Understanding Elections Through Statistics

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Understanding Elections through Statistics

Author : Ole J. Forsberg
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000205746
Total Pages : 209 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Elections through Statistics by : Ole J. Forsberg

Download or read book Understanding Elections through Statistics written by Ole J. Forsberg and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-02 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.

Understanding Elections through Statistics

Author : Ole J. Forsberg
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000205800
Total Pages : 187 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Elections through Statistics by : Ole J. Forsberg

Download or read book Understanding Elections through Statistics written by Ole J. Forsberg and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-16 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.

The Electoral College

Author : William C. Kimberling
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (327 download)

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Book Synopsis The Electoral College by : William C. Kimberling

Download or read book The Electoral College written by William C. Kimberling and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Securing the Vote

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030947647X
Total Pages : 181 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Securing the Vote by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Securing the Vote written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-09-30 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the 2016 presidential election, America's election infrastructure was targeted by actors sponsored by the Russian government. Securing the Vote: Protecting American Democracy examines the challenges arising out of the 2016 federal election, assesses current technology and standards for voting, and recommends steps that the federal government, state and local governments, election administrators, and vendors of voting technology should take to improve the security of election infrastructure. In doing so, the report provides a vision of voting that is more secure, accessible, reliable, and verifiable.

Public funding of presidential elections

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Public funding of presidential elections by :

Download or read book Public funding of presidential elections written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Guide to U.S. Elections

Author : Deborah Kalb
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1483380386
Total Pages : 5119 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (833 download)

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Book Synopsis Guide to U.S. Elections by : Deborah Kalb

Download or read book Guide to U.S. Elections written by Deborah Kalb and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2015-12-24 with total page 5119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The CQ Press Guide to U.S. Elections is a comprehensive, two-volume reference providing information on the U.S. electoral process, in-depth analysis on specific political eras and issues, and everything in between. Thoroughly revised and infused with new data, analysis, and discussion of issues relating to elections through 2014, the Guide will include chapters on: Analysis of the campaigns for presidency, from the primaries through the general election Data on the candidates, winners/losers, and election returns Details on congressional and gubernatorial contests supplemented with vast historical data. Key Features include: Tables, boxes and figures interspersed throughout each chapter Data on campaigns, election methods, and results Complete lists of House and Senate leaders Links to election-related websites A guide to party abbreviations

Super PACs

Author : Louise I. Gerdes
Publisher : Greenhaven Publishing LLC
ISBN 13 : 0737768649
Total Pages : 113 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (377 download)

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Book Synopsis Super PACs by : Louise I. Gerdes

Download or read book Super PACs written by Louise I. Gerdes and published by Greenhaven Publishing LLC. This book was released on 2014-05-20 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The passage of Citizens United by the Supreme Court in 2010 sparked a renewed debate about campaign spending by large political action committees, or Super PACs. Its ruling said that it is okay for corporations and labor unions to spend as much as they want in advertising and other methods to convince people to vote for or against a candidate. This book provides a wide range of opinions on the issue. Includes primary and secondary sources from a variety of perspectives; eyewitnesses, scientific journals, government officials, and many others.

Federal Election Campaign Laws

Author : United States
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 112 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Federal Election Campaign Laws by : United States

Download or read book Federal Election Campaign Laws written by United States and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition

Author : Ray Fair
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804778027
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition by : Ray Fair

Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition written by Ray Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-14 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

The Presidential Public Funding Program

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 94 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis The Presidential Public Funding Program by :

Download or read book The Presidential Public Funding Program written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Understanding Political Science Statistics

Author : Peter Galderisi
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136819509
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (368 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Political Science Statistics by : Peter Galderisi

