Winning The Uncertainty Game

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Winning the Uncertainty Game

Author : Daniel F. Oriesek
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000289877
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Winning the Uncertainty Game by : Daniel F. Oriesek

Download or read book Winning the Uncertainty Game written by Daniel F. Oriesek and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-29 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about the challenges that emerge for organizations from an ever faster changing world. While useful at their time, several management tools, including classic strategic planning processes, will no longer suffice to address these challenges in a timely and comprehensive fashion. While individual management tools are still valid to solve specific problems, they need to be employed based on a clear understanding of what the greater challenge is and how they need to be combined and prioritized with other approaches. In order to do so, companies can apply the clarity of thinking from the military with regard to which leadership level is responsible for what and how these levels need to interact in order to produce a single aligned response to an outside opportunity or threat. Finally, the tool of business wargaming, while known for some time, proves to be an ideal approach to quickly and effectively bring all leadership levels together, align them around a common objective and lay the groundwork for effective implementation of targeted responses that will keep the organization competitive and in the game for the long run. The book offers a comprehensive introduction to business wargaming, including a historical account, a classification of different types of games and a number of specific real-world examples. This book is targeted at practicing managers dealing with the aforementioned challenges, as well as for students of business and strategy at every level.

Uncertainty in Games

Author : Greg Costikyan
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262527537
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Games by : Greg Costikyan

Download or read book Uncertainty in Games written by Greg Costikyan and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-01-30 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How uncertainty in games—from Super Mario Bros. to Rock/Paper/Scissors—engages players and shapes play experiences. In life, uncertainty surrounds us. Things that we thought were good for us turn out to be bad for us (and vice versa); people we thought we knew well behave in mysterious ways; the stock market takes a nosedive. Thanks to an inexplicable optimism, most of the time we are fairly cheerful about it all. But we do devote much effort to managing and ameliorating uncertainty. Is it any wonder, then, asks Greg Costikyan, that we have taken this aspect of our lives and transformed it culturally, making a series of elaborate constructs that subject us to uncertainty but in a fictive and nonthreatening way? That is: we create games. In this concise and entertaining book, Costikyan, an award-winning game designer, argues that games require uncertainty to hold our interest, and that the struggle to master uncertainty is central to their appeal. Game designers, he suggests, can harness the idea of uncertainty to guide their work. Costikyan explores the many sources of uncertainty in many sorts of games—from Super Mario Bros. and Dungeons & Dragons to Rock/Paper/Scissors, from Monopoly to CityVille, from FPS Deathmatch play to Chess. He describes types of uncertainty, including performative uncertainty, analytic complexity, and narrative anticipation. And he suggests ways that game designers who want to craft novel game experiences can use an understanding of game uncertainty in its many forms to improve their designs.

Winning The Game Scientists Play

Author : Carl J Sindermann
Publisher : Basic Books
ISBN 13 : 0465011624
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (65 download)

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Book Synopsis Winning The Game Scientists Play by : Carl J Sindermann

Download or read book Winning The Game Scientists Play written by Carl J Sindermann and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2008-01-04 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this inspiring book of personal insight and sound advice, veteran scientist Carl J. Sindermann gives an insider's look at the competitive world of science and reveals the best strategies for attaining prominence and success. Taking apart the many different roles scientists must play during their careers, Sindermann compares common mistakes scientists make with what the best strategists do-whether they are publishing papers, presenting data, chairing meetings, or coping with government or academic bureaucracy. In the end, he maintains, well-honed interpersonal skills, a savvy eye on one's competitors, and excellent science are the keys to a satisfying and successful career.

Outcome Uncertainty in Sporting Events

Author : Plácido Rodríguez
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1839102179
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (391 download)

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Book Synopsis Outcome Uncertainty in Sporting Events by : Plácido Rodríguez

Download or read book Outcome Uncertainty in Sporting Events written by Plácido Rodríguez and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2020-06-26 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines competitive balance and outcome uncertainty from multiple perspectives. Chapters address the topic in different sports in a range of countries, to help to understand its significance. It provides readers with important new insights into previously unexplored dimensions as well as a rich context for better understanding why fans, teams, and leagues value competitive balance. The book challenges readers to think about the topic in a broad and rigorous way, and in some cases to question widely held beliefs about how outcome uncertainty motivates competitive balance, and how sports fans actually view competitive balance.

