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An Empirical Analysis Of Bond Recovery Rates
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Book Synopsis An Empirical Analysis of Bond Recovery Rates by : Daniel M. Covitz
Download or read book An Empirical Analysis of Bond Recovery Rates written by Daniel M. Covitz and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A frictionless, structural view of default has the unrealistic implication that recovery rates on bonds, measured at default, should be close to 100 percent. This suggests that standard "frictions" such as default delays, corporate-valuation jumps, and bankruptcy costs may be important drivers of recovery rates. A structural view also suggests the existence of nonlinearities in the empirical relationship between recovery rates and their determinants. We explore these implications empirically and find direct evidence of jumps, and also evidence of the predicted nonlinearities. In particular, recovery rates increase as economic conditions improve from low levels, but decrease as economic conditions become robust. This suggests that improving economic conditions tend to boost firm values, but firms may tend to default during particularly robust times only when they have experienced large, negative shocks"--Abstract.
Book Synopsis Systematic Risk in Recovery Rates by : Klaus Duellmann
Download or read book Systematic Risk in Recovery Rates written by Klaus Duellmann and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents an analytical and empirical analysis of a parsimonious model framework that accounts for a dependence of bond and bank loan recoveries on systematic risk. We extend the single risk factor model by assuming that the recovery rates also depend on this risk factor and follow a logit?normal distribution. The results are compared with those of two related models, suggested in Frye (2000) and Pykhtin (2003), which pose the assumption of a normal and a log-normal distribution of recovery rates. We provide estimators of the parameters of the asset value process and their standard errors in closed form. For the parameters of the recovery rate distribution we also provide closed-form solutions of a feasible maximum-likelihood estimator for the three models. The model parameters are estimated from default frequencies and recovery rates that were extracted from a bond and loan database of Standard&Poor's. We estimate the correlation between recovery rates and the systematic risk factor and determine the impact on economic capital. Furthermore, the impact of measuring recovery rates from market prices at default and from prices at emergence from default is analysed. As a robustness check for the empirical results of the maximum-likelihood estimation method we also employ a method-of-moments. Our empirical results indicate that systematic risk is a major factor influencing recovery rates. The calculation of a default?weighted recovery rate without further consideration of this factor may lead to downward-biased estimates of economic capital. Recovery rates measured from market prices at default are generally lower and more sensitive to changes of the systematic risk factor than are recovery rates determined at emergence from default. The choice between these two measurement methods has a stronger impact on the expected recovery rates and the economic capital than introducing a dependency of recovery rates on systematic risk in the single risk factor model.
Book Synopsis Systematic Risk in Recovery Rates by : Klaus Düllmann
Download or read book Systematic Risk in Recovery Rates written by Klaus Düllmann and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Recovery Ratios and Survival Times for Corporate Bonds by : Ivailo Izvorski
Download or read book Recovery Ratios and Survival Times for Corporate Bonds written by Ivailo Izvorski and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the determinants of the recovery ratios and survival times (time until default) for U. S. corporate bonds. We show that seniority, the type of industry in which the firm operates, and the type of restructuring attempted after default are the major determinants of the cross-sectional distribution of individual bond recovery ratios. On an industry level, physical asset obsolescence, industry growth, and industry concentration are the most important factors. We also analyze survival times for corporate bonds and find that initial time to maturity and the general economic conditions at maturity and default explain a large fraction of the cross-sectional variation of survival times.
Book Synopsis Recovery Ratios and Survival Times for Corporate Bonds by : Ivailo Izvorski
Download or read book Recovery Ratios and Survival Times for Corporate Bonds written by Ivailo Izvorski and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-07 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the determinants of the recovery ratios and survival times (time until default) for U. S. corporate bonds. We show that seniority, the type of industry in which the firm operates, and the type of restructuring attempted after default are the major determinants of the cross-sectional distribution of individual bond recovery ratios. On an industry level, physical asset obsolescence, industry growth, and industry concentration are the most important factors. We also analyze survival times for corporate bonds and find that initial time to maturity and the general economic conditions at maturity and default explain a large fraction of the cross-sectional variation of survival times.
Book Synopsis An Empirical Analysis of Bond Recovery Rates by : Daniel M. Covitz
Download or read book An Empirical Analysis of Bond Recovery Rates written by Daniel M. Covitz and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A frictionless, structural view of default has the unrealistic implication that recovery rates on bonds, measured at default, should be close to 100 percent. This suggests that standard "frictions" such as default delays, corporate-valuation jumps, and bankruptcy costs may be important drivers of recovery rates. A structural view also suggests the existence of nonlinearities in the empirical relationship between recovery rates and their determinants. We explore these implications empirically and find direct evidence of jumps, and also evidence of the predicted nonlinearities. In particular, recovery rates increase as economic conditions improve from low levels, but decrease as economic conditions become robust. This suggests that improving economic conditions tend to boost firm values, but firms may tend to default during particularly robust times only when they have experienced large, negative shocks"--Abstract.
