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The Information Content Of The Term Structure Of Risk Neutral Skewness
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Book Synopsis The Information Content of the Term Structure of Risk-Neutral Skewness by : Paul Borochin
Download or read book The Information Content of the Term Structure of Risk-Neutral Skewness written by Paul Borochin and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We seek to reconcile the debate about the price effect of risk-neutral skewness (RNS) on stocks. We document positive predictability from short-term skewness, consistent with informed-trading demand, and negative predictability from long-term skewness, consistent with skewness preference. A term spread on RNS captures different information from long- and short-term contracts, resulting in stronger predictability. The quintile portfolio with the lowest spread outperforms that with highest spread by 14.64% annually. The term structure of RNS predicts earnings surprises and price crashes. The information difference between short- and long-term options explains the pricing difference of their RNS, providing a potential resolution to the debate.
Book Synopsis The Equity Premium and the Volatility Spread by : Bruno Feunou
Download or read book The Equity Premium and the Volatility Spread written by Bruno Feunou and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion by : Jens Carsten Jackwerth
Download or read book Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion written by Jens Carsten Jackwerth and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Information Content of Forward Moments by : Panayiotis C. Andreou
Download or read book The Information Content of Forward Moments written by Panayiotis C. Andreou and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the term structures of risk-neutral forward variance and skewness, and examine their predictive power for equity market excess returns and variance. We use Partial Least Squares to extract a single predictive factor from each term structure that is motivated by the theoretical implications of affine no-arbitrage models. The empirical analysis shows that an increased forward variance factor, FVF (forward skewness factor, FSF) corresponds to a more negatively sloped forward variance (more U-shaped forward skewness) term structure, and significantly forecasts higher future market excess returns and variance. More importantly, FSF exhibits predictive power for market returns that is stronger than, and incremental to, that provided by FVF. However, it does not outperform FVF in terms of excess variance predictability.
Download or read book Essays on Skewness written by Fang Zhen and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis is devoted to the study of the higher-moment risk, in particular, the skewness risk. In Chapter 2, we provide an exact formula for the skewness of stock returns implied in the Heston (1993) model by using a moment-computing approach. We compute the moments of Ito integrals by using Ito's Lemma skillfully. The model's affine property allows us to obtain analytical formulas for cumulants. The formulas for the variance and the third cumulant are written as time-weighted sums of expected instantaneous variance, which are neater and more intuitive than those obtained with the characteristic function approach. Our skewness formula is then applied in calibrating Heston's model by using the market data of the CBOE VIX and SKEW. The CBOE SKEW is an index launched by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) in February 2011. Its term structure tracks the risk-neutral skewness of the S & P 500 index (SPX) for different maturities. In Chapter 3, we develop a theory for the CBOE SKEW by modelling SPX using a jump-diffusion process with stochastic volatility and stochastic jump intensity. With the term structure data of VIX and SKEW, we estimate model parameters and obtain the four processes of variance, jump intensity and their long-term mean levels. Our results can be used to describe the risk-neutral distribution of the SPX returns and to price SPX options. In Chapter 4, We measure the jump magnitude of the SPX index by using sum of cubed returns (i.e., realized cubic variation). We further detect the existence of jumps if the jump magnitude is higher than a given threshold. Both option-implied and time-series information are used to forecast future one-month jump magnitude and jump existence likelihood. Our results show that option-implied information, coupled with past diffusive variance, is more efficient in forecasting jump magnitude than is time-series information, whereas past realized variance outperforms option-implied information in forecasting jump existence likelihood. We also find that the realized cubic variation and its risk-neutral expectation are significantly negatively correlated.
Book Synopsis Positional Option Trading by : Euan Sinclair
Download or read book Positional Option Trading written by Euan Sinclair and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-09-01 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed, one-stop guide for experienced options traders Positional Option Trading: An Advanced Guide is a rigorous, professional-level guide on sophisticated techniques from professional trader and quantitative analyst Euan Sinclair. The author has over two decades of high-level option trading experience. He has written this book specifically for professional options traders who have outgrown more basic trading techniques and are searching for in-depth information suitable for advanced trading. Custom-tailored to respond to the volatile option trading environment, this expert guide stresses the importance of finding a valid edge in situations where risk is usually overwhelmed by uncertainty and unknowability. Using examples of edges such as the volatility premium, term-structure premia and earnings effects, the author shows how to find valid trading ideas and details the decision process for choosing an option structure that best exploits the advantage. Advanced topics include a quantitative approach for directionally trading options, the robustness of the Black Scholes Merton model, trade sizing for option portfolios, robust risk management and more. This book: Provides advanced trading techniques for experienced professional traders Addresses the need for in-depth, quantitative information that more general, intro-level options trading books do not provide Helps readers to master their craft and improve their performance Includes advanced risk management methods in option trading No matter the market conditions, Positional Option Trading: An Advanced Guide is an important resource for any professional or advanced options trader.
Book Synopsis Market Expectations and Option Prices by : Martin Mandler
Download or read book Market Expectations and Option Prices written by Martin Mandler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a slightly revised version of my doctoral dissertation which has been accepted by the Department of Economics and Business Administration of the Justus-Liebig-Universitat Giessen in July 2002. I am indebted to my advisor Prof. Dr. Volbert Alexander for encouraging and supporting my research. I am also grateful to the second member of the doctoral committee, Prof. Dr. Horst Rinne. Special thanks go to Dr. Ralf Ahrens for providing part of the data and to my colleague Carsten Lang, who spent much time reading the complete first draft. Wetzlar, January 2003 Martin Mandler Contents 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part I Theoretical Foundations 2 Arbitrage Pricing and Risk-Neutral Probabilities........ .. 7 2.1 Arbitrage Pricing in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model... . . .. . 7 2.2 The Equivalent Martingale Measure and Risk-Neutral Valuation ............................................... 11 2.3 Extracting Risk-Neutral Probabilities from Option Prices. . . .. 13 2.4 Summary............................................... 15 Appendix 2A: The Valuation Function in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model .................................................. 16 Appendix 2B: Some Further Details on the Replication Strategy ... 21 3 Survey of the Related Literature .......................... 23 3.1 The Information Content of Forward and Futures Prices. . . .. . 24 3.2 The Information Content of Implied Volatilities ............. 25 3.2.1 Implied Volatilities and the Risk-Neutral Probability Density .......................................... 27 3.2.2 The Term Structure of Implied Volatilities. . . . . . . .. . . 29 . 3.2.3 The Forecasting Information in Implied Volatilities. . .. 30 3.2.4 Implied Correlations as Forecasts of Future Correlations 43 VIII Contents 3.3 The Skewness Premium ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 45 . . . . . . .
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-24 with total page 1386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Book Synopsis Volatility and Time Series Econometrics by : Mark Watson
Download or read book Volatility and Time Series Econometrics written by Mark Watson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics
Book Synopsis Sustainable Life Insurance by : Aymeric Kalife
Download or read book Sustainable Life Insurance written by Aymeric Kalife and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-08-18 with total page 766 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sustainable Life Insurance: Managing Risk Appetite for Insurance Savings and Retirement Products gives an overview of all relevant aspects of traditional and non-traditional savings and retirement products from both insurers’ and policyholders’ respective risk appetites. Examples of such products include general accounts, whole life, annuities (variable, fixed and fixed indexed, structured), index-linked products, CPPI-based products, etc. The book contains technical details associated with both practice and theory, specifically related to modelling, product design, investments and risk management challenges and solutions, tailored to both insurers’ and policyholders’ perspectives. Features The book offers not only theoretical background but also concrete, cutting-edge "quick wins" across strategic and operational business axes. It will be an asset for professionals in the insurance industry, and a great teaching/learning resource for courses in risk management, insurance modelling, and more. The book highlights the operational challenges encountered across modelling, product designs and hedging.
Book Synopsis Implied Volatility Functions by : Bernard Dumas
Download or read book Implied Volatility Functions written by Bernard Dumas and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Black and Scholes (1973) implied volatilities tend to be systematically related to the option's exercise price and time to expiration. Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) attribute this behavior to the fact that the Black-Scholes constant volatility assumption is violated in practice. These authors hypothesize that the volatility of the underlying asset's return is a deterministic function of the asset price and time and develop the deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model, which has the potential of fitting the observed cross-section of option prices exactly. Using a sample of S & P 500 index options during the period June 1988 through December 1993, we evaluate the economic significance of the implied deterministic volatility function by examining the predictive and hedging performance of the DV option valuation model. We find that its performance is worse than that of an ad hoc Black-Scholes model with variable implied volatilities.
