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Uncertainty Quantification In Stochastic Climate Models
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Book Synopsis Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy by : Haris Doukas
Download or read book Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy written by Haris Doukas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Quantification by : Ralph C. Smith
Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification written by Ralph C. Smith and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2013-12-02 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification by : Roger Ghanem
Download or read book Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification written by Roger Ghanem and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The topic of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has witnessed massive developments in response to the promise of achieving risk mitigation through scientific prediction. It has led to the integration of ideas from mathematics, statistics and engineering being used to lend credence to predictive assessments of risk but also to design actions (by engineers, scientists and investors) that are consistent with risk aversion. The objective of this Handbook is to facilitate the dissemination of the forefront of UQ ideas to their audiences. We recognize that these audiences are varied, with interests ranging from theory to application, and from research to development and even execution.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling by : Yan Wang
Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling written by Yan Wang and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-12 with total page 604 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling provides a complete overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational materials science. It provides practical tools and methods along with examples of their application to problems in materials modeling. UQ methods are applied to various multiscale models ranging from the nanoscale to macroscale. This book presents a thorough synthesis of the state-of-the-art in UQ methods for materials modeling, including Bayesian inference, surrogate modeling, random fields, interval analysis, and sensitivity analysis, providing insight into the unique characteristics of models framed at each scale, as well as common issues in modeling across scales.
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling by : José Eduardo Souza De Cursi
Download or read book Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling written by José Eduardo Souza De Cursi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-10-21 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This proceedings book covers a wide range of topics related to uncertainty analysis and its application in various fields of engineering and science. It explores uncertainties in numerical simulations for soil liquefaction potential, the toughness properties of construction materials, experimental tests on cyclic liquefaction potential, and the estimation of geotechnical engineering properties for aerogenerator foundation design. Additionally, the book delves into uncertainties in concrete compressive strength, bio-inspired shape optimization using isogeometric analysis, stochastic damping in rotordynamics, and the hygro-thermal properties of raw earth building materials. It also addresses dynamic analysis with uncertainties in structural parameters, reliability-based design optimization of steel frames, and calibration methods for models with dependent parameters. The book further explores mechanical property characterization in 3D printing, stochastic analysis in computational simulations, probability distribution in branching processes, data assimilation in ocean circulation modeling, uncertainty quantification in climate prediction, and applications of uncertainty quantification in decision problems and disaster management. This comprehensive collection provides insights into the challenges and solutions related to uncertainty in various scientific and engineering contexts.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Quantification by : Ralph C. Smith
Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification written by Ralph C. Smith and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2013-12-02 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.
Book Synopsis Adapting to Climate Change in Europe by : Hans Sanderson
Download or read book Adapting to Climate Change in Europe written by Hans Sanderson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-03-12 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adapting to Climate Change in Europe: Exploring Sustainable Pathways - From Local Measures to Wider Policies is a scientific synthesis of a four-year project on adaptation activities in Europe. It combines scientific assessments with real-world case descriptions to present specific tools and methods. This book aims at ensuring sustainable solutions in adaptation to climate change. The challenge of adaptation is still at an early stage; this book fills relevant gaps in current knowledge on climate adaptation, providing a crucial set of tools to support effective decision-making. It acts as a guide to practitioners and decision-makers along different steps of on-going adaptation processes. Adapting to Climate Change in Europe contains methods and tools for improving stakeholder's participation and analyzing costs and benefits of different adaptation measures. It is an essential resource for researchers, graduate students, and experts and policymakers working in climate change and adaptation. - Features real world case studies providing a tool for comparative learning - Fulfills the current knowledge gap in climate change adaptation - Includes top-down economic models allowing for a novel application and integration of adaptation features in European and global models - Provides in-depth analysis of participation using new empirical material and approaches
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling by : José Eduardo Souza De Cursi
Download or read book Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling written by José Eduardo Souza De Cursi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-19 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This proceedings book discusses state-of-the-art research on uncertainty quantification in mechanical engineering, including statistical data concerning the entries and parameters of a system to produce statistical data on the outputs of the system. It is based on papers presented at Uncertainties 2020, a workshop organized on behalf of the Scientific Committee on Uncertainty in Mechanics (Mécanique et Incertain) of the AFM (French Society of Mechanical Sciences), the Scientific Committee on Stochastic Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification of the ABCM (Brazilian Society of Mechanical Sciences) and the SBMAC (Brazilian Society of Applied Mathematics).
Book Synopsis Computational Methods in Transport: Verification and Validation by : Frank Graziani
Download or read book Computational Methods in Transport: Verification and Validation written by Frank Graziani and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-09 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of this book deals with a cross cutting issue affecting all transport disciplines, whether it be photon, neutron, charged particle or neutrino transport. That is, verification and validation. In this book, we learn what the astrophysicist, atmospheric scientist, mathematician or nuclear engineer do to assess the accuracy of their code. What convergence studies, what error analysis, what problems do each field use to ascertain the accuracy of their transport simulations.