Book Synopsis Advances in Credit Risk Modelling and Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction by : Stewart Jones
Download or read book Advances in Credit Risk Modelling and Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction written by Stewart Jones and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-09-25 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A thorough compendium of credit risk modelling approaches, including several new techniques that extend the horizons of future research and practice. Models and techniques are illustrated with empirical examples and are accompanied by a careful explanation of model derivation issues. An ideal resource for academics, practitioners and regulators.
Download or read book Recovery Risk written by Edward I. Altman and published by Bloomberg Press. This book was released on 2005-01-01 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this ground-breaking new title, Risk Books brings together three prominent editors to provide a timely reference text on loss given default (LGD) measurement and management and the requirements of the Basel II Capital Accord.
Book Synopsis Are Credit Spreads and Interest Rates Co-integrated? by : Ulrich Pape
Download or read book Are Credit Spreads and Interest Rates Co-integrated? written by Ulrich Pape and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Credit Risk written by Darrell Duffie and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.
Book Synopsis Debt's Dominion by : David A. Skeel Jr.
Download or read book Debt's Dominion written by David A. Skeel Jr. and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bankruptcy in America, in stark contrast to its status in most other countries, typically signifies not a debtor's last gasp but an opportunity to catch one's breath and recoup. Why has the nation's legal system evolved to allow both corporate and individual debtors greater control over their fate than imaginable elsewhere? Masterfully probing the political dynamics behind this question, David Skeel here provides the first complete account of the remarkable journey American bankruptcy law has taken from its beginnings in 1800, when Congress lifted the country's first bankruptcy code right out of English law, to the present day. Skeel shows that the confluence of three forces that emerged over many years--an organized creditor lobby, pro-debtor ideological currents, and an increasingly powerful bankruptcy bar--explains the distinctive contours of American bankruptcy law. Their interplay, he argues in clear, inviting prose, has seen efforts to legislate bankruptcy become a compelling battle royale between bankers and lawyers--one in which the bankers recently seem to have gained the upper hand. Skeel demonstrates, for example, that a fiercely divided bankruptcy commission and the 1994 Republican takeover of Congress have yielded the recent, ideologically charged battles over consumer bankruptcy. The uniqueness of American bankruptcy has often been noted, but it has never been explained. As different as twenty-first century America is from the horse-and-buggy era origins of our bankruptcy laws, Skeel shows that the same political factors continue to shape our unique response to financial distress.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Credit Derivatives by : Alexander Lipton
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Credit Derivatives written by Alexander Lipton and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2013-01-17 with total page 828 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the late 1990s, the spectacular growth of a secondary market for credit through derivatives has been matched by the emergence of mathematical modelling analysing the credit risk embedded in these contracts. This book aims to provide a broad and deep overview of this modelling, covering statistical analysis and techniques, modelling of default of both single and multiple entities, counterparty risk, Gaussian and non-Gaussian modelling, and securitisation. Both reduced-form and firm-value models for the default of single entities are considered in detail, with extensive discussion of both their theoretical underpinnings and practical usage in pricing and risk. For multiple entity modelling, the now notorious Gaussian copula is discussed with analysis of its shortcomings, as well as a wide range of alternative approaches including multivariate extensions to both firm-value and reduced form models, and continuous-time Markov chains. One important case of multiple entities modelling - counterparty risk in credit derivatives - is further explored in two dedicated chapters. Alternative non-Gaussian approaches to modelling are also discussed, including extreme-value theory and saddle-point approximations to deal with tail risk. Finally, the recent growth in securitisation is covered, including house price modelling and pricing models for asset-backed CDOs. The current credit crisis has brought modelling of the previously arcane credit markets into the public arena. Lipton and Rennie with their excellent team of contributors, provide a timely discussion of the mathematical modelling that underpins both credit derivatives and securitisation. Though technical in nature, the pros and cons of various approaches attempt to provide a balanced view of the role that mathematical modelling plays in the modern credit markets. This book will appeal to students and researchers in statistics, economics, and finance, as well as practitioners, credit traders, and quantitative analysts
Book Synopsis Advances in Credit Risk Modeling and Management by : Frédéric Vrins
Download or read book Advances in Credit Risk Modeling and Management written by Frédéric Vrins and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit risk remains one of the major risks faced by most financial and credit institutions. It is deeply connected to the real economy due to the systemic nature of some banks, but also because well-managed lending facilities are key for wealth creation and technological innovation. This book is a collection of innovative papers in the field of credit risk management. Besides the probability of default (PD), the major driver of credit risk is the loss given default (LGD). In spite of its central importance, LGD modeling remains largely unexplored in the academic literature. This book proposes three contributions in the field. Ye & Bellotti exploit a large private dataset featuring non-performing loans to design a beta mixture model. Their model can be used to improve recovery rate forecasts and, therefore, to enhance capital requirement mechanisms. François uses instead the price of defaultable instruments to infer the determinants of market-implied recovery rates and finds that macroeconomic and long-term issuer specific factors are the main determinants of market-implied LGDs. Cheng & Cirillo address the problem of modeling the dependency between PD and LGD using an original, urn-based statistical model. Fadina & Schmidt propose an improvement of intensity-based default models by accounting for ambiguity around both the intensity process and the recovery rate. Another topic deserving more attention is trade credit, which consists of the supplier providing credit facilities to his customers. Whereas this is likely to stimulate exchanges in general, it also magnifies credit risk. This is a difficult problem that remains largely unexplored. Kanapickiene & Spicas propose a simple but yet practical model to assess trade credit risk associated with SMEs and microenterprises operating in Lithuania. Another topical area in credit risk is counterparty risk and all other adjustments (such as liquidity and capital adjustments), known as XVA. Chataignier & Crépey propose a genetic algorithm to compress CVA and to obtain affordable incremental figures. Anagnostou & Kandhai introduce a hidden Markov model to simulate exchange rate scenarios for counterparty risk. Eventually, Boursicot et al. analyzes CoCo bonds, and find that they reduce the total cost of debt, which is positive for shareholders. In a nutshell, all the featured papers contribute to shedding light on various aspects of credit risk management that have, so far, largely remained unexplored.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 by : Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Download or read book Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Book Synopsis The Structured Credit Handbook by : Arvind Rajan
Download or read book The Structured Credit Handbook written by Arvind Rajan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-03-31 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Structured Credit Handbook is a comprehensive introduction to all types of credit-linked financial instruments. This book provides state-of-the-art primers on single tranche collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), credit derivatives (such as credit default swaps and swaptions), and iBoxx indexes. Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, The Structured Credit Handbook covers all aspects of the synthetic arbitrage CDO market, including new instruments such as CDO2. Readers will also gain a firm understanding of the investment rationale, risks, and rewards associated with CDO investments through this valuable resource. The exploding use of credit derivatives and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) has transformed the world of credit, creating an $18 trillion market almost overnight and resulting in innumerable investment and career opportunities globally. The Structured Credit Handbook provides the reader with a comprehensive and clear roadmap to today's new credit landscape. The full spectrum of structured credit products, from single-name CDS to CDOs, is explained in a simple, clear fashion that is free from the financial jargon and mathematical complexity which characterize many other derivative texts. The handbook begins with an in-depth explanation of the building blocks of the structured credit markets, single-name default swaps and indexes, and it culminates with complex products such as credit options, synthetic tranches, CDOs based on bank loans and asset-backed securities, and CDO-squareds. Written by experienced practitioners who have participated in this market since its infancy, each of the thirteen chapters introduces and analyzes a new product and explains its practical applications. A rich set of real-life case studies illustrate the application of each product in a concrete market setting. The book may be used in a semester-long course on structured credit as part of a business or finance curriculum. Whether you are a market professional, a university student or faculty member, or simply a financially savvy layperson, look no further for an up-to-date and thorough introduction to this rapidly growing and exciting field. Dr. Arvind Rajan, Managing Director, Citigroup Global Markets, is engaged in proprietary trading of Structured Credit products, and until recently, was global head of Structured Credit Research and Strategy at Citigroup. Glen McDermott (New York, NY) is Director of Fixed Income Sales and the former head of CDO Research at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Ratul Roy is head of CDO Strategy for Citigroup Global Markets and has spent the prior nine years in structuring or analyzing CDOs and other structured credit products.
Book Synopsis The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility by : Sharjil M. Haque
Download or read book The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility written by Sharjil M. Haque and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-05 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the impact of the COVID-19 recession on capital structure of publicly listed U.S. firms. Our estimates suggest leverage (Net Debt/Asset) decreased by 5.3 percentage points from the pre-shock mean of 19.6 percent, while debt maturity increased moderately. This de-leveraging effect is stronger for firms exposed to significant rollover risk, while firms whose businesses were most vulnerable to social distancing did not reduce leverage. We rationalize our evidence through a structural model of firm value that shows lower expected growth rate and higher volatility of cash flows following COVID-19 reduced optimal levels of corporate leverage. Model-implied optimal leverage indicates firms which did not de-lever became over-leveraged. We find default probability deteriorates most in large, over-leveraged firms and those that were stressed pre-COVID. Additional stress tests predict value of these firms will be less than one standard deviation away from default if cash flows decline by 20 percent.
Book Synopsis What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts? by : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Download or read book What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts? written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42
