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The Improbability Principle
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Book Synopsis The Improbability Principle by : David J. Hand
Download or read book The Improbability Principle written by David J. Hand and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 2014-02-11 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "An eye-opening and engrossing look at rare moments, why they occur, and how they shape our world"--
Author :David J. Hand Publisher :Scientific American / Farrar, Straus and Giroux ISBN 13 :0374711399 Total Pages :288 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (747 download)
Book Synopsis The Improbability Principle by : David J. Hand
Download or read book The Improbability Principle written by David J. Hand and published by Scientific American / Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2014-02-11 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but. In fact, they're commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month. But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of "miracle" is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough. Together, these constitute Hand's groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives—including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective. An irresistible adventure into the laws behind "chance" moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it's in the world of business and finance or you're merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.
Book Synopsis The Improbability Principle by : David Hand
Download or read book The Improbability Principle written by David Hand and published by Random House. This book was released on 2014-02-27 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why is it that incredibly unlikely phenomena actually happen quite regularly and why should we, in fact, expect such things to happen? Here, in this highly original book - aimed squarely at anyone with an interest in coincidences, probability or gambling - eminent statistician David Hand answers this question by weaving together various strands of probability into a unified explanation, which he calls the improbability principle. This is a book that will appeal not only to those who love stories about startling coincidences and extraordinarily rare events, but also to those who are interested in how a single bold idea links areas as diverse as gambling, the weather, airline disasters and creative writing as well as the origin of life and even the universe. The Improbability Principle will change your perspective on how the world works – and tell you what the Bible code and Shakespeare have in common, how to win the lottery, why Apple's song shuffling was made less random to seem more random. Oh and why lightning does in fact strike twice...
Download or read book Dark Data written by David J. Hand and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-02-15 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Data describe and represent the world. However, no matter how big they may be, data sets don't - indeed cannot - capture everything. Data are measurements - and, as such, they represent only what has been measured. They don't necessarily capture all the information that is relevant to the questions we may want to ask. If we do not take into account what may be missing/unknown in the data we have, we may find ourselves unwittingly asking questions that our data cannot actually address, come to mistaken conclusions, and make disastrous decisions. In this book, David Hand looks at the ubiquitous phenomenon of "missing data." He calls this "dark data" (making a comparison to "dark matter" - i.e., matter in the universe that we know is there, but which is invisible to direct measurement). He reveals how we can detect when data is missing, the types of settings in which missing data are likely to be found, and what to do about it. It can arise for many reasons, which themselves may not be obvious - for example, asymmetric information in wars; time delays in financial trading; dropouts in clinical trials; deliberate selection to enhance apparent performance in hospitals, policing, and schools; etc. What becomes clear is that measuring and collecting more and more data (big data) will not necessarily lead us to better understanding or to better decisions. We need to be vigilant to what is missing or unknown in our data, so that we can try to control for it. How do we do that? We can be alert to the causes of dark data, design better data-collection strategies that sidestep some of these causes - and, we can ask better questions of our data, which will lead us to deeper insights and better decisions"--
Book Synopsis The Improbability of God by : Michael Martin
Download or read book The Improbability of God written by Michael Martin and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, the authors bring together for the first time an extensive collection of papers by many distinguished scholars who present a variety of arguments that the existence of God is improbable.
Book Synopsis The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science by : Jay Cordes
Download or read book The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science written by Jay Cordes and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2019-07-08 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data science has never had more influence on the world. Large companies are now seeing the benefit of employing data scientists to interpret the vast amounts of data that now exists. However, the field is so new and is evolving so rapidly that the analysis produced can be haphazard at best. The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science shows us real-world examples of what can go wrong. Written to be an entertaining read, this invaluable guide investigates the all too common mistakes of data scientists - who can be plagued by lazy thinking, whims, hunches, and prejudices - and indicates how they have been at the root of many disasters, including the Great Recession. Gary Smith and Jay Cordes emphasise how scientific rigor and critical thinking skills are indispensable in this age of Big Data, as machines often find meaningless patterns that can lead to dangerous false conclusions. The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science is loaded with entertaining tales of both successful and misguided approaches to interpreting data, both grand successes and epic failures. These cautionary tales will not only help data scientists be more effective, but also help the public distinguish between good and bad data science.
