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The Threat Of Inadvertent Nuclear War In South Asia
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Book Synopsis The Threat of Inadvertent Nuclear War in South Asia by : Matthew G. Gurgel
Download or read book The Threat of Inadvertent Nuclear War in South Asia written by Matthew G. Gurgel and published by . This book was released on 2001-03-01 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis assesses the potential for a specific type of accidental nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. Known as inadvertent war, such a conflict would be the result of a mistaken attempt at preemption, the launching of a nuclear attack by one nation in the mistaken belief that the other was doing likewise or was about to do so. While nuclear weapons can ordinarily be expected to exert a sobering influence on decision-makers, an escalating spiral of military activity during a crisis may generate different situational imperatives. Inadvertent war becomes possible when decision- makers perceive that conflict is inevitable and that there is a significant advantage in striking first. Evidence suggests that there is good reason for concern about the threat of inadvertent nuclear war in South Asia. The nuclear force structures adopted by India and Pakistan can be expected to exert a particularly strong influence on the potential for both of the necessary conditions for inadvertent war. The current arsenals of these countries, small and heavily dependant upon aircraft for weapons delivery, may invite preemption in the event that nuclear war appears imminent. If India and Pakistan increase their nuclear delivery capabilities by deploying nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, the potential for inadvertent war will be even greater. In the context of a military confrontation in South Asia, ballistic missiles are likely to contribute both to perceptions of first-strike advantage and to reinforcing military alerts that can lead to the belief that nuclear war is inevitable.
Book Synopsis Assessing the Risk of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan by : Stephen A. Smith
Download or read book Assessing the Risk of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan written by Stephen A. Smith and published by . This book was released on 2002-12-01 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional warfare between India and Pakistan could inadvertently escalate to nuclear warfare. Asymmetries in military doctrine and capability undermine deterrence stability and could lead to the use of nuclear weapons if the two nations become engaged in a large-scale conventional conflict. Following the 1998 nuclear weapons test, the 1999 Kargil Conflict played out tinder the nuclear umbrella, but remained very limited. However, there is a growing gap in conventional military capabilities, and growing pressure in India to retaliate against Pakistan for its alleged support of terrorism and insurgency. India has invested heavily in force modernization, potentially changing the scope of conventional military operations and leading to Pakistan's inadvertent use of nuclear weapons. This thesis examines the possibility of inadvertent nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan. It analyzes the deterrence system that is evolving in South Asia, and describes the conditions tinder which the system could fail. Large-scale conventional war could threaten the survival of strategic forces, or threaten vital strategic command and control functions. Finally, Pakistan could adopt a launch-on-warning posture to guard against an Indian pre-emptive attack. This thesis concludes by recommending steps that the United States could take to ensure peace and decrease de-stabilizing factors in the region.
Book Synopsis Inadvertent Escalation by : Barry R. Posen
Download or read book Inadvertent Escalation written by Barry R. Posen and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.
Book Synopsis Miscalculation: Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War by : Saghir Iqbal
Download or read book Miscalculation: Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War written by Saghir Iqbal and published by Saghir Iqbal . This book was released on 2018-04-16 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An impending nuclear holocaust is likely to happen, if the world community does not take action. A conflict that has been simmering for many years is beginning to spiral out of control. Two nuclear powers have an unresolved dispute that has increased tensions in the region. Both countries are purchasing and developing sophisticated state-of-the-art weapons that could unleash great terror and destruction on the populations of both countries – with also serious global ramifications. The world’s most dangerous flashpoint, has the highest chance of a nuclear war occurring – it is deemed by many to be more serious that the Cuban Missile Crisis and North Korea’s nuclear sabre rattling. The dispute needs to be amicably resolved between both nations and confidence building measures need to be implemented.
Book Synopsis Second Strike by : Rajesh Rajagopalan
Download or read book Second Strike written by Rajesh Rajagopalan and published by Viking. This book was released on 2005 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In May 1998 India tested a series of nuclear devices in Pokharan. Two weeks later Pakistan announced a matching series of its own tests. A year later, when the two countries had a bitter confrontation in Kargil, the worst fears of 'proliferation pessimists' appeared to be coming true. The alarm bells have never really stopped ringing since then. In Second Strike Rajesh Rajagopalan challenges much of the conventional wisdom on the perceived nuclear danger in the region and suggests that the nuclear situation in South Asia is far less dangerous, and much more stable, than it is generally given credit for. Presenting a threefold case, the author focuses on the impact of nuclear doctrines on stability, a hitherto neglected aspect of the nuclear debate, and argues that Indian and Pakistani doctrines reduce the pressures on the two nuclear forces. Next, he presents the view that the doctrines of the two countries lessen the likelihood of accidents and other dangers such as terrorists stealing nuclear weapons. - the crucial role played by political leaders - and contends that political leaders tighten control over nuclear weapons in critical situations.
