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Thinking In Bets
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Download or read book Thinking in Bets written by Annie Duke and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2019-05-07 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
Download or read book How to Decide written by Annie Duke and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.
Download or read book Quit written by Annie Duke and published by Noura Books. This book was released on 2022-06-13 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Dalam berbagai situasi, kita sering kali dihadapkan dengan pilihan sulit: bertahan, berubah arah, atau bahkan berhenti (quit). Nyatanya, walau banyak pertanda tak ada guna untuk tetap bertahan, berhenti identik dengan kata gagal, sehingga tak pernah jadi pilihan. Annie Duke menawarkan strategi berbasis sains yang dapat mengasah keterampilan untuk mengetahui kapan kita harus memilih berhenti dan bagaimana cara melakukannya. Saat Anda sedang menghadapi permasalahan bisnis, karier, atau bahkan hubungan pribadi, piawai dalam memilih mana hal yang harus dipertahankan atau tidak dapat membantu Anda untuk menentukan langkah terbaik berikutnya. Hidup ini singkat. Tak sepatutnya kita membuang waktu, energi, atau uang karena terus mempertahankan keputusan yang salah."
Download or read book Little Bets written by Peter Sims and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2011-04-19 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “An enthusiastic, example-rich argument for innovating in a particular way—by deliberately experimenting and taking small exploratory steps in novel directions. Light, bright, and packed with tidy anecdotes” (The Wall Street Journal). What do Apple CEO Steve Jobs, comedian Chris Rock, prize-winning architect Frank Gehry, and the story developers at Pixar films all have in common? Bestselling author Peter Sims found that rather than start with a big idea or plan a whole project in advance, they make a methodical series of little bets, learning critical information from lots of little failures and from small but significant wins. Reporting on a fascinating range of research, from the psychology of creative blocks to the influential field of design thinking, Sims offers engaging and illuminating accounts of breakthrough innovators at work, and a whole new way of thinking about how to navigate uncertain situations and unleash our untapped creative powers.
Book Synopsis Decide to Play Great Poker by : Annie Duke
Download or read book Decide to Play Great Poker written by Annie Duke and published by Huntington Press Inc. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Poker is a game of table position, flop texture, players in a hand, personalities, and so much more. This book teaches you how to identify and analyze those variables, become a great strategist, and have confidence in any poker situation. Decide to Play Great Poker is written by Annie Duke, the world's most renowned woman poker player, with John Vorhaus, himself a winning poker player and prolific author.
Book Synopsis Understanding Uncertainty by : Dennis V. Lindley
Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
Download or read book 10-10-10 written by Suzy Welch and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2009-04-20 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, the world offers us more options than ever before, but it also forces us to juggle more priorities, to make more choices, and to make them faster. The result: a crisis of doing too much, or not enough, and making our decisions based on impulse, stress or guilt. In 10-10-10Suzy Welch offers an exciting, effective strategy that will help you make the right decision in any situation, at work or at home; with colleagues, family or friends. The rule is deceptively simple: when faced with a decision, consider what the consequences and outcomes of your various options would be in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. But the results are extraordinary. Using the framework of 10-10-10will allow you to think through your decisions and to match them with the expectations and values you hold dearest. Most importantly, it allows you to chart a path in the direction you want, and to head confidently towards it with focus, balance, and joy.
Book Synopsis Creating Great Choices by : Jennifer Riel
Download or read book Creating Great Choices written by Jennifer Riel and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The rarest of business books that teaches decision makers how to think, not what to think." - Malcolm Gladwell When it comes to our hardest choices, it can seem as though making trade-offs is inevitable. But what about those crucial times when accepting the obvious trade-off just isn't good enough? What do we do when the choices in front of us don't get us what we need? Rather than choosing the least worst option, Creating Great Choices offers a model that guides you towards a new and superior answer... integrative thinking. First introduced by world-renowned strategic thinker Roger Martin in The Opposable Mind, integrative thinking is an approach to problem solving that uses opposing ideas as the basis for innovation. Now, in Creating Great Choices, Martin and his longtime thinking partner Jennifer Riel vividly illustrate how integrative thinking works, and how to do it. The book includes fresh stories of successful integrative thinkers that will demystify the process of creative problem solving, as well as practical tools and exercises to help readers engage with the ideas. And it lays out the authors' four-step methodology for creating great choices, which can be applied in virtually any context. The result is a replicable, thoughtful approach to finding a "third and better way" to make important choices in the face of unacceptable trade‐offs. Insightful and instructive, Creating Great Choices blends storytelling, theory, and hands-on advice to help any leader or manager facing a tough choice.