Download or read book Understanding Political Science Statistics written by Peter Galderisi and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-12 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In politics, you begin by asking theoretically interesting questions. Sometimes statistics can help answer those questions. When it comes to applied statistics, students shouldn’t just learn a vast array of formula—they need to learn the basic concepts of statistics as solutions to particular problems. Peter Galderisi demonstrates that statistics are a summary of how to answer the problem: learn the math but only after learning the concepts and methodological considerations that give it context. With this as a starting point, Understanding Political Science Statistics asks students to consider how to address a research problem conceptually before being led to the appropriate formula. Throughout, Galderisi looks at problems through a lens of "observations and expectations," which can be applied to myriad statistical techniques, both descriptive and inferential. This approach links the answers researchers get from their individual data analysis to the research designs and questions from which these analyses are derived. By emphasizing the underlying logic of statistical analysis for greater understanding and drawing on applications and examples from political science (including law), the book illustrates how students can apply statistical concepts and techniques in their own research, in future coursework, and simply as an informed consumer of numbers in public discourse. The following features help students master the material: Legal and Methodological sidebars highlight key concepts and provide applied examples on law, politics, and methodology; End-of-chapter exercises allow students to test their mastery of the basic concepts and techniques along the way; A Sample Solutions Guide provides worked-out answers for odd-numbered exercises, with all answers available in the Instructor’s Manual; Key Terms are helpfully called out in both Marginal Definitions and a Glossary; A Companion Website (www.routledge.com/cw/galderisi) with further resources for both students and instructors; A diverse array of data sets include subsets of the ANES and Eurobarometer surveys; CCES; US Congressional district data; and a cross-national dataset with political, economic, and demographic variables; and Companion guides to SPSS and Stata walk students through the procedures for analysis and provide exercises that go hand-in-hand with online data sets.

Introduction to Data Science

Author : Rafael A. Irizarry
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000708039
Total Pages : 794 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Data Science by : Rafael A. Irizarry

Download or read book Introduction to Data Science written by Rafael A. Irizarry and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-20 with total page 794 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction to Data Science: Data Analysis and Prediction Algorithms with R introduces concepts and skills that can help you tackle real-world data analysis challenges. It covers concepts from probability, statistical inference, linear regression, and machine learning. It also helps you develop skills such as R programming, data wrangling, data visualization, predictive algorithm building, file organization with UNIX/Linux shell, version control with Git and GitHub, and reproducible document preparation. This book is a textbook for a first course in data science. No previous knowledge of R is necessary, although some experience with programming may be helpful. The book is divided into six parts: R, data visualization, statistics with R, data wrangling, machine learning, and productivity tools. Each part has several chapters meant to be presented as one lecture. The author uses motivating case studies that realistically mimic a data scientist’s experience. He starts by asking specific questions and answers these through data analysis so concepts are learned as a means to answering the questions. Examples of the case studies included are: US murder rates by state, self-reported student heights, trends in world health and economics, the impact of vaccines on infectious disease rates, the financial crisis of 2007-2008, election forecasting, building a baseball team, image processing of hand-written digits, and movie recommendation systems. The statistical concepts used to answer the case study questions are only briefly introduced, so complementing with a probability and statistics textbook is highly recommended for in-depth understanding of these concepts. If you read and understand the chapters and complete the exercises, you will be prepared to learn the more advanced concepts and skills needed to become an expert.

The Mathematics of Elections and Voting

Author : W.D. Wallis
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319098101
Total Pages : 96 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis The Mathematics of Elections and Voting by : W.D. Wallis

Download or read book The Mathematics of Elections and Voting written by W.D. Wallis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-10-08 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title takes an in-depth look at the mathematics in the context of voting and electoral systems, with focus on simple ballots, complex elections, fairness, approval voting, ties, fair and unfair voting, and manipulation techniques. The exposition opens with a sketch of the mathematics behind the various methods used in conducting elections. The reader is lead to a comprehensive picture of the theoretical background of mathematics and elections through an analysis of Condorcet’s Principle and Arrow’s Theorem of conditions in electoral fairness. Further detailed discussion of various related topics include: methods of manipulating the outcome of an election, amendments, and voting on small committees. In recent years, electoral theory has been introduced into lower-level mathematics courses, as a way to illustrate the role of mathematics in our everyday life. Few books have studied voting and elections from a more formal mathematical viewpoint. This text will be useful to those who teach lower level courses or special topics courses and aims to inspire students to understand the more advanced mathematics of the topic. The exercises in this text are ideal for upper undergraduate and early graduate students, as well as those with a keen interest in the mathematics behind voting and elections.

