Thinking In Bets

Download Thinking In Bets full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Thinking In Bets ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!

Thinking in Bets

Author : Annie Duke
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0735216371
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (352 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Thinking in Bets by : Annie Duke

Download or read book Thinking in Bets written by Annie Duke and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2019-05-07 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

How to Decide

Author : Annie Duke
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0593418484
Total Pages : 290 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (934 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis How to Decide by : Annie Duke

Download or read book How to Decide written by Annie Duke and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.

Little Bets

Author : Peter Sims
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1439170444
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (391 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Little Bets by : Peter Sims

Download or read book Little Bets written by Peter Sims and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2011-04-19 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “An enthusiastic, example-rich argument for innovating in a particular way—by deliberately experimenting and taking small exploratory steps in novel directions. Light, bright, and packed with tidy anecdotes” (The Wall Street Journal). What do Apple CEO Steve Jobs, comedian Chris Rock, prize-winning architect Frank Gehry, and the story developers at Pixar films all have in common? Bestselling author Peter Sims found that rather than start with a big idea or plan a whole project in advance, they make a methodical series of little bets, learning critical information from lots of little failures and from small but significant wins. Reporting on a fascinating range of research, from the psychology of creative blocks to the influential field of design thinking, Sims offers engaging and illuminating accounts of breakthrough innovators at work, and a whole new way of thinking about how to navigate uncertain situations and unleash our untapped creative powers.

Quit

Author : Annie Duke
Publisher : Noura Books
ISBN 13 : 6232423720
Total Pages : 361 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (324 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Quit by : Annie Duke

Download or read book Quit written by Annie Duke and published by Noura Books. This book was released on 2022-06-13 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Dalam berbagai situasi, kita sering kali dihadapkan dengan pilihan sulit: bertahan, berubah arah, atau bahkan berhenti (quit). Nyatanya, walau banyak pertanda tak ada guna untuk tetap bertahan, berhenti identik dengan kata gagal, sehingga tak pernah jadi pilihan. Annie Duke menawarkan strategi berbasis sains yang dapat mengasah keterampilan untuk mengetahui kapan kita harus memilih berhenti dan bagaimana cara melakukannya. Saat Anda sedang menghadapi permasalahan bisnis, karier, atau bahkan hubungan pribadi, piawai dalam memilih mana hal yang harus dipertahankan atau tidak dapat membantu Anda untuk menentukan langkah terbaik berikutnya. Hidup ini singkat. Tak sepatutnya kita membuang waktu, energi, atau uang karena terus mempertahankan keputusan yang salah."

Decide to Play Great Poker

Author : Annie Duke
Publisher : Huntington Press Inc
ISBN 13 : 1935396323
Total Pages : 464 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (353 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Decide to Play Great Poker by : Annie Duke

Download or read book Decide to Play Great Poker written by Annie Duke and published by Huntington Press Inc. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Poker is a game of table position, flop texture, players in a hand, personalities, and so much more. This book teaches you how to identify and analyze those variables, become a great strategist, and have confidence in any poker situation. Decide to Play Great Poker is written by Annie Duke, the world's most renowned woman poker player, with John Vorhaus, himself a winning poker player and prolific author.

Understanding Uncertainty

Author : Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470055472
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Understanding Uncertainty by : Dennis V. Lindley

Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.

Al Pha's Bet

Author : Amy Krouse Rosenthal
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1101650249
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (16 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Al Pha's Bet by : Amy Krouse Rosenthal

Download or read book Al Pha's Bet written by Amy Krouse Rosenthal and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2011-05-12 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wonderful things are being invented every day in Al Pha's world-fire, the wheel, even shadows! His big chance to be part of history comes when the King announces that the twenty-six recently invented letters need to be put in order. Al makes a bet with himself that he's the man for the job. Through a series of funny events, he eventually finds the perfect order for the letters, and the king rewards him by naming his creation the "Alphabet." Sure to entertain and engage young readers, this book turns the ABC's inside out. Kids will laugh at the quirky illustrations and clever wordplay, while wondering where the alphabet really did get its order.

