Between Probability And Certainty

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Between Probability and Certainty

Author : Martin Smith
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0191071633
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Between Probability and Certainty by : Martin Smith

Download or read book Between Probability and Certainty written by Martin Smith and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-17 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Martin Smith explores a question central to philosophy—namely, what does it take for a belief to be justified or rational? According to a widespread view, whether one has justification for believing a proposition is determined by how probable that proposition is, given one's evidence. In the present book this view is rejected and replaced with another: in order for one to have justification for believing a proposition, one's evidence must normically support it—roughly, one's evidence must make the falsity of that proposition abnormal in the sense of calling for special, independent explanation. This conception of justification bears upon a range of topics in epistemology and beyond, including the relation between justification and knowledge, the force of statistical evidence, the problem of scepticism, the lottery and preface paradoxes, the viability of multiple premise closure, the internalist/externalist debate, the psychology of human reasoning, and the relation between belief and degrees of belief. Ultimately, this way of looking at justification guides us to a new, unfamiliar picture of how we should respond to our evidence and manage our own fallibility. This picture is developed here.

Between Probability and Certainty

Author : Martin Smith
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198755333
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (987 download)

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Book Synopsis Between Probability and Certainty by : Martin Smith

Download or read book Between Probability and Certainty written by Martin Smith and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Martin Smith explores a question central to philosophy--namely, what does it take for a belief to be justified or rational? According to a widespread view, whether one has justification for believing a proposition is determined by how probable that proposition is, given one's evidence. In the present book this view is rejected and replaced with another: in order for one to have justification for believing a proposition, one's evidence must normically support it--roughly, one's evidence must make the falsity of that proposition abnormal in the sense of calling for special, independent explanation. This conception of justification bears upon a range of topics in epistemology and beyond, including the relation between justification and knowledge, the force of statistical evidence, the problem of scepticism, the lottery and preface paradoxes, the viability of multiple premise closure, the internalist/externalist debate, the psychology of human reasoning, and the relation between belief and degrees of belief. Ultimately, this way of looking at justification guides us to a new, unfamiliar picture of how we should respond to our evidence and manage our own fallibility. This picture is developed here.

Between Probability and Certainty

Author : Martin Smith
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (945 download)

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Book Synopsis Between Probability and Certainty by : Martin Smith

Download or read book Between Probability and Certainty written by Martin Smith and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Between Certainty and Uncertainty

Author : Ludomir M. Laudański
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642256961
Total Pages : 314 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (422 download)

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Book Synopsis Between Certainty and Uncertainty by : Ludomir M. Laudański

Download or read book Between Certainty and Uncertainty written by Ludomir M. Laudański and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-10-14 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: „Between Certainty & Uncertainty” is a one-of–a-kind short course on statistics for students, engineers and researchers. It is a fascinating introduction to statistics and probability with notes on historical origins and 80 illustrative numerical examples organized in the five units: · Chapter 1 Descriptive Statistics: Compressing small samples, basic averages - mean and variance, their main properties including God’s proof; linear transformations and z-scored statistics . · Chapter 2 Grouped data: Udny Yule’s concept of qualitative and quantitative variables. Grouping these two kinds of data. Graphical tools. Combinatorial rules and qualitative variables. Designing frequency histogram. Direct and coded evaluation of quantitative data. Significance of percentiles. · Chapter 3 Regression and correlation: Geometrical distance and equivalent distances in two orthogonal directions as a prerequisite to the concept of two regression lines. Misleading in interpreting two regression lines. Derivation of the two regression lines. Was Hubble right? Houbolt’s cloud. What in fact measures the correlation coefficient? · Chapter 4 Binomial distribution: Middle ages origins of the binomials; figurate numbers and combinatorial rules. Pascal’s Arithmetical Triangle. Bernoulli’s or Poisson Trials? John Arbuthnot curing binomials. How Newton taught S. Pepys probability. Jacob Bernoulli’s Weak Law of Large Numbers and others. · Chapter 5 Normal distribution and binomial heritage – Tables of the normal distribution. Abraham de Moivre and the second theorem of de Moivre-Laplace. · Chapter 1 Descriptive Statistics: Compressing small samples, basic averages - mean and variance, their main properties including God’s proof; linear transformations and z-scored statistics . · Chapter 2 Grouped data: Udny Yule’s concept of qualitative and quantitative variables. Grouping these two kinds of data. Graphical tools. Combinatorial rules and qualitative variables. Designing frequency histogram. Direct and coded evaluation of quantitative data. Significance of percentiles. · Chapter 3 Regression and correlation: Geometrical distance and equivalent distances in two orthogonal directions as a prerequisite to the concept of two regression lines. Misleading in interpreting two regression lines. Derivation of the two regression lines. Was Hubble right? Houbolt’s cloud. What in fact measures the correlation coefficient? · Chapter 4 Binomial distribution: Middle ages origins of the binomials; figurate numbers and combinatorial rules. Pascal’s Arithmetical Triangle. Bernoulli’s or Poisson Trials? John Arbuthnot curing binomials. How Newton taught S. Pepys probability. Jacob Bernoulli’s Weak Law of Large Numbers and others. · Chapter 5 Normal distribution and binomial heritage – Tables of the normal distribution. Abraham de Moivre and the second theorem of de Moivre-Laplace. · Chapter 5 Normal distribution and binomial heritage – Tables of the normal distribution. Abraham de Moivre and the second theorem of de Moivre-Laplace.

