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The Behavioral Economics Of Foreign Exchange Markets
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Book Synopsis The Behavioral Economics of Foreign Exchange Markets by : Robert Schmidt
Download or read book The Behavioral Economics of Foreign Exchange Markets written by Robert Schmidt and published by Peter Lang Publishing. This book was released on 2006 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with psychological factors, which may be important for understanding the observable exchange rate movements. Thus, the study belongs to the new research field of behavioral economics, which considers the relevance of psychological factors in economic contexts. The main objective of behavioral economists is to develop a more realistic view of the actual human behavior in the context of economics. Central to the concept of behavioral economics is the assumption that humans' actual behavior deviates from the ideal of economic rationality due to at least two reasons: first, decisions are usually based on an incomplete information basis and, second, the information processing of human beings is limited by their computational capacities. Due to these limitations people are forced to apply simple heuristics in information processing. Our aim is to analyze the relevance of simple heuristics in the context of foreign exchange markets. In our view, the decision situation in foreign exchange markets can serve as a prime example for decision situations in which simple heuristics are especially relevant as the complexity of the decision situation is very high.
Book Synopsis The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market by : Thomas Oberlechner
Download or read book The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market written by Thomas Oberlechner and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the foreign exchange market by focusing on the people who comprise it. Drawing on the expertise of the very professionals whose decisions help shape the market, Thomas Oberlechner describes the highly interdependent relationship between financial decision makers and news providers, showing that the assumption that the foreign exchange market is purely economic and rational has to be replaced by a more complex market psychology.
Book Synopsis The Predictive Power of Behavioral Economics in the Foreign Exchange Market by : Vajiheh Mahdiyan Amirabadi
Download or read book The Predictive Power of Behavioral Economics in the Foreign Exchange Market written by Vajiheh Mahdiyan Amirabadi and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation explores the out-of-sample forecastability of changes in exchange rates using behavioral economics and combination methods and contributes to the literature by introducing three approaches presented in three essays. The first essay explores a new approach through behavioral heuristics to forecast changes in exchange rates. One key aspect of behavioral economics is that people do not use the realized distribution of historical data to predict variables. Instead, agents assign subjective probabilities which depend on heuristics in decision-making. These subjective probabilities are used as weights for the ten years of observations prior to time t in linear models of changes in exchange rates to estimate coefficients and form forecasts. This essay develops forecasting models for exchange rates using monthly data for the US dollar versus 37 (advanced and emerging/developing) currencies. The second essay incorporates behavioral economics by adding investor sentiment variables to macroeconomic models to form forecasts for exchange rates. In addition, I examine the predictive ability of a terms of trade index (in changes) both as a single predictor and as an added predictor in the uncovered interest rate parity model. Finally, I examine changes in commodity and oil prices (nominal and real) as predictors of changes in exchange rates. Some models provide promising results for some currencies using Pesaran-Timmermann (PT) statistics in both essays. In the first essay, models under the assumptions of anchoring-toward and optimism perform well. In the second essay, macroeconomic models augmented by behavioral factors outperform the White Noise (WN) model for several countries. The third essay of the dissertation addresses model uncertainty. It focuses on combining forecasts from various individual models introduced in the second essay. I use standard (e.g., equal weights) and new forecast combination approaches to form combined forecasts. Using a regularization technique (Ridge regression), I apply linear and convex combination estimates to combine forecasts. I propose Directional Prediction as a new weighting approach. The results indicate that for several countries, the linear combination (Ridge regression) weighting approach has proportions of correct direction of changes in exchange rates greater than 0.5, which means it performs better than the WN model.
Book Synopsis The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-05-15 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The foreign exchange market is the largest, fastest-growing financial market in the world. Yet conventional macroeconomic approaches do not explain why people trade foreign exchange. At the same time, they fail to explain the short-run determinants of the exchange rate. These nine innovative essays use a microstructure approach to analyze the workings of the foreign exchange market, with special emphasis on institutional aspects and the actual behavior of market participants. They examine the volume of transactions, heterogeneity of traders, the time of day and location of trading, the bid-ask spread, and the high level of exchange rate volatility that has puzzled many observers. They also consider the structure of the market, including such issues as nontransparency, asymmetric information, liquidity trading, the use of automated brokers, the relationship between spot and derivative markets, and the importance of systemic risk in the market. This timely volume will be essential reading for anyone interested in the economics of international finance.
Book Synopsis The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market by : Thomas Oberlechner
Download or read book The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market written by Thomas Oberlechner and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2004-11-30 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the foreign exchange market by focusing on the people who comprise it. Drawing on the expertise of the very professionals whose decisions help shape the market, Thomas Oberlechner describes the highly interdependent relationship between financial decision makers and news providers, showing that the assumption that the foreign exchange market is purely economic and rational has to be replaced by a more complex market psychology.