Stumbling on Happiness

Author : Daniel Gilbert
Publisher : Vintage Canada
ISBN 13 : 0307371360
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (73 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Stumbling on Happiness by : Daniel Gilbert

Download or read book Stumbling on Happiness written by Daniel Gilbert and published by Vintage Canada. This book was released on 2009-02-24 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A smart and funny book by a prominent Harvard psychologist, which uses groundbreaking research and (often hilarious) anecdotes to show us why we’re so lousy at predicting what will make us happy – and what we can do about it. Most of us spend our lives steering ourselves toward the best of all possible futures, only to find that tomorrow rarely turns out as we had expected. Why? As Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert explains, when people try to imagine what the future will hold, they make some basic and consistent mistakes. Just as memory plays tricks on us when we try to look backward in time, so does imagination play tricks when we try to look forward. Using cutting-edge research, much of it original, Gilbert shakes, cajoles, persuades, tricks and jokes us into accepting the fact that happiness is not really what or where we thought it was. Among the unexpected questions he poses: Why are conjoined twins no less happy than the general population? When you go out to eat, is it better to order your favourite dish every time, or to try something new? If Ingrid Bergman hadn’t gotten on the plane at the end of Casablanca, would she and Bogey have been better off? Smart, witty, accessible and laugh-out-loud funny, Stumbling on Happiness brilliantly describes all that science has to tell us about the uniquely human ability to envision the future, and how likely we are to enjoy it when we get there.

10-10-10

Author : Suzy Welch
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1847377211
Total Pages : 205 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (473 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis 10-10-10 by : Suzy Welch

Download or read book 10-10-10 written by Suzy Welch and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2009-04-20 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, the world offers us more options than ever before, but it also forces us to juggle more priorities, to make more choices, and to make them faster. The result: a crisis of doing too much, or not enough, and making our decisions based on impulse, stress or guilt. In 10-10-10Suzy Welch offers an exciting, effective strategy that will help you make the right decision in any situation, at work or at home; with colleagues, family or friends. The rule is deceptively simple: when faced with a decision, consider what the consequences and outcomes of your various options would be in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. But the results are extraordinary. Using the framework of 10-10-10will allow you to think through your decisions and to match them with the expectations and values you hold dearest. Most importantly, it allows you to chart a path in the direction you want, and to head confidently towards it with focus, balance, and joy.

Framers

Author : Kenneth Cukier
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0593182596
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (931 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Framers by : Kenneth Cukier

Download or read book Framers written by Kenneth Cukier and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Cukier and his co-authors have a more ambitious project than Kahneman and Harari. They don’t want to just point out how powerfully we are influenced by our perspectives and prejudices—our frames. They want to show us that these frames are tools, and that we can optimise their use.” —Forbes From pandemics to populism, AI to ISIS, wealth inequity to climate change, humanity faces unprecedented challenges that threaten our very existence. The essential tool that will enable humanity to find the best way foward is defined in Framers by internationally renowned authors Kenneth Cukier, Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, and Francis de Véricourt. To frame is to make a mental model that enables us to make sense of new situations. Frames guide the decisions we make and the results we attain. People have long focused on traits like memory and reasoning, leaving framing all but ignored. But with computers becoming better at some of those cognitive tasks, framing stands out as a critical function—and only humans can do it. This book is the first guide to mastering this human ability. Illustrating their case with compelling examples and the latest research, authors Cukier, Mayer-Schönberger, and de Véricourt examine: · Why advice to “think outside the box” is useless · How Spotify beat Apple by reframing music as an experience · How the #MeToo twitter hashtag reframed the perception of sexual assault · The disaster of framing Covid-19 as equivalent to seasonal flu, and how framing it akin to SARS delivered New Zealand from the pandemic Framers shows how framing is not just a way to improve how we make decisions in the era of algorithms—but why it will be a matter of survival for humanity in a time of societal upheaval and machine prosperity.

Calculated Bets

Author : Steven S. Skiena
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521009621
Total Pages : 252 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (96 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Calculated Bets by : Steven S. Skiena

Download or read book Calculated Bets written by Steven S. Skiena and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-08-06 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A story of using computer simulations and mathematical modeling techniques to predict the outcome of jai-alai matches and bet on them successfully.