Book Synopsis Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by : Roger G. Ibbotson
Download or read book Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance written by Roger G. Ibbotson and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2018 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical and behavioral finance are often seen as being at odds, but the idea of “popularity” has been introduced as a way of reconciling the two approaches. Investors like or dislike various characteristics of securities for rational reasons (as in classical finance) or irrational reasons (as in behavioral finance), which makes the assets popular or unpopular. In the capital markets, popular (unpopular) securities trade at prices that are higher (lower) than they would be otherwise; hence, the shares may provide lower (higher) expected returns.This book builds on this idea and expands it in two major ways. First, it introduces a rigorous asset pricing model, the popularity asset pricing model (PAPM), which adds investor preferences for security characteristics other than the risk and expected return that are part of the capital asset pricing model. A major conclusion of the PAPM is that the expected return of any security is a linear function of not only its systematic risk (beta) but also of all security characteristics that investors care about. The other major contribution of the book is new empirical work that, while confirming the well-known premiums (such as size, value, and liquidity) in a popularity context, supports the popularity hypothesis on the basis of portfolios of stocks based on such characteristics as brand value, sustainable competitive advantage, and reputation. Popularity unifies the factors that affect price in classical finance with those that drive price in behavioral finance, thus creating a unifying theory or bridge between classical and behavioral finance.
Book Synopsis The C.F.A. Digest by : Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts
Download or read book The C.F.A. Digest written by Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 972 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Trading Volatility by : Colin Bennett
Download or read book Trading Volatility written by Colin Bennett and published by . This book was released on 2014-08-17 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication aims to fill the void between books providing an introduction to derivatives, and advanced books whose target audience are members of quantitative modelling community. In order to appeal to the widest audience, this publication tries to assume the least amount of prior knowledge. The content quickly moves onto more advanced subjects in order to concentrate on more practical and advanced topics. "A master piece to learn in a nutshell all the essentials about volatility with a practical and lively approach. A must read!" Carole Bernard, Equity Derivatives Specialist at Bloomberg "This book could be seen as the 'volatility bible'!" Markus-Alexander Flesch, Head of Sales & Marketing at Eurex "I highly recommend this book both for those new to the equity derivatives business, and for more advanced readers. The balance between theory and practice is struck At-The-Money" Paul Stephens, Head of Institutional Marketing at CBOE "One of the best resources out there for the volatility community" Paul Britton, CEO and Founder of Capstone Investment Advisors "Colin has managed to convey often complex derivative and volatility concepts with an admirable simplicity, a welcome change from the all-too-dense tomes one usually finds on the subject" Edmund Shing PhD, former Proprietary Trader at BNP Paribas "In a crowded space, Colin has supplied a useful and concise guide" Gary Delany, Director Europe at the Options Industry Council
Book Synopsis Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL) by : Andreas Jobst
Download or read book Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL) written by Andreas Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the externalities caused by impact of the interconnectedness within institutions and markets on funding and market liquidity risk within financial systems. The Systemic Risk-adjusted Liquidity (SRL) model combines option pricing with market information and balance sheet data to generate a probabilistic measure of the frequency and severity of multiple entities experiencing a joint liquidity event. It links a firm’s maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other firms, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price liquidity risk within a macroprudential framework that, if used to motivate a capital charge or insurance premia, provides incentives for liquidity managers to internalize the systemic risk of their decisions. The model can also accommodate a stress testing approach for institution-specific and/or general funding shocks that generate estimates of systemic liquidity risk (and associated charges) under adverse scenarios.
Book Synopsis Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis by : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
Book Synopsis How to Invest in Structured Products by : Andreas Bluemke
Download or read book How to Invest in Structured Products written by Andreas Bluemke and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-15 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is essential in understanding, investing and risk managing the holy grail of investments - structured products. The book begins by introducing structured products by way of a basic guide so that readers will be able to understand a payoff graphic, read a termsheet or assess a payoff formula, before moving on to the key asset classes and their peculiarities. Readers will then move on to the more advanced subjects such as structured products construction and behaviour during their lifetime. It also explains how to avoid important pitfalls in products across all asset classes, pitfalls that have led to huge losses over recent years, including detailed coverage of counterparty risk, the fall of Lehman Brothers and other key aspects of the financial crisis related to structured products. The second part of the book presents an original approach to implementing structured products in a portfolio. Key features include: A comprehensive list of factors an investor needs to take into consideration before investing. This makes it a great help to any buyer of structured products; Unbiased advice on product investments across several asset classes: equities, fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities; Guidance on how to implement structured products in a portfolio context; A comprehensive questionnaire that will help investors to define their own investment preferences, allowing for a greater precision when facing investment decisions; An original approach determining the typical distribution of returns for major product types, essential for product classification and optimal portfolio implementation purposes; Written in a fresh, clear and understandable style, with many figures illustrating the products and very little mathematics. This book will enable you to better comprehend the use of structured products in everyday banking, quickly analyzing a product, assessing which of your clients it suits, and recognizing its major pitfalls. You will be able to see the added value versus the cost of a product and if the payoff is compatible with the market expectations.
