The Predictioneers Game

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The Predictioneer's Game

Author : Bruce Bueno De Mesquita
Publisher : Random House Trade Paperbacks
ISBN 13 : 081297977X
Total Pages : 290 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Predictioneer's Game by : Bruce Bueno De Mesquita

Download or read book The Predictioneer's Game written by Bruce Bueno De Mesquita and published by Random House Trade Paperbacks. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone). Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.

Future Babble

Author : Dan Gardner
Publisher : McClelland & Stewart
ISBN 13 : 0771035217
Total Pages : 319 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Future Babble by : Dan Gardner

Download or read book Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and published by McClelland & Stewart. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

The Politics and Science of Prevision

Author : Andreas Wenger
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000088367
Total Pages : 417 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Politics and Science of Prevision by : Andreas Wenger

Download or read book The Politics and Science of Prevision written by Andreas Wenger and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-05-28 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations. The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

China's Futures

Author : Daniel C. Lynch
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804794375
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis China's Futures by : Daniel C. Lynch

Download or read book China's Futures written by Daniel C. Lynch and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2015-03-11 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's Futures cuts through the sometimes confounding and unfounded speculation of international pundits and commentators to provide readers with an important yet overlooked set of complex views concerning China's future: views originating within China itself. Daniel Lynch seeks to answer the simple but rarely asked question: how do China's own leaders and other elite figures assess their country's future? Many Western social scientists, business leaders, journalists, technocrats, analysts, and policymakers convey confident predictions about the future of China's rise. Every day, the business, political, and even entertainment news is filled with stories and commentary not only on what is happening in China now, but also what Western experts confidently think will happen in the future. Typically missing from these accounts is how people of power and influence in China itself imagine their country's developmental course. Yet the assessments of elites in a still super-authoritarian country like China should make a critical difference in what the national trajectory eventually becomes. In China's Futures, Lynch traces the varying possible national trajectories based on how China's own specialists are evaluating their country's current course, and his book is the first to assess the strengths and weaknesses of "predictioneering" in Western social science as applied to China. It does so by examining Chinese debates in five critical issue-areas concerning China's trajectory: the economy, domestic political processes and institutions, communication and the Internet (arrival of the "network society"), foreign policy strategy, and international soft-power (cultural) competition.

Broken on the Inside

Author : Phil Sloman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781913038113
Total Pages : 162 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (381 download)

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Book Synopsis Broken on the Inside by : Phil Sloman

Download or read book Broken on the Inside written by Phil Sloman and published by . This book was released on 2018-06-03 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Black Shuck Shadows presents a collectable series of micro-collections, intended as a sampler to introduce readers to the best in classic and modern horror.

Contrarian Investment Strategies

Author : David Dreman
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 0743297962
Total Pages : 498 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (432 download)

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Book Synopsis Contrarian Investment Strategies by : David Dreman

Download or read book Contrarian Investment Strategies written by David Dreman and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2012-01-10 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces important new findings in psychology to demonstrate why most investment strategies are flawed, outlining atypical strategies designed to prevent over- and under-valuations while crash-proofing a portfolio.

Rethinking Political Risk

Author : Cecilia Emma Sottilotta
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1317063880
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Rethinking Political Risk by : Cecilia Emma Sottilotta

Download or read book Rethinking Political Risk written by Cecilia Emma Sottilotta and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political risk was first introduced as a component for assessing risk not directly linked to economic factors following the flow of capital from the US to Europe after the Second World War. However, the concept has rapidly gained relevance since, with both public and private institutions developing complex methodologies designed to evaluate political risk factors and keep pace with the internationalization of trade and investment. Continued global and regional economic and political instability means a plethora of different actors today conduct a diverse range of political risk analyses and assessments. Starting from the epistemological foundations of political risk, this books bridges the gap between theory and practice, exploring operationalization and measurement issues with the support of an empirical case study on the Arab uprisings, discussing the role of expert judgment in political forecasting, and highlighting the main challenges and opportunities political risk analysts face in the wake of the digital revolution.

The Strategy of Campaigning

Author : Kiron Skinner
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472033190
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis The Strategy of Campaigning by : Kiron Skinner

Download or read book The Strategy of Campaigning written by Kiron Skinner and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores the political careers of Ronald Reagan and Boris Yeltsin, who overcame defeat early in their political careers and rose to the highest elected offices in their respective countries

The Spoils of War

Author : Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Publisher : Public Affairs
ISBN 13 : 1610396626
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis The Spoils of War by : Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Download or read book The Spoils of War written by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and published by Public Affairs. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's striking how many of the presidents Americans venerate--Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and John F. Kennedy, to name a few--oversaw some of the republic's bloodiest years. Perhaps it's because they looked out for important political causes. Or maybe they just looked out for themselves. This ... book puts some of America's greatest leaders under the microscope, [positing that] their calls for war, usually remembered as brave and noble, were in fact selfish and convenient"--

Seek and Hide

Author : Amy Gajda
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1984880748
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (848 download)

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Book Synopsis Seek and Hide by : Amy Gajda

