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The Track Record Of The Commission Forecast
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Book Synopsis The Track Record of the Commission's Forecast by : A. Melander
Download or read book The Track Record of the Commission's Forecast written by A. Melander and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The track record of the Commission forecast by : Filip Keereman
Download or read book The track record of the Commission forecast written by Filip Keereman and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Track Record of the Commission's Forecast by : A. Melander
Download or read book The Track Record of the Commission's Forecast written by A. Melander and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts by : Filip Keereman
Download or read book The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts written by Filip Keereman and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: El registro de datos de los pronósticos de la Comisión. -Los pronósticos en la Comisión Europea.- Variables y datos.- Método y panorámica.- Características básicas de los datos de muestra.- Características básicas de los errores de pronóstico.- Persistencia de errores de pronóstico.- Imparcialidad.- Eficiencia.- Exactitud a través del tiempo.- Exactitud direccional.- Reconocimiento de ciclos.- Revisión de los pronósticos a través del ciclo.- El contexto internacional.- La interdependencia de los errores de pronóstico.- La susceptibilidad de los errores de pronóstico a un conjunto alternativo de datos de realización.- Comparación con pronósticos externos.
Book Synopsis External Assumptions, the International Environment and the Track Record of the Commission Forecasts by : Filip Keereman
Download or read book External Assumptions, the International Environment and the Track Record of the Commission Forecasts written by Filip Keereman and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While in the Commission Forecasts interest rates, exchange rates or oil prices are treated more like assumptions, it is interesting to test their realism. It appears that these variables are formulated in a reasonably accurate way and that in general alternative assumptions would not improve the picture.
Book Synopsis The Accuracy of the European Commission's Forecasts Re-examined by : Laura González Cabanillas
Download or read book The Accuracy of the European Commission's Forecasts Re-examined written by Laura González Cabanillas and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper analyses the Commission's forecast track record, by building on previous analyses. The extension of the observation period to 2011 allows a first analysis of forecast accuracy during the years of the economic and financial crisis. Over the full timespan, forecasts for the EU and euro area are found to be generally unbiased. The same holds true for the outlook for most Member States, largely confirming earlier results. Moreover, the Commission services track record appears generally in line with that of the OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics, and in some cases better. Finally, while the analysis points to a limited impact of the crisis on the accuracy of the Commission's current-year forecasts, a significant deterioration of the accuracy of year-ahead projections is found. This applies in particular for the forecasts of GDP, investment, inflation and the government budget balance, due mainly to larger forecast errors in the recession year 2009, which by all standards proved exceptional and unanticipated by institutional and market forecasters."--Document home page.
Book Synopsis European Commission's Forecasts Accuracy Revisited by : Marco Fioramanti
Download or read book European Commission's Forecasts Accuracy Revisited written by Marco Fioramanti and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper updates a previous assessment of the European Commission's track record for forecasting key economic variables (González Cabanillas and Terzi 2012) by extending the observation period to 2014. It also examines the accuracy of the Commission's forecasts over a shorter and more recent period (2000-2014) so that a comparison can be made between the performance of forecasts made before and after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Going beyond the 2012 approach, this paper also examines the extent to which forecast errors can be explained by external or technical assumptions that prove incorrect ex post. It also updates the comparison of the Commission's performance vis à vis the OECD, the IMF, a consensus forecast of market economists, and the ECB. Inclusion of the 2012-2014 period lowers the forecasting error for some key variables or leads to no change in others.^Focussing on the years since the turn of the century, current-year and year-ahead forecasting errors for the three main variables examined (GDP growth, inflation and general government balances) have been larger in the crisis and post-crisis period (2008-2014) than in the precrisis period (2000-2007) for a large majority of Member States. This appears mainly to be the result of an anomalously large error in 2009, a year which confounded many forecasters. The country-by-country analysis confirms the finding of earlier studies which show that the Commission's forecasts are largely unbiased. The newly-introduced panel data approach also confirms the absence of bias in current-year GDP forecasts across EU Member States but shows that year-ahead forecasts for GDP growth tend to be slightly over optimistic across the whole sample. The analysis also shows that autocorrelation of forecast errors is not a major issue in the Commission's forecasts.^Other advanced tests shed more light on the performance of the Commission's forecasts, demonstrating that they are directionally accurate and generally beat a naïve forecast but that they are not always efficient in terms of their use of all available data. The decomposition of forecast errors shows that unexpected changes in external assumptions seem to have only a limited impact on current-year GDP growth forecasts. However, more than half of the variance in year-ahead forecast errors appears to come from external assumptions that prove to be incorrect ex post. Finally, the Commission's economic forecasts come out as being more accurate than those of the market and comparable to those of the other international institutions considered.