Winning the Long Game

Author : Steven Krupp
Publisher : Hachette UK
ISBN 13 : 1610394488
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Winning the Long Game by : Steven Krupp

Download or read book Winning the Long Game written by Steven Krupp and published by Hachette UK. This book was released on 2014-12-02 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are you winning the battle but losing the war? Every leader has to deliver the goods -- make budget, meet deadlines, and deftly manage people -- to provide the inspirational fuel that keeps their business running day-in and day-out. But therein lies the danger of winning today's battle and losing the war -- that is the long game of creating sustainable value in a volatile, uncertain world that is becoming ever-more complex and ambiguous. The number one business challenge -- is winning the long game by being more strategic; developing the skills to look outside the four walls of the organization and see the world from the future back. Steven Krupp and Paul J. H. Schoemaker bridge the gap between what many see as the separate domains of strategy and leadership to show how to develop the discipline of strategic leadership in a world of growing uncertainty. Pragmatic to the core, Winning the Long Game creates vivid insights into the discipline of strategic leadership by applying it systemically through personal portraits of successful business leaders. The book profiles Elon Musk, Richard Branson, and Sara Blakely, as well as world-renowned figures like Pope Francis, Oprah Winfrey, and Nelson Mandela. What makes these strategic leaders successful is highlighted by contrasting them with others who are either mediocre or outright failures. Winning the Long Game is the must-have playbook for every leader and for any manager seeking to be become more strategic in today's topsy-turvy world.

Business Wargaming

Author : Mr Daniel F Oriesek
Publisher : Gower Publishing, Ltd.
ISBN 13 : 1409458253
Total Pages : 156 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Wargaming by : Mr Daniel F Oriesek

Download or read book Business Wargaming written by Mr Daniel F Oriesek and published by Gower Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2012-09-28 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Industry consolidation, mergers, changes to business models, the emergence of new threats all require managers to understand highly complex situations, assess risk and opportunity and make informed decisions. How can senior managers do this effectively when so often they are wrestling with brand new scenarios? One of the emerging solutions is business wargaming. Daniel F. Oriesek and Jan Oliver Schwarz provide the first comprehensive look at wargaming as a business tool in a book that explores the anatomy and success factors of a typical wargame. The authors explain how and when wargaming can be used to test strategies, plan and prepare for crises, manage change or increase your organization's ability to anticipate and adapt for the future. Creating imaginative and credible scenarios, and testing them against smart opponents who are eager to find holes and counter your strategy, allows you to learn about a plan or a new venture in the security of the conference room rather than learning the hard way when you go live. Business wargames are sophisticated but they are also very demanding in terms of time and resources. Business Wargaming: Securing Corporate Value will enable you to assess the potential value of the technique for your own organization, to understand what you will be committing to and develop an informed business case and brief for working with the organization that will facilitate the game.

Thinking in Bets

Author : Annie Duke
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0735216371
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (352 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking in Bets by : Annie Duke

Download or read book Thinking in Bets written by Annie Duke and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2019-05-07 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Winning the Right Game

Author : Ron Adner
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262546000
Total Pages : 279 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Winning the Right Game by : Ron Adner

Download or read book Winning the Right Game written by Ron Adner and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2023-01-03 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to succeed in an era of ecosystem-based disruption: strategies and tools for offense, defense, timing, and leadership in a changing competitive landscape. The basis of competition is changing. Are you prepared? Rivalry is shifting from well-defined industries to broader ecosystems: automobiles to mobility platforms; banking to fintech; television broadcasting to video streaming. Your competitors are coming from new directions and pursuing different goals from those of your familiar rivals. In this world, succeeding with the old rules can mean losing the new game. Winning the Right Game introduces the concepts, tools, and frameworks necessary to confront the threat of ecosystem disruption and to develop the strategies that will let your organization play ecosystem offense. To succeed in this world, you need to change your perspective on competition, growth, and leadership. In this book, strategy expert Ron Adner offers a new way of thinking, illustrating breakthrough ideas with compelling cases. How did a strategy of ecosystem defense save Wayfair and Spotify from being crushed by giants Amazon and Apple? How did Oprah Winfrey redraw industry boundaries to transition from television host to multimedia mogul? How did a shift to an alignment mindset enable Microsoft's cloud-based revival? Each was rooted in a new approach to competitors, partners, and timing that you can apply to your own organization. For today's leaders the difference between success and failure is no longer simply winning, but rather being sure that you are winning the right game.

Adaptability

Author : Max McKeown
Publisher : Kogan Page Publishers
ISBN 13 : 0749464607
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (494 download)

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Book Synopsis Adaptability by : Max McKeown

Download or read book Adaptability written by Max McKeown and published by Kogan Page Publishers. This book was released on 2012-04-03 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adaptability is the key human trait. The ability to adapt faster and smarter than the situation is what makes the powerful difference between adapting to cope and adapting to win. Our history is a story of adaptation and change. And in this time of brutal competition and economic uncertainty, it has never been more important to understand how to adapt successfully. In a series of powerful rules, Max McKeown explores how to increase the adaptability of you and your organization to create winning positions. Fascinating real-world examples from business, government, the military and sport bring the rules of adaptability to life - from the world s most innovative corporations to street-level creativity emerging from the slums. Adaptability is a powerful, practical and inspirational guide to success in uncertain times.

