Climate Change Uncertainty And Decision Making

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Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Climate Change, Uncertainty and Decision-Making

Author : Gregory Michael Paoli
Publisher : Institute for Risk Research, University of Waterloo
ISBN 13 : 9780969674733
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (747 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Change, Uncertainty and Decision-Making by : Gregory Michael Paoli

Download or read book Climate Change, Uncertainty and Decision-Making written by Gregory Michael Paoli and published by Institute for Risk Research, University of Waterloo. This book was released on 1994 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change

Author : Todd Schenk
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317272633
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (172 download)

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Book Synopsis Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change by : Todd Schenk

Download or read book Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change written by Todd Schenk and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-08-15 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many of the challenges that decision-makers grapple with in relation to climate change are governance related. Planning and decision-making is evolving in ambiguous institutional environments, in which many key issues remain unresolved, including relationships between different actors; funding arrangements; and the sources and procedures for vetting data. These issues are particularly acute at this juncture, as climate adaptation moves from broad planning processes to the management of infrastructure systems. Concrete decisions must be made. Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change draws on case studies of three coastal cities situated within very different governance regimes: neo-corporatist Rotterdam, neo-pluralist Boston and semi-authoritarian Singapore. The book examines how infrastructure managers and other stakeholders grappling with complex and uncertain climate risks are likely to make project-level decisions in practice, and how more effective decision-making can be supported. The differences across governance regimes are currently unaccounted for in adaptation planning, but are crucial as best practices are devised. These lessons are also applicable to infrastructure planning and decision-making in other contexts. This book will be of great interest to scholars of climate change and environmental policy and governance, particularly in the context of infrastructure management.

Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design

Author : Patrick A. Ray
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464804788
Total Pages : 149 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design by : Patrick A. Ray

Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Communicating Climate Change Information for Decision-Making

Author : Silvia Serrao-Neumann
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319746693
Total Pages : 222 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Communicating Climate Change Information for Decision-Making by : Silvia Serrao-Neumann

Download or read book Communicating Climate Change Information for Decision-Making written by Silvia Serrao-Neumann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-03-20 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides important insight on a range of issues focused on three themes; what new climate change information is being developed, how that knowledge is communicated and how it can be usefully applied across international, regional and local scales. There is increasing international investment and interest to develop and communicate updated climate change information to promote effective action. As change accelerates and planetary boundaries are crossed this information becomes particularly relevant to guide decisions and support both proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies. Developing new information addresses innovations in producing interdisciplinary climate change knowledge and overcoming issues of data quality, access and availability. This book examines effective information systems to guide decision-making for immediate and future action. Cases studies in developed and developing countries illustrate how climate change information promotes immediate and future actions across a range of sectors.

Climate Change and Variability, Uncertainty and Decision Making

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 155 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Change and Variability, Uncertainty and Decision Making by :

Download or read book Climate Change and Variability, Uncertainty and Decision Making written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Completing the Forecast

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council

Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

The Politics of Climate Change and Uncertainty in India

Author : Lyla Mehta
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000531538
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis The Politics of Climate Change and Uncertainty in India by : Lyla Mehta

Download or read book The Politics of Climate Change and Uncertainty in India written by Lyla Mehta and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-12-24 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together diverse perspectives concerning uncertainty and climate change in India. Uncertainty is a key factor shaping climate and environmental policy at international, national and local levels. Climate change and events such as cyclones, floods, droughts and changing rainfall patterns create uncertainties that planners, resource managers and local populations are regularly confronted with. In this context, uncertainty has emerged as a "wicked problem" for scientists and policymakers, resulting in highly debated and disputed decision-making. The book focuses on India, one of the most climatically vulnerable countries in the world, where there are stark socio-economic inequalities in addition to diverse geographic and climatic settings. Based on empirical research, it covers case studies from coastal Mumbai to dryland Kutch and the Sundarbans delta in West Bengal. These localities offer ecological contrasts, rural–urban diversity, varied exposure to different climate events, and diverse state and official responses. The book unpacks the diverse discourses, practices and politics of uncertainty and demonstrates profound differences through which the "above", "middle" and "below" understand and experience climate change and uncertainty. It also makes a case for bringing together diverse knowledges and approaches to understand and embrace climate-related uncertainties in order to facilitate transformative change. Appealing to a broad professional and student audience, the book draws on wide-ranging theoretical and conceptual approaches from climate science, historical analysis, science, technology and society studies, development studies and environmental studies. By looking at the intersection between local and diverse understandings of climate change and uncertainty with politics, culture, history and ecology, the book argues for plural and socially just ways to tackle climate change in India and beyond. The Open Access version of this book, available at http://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781003257585, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Author : Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309290236
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by : Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Climate Risk in Africa

Author : Declan Conway
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030611604
Total Pages : 186 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Risk in Africa by : Declan Conway

Download or read book Climate Risk in Africa written by Declan Conway and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-01-19 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book highlights the complexities around making adaptation decisions and building resilience in the face of climate risk. It is based on experiences in sub-Saharan Africa through the Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) applied research programme. It begins by dealing with underlying principles and structures designed to facilitate effective engagement about climate risk, including the robustness of information and the construction of knowledge through co-production. Chapters then move on to explore examples of using climate information to inform adaptation and resilience through early warning, river basin development, urban planning and rural livelihoods based in a variety of contexts. These insights inform new ways to promote action in policy and praxis through the blending of knowledge from multiple disciplines, including climate science that provides understanding of future climate risk and the social science of response through adaptation. The book will be of interest to advanced undergraduate students and postgraduate students, researchers, policy makers and practitioners in geography, environment, international development and related disciplines.

Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making"

Download Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2,

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309179858
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making" by : National Research Council

Download or read book Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making" written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2007-02-23 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report reviews the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's new draft assessment product on characterizing and communicating uncertainty information for climate change decision making, one of 21 climate change assessment products that the program is developing to meet the requirements of the 1990 Global Change Research Act. Although the draft assessment is effective in discussing methods of characterizing uncertainty, it falls short in several ways. It is written for researchers involved in assessment efforts and will likely be of use to them, but does not address other key audiences, particularly policymakers, decision-makers, and members of the media and general public. In addition, it does not assess the full range of "best practice approaches" for characterizing, incorporating, and communicating uncertainty. These weaknesses were due in part to a change in the prospectus after the process had begun to include new target audiences and a different scope of work. It will take a substantial revision of the current draft or production of a companion document, both requiring additional authors, to address these issues.

Climate Change in the Media

Author : James Painter
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0857733850
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (577 download)

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Book Synopsis Climate Change in the Media by : James Painter

Download or read book Climate Change in the Media written by James Painter and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2013-08-19 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scientists and politicians are increasingly using the language of risk to describe the climate change challenge. Some researchers have argued that stressing the 'risks' posed by climate change rather than the 'uncertainties' can create a more helpful context for policy makers and a stronger response from the public. However, understanding the concepts of risk and uncertainty - and how to communicate them - is a hotly debated issue. In this book, James Painter analyses how the international media present these and other narratives surrounding climate change. He focuses on the coverage of reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and of the melting ice of the Arctic Sea, and includes six countries: Australia, France, India, Norway, the UK and the USA.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Learning about Climate Change

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (898 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Learning about Climate Change by :

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Learning about Climate Change written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making

Author : Jerzy A. Filar
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441911308
Total Pages : 347 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making by : Jerzy A. Filar

Download or read book Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making written by Jerzy A. Filar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-05-03 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 21st century promises to be an era dominated by international response to c- tain global environmental challenges such as climate change, depleting biodiversity and biocapacity as well as general atmospheric, water and soil pollution problems. Consequently, Environmental decision making (EDM) is a socially important ?eld of development for Operations Research and Management Science (OR/MS). - certainty is an important feature of these decision problems and it intervenes at very different time and space scales. The Handbook on “Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making” provides a guided tour of selected methods and tools that OR/MS offer to deal with these issues. Below, we brie?y introduce, peer reviewed, chapters of this handbook and the topics that are treated by the invited authors. The ?rst chapter is a general introduction to the challenges of environmental decision making, the use of OR/MS techniques and a range of tools that are used to deal with uncertainty in this domain.

Urban Climates

Author : T. R. Oke
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108179363
Total Pages : 549 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (81 download)

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Book Synopsis Urban Climates by : T. R. Oke

Download or read book Urban Climates written by T. R. Oke and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-09-14 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Urban Climates is the first full synthesis of modern scientific and applied research on urban climates. The book begins with an outline of what constitutes an urban ecosystem. It develops a comprehensive terminology for the subject using scale and surface classification as key constructs. It explains the physical principles governing the creation of distinct urban climates, such as airflow around buildings, the heat island, precipitation modification and air pollution, and it then illustrates how this knowledge can be applied to moderate the undesirable consequences of urban development and help create more sustainable and resilient cities. With urban climate science now a fully-fledged field, this timely book fulfills the need to bring together the disparate parts of climate research on cities into a coherent framework. It is an ideal resource for students and researchers in fields such as climatology, urban hydrology, air quality, environmental engineering and urban design.

Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309185319
Total Pages : 347 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change by : National Research Council

Download or read book Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-12-07 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global climate change is one of America's most significant long-term policy challenges. Human activity-especially the use of fossil fuels, industrial processes, livestock production, waste disposal, and land use change-is affecting global average temperatures, snow and ice cover, sea-level, ocean acidity, growing seasons and precipitation patterns, ecosystems, and human health. Climate-related decisions are being carried out by almost every agency of the federal government, as well as many state and local government leaders and agencies, businesses and individual citizens. Decision makers must contend with the availability and quality of information, the efficacy of proposed solutions, the unanticipated consequences resulting from decisions, the challenge of implementing chosen actions, and must consider how to sustain the action over time and respond to new information. Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change, a volume in the America's Climate Choices series, describes and assesses different activities, products, strategies, and tools for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and execute effective, integrated responses. It discusses who is making decisions (on the local, state, and national levels), who should be providing information to make decisions, and how that information should be provided. It covers all levels of decision making, including international, state, and individual decision making. While most existing research has focused on the physical aspect of climate change, Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change employs theory and case study to describe the efforts undertaken so far, and to guide the development of future decision-making resources. Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change offers much-needed guidance to those creating public policy and assists in implementing that policy. The information presented in this book will be invaluable to the research community, especially social scientists studying climate change; practitioners of decision-making assistance, including advocacy organizations, non-profits, and government agencies; and college-level teachers and students.

Adapting to an Uncertain Climate

Author : Tiago Capela Lourenço
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3319048767
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Adapting to an Uncertain Climate by : Tiago Capela Lourenço

Download or read book Adapting to an Uncertain Climate written by Tiago Capela Lourenço and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-04-14 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring these new approaches is also a challenge for those involved in climate research and development of adaptation policy. The book provides a dozen real-life examples of adaptation decision making in the form of case studies: · Water supply management in Portugal, England and Wales and Hungary · Flooding, including flood risk in Ireland, coastal flooding and erosion in Southwest France, and flood management in Australia’s Hutt River region · Transport and utilities, including the Austrian Federal railway system, public transit in Dresden, and Québec hydro-electric power · Report examining communication of large numbers of climate scenarios in Dutch climate adaptation workshops.