A New Framework To Estimate The Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded In Options Prices

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A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices

Author : Mr.Kevin C. Cheng
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455202150
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices by : Mr.Kevin C. Cheng

Download or read book A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices written by Mr.Kevin C. Cheng and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset classes. The contributions are twofold: first, on the technical side, the paper proposes useful transformation/restrictions to Bahra’s original formulation for achieving economically sensible outcomes. In addition, the paper compares the statistical properties of the estimated RNPs among major asset classes, including commodities, the S&P 500, the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the US 10-year Treasury Note. Finally, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the multi-lognormal approach outperforms the double-lognormal approach.

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Asset Price Risk

Author : Mr.Shaun K. Roache
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475544626
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Unconventional Monetary Policy and Asset Price Risk by : Mr.Shaun K. Roache

Download or read book Unconventional Monetary Policy and Asset Price Risk written by Mr.Shaun K. Roache and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-30 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effects of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) events in the United States on asset price risk using risk-neutral density functions estimated from options prices. Based on an event study including a key exchange rate, an equity index, and five commodities, we find that “tail risk” diminishes in the immediate aftermath of UMP events, particularly downside left tail risk. We also find that QE1 and QE3 had stronger effects than QE2. We conclude that UMP events that serve to ease policies can help to bolster market confidence in times of high uncertainty.

Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries

Author : Carlos Caceres
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475530161
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries by : Carlos Caceres

Download or read book Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries written by Carlos Caceres and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-30 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices—that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending—in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to hydrocarbon-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is noted that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices.

Risk Management Strategies in Public-Private Partnerships

Author : Obicci, Peter Adoko
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1522525041
Total Pages : 363 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (225 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Management Strategies in Public-Private Partnerships by : Obicci, Peter Adoko

Download or read book Risk Management Strategies in Public-Private Partnerships written by Obicci, Peter Adoko and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2017-03-03 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Governments around the globe are facing a new framework of service delivery as public-private partnerships become more prevalent. Characterized as an innovative tool for change, this area of socio-economic development is transforming the world economy. Risk Management Strategies in Public-Private Partnerships is an essential reference source for the latest scholarly research on recent developments on the relationships between public agencies and private sectors, and frameworks for effectively managing risk factors. Featuring extensive coverage on a wide variety of topics and perspectives such as service delivery, sustainability, and contractual design, this publication is ideally designed for policy makers, students, and professionals seeking current research on ways to manage problems and challenges in contractual partnerships.

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2010

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463904924
Total Pages : 12 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)

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Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, December 2010 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, December 2010 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Q&A in this issue features seven questions about emerging markets and the financial crisis (by Ayhan Kose); the research summaries are "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle" (by Cemile Sancak, Ricardo Velloso, and Jing Xing) and "Banking Crisis Resolution: Was this Time Different?" (by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia). The issue also lists the contents of the second issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 58 Number 2; visiting scholars at the IMF during October-December 2010; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Position Notes.

Testing the Stability of Implied Probability Density Functions

Author : Robert R. Bliss
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Testing the Stability of Implied Probability Density Functions by : Robert R. Bliss

Download or read book Testing the Stability of Implied Probability Density Functions written by Robert R. Bliss and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Recovering the Probability Density Function of Asset Prices Using GARCH as Diffusion Approximations

Author : Fabio Fornari
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (6 download)

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Book Synopsis Recovering the Probability Density Function of Asset Prices Using GARCH as Diffusion Approximations by : Fabio Fornari

Download or read book Recovering the Probability Density Function of Asset Prices Using GARCH as Diffusion Approximations written by Fabio Fornari and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Financial Models with Levy Processes and Volatility Clustering

Author : Svetlozar T. Rachev
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470937262
Total Pages : 316 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (79 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Models with Levy Processes and Volatility Clustering by : Svetlozar T. Rachev

Download or read book Financial Models with Levy Processes and Volatility Clustering written by Svetlozar T. Rachev and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-02-08 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An in-depth guide to understanding probability distributions and financial modeling for the purposes of investment management In Financial Models with Lévy Processes and Volatility Clustering, the expert author team provides a framework to model the behavior of stock returns in both a univariate and a multivariate setting, providing you with practical applications to option pricing and portfolio management. They also explain the reasons for working with non-normal distribution in financial modeling and the best methodologies for employing it. The book's framework includes the basics of probability distributions and explains the alpha-stable distribution and the tempered stable distribution. The authors also explore discrete time option pricing models, beginning with the classical normal model with volatility clustering to more recent models that consider both volatility clustering and heavy tails. Reviews the basics of probability distributions Analyzes a continuous time option pricing model (the so-called exponential Lévy model) Defines a discrete time model with volatility clustering and how to price options using Monte Carlo methods Studies two multivariate settings that are suitable to explain joint extreme events Financial Models with Lévy Processes and Volatility Clustering is a thorough guide to classical probability distribution methods and brand new methodologies for financial modeling.

