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The Impact Of The Russia Ukraine War On Key Global Commodities
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Book Synopsis The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Key Global Commodities by : Benjamin DiPiazza
Download or read book The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Key Global Commodities written by Benjamin DiPiazza and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Which commodities have seen price fluctuations caused by events tied to the Russia-Ukraine War, and to what extent have these commodity prices been impacted? To answer this question, an analysis of key events of the war as captured by global journalism, as well as commodity prices reported by the World Bank, are examined jointly to draw meaningful connections between the war and global commodity markets. This thesis zeroes in on three main commodity groups that are of primary interest due to their link to the war and widespread trading in global markets: hydrocarbons, agriculture, and metals and minerals. After analyzing price changes for each major area, the impacts on the business environment are explored, offering a better understanding of how a substantial European war in the twenty-first century can alter the global economy with immediacy. The findings of this thesis reveal that each of the commodity groups experienced extreme volatility after the onset of the war. With Ukraine and Russia being major suppliers of agricultural products, and Russia being a dominant player in hydrocarbons and metals and minerals, the world was forced to adapt accordingly. This thesis describes the actions taken by various governments including sanctions, embargoes, reallocation of resources, and engagement in new trade flows. Other themes explored in this thesis include Europe's overreliance on Russian hydrocarbons, whether the war will expedite the world's transition to renewable energy, and how commodity prices might behave moving forward.
Download or read book The War in Ukraine written by Simon Bodek and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global commodity markets have undergone significant turmoil since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the midst of this situation, Russia invaded Ukraine, sending prices skyrocketing. In the two years since this conflict began, the question has become: how has the Russia-Ukraine war impacted commodities long-term, and can those impacts have predictive value for future crises? This paper answers this question through a quantitative analysis of key exports, comparing those of the impacted country to global values, in particular those of price and lead time. Supplemental analysis of other crises since 2000 provide additional data points to determine how much a commodity's price increases in the global market due to the extent a country is a significant exporter of that particular commodity. The resulting regression model is then used to estimate the price increase of selected exports in a hypothetical China-Taiwan conflict. The findings indicate that commodities heavily produced in Ukraine and Russia have had significant price spikes but are dependent on the commodity and overall industry. Commodities that are more dependent on a particular country for production do not exhibit greater price increases than those that are not as dependent due to external market forces. A country's strength in exports only accounts for twenty percent of price increases. Yet despite this limitation, these variables provide a method to predict price changes in the face of mounting natural disasters and political conflicts that threaten global commodity markets.
Book Synopsis Russia-Ukraine war and the global crisis: Impacts on poverty and food security in developing countries by : Arndt, Channing
Download or read book Russia-Ukraine war and the global crisis: Impacts on poverty and food security in developing countries written by Arndt, Channing and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-09-27 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans in response to concerns about commodity shortages, have also contributed to rising prices. Figure 1 examines price changes in key food and nonfood commodities between June 2021 and June 2022. The period of interest for this study is June 2021 to April 2022. Over this period, palm oil and wheat prices increased by 68 and 113 percent in nominal terms, respectively. When deflated by the US Consumer Price Index, these price changes equate to 56 and 100 percent in real terms. Wide variation exists across food products, with nominal maize prices increasing by 19 per-cent (or 11 percent in real terms), and rice prices declining by 13 percent (or 7 percent in real terms) over the same period. Prices of nonfood commodities also rose substantially. Whereas crude oil prices rose 44 percent (or 34 percent in real terms), natural gas and fertilizer prices both doubled (or 88 and 101 percent in real terms, respectively). As shown in the breakdown in the bar chart, most of the price growth occurred after the start of the war in Ukraine, except for fertilizer.
Book Synopsis The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on International Trade by : Zsolt M. Darvas
Download or read book The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on International Trade written by Zsolt M. Darvas and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the economic implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, by scrutinising global trade volumes and commodity prices, trade balances and bilateral trade flows between major economic powers and Russia. We find that energy prices increased more in 2021 than in 2022, suggesting that the war and the sanctions were not the most important drivers. Nevertheless, International Monetary Fund forecast revisions from October 2021 to October 2022 suggest that the volume of global trade in goods and services declined by 3.4 percent, energy prices increased by about 100 percent, and the prices of non-energy commodities by 8 percent. The war could be an important driver of these forecast revisions, though other factors were also at play. While forecasts for important industrial production input costs were not revised, soaring energy prices deteriorated the trade balance of countries importing energy. Only half of the increase in Russia's trade surplus was related to soaring energy prices. The other half resulted from the collapse of Russian imports, which will likely undermine the Russian economy's productive capacity over time. Falling Russian exports of goods other than mineral fuels suggest Russia's productive capacity has already weakened. Russia's trade has been reoriented from advanced economies to China, India and Turkey, but this has only partially compensated for the decline in trade with advanced countries. We find that sanctions had an impact on trade. There is no evidence of European and US companies circumventing sanctions by re-routing sanctioned goods to Russia via China and Turkey. The UK and the US have already stopped importing fossil fuels from Russia, and such imports by the EU have declined. With the EU's Russian seaborne crude petroleum import ban taking effect in December 2022 and the refined petroleum ban coming to effect in February 2023, Russia's revenues from fossil fuel exports to the EU are set to shrink significantly, with limited options for redirecting exports to other countries. The three main policy-relevant implications from our research are: The war and the sanctions are not the most important drivers of energy price; The direct aim of sanctions seems to have been achieved; The capacity of the Russian state to finance the war from fossil fuel revenues is bound to shrink. The dataset used for most charts of this working paper is regularly updated and is available in the Russian foreign trade tracker.
