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Author : Mark E. Brooks
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (152 download)
Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle - Business Cycle Relationship written by Mark E. Brooks and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : J. Joseph Beaulieu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles written by J. Joseph Beaulieu and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a recent paper Barsky and Miron (1989) examine the seasonal fluctuations in the U.S. economy. They show that the key stylized facts about the business cycle characterize the seasonal cycle as well, and they suggest that the interpretation of many of these stylized facts over the seasonal cycle is easier than interpretation over the business cycle. The reason is that the ultimate sources of seasonal cycles are more readily identifiable than those of business cycles. This paper uses the cross country variation in seasonal patterns to pin down the ultimate sources of seasonal variation more precisely than is possible from examination of U.S. data alone. We conclude that a Christmas shift in preferences and synergies across agents are the key determinants of the seasonal patterns around the world. The paper also establishes that, across developed countries, the key observations about aggregate variables that characterize the business cycle also characterize the seasonal cycle. Thus, the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle demonstrated by Barsky and Miron (1989) for the united states is a robust stylized fact.
Author : Jeffrey A. Miron
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262133234
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (332 download)
Download or read book The Economics of Seasonal Cycles written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on economic rather than purely statistical issues, looking at which of the alternative statistical models of seasonality are plausible for economic variables, and asking why seasonal fluctuations in economic variables require special treatment relative to other kinds of fluctuations.
Author : Robert B. Barsky
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data. This paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right. We document the quantitative importance of seasonal fluctuations, and we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in a set of standard macroeconomic variables. Our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables. The timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarter, a large decrease in the first quarter, and a mild decrease in the third quarter. The paper demonstrates that, with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles, the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle, in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle. That is, we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies, output movements across broadly defined sectors move together, the timing of production and sales coincide closely, labor productivity is procyclical, nominal money and real output are highly correlated, and prices vary less than quantities. There is a "seasonal business cycle" in the United States economy, and its characteristics mirror closely those of the conventional business cycle.
Author : Noha Emara
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book An Analysis of the Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Noha Emara and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron (1989) revealed the seasonal cycle of the U.S. economy from 1948 to 1985 was characterized by a "bubble-like" expansion in the second and fourth quarters, a "crash-like" contraction in the first quarter, and a mild contraction in the third quarter. We replicate, in part, their seasonal cycle analysis from 1946 to 2001. Our results are largely in line with theirs. Nonetheless, we find the seasonal cycle is not stable and can evolve across time. In particular, the Great Moderation affected both the business cycle and the seasonal cycle.Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron also found real aggregates, like the output, move together in the seasonal cycle across broadly defined sectors, similar to a phenomenon observed under the conventional business cycle. They posed a challenge question concerning why "the seasonal and the conventional business cycles are so similar.'' To answer their question, we focus on a number of aggregate variables with a recursive application of the HP filter and find that aggregates, such as the GDP, consumption, the S&P 500 Index, and so forth, have a "bubble-like" expansion and a "crash-like" contraction in their cyclical trends in business cycle frequencies. Although preference shifts and production synergy are the two major forces that drive the seasonal cycle, we find the time-varying stochastic discount factor is the main cause of the business cycle and plays a more important role in macroeconomic fluctuations in business cycle frequencies than other factors.
Author : Ghysels, Eric
Publisher : Montréal : Université de Montréal, Dép. de sciences économiques
ISBN 13 : 9782893820965
Total Pages : 10 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (29 download)
Download or read book The Business Cycle, the Seasonal Cycle Or Just Any Cycle written by Ghysels, Eric and published by Montréal : Université de Montréal, Dép. de sciences économiques. This book was released on 1990 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Maurice Beck Hexter
Publisher : Boston ; New York : Houghton Mifflin
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 242 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Social Consequences of Business Cycles written by Maurice Beck Hexter and published by Boston ; New York : Houghton Mifflin. This book was released on 1925 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Robert Shimer
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400835232
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Labor Markets and Business Cycles written by Robert Shimer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.
Author : Zheng Liu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)
Download or read book Understanding Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy written by Zheng Liu and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226978923
Total Pages : 613 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (8 download)
Download or read book What Happens During Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1951 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author : Dorothy Swaine Thomas
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317518659
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (175 download)
Download or read book Social Aspects of the Business Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles) written by Dorothy Swaine Thomas and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-27 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using statistical analysis, this volume, originally published in 1925, examines the sociological aspects of the business cycle. It discusses which areas of social activity are influenced by the business cycle and measures the relative degree of this influence in each of the areas which are covered. Bringing together the work of economists and criminologists, this volume discusses topics such as births, deaths, poverty, crime, emigration and marriage in relation to business cycles.
Author : Robert B. Barsky
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Matthew J. Kotchen
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226821749
Total Pages : 275 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (268 download)
Download or read book Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy written by Matthew J. Kotchen and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-01-24 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents six new papers on environmental and energy economics and policy in the United States. Rebecca Davis, J. Scott Holladay, and Charles Sims analyze recent trends in and forecasts of coal-fired power plant retirements with and without new climate policy. Severin Borenstein and James Bushnell examine the efficiency of pricing for electricity, natural gas, and gasoline. James Archsmith, Erich Muehlegger, and David Rapson provide a prospective analysis of future pathways for electric vehicle adoption. Kenneth Gillingham considers the consequences of such pathways for the design of fuel vehicle economy standards. Frank Wolak investigates the long-term resource adequacy in wholesale electricity markets with significant intermittent renewables. Finally, Barbara Annicchiarico, Stefano Carattini, Carolyn Fischer, and Garth Heutel review the state of research on the interactions between business cycles and environmental policy.
Author : Robert E. Carpenter
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output written by Robert E. Carpenter and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of inventory investment in the business cycle is well known. Its role in the seasonal cycle is less well known. We examine the variation of inventory investment and its comovement with output over the seasonal and business cycles. We measure the deterministic and stochastic seasonal components of monthly disaggregated inventory data and find seasonality contributes about 75 percent of the total variance, similar to the proportion found in GDP. We find that inventory investment and output exhibit high correlation, with similar magnitudes, at seasonal and business cycle frequencies. These findings are consistent with the idea that seasonal cycles and business cycles are propagated through similar mechanisms and suggest that inventory investment may play as important a role in the seasonal cycle as it does in the business cycle.
