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A Model Of Near Rational Exuberance
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Book Synopsis A Model of Near-rational Exuberance by : James Bullard
Download or read book A Model of Near-rational Exuberance written by James Bullard and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We study how the use of judgment or--add-factors--in forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in a standard self-referential environment. Local indeterminacy is not a requirement for existence. We construct a simple asset pricing example and find that exuberance equilibria, when they exist, can be extremely volatile relative to fundamental equilibria"--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site.
Book Synopsis Near-rational Exuberance by : James Bullard
Download or read book Near-rational Exuberance written by James Bullard and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We study how the use of judgement or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic environments. Examples include a simple asset pricing model and the New Keynesian monetary policy framework. Inclusion of judgement in forecasts can lead to self-fulfilling fluctuations, but without the requirement that the underlying rational expectations equilibrium is locally indeterminate. We suggest ways in which policymakers might avoid unintended outcomes by adjusting policy to minimize the risk of exuberance equilibria"--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site.
Book Synopsis Toward Rational Exuberance by : B. Mark Smith
Download or read book Toward Rational Exuberance written by B. Mark Smith and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 2001 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traces the evolution of popular theories of stock market behavior, showing how they have become widely accepted over time and clarifying some of those them.
Book Synopsis Rational Exuberance by : Michael J. Mandel
Download or read book Rational Exuberance written by Michael J. Mandel and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2004-05 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "BusinessWeek's" chief economist calls for a new era of aggressive growth to combat the growing economic pessimism in America.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy, Judgment and Near-rational Exuberance by : James Bullard
Download or read book Monetary Policy, Judgment and Near-rational Exuberance written by James Bullard and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We study how the use of judgment or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We examine the possibility of a new phenomenon, which we call exuberance equilibria, in the New Keynesian monetary policy framework. Inclusion of judgment in forecasts can lead to self-fulfilling fluctuations in a subset of the determinacy region. We study how policymakers can minimize the risk of exuberance equilibria"--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site.
Book Synopsis Irrational Exuberance by : Robert J. Shiller
Download or read book Irrational Exuberance written by Robert J. Shiller and published by Scribe Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No Marketing Blurb
Book Synopsis Rational Pessimism, Rational Exuberance, and Asset Pricing Models by : Ravi Bansal
Download or read book Rational Pessimism, Rational Exuberance, and Asset Pricing Models written by Ravi Bansal and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper estimates and examines the empirical plausibiltiy of asset pricing models that attempt to explain features of financial markets such as the size of the equity premium and the volatility of the stock market. In one model, the long run risks model of Bansal and Yaron (2004), low frequency movements and time varying uncertainty in aggregate consumption growth are the key channels for understanding asset prices. In another, as typified by Campbell and Cochrane (1999), habit formation, which generates time-varying risk-aversion and consequently time-variation in risk-premia, is the key channel. These models are fitted to data using simulation estimators. Both models are found to fit the data equally well at conventional significance levels, and they can track quite closely a new measure of realized annual volatility. Further scrutiny using a rich array of diagnostics suggests that the long run risk model is preferred.
Book Synopsis Irrational Exuberance by : Robert J. Shiller
Download or read book Irrational Exuberance written by Robert J. Shiller and published by Broadway. This book was released on 2001 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With a new Afterword on the current state of the stock market, the ongoing debate over the "new economy," and the larger implications of "irrational exuberance." In this controversial, hard-hitting account of today's explosive market, Robert J. Shiller, a leading expert on market volatility, evokes Alan Greenspan's infamous 1996 reference, "irrational exuberance," to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. Shiller's unconventional yet persuasive argument credits an unprecedented confluence of events with driving stocks to uncharted heights, and he analyzes the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind these levels of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. Now more relevant than ever, this analysis is both chilling and convincing-a must-read for the individual investor, the policy maker, and the investment professional.
Book Synopsis Irrational Exuberance by : Robert J. Shiller
Download or read book Irrational Exuberance written by Robert J. Shiller and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-08-16 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why the irrational exuberance of investors hasn't disappeared since the financial crisis In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008–9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets—and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity—and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.
Book Synopsis Rational Exuberance by : Meredith E. Bagby
Download or read book Rational Exuberance written by Meredith E. Bagby and published by Dutton Books. This book was released on 1998 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Generation X's most respected economic writer refutes the myths and stereotypes of her generation. CNN Financial News Network's Meredith Bagby--author of THE ANNUAL REPORT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA--examines the ways in which her generation, against the odds, is steering our economy in a new direction.