Trading Bases

Author : Joe Peta
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0451415175
Total Pages : 386 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (514 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Trading Bases by : Joe Peta

Download or read book Trading Bases written by Joe Peta and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2014-03-04 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An ex–Wall Street trader improved on Moneyball’s famed sabermetrics and beat the Vegas odds with his own betting methods. Here is the story of how Joe Peta turned fantasy baseball into a dream come true. Joe Peta turned his back on his Wall Street trading career to pursue an ingenious—and incredibly risky—dream. He would apply his risk-analysis skills to Major League Baseball, and treat the sport like the S&P 500. In Trading Bases, Peta takes us on his journey from the ballpark in San Francisco to the trading floors and baseball bars of New York and the sportsbooks of Las Vegas, telling the story of how he created a baseball “hedge fund” with an astounding 41 percent return in his first year. And he explains the unique methods he developed. Along the way, Peta provides insight into the Wall Street crisis he managed to escape: the fragility of the midnineties investment model; the disgraced former CEO of Lehman Brothers, who recruited Peta; and the high-adrenaline atmosphere where million-dollar sports-betting pools were common.

Your Next Five Moves

Author : Patrick Bet-David
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1982154810
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (821 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Your Next Five Moves by : Patrick Bet-David

Download or read book Your Next Five Moves written by Patrick Bet-David and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2021-06 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the creator of Valuetainment, the #1 YouTube channel for entrepreneurs, and “one of the most exciting thinkers” (Ray Dalio, author of Principles) in business today, comes a practical and effective guide for thinking more clearly and achieving your most audacious professional goals. Both successful entrepreneurs and chess grandmasters have the vision to look at the pieces in front of them and anticipate their next five moves. In this book, Patrick Bet-David “helps entrepreneurs understand exactly what they need to do next” (Brian Tracy, author of Eat That Frog!) by translating this skill into a valuable methodology. Whether you feel like you’ve hit a wall, lost your fire, or are looking for innovative strategies to take your business to the next level, Your Next Five Moves has the answers. You will gain: CLARITY on what you want and who you want to be. STRATEGY to help you reason in the war room and the board room. GROWTH TACTICS for good times and bad. SKILLS for building the right team based on strong values. INSIGHT on power plays and the art of applying leverage. Combining these principles and revelations drawn from Patrick’s own rise to successful CEO, Your Next Five Moves is a must-read for any serious executive, strategist, or entrepreneur.

Thinking in New Boxes

Author : Luc De Brabandere
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 0812992954
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (129 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Thinking in New Boxes by : Luc De Brabandere

Download or read book Thinking in New Boxes written by Luc De Brabandere and published by Random House. This book was released on 2013-09-10 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When BIC, manufacturer of disposable ballpoint pens, wanted to grow, it looked for an idea beyond introducing new sizes and ink colors. Someone suggested lighters. LIGHTERS? With an idea that seemed crazy at first, that bright executive, instead of seeing BIC as a pen company—a business in the PEN “box”—figured out that there was growth to be found in the DISPOSABLE “box.” And he was right. Now there are disposable BIC lighters, razors, even phones. The company opened its door to a host of opportunities. IT INVENTED A NEW BOX. Your business can, too. And simply thinking “out of the box” is not the answer. True ingenuity needs structure, hard analysis, and bold brainstorming. It needs to start THINKING IN NEW BOXES —a revolutionary process for sustainable creativity from two strategic innovation experts from The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). To make sense of the world, we all rely on assumptions, on models—on what Luc de Brabandere and Alan Iny call “boxes.” If we are unaware of our boxes, they can blind us to risks and opportunities. This innovative book challenges everything you thought you knew about business creativity by breaking creativity down into five steps: • Doubt everything. Challenge your current perspectives. • Probe the possible. Explore options around you. • Diverge. Generate many new and exciting ideas, even if they seem absurd. • Converge. Evaluate and select the ideas that will drive breakthrough results. • Reevaluate. Relentlessly. No idea is a good idea forever. And did we mention Reevaluate? Relentlessly. Creativity is paramount if you are to thrive in a time of accelerating change. Replete with practical and potent creativity tools, and featuring fascinating case studies from BIC to Ford to Trader Joe’s, Thinking in New Boxes will help you and your company overcome missed opportunities and stay ahead of the curve. This book isn’t a simpleminded checklist. This is Thinking in New Boxes. And it will be fun. (We promise.) Praise for Thinking in New Boxes “Excellent . . . While focusing on business creativity, the principles in this book apply anywhere change is needed and will be of interest to anyone seeking to reinvent herself.”—Blogcritics “Thinking in New Boxes is a five-step guide that leverages the authors’ deep understanding of human nature to enable readers to overcome their limitations and both imagine and create their own futures. This book is a must-read for people living and working in today’s competitive environment.”—Ray O. Johnson, Ph.D., chief technology officer, Lockheed Martin “Thinking In New Boxes discusses what I believe to be one of the fundamental shifts all companies/brands need to be thinking about: how to think creatively, in order to innovate and differentiate our brands. We need to thrive and lead in a world of accelerating change and this book challenges us to even greater creativity in our thinking. One of the best business books I’ve read in a long time.”—Jennifer Fox, CEO, Fairmont Hotels & Resorts “As impressive as teaching new tricks to old dogs, Thinking in New Boxes is both inspirational and practical—a comprehensive, step-by-step guide to sharpening one’s wits in order to harness creativity in the workplace.”—Peter Gelb, general manager, Metropolitan Opera