Book Synopsis FCC Record by : United States. Federal Communications Commission
Download or read book FCC Record written by United States. Federal Communications Commission and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Stability and Growth Pact by : A. Brunila
Download or read book The Stability and Growth Pact written by A. Brunila and published by Springer. This book was released on 2001-09-20 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) encompasses the legislative text and political resolutions regulating fiscal policy and public finances in EMU. The contributions in this volume analyse the institutional, legal, theoretical and empirical aspects of the SGP, examine its development and evaluate its main implications. The authors include academic economists, who provide insightful analysis, and policy makers who have contributed to the shaping of the pact and have a direct responsibility for its implementation. This book is the definitive source of reference on the SGP for academics, policy makes and economists.
Book Synopsis Forecasts in Times of Crises by : Theo S. Eicher
Download or read book Forecasts in Times of Crises written by Theo S. Eicher and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-09 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias, efficiency, and information content to find that IMF forecasts add substantial informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of nominal GDP, public investment, private investment, the current account, net transfers, and government expenditures) exhibit significant forecast bias. Forecasts for low-income countries are the main drivers of forecast bias and inefficiency, reflecting perhaps larger shocks and lower data quality. When we decompose the forecast errors into their sources, we find that forecast errors for private consumption growth are the key contributor to GDP growth forecast errors. Similarly, forecast errors for non-interest expenditure growth and tax revenue growth are crucial determinants of the forecast errors in the growth of fiscal budgets. Forecast errors for balance of payments growth are significantly influenced by forecast errors in goods import growth. The results highlight which macroeconomic aggregates require further attention in future forecast models for countries in crises.
Book Synopsis Panama Canal Commission by : United States. General Accounting Office
Download or read book Panama Canal Commission written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor by : Thomas B. Cochran
Download or read book The Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor written by Thomas B. Cochran and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-09-25 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, Thomas B. Cochran takes a critical look at the economic and environmental arguments which have been made in favour of an early introduction of the liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) as a central component of the United States electrical energy system. First published in 1974, Cochran presents LMFBR as having no environmental advantage over light water reactors and the high temperature gas reactor and seriously questions the economic advantages. This title should be a useful for students interested in environment and sustainability studies, and it is a valuable resource for discussions of future energy strategy.
Book Synopsis Quarterly General Fund Forecast by :
Download or read book Quarterly General Fund Forecast written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Ultimate Resource 2 by : Julian Lincoln Simon
Download or read book The Ultimate Resource 2 written by Julian Lincoln Simon and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page 780 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Arguing that the ultimate resource is the human imagination coupled to the human spirit, Julian Simon led a vigorous challenge to conventional beliefs about scarcity of energy and natural resources, pollution of the environment, the effects of immigration, and the "perils of overpopulation." The comprehensive data, careful quantitative research, and economic logic contained in the first edition of The Ultimate Resource questioned widely held professional judgments about the threat of overpopulation, and Simon's celebrated bet with Paul Ehrlich about resource prices in the 1980s enhanced the public attention--both pro and con--that greeted this controversial book. Now Princeton University Press presents a revised and expanded edition of The Ultimate Resource. The new volume is thoroughly updated and provides a concise theory for the observed trends: Population growth and increased income put pressure on supplies of resources. This increases prices, which provides opportunity and incentive for innovation. Eventually the innovative responses are so successful that prices end up below what they were before the shortages occurred. The book also tackles timely issues such as the supposed rate of species extinction, the "vanishing farmland crisis," and the wastefulness of coercive recycling. In Simon's view, the key factor in natural and world economic growth is our capacity for the creation of new ideas and contributions to knowledge. The more people alive who can be trained to help solve the problems that confront us, the faster we can remove obstacles, and the greater the economic inheritance we shall bequeath to our descendants. In conjunction with the size of the educated population, the key constraint on human progress is the nature of the economic-political system: talented people need economic freedom and security to bring their talents to fruition.
Book Synopsis China in the World Economy by : Zhongmin Wu
Download or read book China in the World Economy written by Zhongmin Wu and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-03-30 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's economy continues to grow at a great rate, with important consequences for China's society and environment, as well as for the wider world economy. Reforms are being undertaken in many areas within China, both to encourage continued economic growth and also to mitigate the adverse effects of growth on society and the environment. This book, based on extensive original research by a wide range of leading experts, examines many key issues connected to China's economic growth and its impact. Subjects covered amongst many others include: growth and inequality; labour market reforms; technological innovations and their impact; employment, unemployment and training; and the search for economic development that is ecologically sustainable.
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2007 Issue 2 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2007 Issue 2 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2007-12-06 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends and makes economic projections covering the next two years. This issue's special feature covers corporate saving and investment.
Book Synopsis New England Can Reduce Its Oil Dependence Through Conservation and Renewable Resource Development by : United States. General Accounting Office
Download or read book New England Can Reduce Its Oil Dependence Through Conservation and Renewable Resource Development written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 618 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: