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Stock Return Predictability With Financial Ratios
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Book Synopsis Stock Return Predictability with Financial Ratios by : Wasim Ud Din
Download or read book Stock Return Predictability with Financial Ratios written by Wasim Ud Din and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this paper is to investigate the stock return's predictability by using financial ratios and control variable of PSX 100 Index companies during period from 2001-2014. The current study mainly focuses on investigating better predictor of stock returns. The methodology is based on Ordinary Least Square (OLS) to estimate the multiple linear regression model. The correlation matrix shows that there is no multicollinearity found between variables. The result of F-Limer test shows that the panel data is appropriate while Hausman test shows that random effect model is appropriate to estimate the model. The results reveal that all variables are statistically significant but some variables have negative impact on stock returns such as asset turnover ratio, EPS, inflation, interest rate and GDP. However, debt ratio, return on sales, firm size, market return and Tobin's-Q have positive and significant impact on stock returns. In conclusion, potential investors not only focus on huge returns for investing in smaller market cap firms but also investing in large market cap firms of PSX 100 Index companies due to reason that large firms benefit from economies of scale. Furthermore, the stock returns are predictable through financial ratios and control variables in PSX 100 Index Companies and investors also set the investment criterion to see the firm size and Tobin's-Q when investing in large or small market cap companies to earn excess returns.
Book Synopsis Stock Return Predictability by : Arthur Ritter
Download or read book Stock Return Predictability written by Arthur Ritter and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2015-05-27 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 17 (1,3), University of St Andrews (School of Management), course: Investment and Portfolio Management, language: English, abstract: Empirical evidence of stock return predictability obtained by financial ratios or macroeconomic factors has received substantial attention and remains a controversial topic to date. This is no surprise given that the existence of return predictability is not only of interest to practitioners but also introduces severe implications for financial models of risk and return. Founded on the assumption of efficient capital markets, research on capital asset pricing models has instigated this emergence of stock return predictability factors. Analysing these factors categorically, this paper will provide a balanced discussion of advocates as well as sceptics of stock return predictability. This essay will commence by firstly outlining the fundamental assumptions of an efficient capital market and its implications for return predictability. Subsequently, a thorough focus will be placed on the most significant predictability factors, including fundamental financial ratios and macroeconomic indicators as well as the validity of sampling methods used to attain return forecasts. Lastly this essay will reflect on the findings while proposing areas of further research.
Book Synopsis Stock Return Predictability With Financial Ratios by : Sarathadevi Anandasayanan
Download or read book Stock Return Predictability With Financial Ratios written by Sarathadevi Anandasayanan and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study attempts to investigate financial ratios' predictive power, using the yearly time series data during the period of 2012-2017 for 33 listed manufacturing companies in Colombo Stock Exchange. This study specifically identifies the financial ratios, which are acknowledged as the predictors of stock returns in the share market, to test the stock return predictability on the Sri Lankan market. The financial ratios include the ratio of Dividend yield, Earnings per share, Earnings Yield which are most useful and effective on stock return predictability in order to cover a wide range of predictions which have been used by all most all the previous researches. The stock return predictability is analysed by regressing the Dividend Yield, Earning Per Share and Earning yield respectively on the yearly stock returns from 2012 to 2017 . The results shows high predictability power, since the R2-value is high and the coefficients are very significant and autocorrelation corrected standard errors. The results reveal that the three ratios hold a somehow predictive power regarding stock returns of the Listed Manufacturing Companies in Colombo Stock Exchange.
Book Synopsis Stock Return Predictability by : Anselm Rogowski
Download or read book Stock Return Predictability written by Anselm Rogowski and published by . This book was released on 2015-06-03 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 17 (1,3), University of St Andrews (School of Management), course: Investment and Portfolio Management, language: English, abstract: Empirical evidence of stock return predictability obtained by financial ratios or macroeconomic factors has received substantial attention and remains a controversial topic to date. This is no surprise given that the existence of return predictability is not only of interest to practitioners but also introduces severe implications for financial models of risk and return. Founded on the assumption of efficient capital markets, research on capital asset pricing models has instigated this emergence of stock return predictability factors. Analysing these factors categorically, this paper will provide a balanced discussion of advocates as well as sceptics of stock return predictability. This essay will commence by firstly outlining the fundamental assumptions of an efficient capital market and its implications for return predictability. Subsequently, a thorough focus will be placed on the most significant predictability factors, including fundamental financial ratios and macroeconomic indicators as well as the validity of sampling methods used to attain return forecasts. Lastly this essay will reflect on the findings while proposing areas of further research.
