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Understanding Long Term Japanese Government Bonds Low Nominal Yields
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Book Synopsis Understanding Long-Term Japanese Government Bonds' Low Nominal Yields by : Tanweer Akram
Download or read book Understanding Long-Term Japanese Government Bonds' Low Nominal Yields written by Tanweer Akram and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past two decades chronic fiscal deficits have led to elevated and rising ratios of government debt to nominal GDP in Japan. Nevertheless long-term Japanese government bonds' (JGBs) nominal yields initially declined and since then have stayed remarkably low and stable. This is contrary to the received wisdom of the existing literature which holds that higher government deficits and indebtedness shall exert upward pressures on nominal yields. This paper examines the relationship between JGBs' nominal yields and short-term interest rates and other factors, such as low inflation and persistent deflationary pressures and tepid growth. It is also argued that Japan has monetary sovereignty, which gives the Government of Japan the ability to service its debt and enables the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to keep JGBs' nominal yields low by ensuring that short-term interest rates are low and by using various other tools of monetary policy. The argument that short-term interest rates and monetary policy are the primarily drivers of long-term interest rates follows Keynes's (1930) insights.
Book Synopsis The Determinants of Long-Term Japanese Government Bonds' Low Nominal Yields by : Tanweer Akram
Download or read book The Determinants of Long-Term Japanese Government Bonds' Low Nominal Yields written by Tanweer Akram and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Japanese Government Bonds' Nominal Yields by : Tanweer Akram
Download or read book The Dynamics of Japanese Government Bonds' Nominal Yields written by Tanweer Akram and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Impact of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy on Japanese Government Bonds' Low Nominal Yields by : Tanweer Akram
Download or read book The Impact of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy on Japanese Government Bonds' Low Nominal Yields written by Tanweer Akram and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Assessing the Risks to the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Market by : Mr.Waikei W. Lam
Download or read book Assessing the Risks to the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Market written by Mr.Waikei W. Lam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the rise in public debt, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained low and stable, supported by steady inflows from the household and corporate sectors, high domestic ownership of JGBs, and safe-haven flows from heightened sovereign risks in Europe. Over time, however, the market's capacity to absorb new debt will likely shrink as population ages and risk appetite recovers. In the short term, a decline in fund supply from the corporate sector, where financial surpluses are abnormally high, and spillovers from global financial distress could push up JGB yields. Fiscal reforms to reduce public debt more quickly and lengthen the maturity of government bonds will help limit these risks.
Book Synopsis Some Empirical Models of Japanese Government Bond Yields Using Daily Data by : Tanweer Akram
Download or read book Some Empirical Models of Japanese Government Bond Yields Using Daily Data written by Tanweer Akram and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper models the dynamics of Japanese government bond (JGB) nominal yields using daily data. Models of government bond yields based on daily data, such as those presented in this paper, can be useful not only to investors and market analysts, but also to central bankers and other policymakers for assessing financial conditions and macroeconomic developments in real time. The paper shows that long-term JGB nominal yields can be modeled using the short-term interest rate on Treasury bills, the equity index, the exchange rate, commodity price index, and other key financial variables.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan by : John Y. Campbell
Download or read book Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan written by John Y. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Effectiveness of Japan's Negative Interest Rate Policy by : Naoyuki Yoshino
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Japan's Negative Interest Rate Policy written by Naoyuki Yoshino and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In April 2013, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced an inflation target of 2% with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth. But due to lower international oil prices, it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures. Hence, in February 2016, the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through purchasing long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB). The BOJ had previously purchased short-term government bonds mainly, a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs. On the one hand, banks reduced the numbers of government bonds because short-term bond yields had become negative, and even the interest rates of long-term government bonds up to 15 years became negative. On the other hand, bank loans to the corporate sector did not increase due to the Japanese economy's vertical investment-saving (IS) curve. Firstly, we explain why the BOJ has to reduce its 2% inflation target in the present low oil price era. Secondly, we argue that Japan cannot make a sustainable recovery from its long-lasting recession and tackle its long-standing deflation problem by means of its current monetary policy and its negative interest rate policy in particular. It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward sloping rather than vertical. That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest if interest rates are set too low. Japan's long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy. The last section reports our simulation results of tackling Japan's aging population by introducing a productivity-based wage rate and postponement of the retirement age, which will help the recovery of the Japanese economy.
Download or read book Defying Gravity written by Takeo Hoshi and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent academic papers have shown that the Japanese sovereign debt situation is not sustainable. The puzzle is that the bond rate has remained low and stable. Some suggest that the low yield can be explained by domestic residents' willingness to hold Japanese government bonds (JGBs) despite its low return, and that as long as domestic residents remain home-biased, the JGBs are sustainable. About 95% of JGBs are currently owned by domestic residents. This paper argues that even with such dominance of domestic investors, if the amount of government debt breaches the ceiling imposed by the domestic private sector financial assets, the JGB rates can rapidly rise and the Japanese government can face difficulty rolling over the existing debt. A simulation is conducted on future paths of household saving and fiscal situations to show that the ceiling would be breached in the next 10 years or so without a drastic fiscal consolidation. This paper also shows that the government debt can be kept under the ceiling with sufficiently large tax increases. The JGB yields can rise even before the ceiling is hit, if the expectation of such drastic fiscal consolidation disappears. This paper points out several possible triggers for such a change in expectation. However, downgrading of JGBs by credit rating agencies is not likely to be a trigger, since past downgrades have not produced any change in the JGB yield. If and when the JGB rates rapidly rise, the Japanese financial institutions that hold a large amount of JGBs will sustain losses and the economy will suffer from fiscal austerity, financial instability, and inflation.