Why Americans Split Their Tickets

Author : Barry C. Burden
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472023063
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Americans Split Their Tickets by : Barry C. Burden

Download or read book Why Americans Split Their Tickets written by Barry C. Burden and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2009-12-22 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do some voters split their ballots, selecting a Republican for one office and a Democrat for another? Why do voters often choose one party to control the White House while the other controls the Congress? Barry Burden and David Kimball address these fundamental puzzles of American elections by explaining the causes of divided government and debunking the myth that voters prefer the division of power over one-party control. Why Americans Split Their Tickets links recent declines in ticket-splitting to sharpening policy differences between parties and demonstrates why candidates' ideological positions still matter in American elections. "Burden and Kimball have given us the most careful and thorough analysis of split-ticket voting yet. It won't settle all of the arguments about the origins of ticket splitting and divided government, but these arguments will now be much better informed. Why Americans Split Their Tickets is essential reading for anyone interested in understanding the major trends in U.S. electoral politics of the past several decades." -Gary Jacobson, University of California, San Diego "When voters split their tickets or produce divided government, it is common to attribute the outcome as a strategic verdict or a demand for partisan balance. Burden and Kimball strongly challenge such claims. With a thorough and deft use of statistics, they portray ticket-splitting as a by-product of the separate circumstances that drive the outcomes of the different electoral contests. This will be the book to be reckoned with on the matter of ticket splitting." -Robert Erikson, Columbia University "[Burden and Kimball] offset the expansive statistical analysis by delving into the historical circumstances and results of recent campaigns and elections. ... [They] make a scholarly and informative contribution to the understanding of the voting habits of the American electorate-and the resulting composition of American government." -Shant Mesrobian, NationalJournal.com

Democracy for Realists

Author : Christopher H. Achen
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888743
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Democracy for Realists by : Christopher H. Achen

Download or read book Democracy for Realists written by Christopher H. Achen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why our belief in government by the people is unrealistic—and what we can do about it Democracy for Realists assails the romantic folk-theory at the heart of contemporary thinking about democratic politics and government, and offers a provocative alternative view grounded in the actual human nature of democratic citizens. Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels deploy a wealth of social-scientific evidence, including ingenious original analyses of topics ranging from abortion politics and budget deficits to the Great Depression and shark attacks, to show that the familiar ideal of thoughtful citizens steering the ship of state from the voting booth is fundamentally misguided. They demonstrate that voters—even those who are well informed and politically engaged—mostly choose parties and candidates on the basis of social identities and partisan loyalties, not political issues. They also show that voters adjust their policy views and even their perceptions of basic matters of fact to match those loyalties. When parties are roughly evenly matched, elections often turn on irrelevant or misleading considerations such as economic spurts or downturns beyond the incumbents' control; the outcomes are essentially random. Thus, voters do not control the course of public policy, even indirectly. Achen and Bartels argue that democratic theory needs to be founded on identity groups and political parties, not on the preferences of individual voters. Now with new analysis of the 2016 elections, Democracy for Realists provides a powerful challenge to conventional thinking, pointing the way toward a fundamentally different understanding of the realities and potential of democratic government.

Inside Campaigns

Author : William J. Feltus
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1506332986
Total Pages : 378 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (63 download)

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Book Synopsis Inside Campaigns by : William J. Feltus

Download or read book Inside Campaigns written by William J. Feltus and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2016-02-24 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inside Campaigns: Elections Through the Eyes of Political Professionals offers readers a detailed, thoroughly researched examination of U.S. political campaigns. Through the eyes of more than 100 campaign managers and political professionals, it takes a behind-the-scenes look at the ways campaigns are managed, the strategies that are employed, the roles played by both staff and the candidates, and all the ways campaigns affect election outcomes. The expert author team of William J. Feltus, Kenneth M. Goldstein, and Matthew Dallek provide guidance drawn from actual campaign case studies, contribute their own data-backed assessment of the current state of modern political campaign management, and offer a trove of observations and war stories. Interviewees include high-profile professionals such as David Axelrod, Ken Mehlman, James Carville, and Kevin Sheekey, as well as lesser-known political journeymen and women who manage America’s state and local campaigns. Democrats and Republicans are evenly represented, giving students a balanced, unique and valuable insight into how campaigns operate.

The Timeline of Presidential Elections

Author : Robert S. Erikson
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226922162
Total Pages : 221 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)

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Book Synopsis The Timeline of Presidential Elections by : Robert S. Erikson

Download or read book The Timeline of Presidential Elections written by Robert S. Erikson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-08-24 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.