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The Impacts Of Climate Variations On Military Operations In The Horn Of Africa
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Book Synopsis The Impacts of Climate Variations on Military Operations in the Horn of Africa by :
Download or read book The Impacts of Climate Variations on Military Operations in the Horn of Africa written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Department of Defense (DoD) climatology products rely mainly on long term means (LTMs) of climate system variables. In this project, we have demonstrated that climatologies based on LTMs can be substantially improved using modern data and methods, especially by accounting for climate variations. We analyzed, and identified mechanisms for, enhanced (suppressed) autumn precipitation in the Horn of Africa (HOA) during El Nino (La Nina) events. El Nino (La Nina) precipitation anomalies were associated with anomalously warm (cool) western Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, and with anomalously onshore (offshore) moisture transports in the HOA. These transport anomalies supported anomalously strong (weak) precipitation over the HOA. To improve climatological support for DoD operations, we developed and tested a six-step smart climatology process. We applied this process in the context of a notional, unclassified non-combatant evacuation operation (NEO) set in the HOA during autumn of an El Nino year. Using this process, we translated our scientific and operational findings into warfighter impacts. The smart climatology process we have developed is readily adaptable to other regions, seasons, climate variations, and military operations. We have provided a detailed description of our smart climatology process to facilitate its use by DoD agencies.
Book Synopsis Long-range Forecasting in Support of Operations in the Horn of Africa by : Benjamin D. Lemke
Download or read book Long-range Forecasting in Support of Operations in the Horn of Africa written by Benjamin D. Lemke and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past several decades, the Horn of Africa (HOA) has experienced recurring climate variations, including droughts and floods that have devastated the region's livelihoods and prompted increased investment in strategies to minimize the negative effects of climate variations. These preventative strategies include the enactment of early warning systems, such as the Famine Early Warning System Network, and military commands such as U.S. Africa Command. If these organizations are to be successful, they must account for the many climate factors that affect Africa, including seasonal climate variations and climate change. Thus, skillful long-range forecasts, especially of precipitation, have become increasingly valuable in planning the operations of these organizations. In this study, we focused on assessing the potential for predicting HOA precipitation rate (PR) during the October-November rain season at lead times of several seasons. We correlated HOA PR and remote climate variables, and discovered a strong potential for skillful long-range forecasts of HOA PR using sea surface temperatures (SST) near New Zealand, the Philippines, and Namibia as predictors. Our forecast methods included deterministic (tercile matching, linear regression, optimal climate normals) and probabilistic (composite analysis) methods. Our verification metrics showed a definite improvement in forecast skill over existing long-range forecasts based on long-term means, and indicated that our forecasting methods have the potential to improve the planning of military and non-military operations in the HOA.
Book Synopsis Climate Change and Conflict in East and the Horn of Africa by : Judi Wangalwa Wakhungu
Download or read book Climate Change and Conflict in East and the Horn of Africa written by Judi Wangalwa Wakhungu and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Africa is characterised by widespread and deeply entrenched poverty, armed conflict, slow economic development until recently, and agricultural systems proven to failure during frequent and persistent drought. With its tremendous natural resources and remarkable social and ecological diversity, the continent reflects a close dependency of people on natural resources. This background report illustrates that it is this dependency that will present Africa with potentially severe adaptive problems in dealing with the twin effects of climate change and population growth in future years. More than ever, Africa and its partners need to work together to turn deforestation around, to save its green lungs, to manage its cities and to grow food for its hungry millions.
