Author : Mr.Serhan Cevik
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513526340
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis Where Should We Go? Internet Searches and Tourist Arrivals by : Mr.Serhan Cevik
Download or read book Where Should We Go? Internet Searches and Tourist Arrivals written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-31 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The widespread availability of internet search data is a new source of high-frequency information that can potentially improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The results indicate that the forecast model incorporating internet search data provides additional information about tourist flows over a univariate approach using the traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and multivariate models with macroeconomic indicators. The Google Trends-augmented model improves predictability of tourist arrivals by about 30 percent compared to the benchmark ARIMA model and more than 20 percent compared to the model extended only with income and relative prices.