Book Synopsis Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics by : Robert A. Meyers
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Book Synopsis Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence by : Martin Lettau
Download or read book Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence written by Martin Lettau and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Predicting Stock Returns by : David G McMillan
Download or read book Predicting Stock Returns written by David G McMillan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-30 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive analysis of asset price movement. It examines different aspects of stock return predictability, the interaction between stock return and dividend growth predictability, the relationship between stocks and bonds, and the resulting implications for asset price movement. By contributing to our understanding of the factors that cause price movement, this book will be of benefit to researchers, practitioners and policy makers alike.
Book Synopsis Prediction of Stock Returns Using Financial Ratios and Feature Dimensionality Reduction by :
Download or read book Prediction of Stock Returns Using Financial Ratios and Feature Dimensionality Reduction written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Czech Republic written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1999-01-01 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ...the relationship between employment growth and output growth...is greatly affected by the functioning, efficiency and institutional structure of the labor market. --Joseph Stiglitz, Chief Economist Despite the resumption of economic growth in most LAC countries since the late 1980s, improvements on the employment/unemployment front have been sluggish at best, with a few notable exceptions. In many countries, renewed growth in LAC in the 1990s has so far failed to generate adequate new jobs in place of those lost during the adjustment, and to restore wages to pre-crisis levels. The focus of this book is on: · the performance of labor markets in the LAC region since the beginning of significant structural reforms most countries in the region have undertaken · the structure of labor markets, institutions, and incentive structures; · the effects of that structure on employment, earnings, income distribution, and poverty levels; · the role of labor market institutions in labor market trends; · the options for reform and the benefits of comprehensive labor reforms, as evidenced inside and outside the region; · labor policy reforms to improve in a sustainable way the employment/unemployment outlook.
Book Synopsis Knowledge-Based Systems by : Rajendra Akerkar
Download or read book Knowledge-Based Systems written by Rajendra Akerkar and published by Jones & Bartlett Publishers. This book was released on 2009-08-25 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A knowledge-based system (KBS) is a system that uses artificial intelligence techniques in problem-solving processes to support human decision-making, learning, and action. Ideal for advanced-undergraduate and graduate students, as well as business professionals, this text is designed to help users develop an appreciation of KBS and their architecture and understand a broad variety of knowledge-based techniques for decision support and planning. It assumes basic computer science skills and a math background that includes set theory, relations, elementary probability, and introductory concepts of artificial intelligence. Each of the 12 chapters is designed to be modular, providing instructors with the flexibility to model the book to their own course needs. Exercises are incorporated throughout the text to highlight certain aspects of the material presented and to simulate thought and discussion. A comprehensive text and resource, Knowledge-Based Systems provides access to the most current information in KBS and new artificial intelligences, as well as neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, and soft systems.
Book Synopsis International Stock Return Predictability by : Amélie Charles
Download or read book International Stock Return Predictability written by Amélie Charles and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate whether stock returns of international markets are predictable from a range of fundamentals including key financial ratios (dividend-price ratio, dividend-yield, earnings-price ratio, dividend-payout ratio), technical indicators (price pressure, change in volume), and short-term interest rates. We adopt two new alternative testing and estimation methods: the improved augmented regression method and wild bootstrapping of predictive model based on a restricted VAR form. Both methods take explicit account of endogeneity of predictors, providing bias-reduced estimation and improved statistical inference in small samples. From monthly data of 16 Asia-Pacific (including U.S.) and 21 European stock markets from 2000 to 2014, we find that the financial ratios show weak predictive ability with small effect sizes and poor out-of-sample forecasting performances. In contrast, the price pressure and interest rate are found to be strong predictors for stock return with large effect sizes and satisfactory out-of-sample forecasting performance.
Book Synopsis Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence by : Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Download or read book Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence written by Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evidence of stock return predictability by financial ratios is still controversial, as documented by inconsistent results for in-sample and out-of-sample regressions and by substantial parameter instability. This paper shows that these seemingly incompatible results can be reconciled if the assumption of a fixed steady-state mean of the economy is relaxed. We find strong empirical evidence in support of shifts in the steady-state and propose simple methods to adjust financial ratios for such shifts. The forecasting relationship of adjusted price ratios and future returns is statistically significant and stable over time. We also show that shifts in the steady-state are responsible for the parameter instability and poor out-of-sample performance of unadjusted price ratios that are found in the data. Our conclusions hold for a variety of financial ratios and are robust to changes in the econometric technique used to estimate shifts in the steady-state.
Book Synopsis The Relationship of Common Stock Returns to Financial Ratios by : John Joseph Micetich
Download or read book The Relationship of Common Stock Returns to Financial Ratios written by John Joseph Micetich and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence In-Sample Forecasts, Out-of-Sample Forecasts, and Parameter Instability* by : Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Download or read book Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence In-Sample Forecasts, Out-of-Sample Forecasts, and Parameter Instability* written by Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evidence of stock return predictability by financial ratios is still controversial, as documented by inconsistent results for in-sample and out-of-sample regressions and by substantial parameter instability. This paper shows that these seemingly incompatible results can be reconciled if the assumption of a fixed steady-state mean of the economy is relaxed. We find strong empirical evidence in support of shifts in the steady-state and propose simple methods to adjust financial ratios for such shifts. The forecasting relationships of adjusted price ratios and future returns is statistically significant, stable over time, and present in out-of-sample tests. We also show that shifts in the steady-state are responsible for the parameter instability and poor out-of sample performance of unadjusted price ratios that are found in the data. Our conclusions hold for a variety of financial ratios and are robust to changes in the econometric technique used to estimate shifts in the steady-state.
Book Synopsis Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond by : Thomas E. Berghage
Download or read book Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond written by Thomas E. Berghage and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2014-07-30 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond For years, financial analysts have struggled with the fact that practically all the financial measures used to analyze corporate performance lack predictive power when it comes to forecasting the market performance of the company’s stock. Numerous academic studies have documented and reported this lack of predictability. Correlation coefficients close to zero have been reported for the relationship between stock market performance and such critical financial measures as earnings growth, sales growth, price/earnings ratio, return on equity, intrinsic value (models based on discounted cash flow or dividends), and many more. It is this disconnect between traditional financial measures and the performance of stocks in the marketplace that has led to the now-famous efficient market hypothesis, the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. To accept the idea that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable is to say that nothing a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market, and that is absurd. It would be more accurate to say that everything a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market. The problem with this statement is that it makes the forecasting of future stock performance so complex that it removes it from the realm of human solution. Confident in the belief that something other than chance and irrational investors determine future stock prices, several research groups around the world have started exploring the use of intelligent computer programs (programs that self-organize based on environmental feedback). Early results are very promising and have provided a glimpse of the economic forces described by Adam Smith as the invisible hand that guides economic activity. Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond describes the stock analysis problem and explores one of the more successful efforts to harness the new intelligent computer technology. Many people mistakenly classify Artificially Intelligent (AI) computer systems as a form of quantitative analysis. There are two distinct differences between advanced AI systems and traditional quantitative analysis. They are (1) who makes up the selection rules and weighting and (2) what information is used to discriminate between good- and poor-performing securities. In most quantitative systems, even in an advanced expert system form, humans make up the investment rules and mathematically derive the weightings associated with the rules. Computer systems that depend on outside human intelligence to program their actions are not inherently intelligent. In advanced AI systems, the computer makes up its own rules and weightings. The computer learns from examples of good- and poor-performing stocks and determines its own ways for discriminating between them. The procedures that are derived by the computer are often so complex that they defy human understanding. In addition to making up its own rules, advanced AI systems look at corporate financial data differently. Just like in the human brain, where information is not stored in the brain cells but rather in the connections and relationships between cells, so too is corporate performance information stored in the relationships between financial numbers. Assessing the performance of companies is not so much in the numbers as it is in the connections between the numbers. Financial analysts recognized this early on and have used first-order relational information in the form of financial ratios for many years (price/book, debt/equity, current assets / current liabilities, price/earnings, etc.). Now with advanced AI systems, we are finally able to look at and evaluate high-order interrelationships in financial data that have been far too complex to analyze with less sophisticated systems. These then are the fundamental differences between what has been used in the past and what will be used in the future. Cdr. Thomas E. Berghage
Book Synopsis Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence In-Sample Forecasts, Out-of-Sample Forecasts, and Parameter Instability by : Martin Lettau
Download or read book Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence In-Sample Forecasts, Out-of-Sample Forecasts, and Parameter Instability written by Martin Lettau and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evidence of stock return predictability by financial ratios is still controversial, as documented by inconsistent results for in-sample and out-of-sample regressions and by substantial parameter instability. This paper shows that these seemingly incompatible results can be reconciled if the assumption of a fixed steady-state mean of the economy is relaxed. We find strong empirical evidence in support of shifts in the steady-state and propose simple methods to adjust financial ratios for such shifts. The forecasting relationships of adjusted price ratios and future returns is statistically significant, stable over time, and present in out-of-sample tests. We also show that shifts in the steady-state are responsible for the parameter instability and poor out-of sample performance of unadjusted price ratios that are found in the data. Our conclusions hold for a variety of financial ratios and are robust to changes in the econometric technique used to estimate shifts in the steady-state.
Book Synopsis Are Price-Based Financial Ratios Able to Predict Individual Stock Returns? by : Kristoffer Fabricius Birch
Download or read book Are Price-Based Financial Ratios Able to Predict Individual Stock Returns? written by Kristoffer Fabricius Birch and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