Book Synopsis Climate Change and Regional Instability in the Horn of Africa by : Michelle D. Gavin
Download or read book Climate Change and Regional Instability in the Horn of Africa written by Michelle D. Gavin and published by Council on Foreign Relations Press. This book was released on 2022-11-03 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change and climate-induced migration in the Horn of Africa could seriously exacerbate security risks in the region. The sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reiterates the grim facts of climate change in Africa. The continent has contributed little (less than 4 percent) to total greenhouse gas emissions but has already suffered serious consequences, from biodiversity loss to reduced food production. In East Africa particularly, drought frequency has doubled. Yet, between 2010 and 2018, most Horn countries received less than the average amount of climate adaptation funding per capita for lower-income countries, despite ranking at the top of climate vulnerability indices. Not only is financing for adaptation measures insufficient, but climate research in the region is also under-resourced. The Horn of Africa is extremely vulnerable to climate change, as it encompasses vast drylands, numerous pastoralist communities, multiple border disputes, unresolved trans-boundary water-rights issues, and porous land borders. The region also has a traumatic and politically contentious history with natural disaster, famine, and conflict, including the 1983-85 Ethiopian famine and the controversial 1992-93 humanitarian intervention in Somalia. In fact, the impetus for forming the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in 1986 was to address drought and desertification from a regional perspective, with peace and security issues added to the organization's mandate in 1996 due to the obvious interconnection of those issues. The Horn's history informs and sometimes politically distorts perceptions of current climate-related threats. Ongoing conflicts in the region add complexity to any effort to envision future scenarios. The Horn is not just at risk for conflict and instability-conflict and instability are its current reality. In Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan, multiple ongoing conflicts involve violent clashes between military and militia forces. The region already hosts nearly 2.9 million refugees and asylum seekers and over 12 million internally displaced persons. The Horn is currently the site of one of the world's worst food insecurity crises; in August of 2022 the number of highly food-insecure people in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia reached twenty-two million, and some already face famine conditions. Although conflict and crisis prevention is at the heart of efforts to identify interconnected climate and migration risks, for many in the region, the present is already characterized by insecurity, and the future by uncertainty. Demographic, economic, political, and environmental pressures all intersect in the Horn of Africa, driving popular unrest and resource competition and destabilizing migration patterns that exacerbate tensions within and between states. Regional disorder will have implications far beyond the Horn, affecting the politics, security, and relative power of external actors and constraining the prospects for effective global governance. The United States and others should act now to mitigate those risks.
Book Synopsis Report on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense by : Department Of Defense
Download or read book Report on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense written by Department Of Defense and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2019-01-20 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report assesses the impact and risks of climate change to United States military installations, conduct of military operations, and mission effectiveness.
Book Synopsis OS-02: The Impact of Climate and Extreme Weather Events on Military Operations by :
Download or read book OS-02: The Impact of Climate and Extreme Weather Events on Military Operations written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 3 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The range of climate and extreme weather events, including high and low temperatures, drought and floods, high and damaging winds, and heavy or blowing snow have significant impacts on military operations. These impacts include increased risk to life and safety, injury, and a degrading effect on mission performance. The effects of snow are felt across a range of tasks from intelligence gathering by sensors to mobility of vehicles and personnel. A comprehensive review of the impacts of snow and weather on military operations is in progress, which will produce a geographic database of climate, extreme weather and snow impacts on military operations.
Book Synopsis The Ethiopian Revolution by : Gebru Tareke
Download or read book The Ethiopian Revolution written by Gebru Tareke and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-23 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Revolution, civil wars, and guerilla warfare wracked Ethiopia during three turbulent decades at the end of the 20th century. Here, Tareke brings to life the leading personalities in the domestic political struggles, strategies of the warring parties international actors, and key battles.
Book Synopsis Climate and Its Effect on Military Operations by : Charles Fitzhugh Talman
Download or read book Climate and Its Effect on Military Operations written by Charles Fitzhugh Talman and published by . This book was released on 1920 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology. Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :104 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis The National Security Implications of Climate Change by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology. Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight
Download or read book The National Security Implications of Climate Change written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology. Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Climate and Disaster: Analyzing Military Foreign Disaster Relief in a Changing Climate - Examining Political and Other Motivations for Milit by : U. S. Military
Download or read book Climate and Disaster: Analyzing Military Foreign Disaster Relief in a Changing Climate - Examining Political and Other Motivations for Milit written by U. S. Military and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2019-03-23 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The suspected impact of climate change on natural hazards, as identified by the Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change, is expected to lead to a world where natural disasters are more frequent and severe in nature. This thesis investigates how climate change, in particular its effect on natural disasters, will impact the Department of Defense (DoD) mission to support stability worldwide through military Foreign Disaster Relief (FDR). To do that, it examines the question, why does the United States government (USG) authorize military FDR operations? The thesis develops 12 hypotheses pertaining to political and apolitical motivations and assesses them by conducting a qualitative comparative analysis of 12 recent hydrometeorological disasters. The findings of this research suggest, first, that military FDR operations are conducted to maintain stability of nations, regions, and the world order. Second, they suggest the USG is less likely to authorize military FDR in a consistent method due to the number of factors it takes into consideration. Lastly, the USG's decision to authorize military FDR operations is not constrained by resources-such as equipment or the federal budget. In terms of climate change, increases in the frequency and severity of natural disasters is likely not to have a significant impact on military FDR operations. Additionally, if increases in the number of military FDR operations do occur, the DoD is well equipped and funded to support those operations.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.Military Foreign Disaster Relief Operations in a Changing Climate * A. Major Research Question * B. Significance of the Research Question * C. Literature Review * 1. Understanding Climate Change * 2. Climate Change as a National Security Issue * 3. The Military Role's in Responding to Climate Change * 4. Factors Driving the Military's Involvement in FDR * D. Plan of the Thesis * II. An Overview: U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance and Military Foreign Disaster Relief * A. Introduction * B. Natural Disasters and the Linkage to Climate Change * C. Terminology of Foreign Assistance * D. An Overview of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance * 1. History of U.S. FDA * 2. The Components, Roles, and Responsibilities of U.S. FDA * E. An Overview Of Military FDR * 1. The History of Military FDR * 2. The Authorities of Military FDR * 3. The Authorization of Military FDR * 4. Considerations for Authorization * 5. The Scope of Military FDR * 6. The Funding of Military FDR * III. Considerations for Authorizing Military FDR * A. Introduction * B. Disaster Characteristics and Military FDR Decisions * 1. Hypothesis 1 * 2. Hypothesis 2 * 3. Hypothesis 3 * C. Foreign Policy Interests and Military FDR Decisions * 1. Hypothesis 4 * 2. Hypothesis 5 * 3. Hypothesis 6 * 4. Hypothesis 7 * 5. Hypothesis 8 * 6. Hypothesis 9 * D. Domestic Politics and Military FDR Decisions * 1. Hypothesis 10 * 2. Hypothesis 11 * 3. Hypothesis 12 * E. Conclusion * IV. Case Selection, Methodology, and Findings * A. Introduction * B. Case Selection * C. Dependent Variable * D. Methodology * E. Findings * 1. Hypothesis 1 * 2. Hypothesis 2 * 3. Hypothesis 3 * 4. Hypothesis 4 * 5. Hypothesis 5 * 6. Hypothesis 6 * 7. Hypothesis 7 * 8. Hypothesis 8 * 9. Hypothesis 9 * 10. Hypothesis 10 * 11. Hypothesis 11 * 12. Hypothesis 12 * F. Conclusion * V. Conclusion * A. Findings * B. Implications * C. Policy Critique, Recommendations, and Future Research
Book Synopsis Climate Change, Instability and a Full Spectrum Approach to Conflict Prevention in Africa by :
Download or read book Climate Change, Instability and a Full Spectrum Approach to Conflict Prevention in Africa written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is an emerging threat to the national security of the United States. It has the potential to enhance the underlying causes of failed and failing states in Africa resulting in an increased frequency of crisis response operations, taxing the armed forces already engaged in conflicts around the globe. If climate change is the catalyst of crises to come, Africa Command (AFRICOM) must employ innovative and proactive cooperative theater security plans and full spectrum stability operations to meet the challenges. This paper will first describe the threat posed by climate change and its implications for sub-Saharan Africa and U.S. national security. The paper will present an examination of the historical evidence for climate change as a conflict enabler and an analysis of the potentially destabilizing impact climate change poses for Nigeria. Recommendations for how AFRICOM should engage already fragile African nations, such as Nigeria, which are vulnerable to the affects of climate change, will be offered. Achieving increased capacity for Nigeria in order to overcome the destabilizing affects of global climate change is the goal. An integrated interagency, intergovernmental, and non-governmental organizational approach, coupled with an African Union led full spectrum stabilization, stability, transition and reconstruction (SSTR) concept, will be examined as the recommended course of action for the combatant commander to follow.