Probability and Certainty in Seventeenth-century England

Author : Barbara J. Shapiro
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780691053790
Total Pages : 347 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (537 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability and Certainty in Seventeenth-century England by : Barbara J. Shapiro

Download or read book Probability and Certainty in Seventeenth-century England written by Barbara J. Shapiro and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Description for this book, Probability and Certainty in Seventeenth-Century England: A Study of the Relationships Between National Science, Religion, History, Law, and Literature, will be forthcoming.

The Search for Certainty

Author : Krzysztof Burdzy
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814273716
Total Pages : 270 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (142 download)

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Book Synopsis The Search for Certainty by : Krzysztof Burdzy

Download or read book The Search for Certainty written by Krzysztof Burdzy and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume represents a radical departure from the current philosophical duopoly in the area of foundations of probability, that is, the frequency and subjective theories. One of the main new ideas is a set of scientific laws of probability. The new laws are simple, intuitive and, last but not least, they agree well with the contents of current textbooks on probability. Another major new claim is that the OC frequency statisticsOCO has nothing in common with the OC frequency philosophy of probability, OCO contrary to popular belief. Similarly, contrary to the general perception, the OC Bayesian statisticsOCO shares nothing in common with the OC subjective philosophy of probability.OCO The book is non-partisan on the scientific side OCo it is supportive of both frequency statistics and Bayesian statistics. On the other hand, it contains well-documented and thoroughly-explained criticisms of the frequency and subjective philosophies of probability. Short reviews of other philosophical theories of probability and basic mathematical methods of probability and statistics are incorporated. The book includes substantial chapters on decision theory and teaching probability, and it is easily accessible to the general audience

The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and the Law

Author : Eyal Zamir
Publisher : Oxford Handbooks
ISBN 13 : 0199945470
Total Pages : 841 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (999 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and the Law by : Eyal Zamir

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and the Law written by Eyal Zamir and published by Oxford Handbooks. This book was released on 2014 with total page 841 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and Law' brings together leading scholars of law, psychology, and economics to provide an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of this field of research, including its strengths and limitations as well as a forecast of its future development. Its twenty-nine chapters are organized into four parts.

Head First Statistics

Author : Dawn Griffiths
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 059680086X
Total Pages : 721 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (968 download)

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Book Synopsis Head First Statistics by : Dawn Griffiths

Download or read book Head First Statistics written by Dawn Griffiths and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2008-08-26 with total page 721 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive introduction to statistics that teaches the fundamentals with real-life scenarios, and covers histograms, quartiles, probability, Bayes' theorem, predictions, approximations, random samples, and related topics.

Uncertainty

Author : William Briggs
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319397567
Total Pages : 258 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : William Briggs

Download or read book Uncertainty written by William Briggs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-15 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.

In Search of Certainty

Author : Mark Burgess
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 1491923377
Total Pages : 473 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (919 download)

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Book Synopsis In Search of Certainty by : Mark Burgess

Download or read book In Search of Certainty written by Mark Burgess and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2015-04-09 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quite soon, the world’s information infrastructure is going to reach a level of scale and complexity that will force scientists and engineers to approach it in an entirely new way. The familiar notions of command and control are being thwarted by realities of a faster, denser world of communication where choice, variety, and indeterminism rule. The myth of the machine that does exactly what we tell it has come to an end. What makes us think we can rely on all this technology? What keeps it together today, and how might it work tomorrow? Will we know how to build the next generation—or will we be lulled into a stupor of dependence brought about by its conveniences? In this book, Mark Burgess focuses on the impact of computers and information on our modern infrastructure by taking you from the roots of science to the principles behind system operation and design. To shape the future of technology, we need to understand how it works—or else what we don’t understand will end up shaping us. This book explores this subject in three parts: Part I, Stability: describes the fundamentals of predictability, and why we have to give up the idea of control in its classical meaning Part II, Certainty: describes the science of what we can know, when we don’t control everything, and how we make the best of life with only imperfect information Part III, Promises: explains how the concepts of stability and certainty may be combined to approach information infrastructure as a new kind of virtual material, restoring a continuity to human-computer systems so that society can rely on them.