Book Synopsis Challenges to International Trade and the Global Economy by : Christine Arriola
Download or read book Challenges to International Trade and the Global Economy written by Christine Arriola and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amidst the recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has resulted in new challenges to the global economy and to international trade. This report relies on detailed trade data to assess the impact of these two overlapping shocks on international trade and supply chains. In February 2022, global trade was approaching pre-Covid levels in absolute terms, but with a different product and geographical composition resulting in a continued sense of tension in the trading system. Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has added a new dimension of challenges as it has led to deliberate radical interruptions of trade linkages between Russia, Ukraine and many industrialised economies, with significant repercussions on prices of key commodities in the energy and agricultural sectors.
Book Synopsis Assessing the Impact of Russia’s War against Ukraine on Eastern Partner Countries by : OECD
Download or read book Assessing the Impact of Russia’s War against Ukraine on Eastern Partner Countries written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2023-01-21 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing a humanitarian, social and economic crisis for the Ukrainian people. The consequences of this full-scale military invasion are disrupting the global supply of commodities, sharply increasing food and energy prices, and threating the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Book Synopsis The Russia-Ukraine conflict and global food security by : Glauber, Joseph W.
Download or read book The Russia-Ukraine conflict and global food security written by Glauber, Joseph W. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-07-10 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, sparking fears of a global food crisis, IFPRI responded rapidly to the need for information and policy advice to address the crisis. From the first moments of the conflict, a new IFPRI blog series provided critical information and insights into the impacts on food security, caused by rising food, fertilizer, and fuel prices and trade disruptions, for vulnerable countries and regions. This book is a compilation of those blog posts, which include analysis of trade flows, tracking of food prices and policy responses, and results of impact modeling. Together, they provide an overview of how the crisis has progressed, how the international community and individual countries responded with efforts to ensure food security, and what we are learning about the best ways to ensure food security in the aftermath of a major shock to global food systems.
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book The Colder War written by Marin Katusa and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-10-17 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How the massive power shift in Russia threatens the political dominance of the United States There is a new cold war underway, driven by a massive geopolitical power shift to Russia that went almost unnoticed across the globe. In The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped from America's Grasp, energy expert Marin Katusa takes a look at the ways the western world is losing control of the energy market, and what can be done about it. Russia is in the midst of a rapid economic and geopolitical renaissance under the rule of Vladimir Putin, a tenacious KGB officer turned modern-day tsar. Understanding his rise to power provides the keys to understanding the shift in the energy trade from Saudi Arabia to Russia. This powerful new position threatens to unravel the political dominance of the United States once and for all. Discover how political coups, hostile takeovers, and assassinations have brought Russia to the center of the world's energy market Follow Putin's rise to power and how it has led to an upsetting of the global balance of trade Learn how Russia toppled a generation of robber barons and positioned itself as the most powerful force in the energy market Study Putin's long-range plans and their potential impact on the United States and the U.S. dollar If Putin's plans are successful, not only will Russia be able to starve other countries of power, but the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) will replace the G7 in wealth and clout. The Colder War takes a hard look at what is to come in a new global energy market that is certain to cause unprecedented impact on the U.S. dollar and the American way of life.
Book Synopsis Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen by : Breisinger, Clemens
Download or read book Model-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen written by Breisinger, Clemens and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-05-20 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evidence-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction is often constrained by missing data and the shortcomings of conventional analytical methods. To overcome these constraints, we use economy-wide modeling methods to model the impact of war and reconstruction possibilities for the economy of Yemen. We first calibrate the model to pre-conflict data (2014) and validate it by replicating the most recent available dynamic needs assessments for Yemen that were elaborated by the World Bank. We then report model scenario results for unobserved development indicators, such as estimates for sector-level growth, employment, and poverty. For the post-conflict period, we use the assumptions of a recent dynamic needs assessment and assume gradual reconstruction of the war-induced damages by the target year 2024. Then we focus on uncertain institutional factors and investigate their importance for the country’s socio-economic development. Finally, we assess the potential structural characteristics of Yemen’s economy in the year 2024 and analyze potential risks and trade-offs associated with government’s institutional performance and the implications these have for the pace of post-conflict reconstruction.