Book Synopsis What Darwin Got Wrong by : Jerry Fodor
Download or read book What Darwin Got Wrong written by Jerry Fodor and published by Profile Books. This book was released on 2011-02-24 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jerry Fodor and Massimo Piatelli-Palmarini, a distinguished philosopher and scientist working in tandem, reveal major flaws at the heart of Darwinian evolutionary theory. They do not deny Darwin's status as an outstanding scientist but question the inferences he drew from his observations. Combining the results of cutting-edge work in experimental biology with crystal-clear philosophical argument they mount a devastating critique of the central tenets of Darwin's account of the origin of species. The logic underlying natural selection is the survival of the fittest under changing environmental pressure. This logic, they argue, is mistaken. They back up the claim with evidence of what actually happens in nature. This is a rare achievement - the short book that is likely to make a great deal of difference to a very large subject. What Darwin Got Wrong will be controversial. The authors' arguments will reverberate through the scientific world. At the very least they will transform the debate about evolution.
Download or read book Anthropic Bias written by Nick Bostrom and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-10-11 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anthropic Bias explores how to reason when you suspect that your evidence is biased by "observation selection effects"--that is, evidence that has been filtered by the precondition that there be some suitably positioned observer to "have" the evidence. This conundrum--sometimes alluded to as "the anthropic principle," "self-locating belief," or "indexical information"--turns out to be a surprisingly perplexing and intellectually stimulating challenge, one abounding with important implications for many areas in science and philosophy. There are the philosophical thought experiments and paradoxes: the Doomsday Argument; Sleeping Beauty; the Presumptuous Philosopher; Adam & Eve; the Absent-Minded Driver; the Shooting Room. And there are the applications in contemporary science: cosmology ("How many universes are there?", "Why does the universe appear fine-tuned for life?"); evolutionary theory ("How improbable was the evolution of intelligent life on our planet?"); the problem of time's arrow ("Can it be given a thermodynamic explanation?"); quantum physics ("How can the many-worlds theory be tested?"); game-theory problems with imperfect recall ("How to model them?"); even traffic analysis ("Why is the 'next lane' faster?"). Anthropic Bias argues that the same principles are at work across all these domains. And it offers a synthesis: a mathematically explicit theory of observation selection effects that attempts to meet scientific needs while steering clear of philosophical paradox.
Book Synopsis Statistics: A Very Short Introduction by : David J. Hand
Download or read book Statistics: A Very Short Introduction written by David J. Hand and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2008-10-23 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern statistics is very different from the dry and dusty discipline of the popular imagination. In its place is an exciting subject which uses deep theory and powerful software tools to shed light and enable understanding. And it sheds this light on all aspects of our lives, enabling astronomers to explore the origins of the universe, archaeologists to investigate ancient civilisations, governments to understand how to benefit and improve society, and businesses to learn how best to provide goods and services. Aimed at readers with no prior mathematical knowledge, this Very Short Introduction explores and explains how statistics work, and how we can decipher them. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.
Download or read book Synchronicity written by Paul Halpern and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2020-08-18 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From Aristotle's Physics to quantum teleportation, learn about the scientific pursuit of instantaneous connections in this insightful examination of our world. For millennia, scientists have puzzled over a simple question: Does the universe have a speed limit? If not, some effects could happen at the same instant as the actions that caused them -- and some effects, ludicrously, might even happen before their causes. By one hundred years ago, it seemed clear that the speed of light was the fastest possible speed. Causality was safe. And then quantum mechanics happened, introducing spooky connections that seemed to circumvent the law of cause and effect. Inspired by the new physics, psychologist Carl Jung and physicist Wolfgang Pauli explored a concept called synchronicity, a weird phenomenon they thought could link events without causes. Synchronicity tells that sprawling tale of insight and creativity, and asks where these ideas -- some plain crazy, and others crazy powerful -- are taking the human story next.