Book Synopsis Al Pha's Bet by : Amy Krouse Rosenthal
Download or read book Al Pha's Bet written by Amy Krouse Rosenthal and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2011-05-12 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wonderful things are being invented every day in Al Pha's world-fire, the wheel, even shadows! His big chance to be part of history comes when the King announces that the twenty-six recently invented letters need to be put in order. Al makes a bet with himself that he's the man for the job. Through a series of funny events, he eventually finds the perfect order for the letters, and the king rewards him by naming his creation the "Alphabet." Sure to entertain and engage young readers, this book turns the ABC's inside out. Kids will laugh at the quirky illustrations and clever wordplay, while wondering where the alphabet really did get its order.
Book Synopsis The Go-Giver Influencer by : Bob Burg
Download or read book The Go-Giver Influencer written by Bob Burg and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2018-04-10 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the bestselling authors of The Go-Giver, Go-Givers Sell More, and The Go-Giver Leader comes another compelling parable about the paradox of getting ahead by placing other people's interests first. The Go-Giver Influencer is a story about two young, ambitious businesspeople: Gillian Waters, the chief buyer for Smith & Banks, a midsized company that operates a national chain of pet accessory stores; and Jackson Hill, the founder of Angels Clothed in Fur, a small but growing manufacturer of all-natural pet foods. Each has something the other wants. To Jackson, Smith & Banks represents the possibility of reaching more animals with his products--if he can negotiate terms and conditions that will protect his company's integrity. To Gillian, Angels Clothed in Fur could give her company a distinctive, uniquely high-quality line that will help them stand out from their competitors--if Angels Clothed in Fur can be persuaded to give them an exclusive. At first, the negotiations are adversarial and frustrating. Then, coincidentally, Gillian and Jackson each encounter a mysterious yet kindly mentor. Over the next week, while neither one realizes the other is doing the same, both Gillian and Jackson learn the heart of both mentors' philosophies: The Five Secrets of Genuine Influence. The story ends in a way that surprises everyone--and with lessons we can all apply in our efforts to resolve conflicts and influence others.
Book Synopsis Betting on Ideas by : Reuven Brenner
Download or read book Betting on Ideas written by Reuven Brenner and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1989-07-10 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, Reuven Brenner argues that people bet on new ideas and are more willing to take risks when they have been outdone by their fellows on local, national, or international scales. Such bets mean that people deviate from the beaten path and either gamble, commit crimes, or come up with new ideas in art, business, or politics, and ideas concerning war and peace in particular. By using evidence on gambling, crime, and creativity now and during the Industrial Revolution, by examining innovations in English and French inheritance laws and the emergence of welfare legislation, and by looking at what has happened before and after wars, Brenner reaches the conclusion that hope and fear, envy and vanity, sentiments provoked when being leapfrogged, make humans race.
Book Synopsis Your Next Five Moves by : Patrick Bet-David
Download or read book Your Next Five Moves written by Patrick Bet-David and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2021-06 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the creator of Valuetainment, the #1 YouTube channel for entrepreneurs, and “one of the most exciting thinkers” (Ray Dalio, author of Principles) in business today, comes a practical and effective guide for thinking more clearly and achieving your most audacious professional goals. Both successful entrepreneurs and chess grandmasters have the vision to look at the pieces in front of them and anticipate their next five moves. In this book, Patrick Bet-David “helps entrepreneurs understand exactly what they need to do next” (Brian Tracy, author of Eat That Frog!) by translating this skill into a valuable methodology. Whether you feel like you’ve hit a wall, lost your fire, or are looking for innovative strategies to take your business to the next level, Your Next Five Moves has the answers. You will gain: CLARITY on what you want and who you want to be. STRATEGY to help you reason in the war room and the board room. GROWTH TACTICS for good times and bad. SKILLS for building the right team based on strong values. INSIGHT on power plays and the art of applying leverage. Combining these principles and revelations drawn from Patrick’s own rise to successful CEO, Your Next Five Moves is a must-read for any serious executive, strategist, or entrepreneur.