Book Synopsis Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stability by : Alexis Stenfors
Download or read book Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stability written by Alexis Stenfors and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-07-15 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the financial crisis of 2008-09, central bankers around the world have been forced to abandon conventional monetary policy tools in favour of unconventional policies such as quantitative easing, forward guidance, lowering the interest rate paid on bank reserves into negative territory, and pushing up prices of government bonds. Having faced a crisis in its banking sector nearly a decade earlier, Japan was a pioneer in the use of many of these tools. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stability critically assesses the measures used by Japan and examines what they have meant for the theory and practice of economic policy. The book shows how in practice unconventional monetary policy has worked through its impact on the financial markets. The text aims to generate an understanding of why such measures were introduced and how the Japanese system has subsequently changed regarding aspects such as governance and corporate balance sheets. It provides a comprehensive study of developments in Japanese money markets with the intent to understand the impact of policy on the debt structures that appear to have caused Japan’s deflation. The topics covered range from central bank communication and policymaking to international financial markets and bank balance sheets. This text is of great interest to students and scholars of banking, international finance, financial markets, political economy, and the Japanese economy.
Book Synopsis Japanese Monetary Policy by : Kenneth J. Singleton
Download or read book Japanese Monetary Policy written by Kenneth J. Singleton and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How has the Bank of Japan (BOJ) helped shape Japan's economic growth during the past two decades? This book comprehensively explores the relations between financial market liberalization and BOJ policies and examines the ways in which these policies promoted economic growth in the 1980s. The authors argue that the structure of Japan's financial markets, particularly restrictions on money-market transactions and the key role of commercial banks in financing corporate investments, allowed the BOJ to influence Japan's economic success. The first two chapters provide the most in-depth English-language discussion of the BOJ's operating procedures and policymaker's views about how BOJ actions affect the Japanese business cycle. Chapter three explores the impact of the BOJ's distinctive window guidance policy on corporate investment, while chapter four looks at how monetary policy affects the term structure of interest rates in Japan. The final two chapters examine the overall effect of monetary policy on real aggregate economic activity. This volume will prove invaluable not only to economists interested in the technical operating procedures of the BOJ, but also to those interested in the Japanese economy and in the operation and outcome of monetary reform in general.
Book Synopsis Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt by : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Download or read book Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-12-03 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign debt holdings on a quarterly basis over 2004-11. While recent outflows from euro periphery countries have received wide attention, most sovereign borrowers have continued to increase reliance on foreign investors. This may have helped reduce borrowing costs, but it can imply higher refinancing risks going forward. Meanwhile, advanced economy banks’ exposure to their own government debt has begun to increase across the board after the global financial crisis, strengthening sovereign-bank linkages. In light of these risks, the paper proposes a framework—sovereign funding shock scenarios (FSS)—to conduct forward-looking analysis to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to sudden investor outflows, which can be used along with standard debt sustainability analyses (DSA). It also introduces two risk indices—investor base risk index (IRI) and foreign investor position index (FIPI)—to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to shifts in investor behavior.
Book Synopsis Negative Interest Rates by : Luís Brandão Marques
Download or read book Negative Interest Rates written by Luís Brandão Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on negative interest rate policies and covers a broad range of its effects, with a detailed discussion of findings in the academic literature and of broader country experiences.
Book Synopsis Restoring Japan's Economic Growth by : Adam Simon Posen
Download or read book Restoring Japan's Economic Growth written by Adam Simon Posen and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 1998 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Criticism of current Japanese macroeconomic and financial policies is so wide spread that the reasons for it are assumed to be self-evident. In this volume, Adam Posen explains in depth why a shift in Japanese fiscal and monetary policies, as well as financial reform, would be in Japan's self-interest. He demonstrates that Japanese economic stagnation in the 1990s is the result of mistaken fiscal austerity and financial laissez-faire rather than a structural decline of the "Japan Model." The author outlines a program for putting the country back on the path to solid economic growth - primarily through permanent tax cuts and monetary stabilization - and draws broader lessons from the recent Japanese policy actions that led to the country's continuing stagnation.
Book Synopsis Generational Accounting around the World by : Alan J. Auerbach
Download or read book Generational Accounting around the World written by Alan J. Auerbach and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The realities of mounting government debt, tax burdens, and an aging population raise serious concerns about the financial legacy confronting future generations. How great a fiscal burden will current policies leave to subsequent generations, and how might changes in those policies alter the intergenerational distribution of public welfare? Generational accounting has recently emerged as a robust new method of fiscal analysis and planning designed to assess the long-term sustainability of fiscal policy and to measure the extent of the financial load ultimately borne by present and future generations. A seminal contribution to public economics, generational accounting has already been adopted by 23 nations around the world. Combining the latest and most extensive country-by-country generational analyses with a comprehensive review of generational accounting's innovative methodology, these papers are a consummate resource for economists, political scientists, and policy makers concerned with fiscal health and responsibility.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Implementation by : Ulrich Bindseil
Download or read book Monetary Policy Implementation written by Ulrich Bindseil and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2004-12-02 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first of its kind, this book is entirely dedicated to the implementation of monetary policy. Monetary policy implementation has gone through tremendous changes over the last twenty years, which have witnessed the quiet end of 'reserve position doctrine' and the return of an explicit focus on short-term interest rates. Enthusiastically supported by Keynes and later by the monetarist school, reserve position doctrine was developed mainly by US central bankers and academics during the early 1920s, and at least in the US became the unchallenged dogma of monetary policy implementation for sixty years. The return of interest rate targeting also corresponds largely to the restoration of central banking principles established in the late 19th century. Providing a simple theory of monetary policy implementation, Bindseil goes on to explain the role of the three main instruments (open market operations, standing facilities, and reserve requirements) and reviews their use in the twentieth century. In closing, he summarizes current views on efficient monetary policy implementation.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields by : Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Download or read book Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields written by Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.