Book Synopsis The Horn of Africa by : Kidane Mengisteab
Download or read book The Horn of Africa written by Kidane Mengisteab and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Horn of Africa is a deeply troubled region engulfed in three interlocking crises. The first is a security crisis characterized by a range of devastating inter-state and inter-communal conflicts, including civil wars. The second is an economic crisis, evidenced by widespread debilitating poverty, chronic food insecurity, and frequent cycles of famines. The effects of the third - environmental - crisis are all too visible in the droughts, deforestation and desertification ravaging the region. What is more, these three crises are mutually reinforcing locking the region into a cycle of disaster. Conflicts contribute to poverty, which in turn intensifies environmental degradation, leading to scarcities which fuel further conflicts. In this clear and authoritative guide, Kidane Mengisteab explores the key drivers of instability in the Horn of Africa, suggesting structural and institutional changes that - if implemented - could help lift the region out of crisis. The Horn’s complex crises must be tackled in a comprehensive manner. But, he contends, this can only be achieved if the causes of conflict are addressed head-on. Without peace, the region cannot resolve its economic problems, and nor can it develop the capabilities required to cope with environmental change. The Horn of Africa will be essential reading for students and scholars in conflict and security studies, as well as anyone with an interest in learning more about the dynamics of this troubled region
Book Synopsis Shock Waves by : Stephane Hallegatte
Download or read book Shock Waves written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-11-23 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
Book Synopsis Contemporary Climate Change Debates by : Mike Hulme
Download or read book Contemporary Climate Change Debates written by Mike Hulme and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contemporary Climate Change Debates is an innovative new textbook which tackles some of the difficult questions raised by climate change. For the complex policy challenges surrounding climate migration, adaptation and resilience, structured debates become effective learning devices for students. This book is organised around 15 important questions, and is split into four parts: What do we need to know? What should we do? On what grounds should we base our actions? Who should be the agents of change? Each debate is addressed by pairs of one or two leading or emerging academics who present opposing viewpoints. Through this format the book is designed to introduce students of climate change to different arguments prompted by these questions, and also provides a unique opportunity for them to engage in critical thinking and debate amongst themselves. Each chapter concludes with suggestions for further reading and with discussion questions for use in student classes. Drawing upon the sciences, social sciences and humanities to debate these ethical, cultural, legal, social, economic, technological and political roadblocks, Contemporary Debates on Climate Change is essential reading for all students of climate change, as well as those studying environmental policy and politics and sustainable development more broadly.
Book Synopsis Africa and the Formation of the New System of International Relations—Vol. II by : Alexey M. Vasiliev
Download or read book Africa and the Formation of the New System of International Relations—Vol. II written by Alexey M. Vasiliev and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-11-04 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In light of the growing number of African summits and a new awareness of international interdependence during the COVID-19 pandemic, this book provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of Africa’s international relations (IR). Leading IR scholars from Africa and around the world examine international cooperation with African countries in areas such as health care, education, and peacekeeping and explore how Africa’s role in the system of international relations has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The book is divided into four parts, the first of which explores analyzes the various actors that constitute African agency in the post-pandemic world, while the second focuses on the summits of the major powers regarding cooperation with Africa. The third part covers public health cooperation and regional initiatives in Africa, including issues such as vaccine diplomacy, while the fourth and final part discusses conflicts & political process despite COVID Pandemics.
Book Synopsis Rethinking Climate Change, Conflict and Security by : Jan Selby
Download or read book Rethinking Climate Change, Conflict and Security written by Jan Selby and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-10-02 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is global climate change likely to become a significant source of violent conflict, and should it therefore be seen as a national security challenge? Most Northern governments, militaries, think tanks and NGOs believe so, as do many academic researchers, on the grounds that increased temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and rising sea levels will worsen existing social stresses, especially within poor societies and marginal communities across Africa and Asia. This book argues otherwise. The first collection of its kind, it brings together leading scholars of Anthropology, Geography, Development Studies and International Relations to provide a series of critical analyses of mainstream thinking on the climate-security nexus. It shows how policy discourse on climate conflict consistently misrepresents the causes of violence, especially by obscuring its core political dimensions. It demonstrates that quantitative research provides a flawed basis for understanding climate-conflict linkages. It argues that climate security discourse is in hoc with a range of questionable military, authoritarian and developmental agendas. And it reveals that the greening of global capitalism is already having violent consequences across the global South. Climate change, the book argues, does indeed have serious conflict and security implications – but these are quite different from how they are usually imagined. This book was published as a special issue of Geopolitics.
Book Synopsis Climate Change and European Security by : Richard Youngs
Download or read book Climate Change and European Security written by Richard Youngs and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-10-10 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is now commonly asserted that climate change will fundamentally change international relations. It has been predicted that global warming will increase conflict within and between states, intensify food insecurity, menace the global trading system and unleash waves of migration. As a result governments are beginning to incorporate these warnings into their foreign policy initiatives. The appropriateness of their incipient responses needs to be examined in finer detail. This book looks at the impact of climate change on European Union (EU) security policy. It explores how governments are reconfiguring their geo-strategy and broader international relations in the wake of climate change warnings. The book demonstrates that although many aspects of EU foreign policies have begun to change, ‘climate security’ is not yet accorded unequivocal or sufficient priority. In doing so, Youngs argues that if climate change policies are to have significant effect they can no longer be treated as a separate area of policy but must be incorporated into the more mainstream debates pertinent to EU common foreign and security policy (CFSP). This book will be of key interest to students, scholars and practitioners of climate change and policy, energy and environmental policy, EU governance and foreign policy, European studies, international relations, geography, security studies/policy and environmental economics.