Book Synopsis Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures and Restraint Regime in South Asia by : Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Download or read book Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures and Restraint Regime in South Asia written by Zafar Nawaz Jaspal and published by Manohar Publishers. This book was released on 2004 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Book Examines The Prospects Of `Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures And A Restraint Regime In South Asia` Which Would Minimize The Risks Of Accidental, Unauthorized, Or Inadvertent Use Of Indian And/Or Pakistani Nuclear Weapons. It Recommends Effective Barriers Against The Danger Of Loose Nukes And Facility-Related Problems. Furthermore, The Book Explains The Nuclear Perils In The South Asian Strategic Environment, Along With Possible Solutions For Viable Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures And A Nuclear Restraint Regime In South Asia.
Book Synopsis Nuclear Risk Reduction in South Asia by : Michael Krepon
Download or read book Nuclear Risk Reduction in South Asia written by Michael Krepon and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert Road Map for Reducing Nuclear Dangers in South Asia The advent of nuclear weapons has not made the Indian Subcontinent a safer or a more stable place. Pakistan, in fact, views its nuclear weapons as a great equalizer vis-Ã -vis India's superiority in conventional forces, something which facilitates its support to militancy in Kashmir. Crises over Kashmir have subsequently grown both more frequent and more intense. The two countries clashed in Kargil in 1999 under the nuclear shadow and again fully mobilized their forces during 2002. The sobering fact, however, is that there are no instances of a successful, limited war between nuclear states. The need for reducing the risks of nuclear conflagration in South Asia is therefore urgent and calls for cooperation, political will and wisdom on the parts of Indian and Pakistani leaders and people. Equally, it requires a clear understanding and implementation of measures that can reduce the risk of a nuclear war. In this book, a dozen experts from India, Pakistan and the US provide precisely such a road map
Book Synopsis The Politics of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia by : Bhumitra Chakma
Download or read book The Politics of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia written by Bhumitra Chakma and published by Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2011 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An important and critical re-evaluation of South Asia's post-tests nuclear politics. Unlike other books, this volume emphasises the political dimension of South Asia's nuclear weapons, explains how the bombs are used as politico-strategic assets rather than pure battlefield weapons and how they are employed by India and Pakistan in an extremely complex and competitive South Asian strategic landscape.
Book Synopsis The Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation by : Devin T. Hagerty
Download or read book The Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation written by Devin T. Hagerty and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hagerty analyzes how India and Pakistan interacted in diplomatic and military crises before their 1998 nuclear tests. He presents detailed studies of the January 1987 Indo-Pakistani crisis, precipitated by India's Brasstacks military exercises, and the 1990 confrontation over Kashmir. Hagerty concludes that relations between India and Pakistan in recent years support the argument that nuclear proliferation does not necessarily destabilize international relations and may even reduce the risk of war.
Book Synopsis Too Close for Comfort by : Patricia Lewis
Download or read book Too Close for Comfort written by Patricia Lewis and published by Chatham House Publishers. This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cases of near nuclear use due to misunderstanding demonstrate the importance of the human judgment factor in nuclear decisionmaking. This report applies a risk lens, based on factoring probability and consequence, to a set of cases of near use and instances of sloppy practices from 1962 to 2013.
Book Synopsis Inadvertent Nuclear War by : Hå. Wiberg
Download or read book Inadvertent Nuclear War written by Hå. Wiberg and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the dramatic end of the Pacific War in 1945 the threat of nuclear war has exercised the minds of many. Initial fears concerned the risk that a political crisis between the Superpowers would escalate through miltary confrontation into a 'calculated' nuclear war. Another scenario pictured a new Hitler commanding a nuclear-capable state prepared to use such weapons 'irrationally', possibly sparking a 'catalytic' nuclear war between the major Powers. More recently attention has shifted towards the risk of the 'accidental' release of nuclear weapons. While the risk of intentional conflict between the major Powers has lessened, the arsenals have only been marginally reduced, leaving the possibility of accidental release as perhaps the most threatening case. Inadvertent Nuclear War presents the risk in terms of the reliability and instability of the human and technical systems governing release, with contributions ranging from the engineering of computer software to the psychology of the chain of command. As Dr Wiberg states in his introduction, "No known technical construction, human being or social organization is absolutely failsafe."
Book Synopsis India and Nuclear Asia by : Yogesh Joshi
Download or read book India and Nuclear Asia written by Yogesh Joshi and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: India's nuclear profile, doctrine, and practices have evolved rapidly since the country's nuclear breakout in 1998. However, the outside world's understanding of India's doctrinal debates, forward-looking strategy, and technical developments are still two decades behind the present. This book will fill that gap in our knowledge by focusing on the post-1998 evolution of Indian nuclear thought, its arsenal, the triangular rivalry with Pakistan and China, and New Delhi's nonproliferation policy approaches. Joshi and O'Donnell show how India's nuclear trajectory has evolved in response to domestic, regional, and global drivers. The book argues that doctrinal and posturing developments in India, China, and Pakistan are elevating inadvertent and accidental escalation risks. As nuclear South Asia continues to attract global concern, this book provides an indispensable and timely guide to its challenges and offers potential solutions to them. Based on primary-source research and interviews, this book will be important reading for scholars and students of India's international relations and security as well as for military, defense contractor, and policy audiences outside of India.
