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The Price Cap On Russian Oil
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Book Synopsis The Price Cap on Russian Oil by : Henrik Wachtmeister
Download or read book The Price Cap on Russian Oil written by Henrik Wachtmeister and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A price cap on Russian crude oil, at 60 USD/barrel, was implemented in December 2022. Using parsimonious modeling and detailed Russian oil-field data, this paper studies the price cap's impact on the Russian economy, global winners and losers and how a cap at different levels affects these dynamics as well as the potential for Russian retaliation. A cap at 60 USD/barrel implies substantial Russian producer losses, and in turn government income losses, of several per cent of GDP. But since the cap diverts oil supply from exports to the Russian domestic market, the losses are partly offset by Russian consumer benefits. Russian net losses are, however, substantial: for every 5 USD that the cap is below the baseline world oil price, Russian net losses are equivalent to around 1% of its GDP (around 30% of pre-Ukraine-invasion military spending). Oil importers generally benefit from a cap as it works like a buyers' cartel, except if the cap is very low (30 USD/barrel and below) in the long run. Among the major oil importers, India and China are the main beneficiaries due to their oil-intensive economies. A price cap of 40-50 USD/barrel maximizes oil importers' benefits in the short run and implies virtually no Russian export reduction. In the long run, a cap of 50-60 USD/barrel maximizes oil importer's benefits. However, every additional reduction of the cap by 5 USD imposes an additional Russian loss of 54 million USD/day (around 1% of GDP). Hence, if oil importers put even a small weight on restricting Russian income, a cap much lower than today is motivated. Russian retaliation through voluntary oil-export restrictions is, however, more likely under a lower cap since such retaliation hurts Russia less and oil importers more when the price cap is low. For a cap at 60 USD/barrel, the credibility of export-restriction threats hinges on Russia prioritizing importers' harm much more than own-profit maximization. For a cap at 30 USD/barrel, it is sufficient that Russia puts equal weight on harm and own profit for the threat to be credible.
Download or read book The Laundromat written by and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this briefing we have focussed on Russian crude oil transported via shipments to countries that we have identified as ʻlaundromat countriesʼ. These countries have increased Russian crude imports as well as oil product exports, especially to price cap imposing countries. As Russia is forced to offer discounted oil to ensure it is able to find buyers, the laundromat countries are refining larger volumes of imported Russian crude to then export the refined products to sanction imposing countries. The price cap coalition countries are responsible for the vast majority of the increase in laundromat countries' exports of oil products since the start of Russiaʼs invasion.
Book Synopsis The Price Cap on Russian Oil: a Progress Report by : Elizabeth Rosenberg (Policy scientist)
Download or read book The Price Cap on Russian Oil: a Progress Report written by Elizabeth Rosenberg (Policy scientist) and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Russian Oil Economy by : Jennifer I. Considine
Download or read book The Russian Oil Economy written by Jennifer I. Considine and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2002 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Considine (an analyst with Engage Energy Canada) and Kerr (University of Saskatchewan) argue that Russia will occupy a strategic role in the future world energy market. This book details the development of the Russian oil economy and provides an overview of its position in the coming century. It assesses the policies and institutions of the Russian Federation, and offers recommendations and forecasts. Statistics are provided, representing reserves, production, and tax rates from 1860 to 2000. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Book Synopsis A Theory of Price Caps on Non-Renewable Resources by : Simon Johnson
Download or read book A Theory of Price Caps on Non-Renewable Resources written by Simon Johnson and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In December 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a G7-led coalition of countries imposed a $60 per barrel price cap on the sales of Russian oil that use western services. This paper provides a theoretical and quantitative analysis of this new tool. We build a tractable equilibrium model in which the financially constrained exporter of a non-renewable resource optimally exerts market power, and the price of the resource varies stochastically. An important insight from this framework is that the supply curve is inelastic and can even be downward sloping, rationalizing the patterns we observe in the data. Contrary to the fears that an introduction of the price cap will cause a damaging oil supply shock, the exporter may have strong incentives to increase extraction following the introduction of a binding price cap. In fact, when the producer is large and has market power, a price cap that applies to all or most sales significantly limits the degree to which market power is used in equilibrium and stabilizes world oil prices. But if the cap is poorly enforced, or if the sanctioned state has access to a non-compliant "shadow" fleet, the cap is less effective at stabilizing world prices.
Book Synopsis Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports by : Tania Babina
Download or read book Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports written by Tania Babina and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a unique high-frequency Russian customs dataset to evaluate the impact of international sanctions on Russia -- focusing on Russian crude oil and oil products exports, as they are the key sources of export earnings and government revenues. We study the effects of two focal sanctions measures -- the EU embargo and G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil, which both took effect on December 5, 2022. We find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India, China, and Turkey but that export earnings were curbed substantially by the sizable discounts that Russian exporters had to accept in market segments where the impeding EU embargo lowered demand, e.g., exports from Baltic Sea ports -- a dynamic that only became more pronounced after the embargo and price cap’s taking effect. However, we do not find crude oil discounts as large as those reflected in Urals prices towards the end of 2022. In particular, prices in market segments that are unaffected by lower European demand, e.g., exports from Russia’s Pacific Ocean ports, have not dropped in a meaningful way and shipments do not appear to comply with the price cap. What the EU embargo and G7 price cap have, thus, triggered is a fundamental fragmentation of the market for Russian crude oil. Based on our analysis, we conclude that a central focus of policy going forward should be the enforcement of existing sanctions on Russian oil -- along with the lowering of the oil price cap. As far as oil products are concerned, we show that it is significantly less feasible to redirect exports away from the European market. This suggests that the EU embargo on oil products, which took effect on February 5, 2023, will prove to be a powerful additional tool to further curb Russian export and fiscal revenues.