Book Synopsis Toward Rational Exuberance by : B. Mark Smith
Download or read book Toward Rational Exuberance written by B. Mark Smith and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2002-05-30 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The True History, and Dangerous Myths, of the Modern Stock Market. The stock market is big news now, influencing every aspect of the modern economy. Accepted wisdom has it that the market will provide retirement security for anyone willing to diligently save and invest. Yet many people can remember a time when the stock market was little more than a primitive insiders' game, viewed by most Americans with skepticism and suspicion. In Toward Rational Exuberance, B. Mark Smith, a professional stock trader with two decades of practical experience, tells the fascinating story of how this stunning transformation occurred. Smith traces the evolution of popular theories of stock market behavior, showing how they have become widely accepted over time. He also clarifies some of these theories -- such as the notion that the market is often susceptible to speculative "bubbles" that will inevitably burst -- and explains how they are based on faulty interpretations of market history. The central thesis of Toward Rational Exuberance is that the modern stock market is the product of a dynamic evolutionary process; it cannot be predicted by extrapolating arbitrary historical standards into the future. It is only by understanding the way the modern market has been created that today's investor can begin to understand the market itself.
Book Synopsis Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics by : Kazuo Nishimura
Download or read book Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics written by Kazuo Nishimura and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-12-03 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the state-of-the-art in non-linear dynamics and sunspots. These two topics have been the core of an international conference on instability and public policies in a globalized world, organized at Aix-Marseille School of Economics and GREQAM in honor of Jean-Michel Grandmont. He has made significant contributions on general equilibrium theory, monetary theory, learning, aggregation, non-linear dynamics and sunspots. This book assembles contributions by Jean-Michel Grandmont's colleagues, students and friends that have been influenced by his works and that are at the frontier of research in this domain today.
Book Synopsis Bounded Rationality and Behavioural Economics by : Graham Mallard
Download or read book Bounded Rationality and Behavioural Economics written by Graham Mallard and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-08-14 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economics Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon developed the concept of bounded rationality in the 1950s. This asserts that the cognitive abilities of human decision-makers are not always sufficient to find optimal solutions to complex real-life problems, leading decision-makers to find satisfactory, sub-optimal outcomes. This was a foundational component of the development of Behavioural Economics but in recent years the two fields have diverged, each with its own literature, its own approach and its own proponents. Behavioural Economics explores the areas of commonality between Economics and Psychology, in terms of its focus and its approach, whereas the bounded rationality literature largely analyses the implications of sub-optimal decision‐making through the mathematically sophisticated methodology of mainstream Economics. This book examines the nature and consequences of this divergence and questions whether this is a case of beneficial specialisation or whether it is unhelpful, potentially stunting the development of some aspects of Economics. It has been suggested that the major deficiency of Behavioural Economics is that it has failed to produce a single, widely applicable alternative to constrained optimisation. This book evaluates the extent to which this is the true and, if it is, the extent to which it is a product of the divergence between the two literatures. It also seeks to identify commonalities between the two subjects and suggests avenues of research in Economics that would benefit from a re-fusion of these two fields.
Book Synopsis Animal Spirits by : George A. Akerlof
Download or read book Animal Spirits written by George A. Akerlof and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-01 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller, the case for why government is needed to restore confidence in the economy The global financial crisis has made it painfully clear that powerful psychological forces are imperiling the wealth of nations today. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, "animal spirits" are driving financial events worldwide. In this book, acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller challenge the economic wisdom that got us into this mess, and put forward a bold new vision that will transform economics and restore prosperity. Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking by recovering the idea of animal spirits, a term John Maynard Keynes used to describe the gloom and despondence that led to the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery. Like Keynes, Akerlof and Shiller know that managing these animal spirits requires the steady hand of government—simply allowing markets to work won't do it. In rebuilding the case for a more robust, behaviorally informed Keynesianism, they detail the most pervasive effects of animal spirits in contemporary economic life—such as confidence, fear, bad faith, corruption, a concern for fairness, and the stories we tell ourselves about our economic fortunes—and show how Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution failed to account for them. Animal Spirits offers a road map for reversing the financial misfortunes besetting us today. Read it and learn how leaders can channel animal spirits—the powerful forces of human psychology that are afoot in the world economy today. In a new preface, they describe why our economic troubles may linger for some time—unless we are prepared to take further, decisive action.
Book Synopsis Essays in History by : Charles Poor Kindleberger
Download or read book Essays in History written by Charles Poor Kindleberger and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classic Kindleberger: Engaging and stimulating reading on eclectic topics in finance, economics, and the life of this captivating author
Book Synopsis The Law and Economics of Irrational Behavior by : Francesco Parisi
Download or read book The Law and Economics of Irrational Behavior written by Francesco Parisi and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 634 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of essays explores the most relevant developments at the interface of economics and psychology, giving special attention to models of irrational behavior, and draws the relevant implications of such models for the design of legal rules and institutions. The application of economic models of irrational behavior to law is especially challenging because specific departures from rational behavior differ markedly from one another. Furthermore, the analytical and deductive instruments of economic theory have to be reshaped to deal with the fragmented and heterogeneous findings of psychological research, turning towards a more experimental and inductive methodology. This volume brings together pioneering scholars in this area, along with some of the most exciting developments in the field of legal and economic theory. Areas of application include criminal law and sentencing, tort law, contract law, corporate law, and financial markets.
Download or read book Asset Pricing written by John H. Cochrane and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-04-11 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea--price equals expected discounted payoff--that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model--consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing--is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.
