Author : Nisantha Kurukulasooriya
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Book Synopsis Time Series Behaviour of Burgeoning International Tourist Arrivals in Sri Lanka by : Nisantha Kurukulasooriya
Download or read book Time Series Behaviour of Burgeoning International Tourist Arrivals in Sri Lanka written by Nisantha Kurukulasooriya and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research provides a comprehensive study of time series behavior of the postwar international tourist arrivals. The empirical study is carried out based on outbound tourist arrivals from all origins that create a demand for tourism in Sri Lanka. The time span is covers from July 2009 to June 2013. In the modeling exercise, classical time series decomposition approach is employed. Mann-Kendall test evidenced for existing linear trend while Kruskal-Wallis tests confirmed the seasonality in tourism. Thus, linear trend component and seasonal fluctuations are the two prominent components whereas multiplicative model is comparatively the most accurate model in forecasting. Tourism sector is booming after the war in Sri Lanka with an approximate increase of 1200 tourists per month. Seasonality accounts for over 85 percent of seasonal variation in arrivals and the seasonal pattern which prevailed within the war period has considerably changed to a new behaviour. According to the Gini coefficient, seasonality reached to an equilibrium after the war and hence June, July and October are tourism months. Since the seasonality is a prominent component in international tourist arrivals, the results of the study recommend necessary arrangements to minimize the negative impact of seasonality in arrivals in respective months. Therefore, different categories of travellers should be focused in low demand periods to alleviate negative impact of seasonality.