Book Synopsis Russian Oil Exports Under International Sanctions by : Benjamin Hilgenstock
Download or read book Russian Oil Exports Under International Sanctions written by Benjamin Hilgenstock and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a unique, comprehensive transactions-level dataset on Russian exports to evaluate the impact of international sanctions--focusing on crude oil and oil products. Relying on data through the first quarter of 2023, we find that the sanctions coalition's strategy to keep Russian oil on the global market, while restricting the country's export earnings and fiscal revenues, is showing results. Importantly, global oil prices did not increase since the taking-effect of the EU embargo on crude oil on December 5, 2022--a key concern of some coalition governments. Rather, discounts on Russian crude oil exports widened considerably in segments of the market, where demand conditions changed due to the exit of European buyers. Russian crude oil and oil product exports, in value terms, fell by $15.6 billion in 2023Q1 vs. 2022Q4 and account for 40% of the total decline in goods exports. We estimate contributions of 6.1 billion from smaller volumes, $4.2 billion from lower global prices, as well as $5.2 billion from wider discounts. At the same time, 2023Q1 budget revenues from hydrocarbons came in 47% below the previous quarter. Even so, our findings also point to violations of the price cap and underscore the urgent need for more rigorous enforcement. Specifically, export prices at the critical Pacific Ocean port of Kozmino stood at around $73/barrel in 2023Q1--with 96% of volumes sold above the $60/barrel threshold--, while a substantial share of shipments continues to involve Western-owned or -insured vessels. Based on our analysis, we conclude that a critical focus of sanctions policy going forward should be the enforcement of existing sanctions on Russian oil.
Download or read book One Year of Sanctions written by and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The EU ban on Russian oil and the G7 price cap has cost Russia an estimated EUR 34 bn in lost oil export revenue, lowering export earnings by 14% during the first year of the sanctions. The sanctions have worked mainly by lowering Russian oil prices compared to global prices. The declining effect of the sanctions is due to the failure of G7 and EU governments to enforce and strengthen the price cap. The G7 and the EU retain a stranglehold on Russia's oil exports but have baulked at using it. Given Russiaʼs ongoing reliance on European tankers and insurance, stronger enforcement and lower price-cap levels can multiply the impact of the sanctions. Measures to close the “refining loophole” and curtail the increase in “shadow” tanker capacity and activities can further enhance the impact.
Book Synopsis Using Energy Sanctions to Shorten the War by : International Working Group on Russian Sanctions
Download or read book Using Energy Sanctions to Shorten the War written by International Working Group on Russian Sanctions and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Russia is heavily dependent on oil and gas earnings, which finance Russia’s imports and budget, and thereby Russia’s war on Ukraine. In response to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s allies have targeted energy – the lifeblood of the Russian economy – through broad embargos on Russian oil and coal, including an oil price cap, and slashing purchases of Russian gas. Unfortunately, just as energy sanctions start to bite, Russia is having some success in circumventing them, with some 35% of its seaborne exports transported by tankers not subject to the price cap. With Russian oil now on average selling above the price cap, and Russia maintaining and even increasing pipeline and LNG gas sales to Europe, Moscow is poised to recapture some of its lost energy revenues. To reinforce our steadfast support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression, we propose improved implementation to prevent Russia circumventing current sanctions, as well as proposing further options to increase pressure and shorten the war.