The End of Certainty

Author : Ilya Prigogine
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 0684837056
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (848 download)

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Book Synopsis The End of Certainty by : Ilya Prigogine

Download or read book The End of Certainty written by Ilya Prigogine and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 1997-08-17 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nobel Laureate Ilya Prigogine discusses the irreversibility of time and his findings impact on the laws of physics.

Everyday Sociology Reader

Author : Karen Sternheimer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780393419481
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Everyday Sociology Reader by : Karen Sternheimer

Download or read book Everyday Sociology Reader written by Karen Sternheimer and published by . This book was released on 2020-04-15 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Innovative readings and blog posts show how sociology can help us understand everyday life.

Introduction to Probability

Author : David F. Anderson
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 110824498X
Total Pages : 447 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (82 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Probability by : David F. Anderson

Download or read book Introduction to Probability written by David F. Anderson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-02 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.

Probability and Statistics

Author : Michael J. Evans
Publisher : Macmillan
ISBN 13 : 9780716747420
Total Pages : 704 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (474 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability and Statistics by : Michael J. Evans

Download or read book Probability and Statistics written by Michael J. Evans and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 2004 with total page 704 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlike traditional introductory math/stat textbooks, Probability and Statistics: The Science of Uncertainty brings a modern flavor based on incorporating the computer to the course and an integrated approach to inference. From the start the book integrates simulations into its theoretical coverage, and emphasizes the use of computer-powered computation throughout.* Math and science majors with just one year of calculus can use this text and experience a refreshing blend of applications and theory that goes beyond merely mastering the technicalities. They'll get a thorough grounding in probability theory, and go beyond that to the theory of statistical inference and its applications. An integrated approach to inference is presented that includes the frequency approach as well as Bayesian methodology. Bayesian inference is developed as a logical extension of likelihood methods. A separate chapter is devoted to the important topic of model checking and this is applied in the context of the standard applied statistical techniques. Examples of data analyses using real-world data are presented throughout the text. A final chapter introduces a number of the most important stochastic process models using elementary methods. *Note: An appendix in the book contains Minitab code for more involved computations. The code can be used by students as templates for their own calculations. If a software package like Minitab is used with the course then no programming is required by the students.

Probability Theory

Author : Nikolai Dokuchaev
Publisher : World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN 13 : 9814678058
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (146 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability Theory by : Nikolai Dokuchaev

Download or read book Probability Theory written by Nikolai Dokuchaev and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2015-06-12 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a systematic, self-sufficient and yet short presentation of the mainstream topics on introductory Probability Theory with some selected topics from Mathematical Statistics. It is suitable for a 10- to 14-week course for second- or third-year undergraduate students in Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Finance, or Economics, who have completed some introductory course in Calculus. There is a sufficient number of problems and solutions to cover weekly tutorials.

After Certainty

Author : Robert Pasnau
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192521934
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (925 download)

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Book Synopsis After Certainty by : Robert Pasnau

Download or read book After Certainty written by Robert Pasnau and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-10 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No part of philosophy is as disconnected from its history as is epistemology. After Certainty offers a reconstruction of that history, understood as a series of changing expectations about the cognitive ideal that beings such as us might hope to achieve in a world such as this. The story begins with Aristotle and then looks at how his epistemic program was developed through later antiquity and into the Middle Ages, before being dramatically reformulated in the seventeenth century. In watching these debates unfold over the centuries, one sees why epistemology has traditionally been embedded within a much larger sphere of concerns about human nature and the reality of the world we live in. It ultimately becomes clear why epistemology today has become a much narrower and specialized field, concerned with the conditions under which it is true to say, that someone knows something. Based on a series of lectures given at Oxford University, Robert Pasnau's book ranges widely over the history of philosophy, and examines in some detail the rise of science as an autonomous discipline. Ultimately Pasnau argues that we may have no good reasons to suppose ourselves capable of achieving even the most minimal standards for knowledge, and the final chapter concludes with a discussion of faith and hope.

Fooled by Randomness

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 1588367673
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (883 download)

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Book Synopsis Fooled by Randomness by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book Fooled by Randomness written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House. This book was released on 2008-10-14 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year