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the Annual International Conference on Social Science and Humanities (AICOSH 2022) by : Rama Kertamukti
Download or read book Proceedings of the Annual International Conference on Social Science and Humanities (AICOSH 2022) written by Rama Kertamukti and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-02-10 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access book. Understanding the problems of war and conflicts that occur both within and outside the sovereignty of the Republic of Indonesia, several discussions on the human side seem essential to do. Several interesting topics can be raised, namely how media coverage is inseparable from human life in the 5.0 era. Furthermore, about the social changes that occurred as a result of the conflict and war. Moreover, the discourse on how the psychological impact experienced by humans due to conflict and war. Departing from this, the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities UIN Sunan Kalijaga will hold the Annual International Conference on Social Sciences and Humanities 2022.
Book Synopsis The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Development in Africa by : David Mhlanga
Download or read book The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Development in Africa written by David Mhlanga and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War price shocks on the Bangladesh economy: A general equilibrium analysis by : Chowdhury, Tahreen Tahrima
Download or read book Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War price shocks on the Bangladesh economy: A general equilibrium analysis written by Chowdhury, Tahreen Tahrima and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-05-04 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The spike in global commodity prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war has had major adverse impacts on many developing countries, including Bangladesh, that still depend heavily on energy and food imports. Although the Bangladesh economy has rebounded after the COVID-19 pandemic, the latest global trade shock has threated to increase food insecurity and poverty. This study utilizes the Bangladesh RIAPA economywide model to assess the impact of increases in global commodity prices and explores potential policy interventions to reduce negative impacts. Simulation results show that increases in international commodity prices create a GDP loss of 0.36 percent and an increase of three million in the number of poor (mainly rural poor). Energy price shocks account for most of this decline in real GDP (0.28 percent). The fertilizer subsidy helps spur agriculture production which leads to an increase in crop GDP by 0.78 percent and total agricultural GDP by 0.43 percent. Changes in policy could help mitigate the effects of these price shocks. In particular, petroleum subsidies would help increase production in both agriculture and services, leading to a 0.3 percent increase in household consumption, considerably more than the gain under a targeted cash transfer policy of equal cost. However, given that the petroleum subsidy does not specifically target the poor, it only reduces poverty by a fraction of what a targeted cash transfer would. Moreover, as illustrated by the experiences of other countries, increases in a fuel subsidy, once introduced, are likely to be very difficult to reverse. This suggests that if the major policy goal is to reduce poverty, a direct cash transfer would be more effective than the other policy options considered here. Combining these policies, however, would be even more effective than any single intervention, reducing poverty incidence by around 2.5 million people, and thereby preventing nearly all of the potential increase in poverty resulting from global price shocks.
Book Synopsis The Economic Weapon by : Nicholas Mulder
Download or read book The Economic Weapon written by Nicholas Mulder and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2022 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tracing the history of economic sanctions from the blockades of World War I to the policing of colonial empires and the interwar confrontation with fascism, Nicholas Mulder combines political, economic, legal, and military history to reveal how a coercive wartime tool was adopted as an instrument of peacekeeping by the League of Nations.This timely study casts an overdue light on why sanctions are widely considered a form of war, and why their unintended consequences are so tremendous.
Book Synopsis Africa agriculture trade monitor 2023 by : Odjo, Sunday P.
Download or read book Africa agriculture trade monitor 2023 written by Odjo, Sunday P. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-09-18 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2023 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor, a flagship publication of AKADEMIYA2063 and the International Food Policy Research Institute, provides an overview of trade in agriculture in Africa, including analysis of short- and long-term trends and drivers behind Africa’s global trade, intra-African trade, and trade within Africa’s regional economic communities. The 2023 report highlights the growing treat of climate change to trade; looks closely at the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food security and poverty; draws on the report’s robust trade database to analyze African agrifood trade and nutrition; examines the types of trade agreements that successfully boost trade, and the implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement; and includes focused chapters on the competitiveness of cotton value chains in Africa and world trade and on trade integration in Economic Community of Central African States.
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Download or read book Petro-Aggression written by Jeff Colgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-31 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jeff D. Colgan explores why some oil-exporting countries are aggressive, while others are not. Using evidence from key countries such as Iraq, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, Petro-Aggression proposes a new theoretical framework to explain the importance of oil to international security.