Download or read book Seek and Hide written by Amy Gajda and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2022-04-12 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Gajda’s chronicle reveals an enduring tension between principles of free speech and respect for individuals’ private lives. …just the sort of road map we could use right now.”—The Atlantic “Wry and fascinating…Gajda is a nimble storyteller [and] an insightful guide to a rich and textured history that gets easily caricatured, especially when a culture war is raging.”—The New York Times An urgent book for today's privacy wars, and essential reading on how the courts have--for centuries--often protected privileged men's rights at the cost of everyone else's. Should everyone have privacy in their personal lives? Can privacy exist in a public place? Is there a right to be left alone even in the United States? You may be startled to realize that the original framers were sensitive to the importance of privacy interests relating to sexuality and intimate life, but mostly just for powerful and privileged (and usually white) men. The battle between an individual’s right to privacy and the public’s right to know has been fought for centuries. The founders demanded privacy for all the wrong press-quashing reasons. Supreme Court justice Louis Brandeis famously promoted First Amendment freedoms but argued strongly for privacy too; and presidents from Thomas Jefferson through Donald Trump confidently hid behind privacy despite intense public interest in their lives. Today privacy seems simultaneously under siege and surging. And that’s doubly dangerous, as legal expert Amy Gajda argues. Too little privacy leaves ordinary people vulnerable to those who deal in and publish soul-crushing secrets. Too much means the famous and infamous can cloak themselves in secrecy and dodge accountability. Seek and Hide carries us from the very start, when privacy concepts first entered American law and society, to now, when the law allows a Silicon Valley titan to destroy a media site like Gawker out of spite. Muckraker Upton Sinclair, like Nellie Bly before him, pushed the envelope of privacy and propriety and then became a privacy advocate when journalists used the same techniques against him. By the early 2000s we were on our way to today’s full-blown crisis in the digital age, worrying that smartphones, webcams, basement publishers, and the forever internet had erased the right to privacy completely.

Playing to Win

Author : David Sirlin
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 1411666798
Total Pages : 144 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (116 download)

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Book Synopsis Playing to Win by : David Sirlin

Download or read book Playing to Win written by David Sirlin and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2006-04-01 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winning at competitive games requires a results-oriented mindset that many players are simply not willing to adopt. This book walks players through the entire process: how to choose a game and learn basic proficiency, how to break through the mental barriers that hold most players back, and how to handle the issues that top players face. It also includes a complete analysis of Sun Tzu's book The Art of War and its applications to games of today. These foundational concepts apply to virtually all competitive games, and even have some application to "real life." Trade paperback. 142 pages.

The Art of Strategy: A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life

Author : Avinash K. Dixit
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 9780393069952
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (699 download)

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Book Synopsis The Art of Strategy: A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life by : Avinash K. Dixit

Download or read book The Art of Strategy: A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life written by Avinash K. Dixit and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2010-01-04 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “I am hard pressed to think of another book that can match the combination of practical insights and reading enjoyment.”—Steven Levitt Game theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It’s the art of anticipating your opponent’s next moves, knowing full well that your rival is trying to do the same thing to you. Though parts of game theory involve simple common sense, much is counterintuitive, and it can only be mastered by developing a new way of seeing the world. Using a diverse array of rich case studies—from pop culture, TV, movies, sports, politics, and history—the authors show how nearly every business and personal interaction has a game-theory component to it. Mastering game theory will make you more successful in business and life, and this lively book is the key to that mastery.

Superforecasting

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

The Dictator's Handbook

Author : Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Publisher : Public Affairs
ISBN 13 : 161039044X
Total Pages : 354 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis The Dictator's Handbook by : Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Download or read book The Dictator's Handbook written by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and published by Public Affairs. This book was released on 2011-09-27 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains the theory of political survival, particularly in cases of dictators and despotic governments, arguing that political leaders seek to stay in power using any means necessary, most commonly by attending to the interests of certain coalitions.

The Art of War for Executives

Author : Donald Krause
Publisher : Hachette UK
ISBN 13 : 1857889258
Total Pages : 89 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (578 download)

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Book Synopsis The Art of War for Executives by : Donald Krause

Download or read book The Art of War for Executives written by Donald Krause and published by Hachette UK. This book was released on 2011-05-12 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For years, business schools and professional consultants have turned to Sun Tzu's 2,500-year-old Chinese text for its invaluable commentary on such topics as leadership, strategy, organization, competition and cooperation. Now the wisdom of Sun Tzu's The Art of War is made accessible to the modern reader. Not simply a new translation, this is the first book to provide a clear, easy-to-follow interpretation of the classic document. The Art of War for Executives reveals the brilliance of Sun Tzu -- and shows how to win on the battlefield of modern business. The tone and insight of the original classic remain, while incorporating the ideas of contemporary business philosophers like Peters, Drucker and Bennis. "Some of Europe's smartest companies may not realise it, but it is a strong possibility that their most effective strategies have been based on the teachings of Sun Tzu, the Chinese expert in military strategy who lived around 2,500 years ago. His book is a wealth of ancient wisdom translated superbly for today's reader." -- The European

Social Physics

Author : Alex Pentland
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1594205655
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (942 download)

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Book Synopsis Social Physics by : Alex Pentland

Download or read book Social Physics written by Alex Pentland and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2014 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A landmark tour of the new science of "idea flow" outlines revolutionary insights into the mysteries of collective intelligence and social influence, explaining the virtually unlimited data sets of today's digital technologies and the considerable accuracy of information from social networks.

Geopolitical Alpha

Author : Marko Papic
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119740223
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Geopolitical Alpha by : Marko Papic

Download or read book Geopolitical Alpha written by Marko Papic and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-10-15 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights. Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses: What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.