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Author : Timothy P. Barnett
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 80 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (439 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty Levels in Predicted Patterns of Anthropogenic Climate Change written by Timothy P. Barnett and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty Levels in Predicted Patterns of Anthropogenic Climate Change written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309133505
Total Pages : 222 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Radiative Forcing of Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-03-25 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changes in climate are driven by natural and human-induced perturbations of the Earth's energy balance. These climate drivers or "forcings" include variations in greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use, and the amount of energy Earth receives from the Sun. Although climate throughout Earth's history has varied from "snowball" conditions with global ice cover to "hothouse" conditions when glaciers all but disappeared, the climate over the past 10,000 years has been remarkably stable and favorable to human civilization. Increasing evidence points to a large human impact on global climate over the past century. The report reviews current knowledge of climate forcings and recommends critical research needed to improve understanding. Whereas emphasis to date has been on how these climate forcings affect global mean temperature, the report finds that regional variation and climate impacts other than temperature deserve increased attention.
Author : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9781009157971
Total Pages : 755 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (579 download)
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309145856
Total Pages : 134 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book America's Climate Choices written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-06-11 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is occurring. It is very likely caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human activities, and poses significant risks for a range of human and natural systems. And these emissions continue to increase, which will result in further change and greater risks. America's Climate Choices makes the case that the environmental, economic, and humanitarian risks posed by climate change indicate a pressing need for substantial action now to limit the magnitude of climate change and to prepare for adapting to its impacts. Although there is some uncertainty about future risk, acting now will reduce the risks posed by climate change and the pressure to make larger, more rapid, and potentially more expensive reductions later. Most actions taken to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts are common sense investments that will offer protection against natural climate variations and extreme events. In addition, crucial investment decisions made now about equipment and infrastructure can "lock in" commitments to greenhouse gas emissions for decades to come. Finally, while it may be possible to scale back or reverse many responses to climate change, it is difficult or impossible to "undo" climate change, once manifested. Current efforts of local, state, and private-sector actors are important, but not likely to yield progress comparable to what could be achieved with the addition of strong federal policies that establish coherent national goals and incentives, and that promote strong U.S. engagement in international-level response efforts. The inherent complexities and uncertainties of climate change are best met by applying an iterative risk management framework and making efforts to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions; prepare for adapting to impacts; invest in scientific research, technology development, and information systems; and facilitate engagement between scientific and technical experts and the many types of stakeholders making America's climate choices.
Author : Carolyn Port Snyder
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (666 download)
Download or read book Key Uncertainties in the Risks of Future Climate Change written by Carolyn Port Snyder and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What can we learn from the last million years of Earth history to better characterize important uncertainties in our understanding and predictions of anthropogenic climate change? To investigate this question, I compile a database of over 12,000 reconstructions of sea surface temperature, as well as reconstructions of polar temperatures, deep-sea temperatures, sea level, atmospheric greenhouse gases, and atmospheric dust. I create a probabilistic analysis framework to compare the reconstructions and to quantify numerous sources of uncertainty. Next, I use a Bayesian hierarchical model to assess patterns of sea surface temperature simultaneously over time and space, finding support for a "universal" curve of temperature response with latitude over the past million years. Third, I use the new database to create the first reconstruction of global average surface temperature over the past 800kyr. Previous reconstructions were limited to only a few isolated windows of time or specific locations. I find that climate models very likely (> 90% probability) underpredict global average cooling at the last glacial maximum (19-23kyr ago). I also find a remarkably stable relationship between global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 800kyr. Lastly, I estimate that the Earth's climate sensitivity (change in global temperature in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations) is 4.1K (2.1K-6.6K, 95% interval) and does not vary with time over the past 450kyr. These results significantly constrain the upper tail of climate sensitivity purely from the paleoclimate record and suggest that climate sensitivity values higher than 7K or less than 2K are not consistent with our current understanding of the Earth's past. Moreover, the median estimate of 4.1K is higher than 16 of the 19 IPCC global climate models. These results have important implications for assessing the risks of future climate change.
Author : Gabriele Gramelsberger
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 364217700X
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (421 download)
Download or read book Climate Change and Policy written by Gabriele Gramelsberger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-30 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the ‘nature’ of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today’s attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the 'nature' of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today's attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? Gabriele Gramelsberger is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309287766
Total Pages : 281 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)
Download or read book Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-12-31 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.
Author : Igor Linkov
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9400717709
Total Pages : 591 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Climate written by Igor Linkov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-08-31 with total page 591 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rising sea levels and altered weather patterns are expected to significantly alter coastal and inland environments for humans, infrastructure and ecosystems. Potential land-use changes and population increases, coupled with uncertain predictions for sea level rise and storm frequency/intensity represent a significant planning challenge. While efforts to mitigate climate change continue, plans must be made to adapt to the risks that climate change poses to humans, infrastructure, and ecosystems alike. This book addresses integrated environmental assessment and management as part of the nexus of climate change adaptation. Risk analysis has emerged as a useful approach to guide assessment, communication and management of security risks. However, with respect to climate change, an integrated, multi-criteria, multi-hazard, risk-informed decision framework is desirable for evaluating adaptation strategies. The papers in Part 1 summarize societal and political needs for climate change adaptation. Part 2 includes papers summarizing the state of the art in climate change adaptation. Three further parts cover: the process of change in coastal regions, in inland regions, and, finally, the potential challenges to homeland security for national governments. Each of these parts reviews achievements, identifies gaps in current knowledge, and suggests research priorities.