Book Synopsis The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework by : Paul De Grauwe
Download or read book The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework written by Paul De Grauwe and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an alternative view of the workings of foreign exchange markets. The authors' modeling approach is based on the idea that agents use simple forecasting rules and switch to those rules that have been shown to be the most profitable in the past. This selection mechanism is based on trial and error and is probably the best possible strategy in an uncertain world, the authors contend. It creates a rich dynamic in the foreign exchange markets and can generate bubbles and crashes. Sensitivity to initial conditions is a pervasive force in De Grauwe and Grimaldi's model. It explains why large exchange-rate changes and volatility clustering occur. It also has important implications for understanding how the news affects the exchange rate. De Grauwe and Grimaldi conclude that news in fundamentals has an unpredictable effect on the exchange rate. Sometimes, they maintain, it alters the exchange rate considerably; at other times it has no effectwhatsoever. The authors also use their model to analyze the effects of official interventions in the foreign exchange market. They show that simple intervention rules of the "leaning-against-the-wind" variety can be effective in eliminating bubbles and crashes in the exchange rate. They further demonstrate how, quite paradoxically, by intervening in the foreign exchange market the central bank makes the market look more efficient. Clear and comprehensive, The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework is a must-have for analysts in foreign exchange markets as well as students of international finance and economics.
Book Synopsis Imperfect Knowledge Economics by : Roman Frydman
Download or read book Imperfect Knowledge Economics written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2023-09-26 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Exchange Rates by : Jessica James
Download or read book Handbook of Exchange Rates written by Jessica James and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-05-29 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Book Synopsis The Economics of Foreign Exchange and Global Finance by : Peijie Wang
Download or read book The Economics of Foreign Exchange and Global Finance written by Peijie Wang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents all major subjects in international monetary theory, foreign exchange markets, international financial management and investment analysis. The book is relevant to real world problems in the sense that it provides guidance on how to solve policy issues as well as practical management tasks. This in turn helps the reader to gain an understanding of the theory and refines the framework. Various topics are interlinked so the book adopts a systematic treatment of integrated materials relating different theories under various circumstances and combining theory with practice. The text examines issues in international monetary policy and financial management in a practical way, focusing on the identification of the factors and players in foreign exchange markets and the international finance arena. The book can be used in graduate and advanced undergraduate programmes in international or global finance, international monetary economics, and international financial management.
Book Synopsis Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics by : Martin D D Evans
Download or read book Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics written by Martin D D Evans and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2017-06-28 with total page 791 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects my scholarly research on the behavior of foreign exchange rates conducted over the past twenty-five years. The collection includes papers that study the behavior of exchange rates from the traditional macroeconomic and newer microstructure perspectives. The former perspective considers the linkages between the macro economy and currency prices in an effort to understand the behavior of exchange rates over quarters, years and decades. By contrast, the microstructure perspective considers how the details of currency trading affect how macroeconomic information becomes embedded in currency prices, a process which drives exchange-rates over intraday horizons. The book also contains papers with a hybrid perspective that consider the details of currency trading and macroeconomic linkages in an effort to understand exchange-rate dynamics across all horizons.
Book Synopsis The Economics of Foreign Exchange by : Nick Douch
Download or read book The Economics of Foreign Exchange written by Nick Douch and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A pioneering exploration of the relevance of economic theory to the practical realities of the foreign exchange market, this volume presents a well-reasoned, comprehensive examination of the degree to which economic theories and forecasts are helpful in predicting exchange rates. Douch, an economist who has worked closely with the foreign exchange market, argues that theoretical economic models have exhibited some serious inadequacies in forecasting the future. In an attempt to determine the real predictive value of economic theory in this context, Douch examines each of the different economic approaches in-depth and then analyzes the actual workings of the foreign exchange market from the perspective of the market participants. Particular emphasis is placed upon the reasons for the observed failure of economic theory to reliably predict exchange rate movements over time.
Book Synopsis Gambler's Ruin in Foreign Exchange Markets by : John A. Carlson
Download or read book Gambler's Ruin in Foreign Exchange Markets written by John A. Carlson and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets (Routledge Revivals) by : Kathryn Dominguez
Download or read book Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets (Routledge Revivals) written by Kathryn Dominguez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-10-20 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 1992, examines the subject of foreign exchange market efficiency and, in particular, the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the market. This book is ideal for students of economics.
Book Synopsis THE BEHAVIOR OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS by : Steven W. KOHLHAGEN
Download or read book THE BEHAVIOR OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS written by Steven W. KOHLHAGEN and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Behavior of Foreign Exchange Markets by : Steven W. Kohlhagen
Download or read book The Behavior of Foreign Exchange Markets written by Steven W. Kohlhagen and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Institutional Economics of the Foreign Exchange Market by : Jörg Zeuner
Download or read book The Institutional Economics of the Foreign Exchange Market written by Jörg Zeuner and published by Peter Lang Pub Incorporated. This book was released on 2000 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The division of labour results in transactions. The need for transactions can in turn provoke coordination and cooperation failures. The competitive solution to such failures is the implementation of specific rules and regulations with a view towards minimizing unnecessary frictions in the exchange process. This view on the design of economic organizations has become widely acknowledged. However, applied institutional economics is still in its infancy and this work is an attempt to extend its frontier. The object of analysis is the exceptional rules and regulations of the foreign exchange market. In the absence of a comprehensive institutional economic theory of this particular organization, it is argued that the foreign exchange market structure helps market participants select their trading partners carefully in an international environment that by nature lacks a comprehensive legal framework for contract enforcement.
Book Synopsis Empirical Evidence on the Efficiency of Forward and Futures Foreign Exchange Markets by : Robert J. Hodrick
Download or read book Empirical Evidence on the Efficiency of Forward and Futures Foreign Exchange Markets written by Robert J. Hodrick and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-08-18 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a critical review of the empirical literature that studies the efficiency of the forward and futures markets for foreign exchange. It provides a useful foundation for research in developing quantitative measures of risk and expected return in international finance.