Soccermatics

Author : David Sumpter
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1472924150
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (729 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Soccermatics by : David Sumpter

Download or read book Soccermatics written by David Sumpter and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2016-05-05 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Football looked at in a very different way' Pat Nevin, former Chelsea and Everton star and football media analyst Football – the most mathematical of sports. From shot statistics and league tables to the geometry of passing and managerial strategy, the modern game is filled with numbers, patterns and shapes. How do we make sense of them? The answer lies in the mathematical models applied in biology, physics and economics. Soccermatics brings football and mathematics together in a mind-bending synthesis, using numbers to help reveal the inner workings of the beautiful game. This new and expanded edition analyses the current big-name players and teams using mathematics, and meets the professionals working inside football who use numbers and statistics to boost performance. Welcome to the world of mathematical modelling, expressed brilliantly by David Sumpter through the prism of football. No matter who you follow – from your local non-league side to the big boys of the Premiership, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A or the MLS – you'll be amazed at what mathematics has to teach us about the world's favourite sport.

Annie Duke

Author : Annie Duke
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781594630125
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (31 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Annie Duke by : Annie Duke

Download or read book Annie Duke written by Annie Duke and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The top-ranked female poker player in the world reveals an insider's view of the World Series of Poker. Annie Lederer grew up in a card-playing family, whose dual mantra was "Education is everything" and "win at all costs." At 26, when the Columbia alum suddenly developed a panic disorder just before finishing her doctorate, she freaked and fled to Montana. Months later, on a lark, she began to hone her poker skills and quickly started to win. Soon, she and her new husband upped the ante and moved to Las Vegas, and the rest is history. Highlighting strategic tips and keen analysis that will appeal to both the skilled player and the reader newly intrigued, Annie Duke shares a unique view of a game that's fast evolved into a subculture.--From publisher description.

Betting on Ideas

Author : Reuven Brenner
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 9780226074016
Total Pages : 266 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (74 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Betting on Ideas by : Reuven Brenner

Download or read book Betting on Ideas written by Reuven Brenner and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1989-07-10 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, Reuven Brenner argues that people bet on new ideas and are more willing to take risks when they have been outdone by their fellows on local, national, or international scales. Such bets mean that people deviate from the beaten path and either gamble, commit crimes, or come up with new ideas in art, business, or politics, and ideas concerning war and peace in particular. By using evidence on gambling, crime, and creativity now and during the Industrial Revolution, by examining innovations in English and French inheritance laws and the emergence of welfare legislation, and by looking at what has happened before and after wars, Brenner reaches the conclusion that hope and fear, envy and vanity, sentiments provoked when being leapfrogged, make humans race.