Book Synopsis Wheel of Fortune by : Thane Gustafson
Download or read book Wheel of Fortune written by Thane Gustafson and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 673 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Foreign Affairs Best Book of the Year on Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Republics The Russian oil industry—which vies with Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest producer and exporter of oil, providing nearly 12 percent of the global supply—is facing mounting problems that could send shock waves through the Russian economy and worldwide. Wheel of Fortune provides an authoritative account of this vital industry from the last years of communism to its uncertain future. Tracking the interdependence among Russia’s oil industry, politics, and economy, Thane Gustafson shows how the stakes extend beyond international energy security to include the potential threat of a destabilized Russia. “Few have studied the Russian oil and gas industry longer or with a broader political perspective than Gustafson. The result is this superb book, which is not merely a fascinating, subtle history of the industry since the Soviet Union’s collapse but also the single most revealing work on Russian politics and economics published in the last several years.” —Robert Legvold, Foreign Affairs “The history of Russia’s oil industry since the collapse of communism is the history of the country itself. There can be few better guides to this terrain than Thane Gustafson.” —Neil Buckley, Financial Times
Book Synopsis The Oil Fields of Russia and the Russian Petroleum Industry by : Arthur Beeby-Thompson
Download or read book The Oil Fields of Russia and the Russian Petroleum Industry written by Arthur Beeby-Thompson and published by . This book was released on 1904 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Russia's oil in America's future by :
Download or read book Russia's oil in America's future written by and published by Hoover Press. This book was released on with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Presidents George Bush and Vladimir Putin will hold a summit at the end of September that will focus on economic and other ties between the United States and Russia. The two presidents have long recognized the central position of energy in our bilateral relations, and in that sphere, nothing is as critical as oil. Today Russia may again be the largest oil exporter in the world, but very little yet comes to the United States. Russia's oil industry is dominated by rich and aggressive young private companies. Generally, they are eager to deal with foreigners, but despite significant state reforms they often are still inhibited by a dilapidated, state-controlled delivery system and a residue of traditional thinking and institutions. Many of Russia's as-yet-unresolved post-Soviet prob-lems exploded in mid-2003 when the prosecutor general's office attacked Yukos, the country's most modernized, productive and pro-American private oil company. Thus even as Washington and American oil industry leaders actively sought alternatives to unstable sources in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, basic questions re-emerged in Russia about the privatizations of the 1990s, the security of private property, the mixing of law and politics, and the exercise of power in the Kremlin. Today Russians, with the support of American and European allies, must create conditions that will welcome the foreign funds, technology, and expertise needed to develop the critical oil industry but also to lay foundations of law and infrastructure that will help make Russia a stable member of the world community. Americans must decide how much involvement Russia can constructively absorb to promote not only short-term oil supplies but also long-term Russian development and broader U.S. foreign policy goals. Finally, the critical long-term lesson of 9/11 and other recent experiences for Americans is that even as we cultivate Russia as an ally and major source of oil, we must actively develop alternative sources of energy. In an unstable world, the United States must not forever be held hostage by other nations with their often very different cultures, institutions and interests."--Summary.
Book Synopsis The Agony of Russian Oil by : Thane Gustafson
Download or read book The Agony of Russian Oil written by Thane Gustafson and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Political Economy of Russian Oil by : David Lane
Download or read book The Political Economy of Russian Oil written by David Lane and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 1999 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the dominant export-oriented industries in Russia, oil is a major source of tax revenue and wealth. The privatization of these vast assets has made the industry a site not only for conflict between power holders but also a strategic target for international corporations and Western governments. In this thoughtful analysis, a group of international specialists explores the political and economic issues and controversies surrounding the oil industry's move to capitalism. The authors examine the spread of crime and corruption, the role of Russian and Western financial institutions, regional tensions, and the international dimension. As a paradigm for the Russian economy as a whole, the case of oil industry provides invaluable insights for understanding the political and economic problems confronting Russia today.
Book Synopsis Shifting Political Economy of Russian Oil and Gas by : Tatiana Mitrova
Download or read book Shifting Political Economy of Russian Oil and Gas written by Tatiana Mitrova and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Russia is one of the world's largest hydrocarbon resource holders, producers, and exporters, but it is undergoing an uncertain economic and energy transition. An economic slowdown, the dual shocks of a sharp decline in oil prices and the imposition of finance and technology-oriented sanctions, shifting markets for Russia's exports, and internal economic and political dynamics are spurring dramatic changes in Russia's domestic and international oil and gas strategies. These changes, while not predetermined, will impact geopolitics, energy security, oil and gas investment, and global hydrocarbon market dynamics in the near to medium term. Given the sheer size of Russia's hydrocarbon production, the importance of oil and gas revenue to the health of Russia's economy, and Russia's role as an exporter and provider of hydrocarbon infrastructure, this study fills a crucial gap by analyzing the evolution of Russia's oil and gas sector and its anticipated realignment.
Book Synopsis Sensitivity of Crude Oil Price Change to Major Global Factors and to Russian-Ukraine War Crisis by : Ibrahim Onour
Download or read book Sensitivity of Crude Oil Price Change to Major Global Factors and to Russian-Ukraine War Crisis written by Ibrahim Onour and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, we employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares, and maximum likelihood estimator, in addition to OLS regression mode; using yearly data from 1965 to 2021. Our findings indicate change in oil prices due to 1% change in any of the explanatory variables, as follows: the effect of the US dollar depreciation rate, raise crude oil price/barrel by 71 US cents; and increase in OPEC production, decrease crude oil price by 82 US cents; a decrease in non-OPEC production, raise oil price by 4.78 US$. These results imply that, if a ban imposed on Russian crude oil export, and no increase in OPEC production to compensate Russian oil loss in the international markets, global crude oil price expected to rise by 88 US$ above its level before Russian-Ukraine crisis, meaning that crude oil price expected to rise at 160 US$ pb12. However, if OPEC members increase their output level by 10 million barrels per day to compensate the Russian oil loss, then global crude oil price expected to stay at 102 US$ pb.
Book Synopsis Statement of the G7 and Australia on a Price Cap for Seaborne Russian-origin Crude Oil by : Chrystia Freeland
Download or read book Statement of the G7 and Australia on a Price Cap for Seaborne Russian-origin Crude Oil written by Chrystia Freeland and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