Book Synopsis Atheism Is False Richard Dawkins and the Improbability of God Delusion by : David Reuben Stone
Download or read book Atheism Is False Richard Dawkins and the Improbability of God Delusion written by David Reuben Stone and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2007-08-01 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: David Reuben Stone presents a modern defense of the existence of God. Two new arguments are presented: The Argument From The Laws Of Physics, and the Fine-Tuning Argument. The atheism of Richard Dawkins is refuted in great detail, as well as writings of the following atheistic authors: Quentin Smith, Michael Martin, William Rowe, Victor Stenger, Theodore Drange, J.L. Schellenberg, Nicholas Everitt, Michael Ikeda, Bill Jefferys, Theodore Schick Jr., Wesley C. Salmon, Walter Sinnott-Armstrong, Victor Cosculluela, Thomas Metcalf, and Bruce and Frances Martin. The defenses of atheism by these leading thinkers now stand thoroughly critiqued and in need of substantial revision. A must read for anyone interested in the existence of God. The defense of Hugh Ross's fine-tuning arguments against objections raised by Ikeda and Jefferys is, alone, worth the price of this book! David Reuben Stone is president and founder of Atheism Is False Ministries: www.atheismisfalse.com
Book Synopsis Enhancing Human Performance by : National Research Council
Download or read book Enhancing Human Performance written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1988-01-01 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In its evaluation, Enhancing Human Performance reviews the relevant materials, describes each technique, makes recommendations in some cases for further scientific research and investigation, and notes applications in military and industrial settings. The techniques address a wide range of goals, from enhancing classroom learning to improving creativity and motor skills.
Download or read book On War written by Carl von Clausewitz and published by . This book was released on 1908 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation by : Jeremy Bentham
Download or read book An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation written by Jeremy Bentham and published by . This book was released on 1823 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bentham's treatise on the foundations of law and government.
Book Synopsis The Art of Statistics by : David Spiegelhalter
Download or read book The Art of Statistics written by David Spiegelhalter and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'A statistical national treasure' Jeremy Vine, BBC Radio 2 'Required reading for all politicians, journalists, medics and anyone who tries to influence people (or is influenced) by statistics. A tour de force' Popular Science Do busier hospitals have higher survival rates? How many trees are there on the planet? Why do old men have big ears? David Spiegelhalter reveals the answers to these and many other questions - questions that can only be addressed using statistical science. Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data. Drawing on real world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. 'Shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the world' Nature
Book Synopsis Principles of Political Economy Considered with a View to Their Practical Application by : Thomas Robert Malthus
Download or read book Principles of Political Economy Considered with a View to Their Practical Application written by Thomas Robert Malthus and published by . This book was released on 1820 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Malthus has prepared in this work the general rules of political economy. He calls into question some of the reasonings of Ricardo and attempts to defend Adam Smith.
Download or read book Improbable Planet written by Hugh Ross and published by Baker Books. This book was released on 2016-09-06 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Latest Scientific Discoveries Point to an Intentional Creator Most of us remember the basics from science classes about how Earth came to be the only known planet that sustains complex life. But what most people don't know is that the more thoroughly researchers investigate the history of our planet, the more astonishing the story of our existence becomes. The number and complexity of the astronomical, geological, chemical, and biological features recognized as essential to human existence have expanded explosively within the past decade. An understanding of what is required to make possible a large human population and advanced civilizations has raised profound questions about life, our purpose, and our destiny. Are we really just the result of innumerable coincidences? Or is there a more reasonable explanation? This fascinating book helps nonscientists understand the countless miracles that undergird the exquisitely fine-tuned planet we call home--as if Someone had us in mind all along.