Book Synopsis War and Escalation in South Asia by : John E. Peters
Download or read book War and Escalation in South Asia written by John E. Peters and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The advent of two nuclear powers in South Asia, discoveries of nuclear trafficking, and insurgencies and terrorism that threaten important U.S. interests and objectives directly have transformed the region from a strategic backwater into a primary theater of concern for the United States. The United States, to a great extent free of the restrictions of earlier sanction regimes and attentive to the region's central role in the global war on terrorism (GWOT), has engaged the states of South Asia aggressively with a wide variety of policy initiatives. Despite the diversity of policy instruments, few are very powerful; indeed, only the U.S. military seems to offer many options for Washington to intensify further its security cooperation and influence in the region. This monograph highlights key factors in the region that imperil U.S. interests, and suggests how and where the U.S. military might play an expanded, influential role. The report notes that the current U.S. military force posture, disposition, and lines of command may not be optimal, given South Asia's new status in the U.S. strategic calculus, and suggests seven key steps the military might take to improve its ability to advance and defend U.S. interests, not only in South Asia, but beyond it, including the Middle East and Asia at large. Beyond the specifics, however, the broader message arising from this analysis is straightforward: the region's salience for U.S. policy interests has increased dramatically. It is therefore prudent to intensify Washington's involvement in the region and to devote the resources necessary to become more influential with the governments within the region. Given the area's potential for violence, it is also prudent to shape a part of the U.S. military to meet the potential crises emanating from South Asia, just as the United States once shaped its military presence in Western Europe for the contingencies of the Cold War.
Book Synopsis India's Emerging Nuclear Posture by : Ashley J. Tellis
Download or read book India's Emerging Nuclear Posture written by Ashley J. Tellis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2001 with total page 928 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book brings together the many pieces of India's nuclear puzzle and the ramifications for South Asia. The author examines the choices facing India from New Delhi's point of view in order to discern which future courses of action appear most appealing to Indian security managers. He details how such choices, if acted upon, would affect U.S. strategic interests, India's neighbors, and the world."--BOOK JACKET.
Download or read book On the Brink written by Van Jackson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Former Pentagon insider Van Jackson explores how Trump and Kim reached - and avoided - the precipice of nuclear war.
Book Synopsis Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia by : Rizwana Abbasi
Download or read book Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia written by Rizwana Abbasi and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-06-25 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new technologies, and changing deterrent force postures in the South Asian region to assess future challenges for sustainable peace and stability. Under the core principles of the security dilemma, this book analyzes the prevailing security environment in South Asia and offers unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral frameworks to stabilize peace and ensure deterrence stability in the South Asian region. Moreover, contending patterns of deterrence dynamics in the South Asian region are further elaborated as becoming inextricably interlinked with the broader security dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region and the interactions with the United States and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. As India and Pakistan are increasingly becoming part of the competing strategies exercised by the United States and China, the authors analyze how strategic uncertainty and fear faced by these rival states cause the introduction of new technologies which could gradually drift these competing states into more serious crises and military conflicts. Presenting innovative solutions to emerging South Asian challenges and offering new security mechanisms for sustainable peace and stability, this book will be of interest to academics and policymakers working on Asian Security studies, Nuclear Strategy, and International Relations.
Book Synopsis The Future of Land Warfare by : Michael E. O'Hanlon
Download or read book The Future of Land Warfare written by Michael E. O'Hanlon and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2015-08-31 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What happens if we bet too heavily on unmanned systems, cyber warfare, and special operations in our defense? In today's U.S. defense policy debates, big land wars are out. Drones, cyber weapons, special forces, and space weapons are in. Accordingly, Pentagon budget cuts have honed in on the army and ground forces: this, after the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, seems like an appealing idea. No one really wants American boots on the ground in bloody conflicts abroad. But it is not so easy to simply declare an end to messy land wars. A survey of the world's trouble spots suggests that land warfare has more of a future than many now seem to believe. In The Future of Land Warfare, Michael O'Hanlon offers an analysis of the future of the world's ground forces: Where are large-scale conflicts or other catastrophes most plausible? Which of these could be important enough to require the option of a U.S. military response? And which of these could in turn demand significant numbers of American ground forces in their resolution? O'Hanlon is not predicting or advocating big American roles in such operations—only cautioning against overconfidence that we can and will avoid them. O'Hanlon considers a number of illustrative scenarios in which large conventional forces may be necessary: discouraging Russia from even contemplating attacks against the Baltic states; discouraging China from considering an unfriendly future role on the Korean peninsula; handling an asymmetric threat in the South China Sea with the construction and protection of a number of bases in the Philippines and elsewhere; managing the aftermath of a major and complex humanitarian disaster superimposed on a security crisis—perhaps in South Asia; coping with a severe Ebola outbreak not in the small states of West Africa but in Nigeria, at the same time that country falls further into violence; addressing a further meltdown in security conditions in Central America.