Implied Exchange Rate Distributions

Author : José Campa
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Implied Exchange Rate Distributions by : José Campa

Download or read book Implied Exchange Rate Distributions written by José Campa and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a rich new data set of option prices on the dollar-mark, dollar-yen, and key EMS cross-rates to extract the entire risk-neutral probability density function (pdf) over horizons of one and three months. We compare three alternative smoothing methods--cubic splines, an implied binomial tree (trimmed and untrimmed), and a mixture of lognormals--for transforming option data into the pdf. Despite their methodological ifferences, the three approaches lead to a similar pdf distinct from the lognormal benchmark, and usually characterized by skewness and leptokurtosis. We then document a striking positive correlation between skewness in these pdfs and the spot rate. The stronger a currency the more expectations are skewed towards a further appreciation of that currency. We interpret this finding as a rejection that these exchange rates evolve as a martingale, or that they follow a credible target zone, explicit or implicit. Instead, this this positive correlation is consistent with target zones with endogenous realignment risk. We discuss two interpretations of our results on skewness: when a currency is stronger, the actual probability of further large appreciation is higher, or because of risk, such states are valued more highly.

Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis

Author : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475557531
Total Pages : 93 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis by : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst

Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.

Working Paper Series

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (54 download)

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Book Synopsis Working Paper Series by :

Download or read book Working Paper Series written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Nonparametric Econometric Methods

Author : Qi Li
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1849506248
Total Pages : 576 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (495 download)

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Book Synopsis Nonparametric Econometric Methods by : Qi Li

Download or read book Nonparametric Econometric Methods written by Qi Li and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2009-12-04 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains a selection of papers presented initially at the 7th Annual Advances in Econometrics Conference held on the LSU campus in Baton Rouge, Louisiana during November 14-16, 2008. This work is suitable for those who wish to familiarize themselves with nonparametric methodology.

Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion

Author : Jens Carsten Jackwerth
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (95 download)

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Book Synopsis Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion by : Jens Carsten Jackwerth

Download or read book Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion written by Jens Carsten Jackwerth and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Risk Management in Banking

Author : Joël Bessis
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118660188
Total Pages : 376 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Management in Banking by : Joël Bessis

Download or read book Risk Management in Banking written by Joël Bessis and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-04-30 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The seminal guide to risk management, streamlined andupdated Risk Management in Banking is a comprehensive referencefor the risk management industry, covering all aspects of thefield. Now in its fourth edition, this useful guide has beenupdated with the latest information on ALM, Basel 3, derivatives,liquidity analysis, market risk, structured products, credit risk,securitizations, and more. The new companion website featuresslides, worked examples, a solutions manual, and the newstreamlined, modular approach allows readers to easily find theinformation they need. Coverage includes asset liabilitymanagement, risk-based capital, value at risk, loan portfoliomanagement, capital allocation, and other vital topics, concludingwith an examination of the financial crisis through the utilisationof new views such as behavioural finance and nonlinearity ofrisk. Considered a seminal industry reference since the firstedition's release, Risk Management in Banking has beenstreamlined for easy navigation and updated to reflect the changesin the field, while remaining comprehensive and detailed inapproach and coverage. Students and professionals alike willappreciate the extended scope and expert guidance as they: Find all "need-to-know" risk management topics in a singletext Discover the latest research and the new practices Understand all aspects of risk management and bankingmanagement See the recent crises – and the lessons learned –from a new perspective Risk management is becoming increasingly vital to the bankingindustry even as it grows more complex. New developments andadvancing technology continue to push the field forward, andprofessionals need to stay up-to-date with in-depth information onthe latest practices. Risk Management in Banking provides acomprehensive reference to the most current state of the industry,with complete information and expert guidance.

Stochastic Processes

Author : Alexander Zeifman
Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3039219626
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (392 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Processes by : Alexander Zeifman

Download or read book Stochastic Processes written by Alexander Zeifman and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-12-12 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this special issue is to publish original research papers that cover recent advances in the theory and application of stochastic processes. There is especial focus on applications of stochastic processes as models of dynamic phenomena in various research areas, such as queuing theory, physics, biology, economics, medicine, reliability theory, and financial mathematics. Potential topics include, but are not limited to: Markov chains and processes; large deviations and limit theorems; random motions; stochastic biological model; reliability, availability, maintenance, inspection; queueing models; queueing network models; computational methods for stochastic models; applications to risk theory, insurance and mathematical finance.

Modeling Stochastic Volatility with Application to Stock Returns

Author : Mr.Noureddine Krichene
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451854846
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling Stochastic Volatility with Application to Stock Returns by : Mr.Noureddine Krichene

Download or read book Modeling Stochastic Volatility with Application to Stock Returns written by Mr.Noureddine Krichene and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-06-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for three stock indices. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used for estimating Bayesian parameters and filtering volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was consistent with both volatility clustering and mean reversion. Filtering showed highly volatile markets, reflecting frequent pertinent news. Diagnostics showed no model failure, although specification improvements were always possible. The model corroborated stylized findings in volatility modeling and has potential value for market participants in asset pricing and risk management, as well as for policymakers in the design of macroeconomic policies conducive to less volatile financial markets.

Options Markets

Author : George M. Constantinides
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 698 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Options Markets by : George M. Constantinides

Download or read book Options Markets written by George M. Constantinides and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2001 with total page 698 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles draws from work on derivatives from the last 25 years. The three volumes cover topics including: the theory, pricing and empirical evidence evidence on equity derivatives; fixed-income derivatives; exotics; real options; numerical methods; and risk management. The historical perspective offered by the book aims to offer fresh insight into derivatives.