Download or read book Framers written by Kenneth Cukier and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Cukier and his co-authors have a more ambitious project than Kahneman and Harari. They don’t want to just point out how powerfully we are influenced by our perspectives and prejudices—our frames. They want to show us that these frames are tools, and that we can optimise their use.” —Forbes From pandemics to populism, AI to ISIS, wealth inequity to climate change, humanity faces unprecedented challenges that threaten our very existence. The essential tool that will enable humanity to find the best way foward is defined in Framers by internationally renowned authors Kenneth Cukier, Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, and Francis de Véricourt. To frame is to make a mental model that enables us to make sense of new situations. Frames guide the decisions we make and the results we attain. People have long focused on traits like memory and reasoning, leaving framing all but ignored. But with computers becoming better at some of those cognitive tasks, framing stands out as a critical function—and only humans can do it. This book is the first guide to mastering this human ability. Illustrating their case with compelling examples and the latest research, authors Cukier, Mayer-Schönberger, and de Véricourt examine: · Why advice to “think outside the box” is useless · How Spotify beat Apple by reframing music as an experience · How the #MeToo twitter hashtag reframed the perception of sexual assault · The disaster of framing Covid-19 as equivalent to seasonal flu, and how framing it akin to SARS delivered New Zealand from the pandemic Framers shows how framing is not just a way to improve how we make decisions in the era of algorithms—but why it will be a matter of survival for humanity in a time of societal upheaval and machine prosperity.
Book Synopsis Can You Really Think and Grow Rich? by : Ramy El-Batrawi
Download or read book Can You Really Think and Grow Rich? written by Ramy El-Batrawi and published by Extraordinary Life Publications. This book was released on 2021-10-31 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Entrepreneur Ramy El-Batrawi answers the question Can You Think and Grow Rich? with a resounding Yes! Throughout a journey of 48 years during which he lost and regained his fortune more than once, the author applied the principles of Napoleon Hill’s Think and Grow Rich to achieve the extraordinary success that creates an extraordinary life. Ramy left home at 12 and never looked back, continuing on a path that led to business deals with the most influential millionaires and billionaires in the world, as well as battles with prosecutors and unethical investors. This book reveals how Ramy embedded the secrets of Think and Grow Rich into his every waking hour, and refined his approach using keys that you too can employ on your own journey to success. If this book can not help you achieve the success you want then no other book can. The keys that are given have been proven over and over again. It is all based of lasting truth and the way the universe works. Think and Grow Rich introduced it in 1937, and every self help book has been based on the principles he laid out. Millions of people achieved success based on these principles. Ramy pushed the limits of every principle and achieved success that almost no one could believe. This book can get you anything you ever wanted, what is that worth to you. Read Can You Really Think and Grow Rich? Keys to Unlock an Extraordinary Life if you want to change your own life—starting today.
Book Synopsis Live on the Margin by : Patrick Schulte
Download or read book Live on the Margin written by Patrick Schulte and published by bumfuzzle.com. This book was released on 2012-12-16 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What would you do if money were no longer a concern? Surf the best breaks, sail oceans, climb mountains, build schools in third-world countries, write a book, raise Peruvian fainting goats? What would you do if you didn't have to show up for work tomorrow morning? Making that dream happen-stepping into an unknowable future for a life of adventure takes courage, decisiveness, an unwavering belief in yourself, and the willingness to take 100%% responsibility for the outcome. Those happen to be the very same traits that define the successful trader. The skills you learn in pursuing your dream-through trading-might just remove money from the list of reasons you think that you can't fulfill it. This book is about more than trading and personal finance strategies-we propose an entirely new way to evaluate risk, in life as well as in finances. By taking the right risks and ignoring the imagined ones, you'll be paid with the one priceless commodity that is truly limited in your life-time.
Download or read book Trading Bases written by Joe Peta and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2014-03-04 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An ex–Wall Street trader improved on Moneyball’s famed sabermetrics and beat the Vegas odds with his own betting methods. Here is the story of how Joe Peta turned fantasy baseball into a dream come true. Joe Peta turned his back on his Wall Street trading career to pursue an ingenious—and incredibly risky—dream. He would apply his risk-analysis skills to Major League Baseball, and treat the sport like the S&P 500. In Trading Bases, Peta takes us on his journey from the ballpark in San Francisco to the trading floors and baseball bars of New York and the sportsbooks of Las Vegas, telling the story of how he created a baseball “hedge fund” with an astounding 41 percent return in his first year. And he explains the unique methods he developed. Along the way, Peta provides insight into the Wall Street crisis he managed to escape: the fragility of the midnineties investment model; the disgraced former CEO of Lehman Brothers, who recruited Peta; and the high-adrenaline atmosphere where million-dollar sports-betting pools were common.
Download or read book Smart Choices written by John S. Hammond and published by Harvard Business School Press. This book was released on 2015-08 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Where should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, very few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa--experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems--offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: * Evaluate your plans * Break your potential decision into its key elements * Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals * Apply systematic thinking * Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn’t tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you’ll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you’ll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don’t wait until a decision is forced on you--or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.
