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Author : Ruediger Bachmann
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (931 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty and Economic Activity written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 65 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty and Economic Activity written by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measures of economic uncertainty are countercyclical, but economic theory does not provide definite guidance on the direction of causation between uncertainty and the business cycle. This paper proposes a new multi-country approach to the analysis of the interaction between uncertainty and economic activity, without a priori restricting the direction of causality. We develop a multi-country version of the Lucas tree model with time-varying volatility and show that in addition to common technology shocks that affect output growth, higher-order moments of technology shocks are also required to explain the cross country variations of the realized volatility of equity concerns. Using this theoretical insight, two common factors, a ‘real’ and a ‘financial’ one, are identified in the empirical analysis assuming different patterns of cross-country correlations of country-specific innovations to real GDP growth and realized stock market volatility. We then quantify the absolute and the relative importance of the common factor shocks as well as country-specific volatility and GDP growth shocks. The paper highlights three main empirical findings. First, it is shown that most of the unconditional correlation between volatility and growth can be accounted for by the real common factor, which is proportional to world growth in our empirical model and linked to the risk-free rate. Second, the share of volatility forecast error variance explained by the real common factor and by country-specific growth shocks amounts to less than 5 percent. Third, shocks to the common financial factor explain about 10 percent of the growth forecast error variance, but when such shocks occur, their negative impact on growth is large and persistent. In contrast, country-specific volatility shocks account for less than 1-2 percent of the growth forecast error variance.
Author : Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty and Economic Activity written by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent anemic recovery have rekindled academic interest in quantifying the impact of uncertainty on macroeconomic dynamics based on the premise that uncertainty causes economic activity to slow down and contract. In this paper, we study the interrelation between financial markets volatility and economic activity assuming that both variables are driven by the same set of unobserved common factors. We further assume that these common factors affect volatility and economic activity with a time lag of at least a quarter. Under these assumptions, we show analytically that volatility is forward looking and that the output equation of a typical VAR estimated in the literature is mis-specified as least squares estimates of this equation are inconsistent. Empirically, we document a statistically significant and economically sizable impact of future output growth on current volatility, and no effect of volatility shocks on business cycles, over and above those driven by the common factors. We interpret this evidence as suggesting that volatility is a symptom rather than a cause of economic instability.
Author : MissStephanie Denis
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 161635562X
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)
Download or read book The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy written by MissStephanie Denis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at around 6-12 months after the shock, and becomes statistically negligible after 18 months. Interestingly, the impact of uncertainty shocks on industrial production in the UK is strikingly similar to that of the US both in terms of the shape and magnitude of the response. However, unemployment in the UK is less affected by uncertainty shocks. Finally, we find that uncertainty shocks can account for about a quarter of the decline in industrial production during the Great Recession.
Author : Ezgi O. Ozturk
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484316592
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty written by Ezgi O. Ozturk and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-30 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Author : Wongi Kim
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9788932242613
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (426 download)
Download or read book Government Spending Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity written by Wongi Kim and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jens Beckert
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192552759
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (925 download)
Download or read book Uncertain Futures written by Jens Beckert and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-07-12 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
Author : Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (876 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective written by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Author : Björn van Roye
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (863 download)
Download or read book Financial Stress, Uncertainty, and Economic Activity written by Björn van Roye and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Brent Nelson
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN 13 : 9781717362049
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (62 download)
Download or read book Economic Uncertainty written by Brent Nelson and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2018-06-21 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economics is not just about numbers, it's about people. Many things like our possessions, property, stocks, even the cash in our pockets has value because we believe it does. Because we communicate about these things, we have perceptions and expectations. Because we live in an uncertain world, we are motivated to reduce uncertainty by communicating, which creates social reality. Economics is a part of how we construct social reality. It affects everything around us. Since most economic activity is communicative, how we communicate creates value. Economic Uncertainty is meant to encourage thinking about economics in a new way. Not about numbers, but about people. Numbers are static on a page, but people are dynamic going about their daily activities. Economic Uncertainty is based upon perception and expectations, and the difference between them. The process of communicating is a kind of information exchange, like the stock market. The people make offers that are accepted or rejected. This creates an economic theory of communicating and behavior based on the Nelsonian Laws of Uncertainty, Shared Meaning, and Investing. Throughout history, most of human activity has been motivated by uncertainty. Uncertainty motivates our behavior and how we communicate with one another. It can help improve your quality of life.
Author : Paraskevi Salamaliki
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity written by Paraskevi Salamaliki and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide new evidence on the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in aggregate real economic activity in the US using a multiple-horizon Granger causality framework, while allowing for infrequent shifts in mean levels and growth rates of the system variables. Our empirical investigation shows that the predictive ability of EPU for economic activity significantly depends on the presence (or absence) of infrequent structural shifts and the absence from the information set of a forward looking variable such as the stock market level. We do not find economic policy uncertainty effects on industrial production once we control for stock prices irrespective of segmented trends removal. There is some evidence that EPU anticipates employment in the short-run, yet, after removing rare events, EPU does not anticipate employment at any horizon. In contrast, the stock market level is found to contain strong predictive direct and indirect information for economic activity that is robust to the presence of infrequent trend breaks.
Author : Nina Biljanovska
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484325036
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Fear Thy Neighbor: Spillovers from Economic Policy Uncertainty written by Nina Biljanovska and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-15 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High levels of economic policy uncertainty in various parts of the world revamped the de- bate about its impact on economic activity. With increasingly stronger economic, financial, and political ties among countries, economic agents have more reasons to be vigilant of for- eign economic policy. Employing heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressions, this paper tests for spillovers from economic policy uncertainty on other countries' economic ac- tivity. Furthermore, using local projections, the paper zooms in on shocks originating in the United States, Europe, and China. Our results suggest that economic policy uncertainty re- duces growth in real output, private consumption, and private investment, and that spillovers from abroad account for about two-thirds of the negative effect. Moreover, uncertainty in the United States, Europe, and China reduces economic activity in the rest of the world, with the effects being mostly felt in Europe and the Western Hemisphere.
Author : William B. Greer
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9781781959312
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (593 download)
Download or read book Ethics and Uncertainty written by William B. Greer and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study explores how two economists, who both placed "uncertainty" at the heart of their economic theories, came to drastically different and opposing policy recommendations. The volume illustrates the important lesson to be learned from Keynes and Knight.
Author : John Rogers
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (113 download)
Download or read book How Well Does Economic Uncertainty Forecast Economic Activity? written by John Rogers and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Hans-Werner Sinn
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642615473
Total Pages : 378 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (426 download)
Download or read book Economic Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Hans-Werner Sinn and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fundamental Issues Involved Why do we need a theory of uncertainty? It is a fact that almost all man's economic decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty, but this fact alone does not provide a strong enough argument for making the effort necessary to generalize ordinary preference theory designed for a world of perfect certainty. In accordance with Occam's Razor, the mathematician may well welcome a generalization of assumptions even if it does not promise more than a restatement of known results. The economist, however, will only be well disposed towards making the effort if he can expect to achieve new insights and interesting results, for he is interested in the techniques necessary for the generalization only as means to an end, not as ends in themselves. A stronger reason for developing a theory of uncertainty, therefore, seems to be the fact that there are kinds of economic activities to which the non-stochastic preference theory has no access or has access only through highly artificial constructions. Such activities include portfolio decisions of wealth holders, speculation, and insurance. These will be considered in detail in the last chapter of the book. The main purpose of this book, however, is not to apply a theory of uncertainty to concrete economic problems, the purpose rather is to formulate such a theory.
Author : Drew D. Creal
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (16 download)
Download or read book Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations written by Drew D. Creal and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