Author : Steering Committee of the Climate Change Study
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Climate Change Science written by Steering Committee of the Climate Change Study and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change science: current understanding and uncertainties/Steering Committee of the Climate Change Study.
Author : Michael R. Allen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (643 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty in Forecasts of Anthropogenic Climate Change written by Michael R. Allen and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Myles R. Allen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (594 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty in Forecast of Anthropogenic Climate Change written by Myles R. Allen and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Lyla Mehta
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000531538
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (5 download)
Download or read book The Politics of Climate Change and Uncertainty in India written by Lyla Mehta and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-12-24 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together diverse perspectives concerning uncertainty and climate change in India. Uncertainty is a key factor shaping climate and environmental policy at international, national and local levels. Climate change and events such as cyclones, floods, droughts and changing rainfall patterns create uncertainties that planners, resource managers and local populations are regularly confronted with. In this context, uncertainty has emerged as a "wicked problem" for scientists and policymakers, resulting in highly debated and disputed decision-making. The book focuses on India, one of the most climatically vulnerable countries in the world, where there are stark socio-economic inequalities in addition to diverse geographic and climatic settings. Based on empirical research, it covers case studies from coastal Mumbai to dryland Kutch and the Sundarbans delta in West Bengal. These localities offer ecological contrasts, rural–urban diversity, varied exposure to different climate events, and diverse state and official responses. The book unpacks the diverse discourses, practices and politics of uncertainty and demonstrates profound differences through which the "above", "middle" and "below" understand and experience climate change and uncertainty. It also makes a case for bringing together diverse knowledges and approaches to understand and embrace climate-related uncertainties in order to facilitate transformative change. Appealing to a broad professional and student audience, the book draws on wide-ranging theoretical and conceptual approaches from climate science, historical analysis, science, technology and society studies, development studies and environmental studies. By looking at the intersection between local and diverse understandings of climate change and uncertainty with politics, culture, history and ecology, the book argues for plural and socially just ways to tackle climate change in India and beyond. The Open Access version of this book, available at http://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781003257585, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309467578
Total Pages : 717 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)
Download or read book Thriving on Our Changing Planet written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-01-20 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.
Author : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107025060
Total Pages : 593 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-05-28 with total page 593 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Author : Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789291691432
Total Pages : 151 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (914 download)
Download or read book Climate Change 2014 written by Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Julian Morris
Publisher : Institute of Economic Affairs
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Climate Change written by Julian Morris and published by Institute of Economic Affairs. This book was released on 1997 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world's climate is in constant flux: on time-scales from days to millennia, global and regional temperature, wind and rainfall patterns are changing. Over periods of decades and centuries, the most significant factor affecting climate appears to be changes in the output of the sun. Man's emissions of 'greenhouse gases' (GHGs) also play a role in altering climate. However, estimates suggest that only 30 to 40 per cent of the warming seen over the past century was caused by GHGs. Predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assume that most of the warming of the past century was caused by man's emissions and therefore overestimate the likely effect of future emissions. Better estimates suggest that if CO2 concentrations double, global-mean temperatures would rise by about 1.3 degrees centigrade with an upper limit of 2 degrees centigrade. Estimates by some of the world's most respected climate scientists suggest that even if a warming of 2 degrees centigrade does occur the impact on humankind will not be catastrophic; indeed agricultural productivity is likely to increase in many parts of the world, due to longer growing seasons and increases in uptake of CO2. IPCC lead authors have exaggerated the likely impacts of climate change in order to heighten public perception of the issue and thereby encourage governments to spend more on climate research. Between 1990 and 1995, annual US Government spending on climate research rose from $600m to $1.8bn. Estimates suggest that the cost of reducing CO2 emissions to 1990 levels by 2010 could be around 1 per cent of global output. Even assuming costs were only half that, the result would be less investment in the development of new technologies and considerable industrial downsizing, with consequent job losses. Furthermore, if significant natural climate change does occur in the next century - as it has over the past 100 years - then the cost of imposing limits on emissions of carbon dioxide and other trace gases might be even greater. Whether this natural climate variation causes the Earth to warm or to cool, the consequence of emission limits would be that fewer resources would be available for taking adaptive action (such as installing air conditioning units or heaters) Given the uncertainty about climate change, the precautionary principle implies that we should improve our understanding of the world's climate and do what we can to ensure that we are able to adapt most effectively. This means collecting better data, encouraging scientists to develop and test competing theories about the causes and consequences of climate change, freeing up the world's markets, and eliminating subsidies.