Book Synopsis Numerical Methods for Stochastic Computations by : Dongbin Xiu
Download or read book Numerical Methods for Stochastic Computations written by Dongbin Xiu and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The@ first graduate-level textbook to focus on fundamental aspects of numerical methods for stochastic computations, this book describes the class of numerical methods based on generalized polynomial chaos (gPC). These fast, efficient, and accurate methods are an extension of the classical spectral methods of high-dimensional random spaces. Designed to simulate complex systems subject to random inputs, these methods are widely used in many areas of computer science and engineering. The book introduces polynomial approximation theory and probability theory; describes the basic theory of gPC methods through numerical examples and rigorous development; details the procedure for converting stochastic equations into deterministic ones; using both the Galerkin and collocation approaches; and discusses the distinct differences and challenges arising from high-dimensional problems. The last section is devoted to the application of gPC methods to critical areas such as inverse problems and data assimilation. Ideal for use by graduate students and researchers both in the classroom and for self-study, Numerical Methods for Stochastic Computations provides the required tools for in-depth research related to stochastic computations. The first graduate-level textbook to focus on the fundamentals of numerical methods for stochastic computations Ideal introduction for graduate courses or self-study Fast, efficient, and accurate numerical methods Polynomial approximation theory and probability theory included Basic gPC methods illustrated through examples
Book Synopsis Stochastic Climate Models by : Peter Imkeller
Download or read book Stochastic Climate Models written by Peter Imkeller and published by Birkhäuser. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of articles written by mathematicians and physicists, designed to describe the state of the art in climate models with stochastic input. Mathematicians will benefit from a survey of simple models, while physicists will encounter mathematically relevant techniques at work.
Book Synopsis Demystifying Climate Models by : Andrew Gettelman
Download or read book Demystifying Climate Models written by Andrew Gettelman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-09 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.
Book Synopsis Markov Chain Monte Carlo by : Dani Gamerman
Download or read book Markov Chain Monte Carlo written by Dani Gamerman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2006-05-10 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While there have been few theoretical contributions on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the past decade, current understanding and application of MCMC to the solution of inference problems has increased by leaps and bounds. Incorporating changes in theory and highlighting new applications, Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simul
Book Synopsis Large-Scale Inverse Problems and Quantification of Uncertainty by : Lorenz Biegler
Download or read book Large-Scale Inverse Problems and Quantification of Uncertainty written by Lorenz Biegler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-06-24 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on computational methods for large-scale statistical inverse problems and provides an introduction to statistical Bayesian and frequentist methodologies. Recent research advances for approximation methods are discussed, along with Kalman filtering methods and optimization-based approaches to solving inverse problems. The aim is to cross-fertilize the perspectives of researchers in the areas of data assimilation, statistics, large-scale optimization, applied and computational mathematics, high performance computing, and cutting-edge applications. The solution to large-scale inverse problems critically depends on methods to reduce computational cost. Recent research approaches tackle this challenge in a variety of different ways. Many of the computational frameworks highlighted in this book build upon state-of-the-art methods for simulation of the forward problem, such as, fast Partial Differential Equation (PDE) solvers, reduced-order models and emulators of the forward problem, stochastic spectral approximations, and ensemble-based approximations, as well as exploiting the machinery for large-scale deterministic optimization through adjoint and other sensitivity analysis methods. Key Features: Brings together the perspectives of researchers in areas of inverse problems and data assimilation. Assesses the current state-of-the-art and identify needs and opportunities for future research. Focuses on the computational methods used to analyze and simulate inverse problems. Written by leading experts of inverse problems and uncertainty quantification. Graduate students and researchers working in statistics, mathematics and engineering will benefit from this book.
Author :Division on Earth and Life Studies Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309259770 Total Pages :252 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (92 download)
Book Synopsis A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling by : Division on Earth and Life Studies
Download or read book A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling written by Division on Earth and Life Studies and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.
Book Synopsis Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 by : Sez Atamturktur
Download or read book Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 written by Sez Atamturktur and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-27 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantifi cation, Volume 3. Proceedings of the 34th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Dynamics of Multiphysical Systems: From Active Materials to Vibroacoustics, 2016, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. Th e collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: • Uncertainty Quantifi cation & Model Validation • Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics • Bayesian & Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods • Practical Applications of MVUQ • Advances in MVUQ & Model Updating • Robustness in Design & Validation • Verifi cation & Validation Methods
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021 by : Martin Eichenbaum
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021 written by Martin Eichenbaum and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-05-17 with total page 491 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021 presents research-central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. Robert Hall and Marianna Kudlyak examine unemployment dynamics during economic recoveries. They present new empirical findings and explore models in which the labor market gradually draws down the stock of unemployed workers in the aftermath of a downturn. Titan Alon, Sena Coskun, Matthias Doepke, David Koll, and Michèle Tertilt analyze the relative decline in employment of women during the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated global recession. They show that increased childcare needs, which fell more heavily on women, and differences in occupations both contributed. In the case of the US, however, each of these factors account for less than 20% of the gender gap in hours worked during the pandemic. Richard Rogerson and Johanna Wallenius study the employment rates of older workers in OECD countries over the last forty years. An expansion of institutions incentivizing retirement, concurrent with negative aggregate shocks between 1970 and 1995, led to falling employment rates. This trend started to reverse in the mid-1990s when many of these institutions, such as public pension programs, were cut back. Michael Barnett, William Brock, and Lars Peter Hansen explore the consequences of risk, ambiguity, and model misspecification in climate policy design. They consider carbon emissions pricing and the effects of different sources of uncertainty—such as future information about environmental damage, uncertainties in carbon and temperature dynamics and damage functions, and the role of future green technologies—on policy design. Michael Kremer, Jack Willis, and Yang You present new evidence suggesting a steady trend toward income convergence across countries since the late 1980s. They find convergence in various determinants of economic growth across countries and a flattening of the relationship between growth and these determinants. The paper challenges theories of growth arising after earlier rejections of the neoclassical growth model.
