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-01-07 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally. In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century’s interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought.

Nonrubber Footwear

Author : United States Tariff Commission
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 118 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Nonrubber Footwear by : United States Tariff Commission

Download or read book Nonrubber Footwear written by United States Tariff Commission and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment

Author : Robert S. Pindyck
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment by : Robert S. Pindyck

Download or read book Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.

Hybrid Political Order and the Politics of Uncertainty

Author : Nora Stel
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 042978581X
Total Pages : 373 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (297 download)

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Book Synopsis Hybrid Political Order and the Politics of Uncertainty by : Nora Stel

Download or read book Hybrid Political Order and the Politics of Uncertainty written by Nora Stel and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-06-04 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lebanon hosts the highest number of refugees per capita worldwide and is central to European policies of outsourcing migration management. Hybrid Political Order and the Politics of Uncertainty is the first book to critically and comprehensively explore the parallels between the country’s engagement with the recent Syrian refugee influx and the more protracted Palestinian presence. Drawing on fieldwork, qualitative case-studies, and critical policy analysis, it questions the dominant idea that the haphazardness, inconsistency, and fragmentation of refugee governance are only the result of forced displacement or host state fragility and the related capacity problems. It demonstrates that the endemic ambiguity that determines refugee governance also results from a lack of political will to create coherent and comprehensive rules of engagement to address refugee ‘crises.’ Building on emerging literatures in the fields of critical refugee studies, hybrid governance, and ignorance studies, it proposes an innovative conceptual framework to capture the spatial, temporal, and procedural dimensions of the uncertainty that refugees face and to tease out the strategic components of the reproduction and extension of such informality, liminality, and exceptionalism. In developing the notion of a ‘politics of uncertainty,’ ambiguity is explored as a component of a governmentality that enables the control, exploitation, and expulsion of refugees. Introduction Chapter of this book is available for free in PDF format as Open Access from the individual product page at www.routledge.com. It has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Place Attachment

Author : Lynne C. Manzo
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000258041
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Place Attachment by : Lynne C. Manzo

Download or read book Place Attachment written by Lynne C. Manzo and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-22 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following on from the ground-breaking first edition, which received the 2014 EDRA Achievement Award, this fully updated text includes new chapters on current issues in the built environment, such as GIS and mapping, climate change, and qualitative approaches. Place attachments are powerful emotional bonds that form between people and their physical surroundings. They inform our sense of identity, create meaning in our lives, facilitate community, and influence action. Place attachments have bearing on such diverse issues as rootedness and belonging, placemaking and displacement, mobility and migration, intergroup conflict, civic engagement, social housing and urban redevelopment, natural resource management, and global climate change. In this multidisciplinary book, Manzo and Devine-Wright draw together the latest thinking by leading scholars from around the globe, including contributions from scholars such as Daniel Williams, Mindy Fullilove, Randy Hester, and David Seamon, to capture significant advancements in three main areas: theory, methods, and applications. Over the course of fifteen chapters, using a wide range of conceptual and applied methods, the authors critically review and challenge contemporary knowledge, identify significant advances, and point to areas for future research. This important volume offers the most current understandings about place attachment, a critical concept for the environmental social sciences and placemaking professions.