Uncertainty

Author : Jonathan Fields
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1591845661
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (918 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : Jonathan Fields

Download or read book Uncertainty written by Jonathan Fields and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jonathan Fields knows the risks-and potential power-of uncertainty. He gave up a six-figure income as a lawyer to make $12 an hour as a personal trainer. Then, married with a 3-month old baby, he signed a lease to launch a yoga center in the heart of New York City. . . the day before 9/11. But he survived, and along the way he developed a fresh approach to transforming uncertainty, risk of loss, and exposure to judgment into catalysts for innovation, creation, and achievement. In business, art, and life, creating on a world-class level demands bold action and leaps of faith in the face of great uncertainty. But that uncertainty can lead to fear, anxiety, paralysis, and destruction. It can gut creativity and stifle innovation. It can keep you from taking the risks necessary to do great work and craft a deeply-rewarding life. And it can bring companies that rely on innovation grinding to a halt. That is, unless you know how to use it to your advantage. Fields draws on leading-edge technology, cognitive science, and ancient awareness-focusing techniques in a fresh, practical, nondogmatic way. His approach enables creativity and productivity on an entirely different level and can turn the once-tortuous journey into a more enjoyable quest.

Managing the Mental Game

Author : Jeff Boss
Publisher : Tier 1 Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9780990670346
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (73 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing the Mental Game by : Jeff Boss

Download or read book Managing the Mental Game written by Jeff Boss and published by Tier 1 Publishing. This book was released on 2016-11-24 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this concise guide to mental management, executive leadership and team coach and former Navy SEAL, Jeff Boss, teaches a blend of unique mental training methodologies that will enhance your self-belief, self-confidence, and mental fortitude to help you reach new levels of success no matter what your profession is. Jeff's unique WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get) style of writing makes the science of mental toughness easy to read and relatable. With a client list that ranges from high potentials to top executives, Jeff demonstrates how to pave the way for breakthrough potential by sharing over 23 mental exercises for dealing with overwhelm. Specifically, you'll learn: 1. Why understanding the mind is the smartest thing you can do 2. Learn the 4 Mental Traps and How To Avoid Them 3. The 3 types of focus and why mastering them is fundamental to success 4. Learn how to deal with uncertainty and not by stymied by fear 5. Learn the 3 pitfalls of uncertainty so you can anticipate and avoid them 6. The truth about managing uncertainty 7. Learn the neuroscience of change 8. Become proficient in replacing negative thoughts with positive ones 9. Create more productive thinking habits by understanding thought architecture 10. 23 exercises for dealing with overwhelming pressure 11. Learn the most effective path to building mental fortitude This book is powerful-but only to the degree that you are willing to proactively put forth the focus to be the person you want to be. The lessons and techniques presented in this book are essential reading for anyone seeking greater success and peak performance, whether it be on the playing field, in business, or life in general. Whatever your personal endeavor may be, whatever challenge you may be facing, these lessons will prepare you to move forward and excel. Reach new levels of personal success and performance as you learn, practice, and apply these powerful concepts and proven techniques.

Finite and Infinite Games

Author : James Carse
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1451657293
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Finite and Infinite Games by : James Carse

Download or read book Finite and Infinite Games written by James Carse and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2011-10-11 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “There are at least two kinds of games,” states James Carse as he begins this extraordinary book. “One could be called finite; the other infinite.” Finite games are the familiar contests of everyday life; they are played in order to be won, which is when they end. But infinite games are more mysterious. Their object is not winning, but ensuring the continuation of play. The rules may change, the boundaries may change, even the participants may change—as long as the game is never allowed to come to an end. What are infinite games? How do they affect the ways we play our finite games? What are we doing when we play—finitely or infinitely? And how can infinite games affect the ways in which we live our lives? Carse explores these questions with stunning elegance, teasing out of his distinctions a universe of observation and insight, noting where and why and how we play, finitely and infinitely. He surveys our world—from the finite games of the playing field and playing board to the infinite games found in culture and religion—leaving all we think we know illuminated and transformed. Along the way, Carse finds new ways of understanding everything from how an actress portrays a role, to how we engage in sex, from the nature of evil, to the nature of science. Finite games, he shows, may offer wealth and status, power and glory. But infinite games offer something far more subtle and far grander. Carse has written a book rich in insight and aphorism. Already an international literary event, Finite and Infinite Games is certain to be argued about and celebrated for years to come. Reading it is the first step in learning to play the infinite game.

Profiting From Uncertainty

Author : Paul Schoemaker
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 0743234189
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (432 download)

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Book Synopsis Profiting From Uncertainty by : Paul Schoemaker

Download or read book Profiting From Uncertainty written by Paul Schoemaker and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2012-12-25 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity. Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty. More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can’t do without them.

Skin in the Game

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 0425284638
Total Pages : 305 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (252 download)

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Book Synopsis Skin in the Game by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Download or read book Skin in the Game written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House. This book was released on 2018-02-27 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: #1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A bold work from the author of The Black Swan that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility In his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to accept one’s own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life. As always both accessible and iconoclastic, Taleb challenges long-held beliefs about the values of those who spearhead military interventions, make financial investments, and propagate religious faiths. Among his insights: • For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing. You cannot make profits and transfer the risks to others, as bankers and large corporations do. You cannot get rich without owning your own risk and paying for your own losses. Forcing skin in the game corrects this asymmetry better than thousands of laws and regulations. • Ethical rules aren’t universal. You’re part of a group larger than you, but it’s still smaller than humanity in general. • Minorities, not majorities, run the world. The world is not run by consensus but by stubborn minorities imposing their tastes and ethics on others. • You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot. “Educated philistines” have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets. • Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find). A simple barbell can build muscle better than expensive new machines. • True religion is commitment, not just faith. How much you believe in something is manifested only by what you’re willing to risk for it. The phrase “skin in the game” is one we have often heard but rarely stopped to truly dissect. It is the backbone of risk management, but it’s also an astonishingly rich worldview that, as Taleb shows in this book, applies to all aspects of our lives. As Taleb says, “The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that’s necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster,” and “Never trust anyone who doesn’t have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them.”

Mobilizing in Uncertainty

Author : Anastasia Shesterinina
Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 1501753770
Total Pages : 166 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Mobilizing in Uncertainty by : Anastasia Shesterinina

Download or read book Mobilizing in Uncertainty written by Anastasia Shesterinina and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2021-03-15 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do ordinary people navigate the intense uncertainty of the onset of war? Different individuals mobilize in different ways—some flee, some pick up arms, and some support armed actors as civil war begins. Drawing on nearly two hundred in-depth interviews with participants and nonparticipants in the Georgian-Abkhaz war of 1992–1993, Anastasia Shesterinina explores Abkhaz mobilization decisions during that conflict. Her fresh approach underscores the uncertain nature of the first days of the war when Georgian forces had a preponderance of manpower and arms. Mobilizing in Uncertainty demonstrates, in contrast to explanations that assume individuals know the risk involved in mobilization and make decisions based on that knowledge, that the Abkhaz anticipated risk in ways that were affected by their earlier experiences and by social networks at the time of mobilization. What Shesterinina uncovers is that to make sense of the violence, Abkhaz leaders, local authority figures, and others relied on shared understandings of the conflict and their roles in it—collective conflict identities—that they had developed before the war. As appeals traveled across society, people consolidated mobilization decisions within small groups of family and friends and based their actions on whom they understood to be threatened. Their decisions shaped how the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict unfolded and how people continued to mobilize during and after the war. Through this detailed analysis of Abkhaz mobilization from prewar to postwar, Mobilizing in Uncertainty sheds light on broader processes of violence, which have lasting effects on societies marked by intergroup conflict.

The Uncertainty Game

Author : Marcelo Manucci
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis The Uncertainty Game by : Marcelo Manucci

Download or read book The Uncertainty Game written by Marcelo Manucci and published by . This book was released on 2021-03-10 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why approach uncertainty as a game?Facing the unknown like a creative act allows us to defy inertia, move from a position of victimization, and take the lead in a new destiny. The playful sense of our approach transforms frustration into a heroic act of personal growth. This book proposes a game of possibilities that allow the new to be possible in your life. It is a small book. However, it has been designed so that you will never stop reading it. You will complete it many times. It is not many pages, but you will permanently return to its pages to look for phrases, inspiration, resources, support. Each time you return, you will have the renewing experience of a new cycle. The book leads you to explore life as a board of challenges, renew the inner dialogue that locks you into mandates and narrow affirmations to recreate your moves and grow amid uncertainty.Marcelo Manucci is an international academic and consultant who has devoted nearly 20 years to researching uncertainty from different disciplines. He is a psychologist with Ph.D. in communication with postgraduate studies in Neurosciences. He works in universities in America and Europe, has written eight books in Spanish, English, and Portuguese.www.marcelomanucci.com

Principles of Uncertainty

Author : Joseph B. Kadane
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351683365
Total Pages : 525 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Principles of Uncertainty by : Joseph B. Kadane

Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied