Spillovers From Chinas Growth Slowdown And Rebalancing To The Asean 5 Economies

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Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Author : Allan Dizioli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475524269
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies by : Allan Dizioli

Download or read book Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-09 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.

Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

Author : Allan Dizioli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475554435
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy by : Allan Dizioli

Download or read book Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.

China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown

Author : Gee Hee Hong
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475526601
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown by : Gee Hee Hong

Download or read book China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown written by Gee Hee Hong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-16 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.

China’s Economic Growth

Author : Mr.Athanasios Vamvakidis
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455201766
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis China’s Economic Growth by : Mr.Athanasios Vamvakidis

Download or read book China’s Economic Growth written by Mr.Athanasios Vamvakidis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents some facts on China’s role in the world economy and measures the impact of China’s growth on growth in the rest of the world in the short and long term. Short-run estimates based on VARs and error-correction models suggest that spillover effects of China’s growth have increased in recent decades. Long-term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.

Investment-Led Growth in China

Author : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475515057
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Investment-Led Growth in China by : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja

Download or read book Investment-Led Growth in China written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, China’s growth model has become more reliant on investment and its footprint in global imports has widened substantially. Several economies within China’s supply chain are increasingly exposed to its investment-led growth and face growing risks from a deceleration in investment in China. This note quantifies potential global spillovers from an investment slowdown in China. It finds that a one percentage point slowdown in investment in China is associated with a reduction of global growth of just under one-tenth of a percentage point. The impact is about five times larger than in 2002. Regional supply chain economies and commodity exporters with relatively less diversified economies are most vulnerable to an investment slowdown in China. The spillover effects also register strongly across a range of macroeconomic, trade, and financial variables among G20 trading partners.

Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model

Author : Rui Mano
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475557116
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model by : Rui Mano

Download or read book Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model written by Rui Mano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-27 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China’s move up the value chain in particular has the potential for signficant spillovers – on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model’s strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors.

When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?

Author : Mr.Sohrab Rafiq
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475556780
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold? by : Mr.Sohrab Rafiq

Download or read book When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold? written by Mr.Sohrab Rafiq and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper looks at the effects of a China slowdown on Emerging Market Economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) and Frontier Developing Economies (Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam) in ASEAN. The main finding is that the impact of China growth shocks on ASEAN has risen since the global financial crisis. A one percent decline in China’s growth implies a 0.3 percent reduction in growth for ASEAN EMEs and 0.2 for FDEs. An important component of inflation is also shared between ASEAN and China. These magnitudes are double what they were two decades ago due to stronger trade and financial linkages. Finally, a slowdown in China, while having real effects, also has a financial impact via slower credit growth and lower equity prices. This is in line with the existence of both portfolio balance and signaling channels, in which ASEAN market participants absorb news on China economic activity as an indicator over domestic growth prospects.

Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade

Author : Patrick Blagrave
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475539460
Total Pages : 18 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade by : Patrick Blagrave

Download or read book Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.

Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model

Author : Rui Mano
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475553749
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model by : Rui Mano

Download or read book Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model written by Rui Mano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China’s move up the value chain in particular has the potential for significant spillovers – on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model’s strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors.

Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

Author : Allan Dizioli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 147555222X
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy by : Allan Dizioli

Download or read book Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-08 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.

Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential

Author : Mr.Luis E Breuer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148433714X
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential by : Mr.Luis E Breuer

Download or read book Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential written by Mr.Luis E Breuer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-01 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overview by former Finance Minister Chatib Basri, with subsequent chapters covering diverse sectors of the economy as well as Indonesia’s place in the global economy.

China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets

Author : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475525133
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets by : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp

Download or read book China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-12 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper finds that financial spillovers from China to regional markets are on the rise. The main transmission channel appears to be trade linkages, although direct financial linkages are playing an increasing role. Without an impact on global risk premiums, China’s influence on regional markets is not yet to the level of the United States, but comparable to that of Japan. If China-related shocks are coupled with a rise in global risk premiums, as in August 2015 and January 2016, spillovers to the region could be significantly larger. Over the medium term, China’s financial spillovers could rise further with tighter financial linkages with the region, including through the ongoing internationalization of the renminbi and China’s capital account liberalization.

China’s Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports

Author : Mr.Yibin Mu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484336313
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis China’s Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports by : Mr.Yibin Mu

Download or read book China’s Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports written by Mr.Yibin Mu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of China’s impacts on the 44 SSA countries reveals that: (i) after joining the WTO in 2001, China has started to impact significantly on SSA growth: one-percent increase in China’s GDP per capita leads to 0.02 percent increase on the SSA’s GDP per capita; (ii) oil and investment-goods exporters benefit more from China’s growth; (iii) compared to China’s consumption, its investment growth acts as a more important channel in influencing SSA; (iv) exports to China, highly linked to China’s growth, is an important indicator for SSA’s exports. Our results call for SSA countries to be well prepared for China’s rebalancing given its growing economic influence and to proactively search a sustainable way to continuously enhance productivity.

Singapore

Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475521049
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Singapore by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Download or read book Singapore written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-29 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Singapore’s economy continues to perform well despite being hit by a combination of cyclical and structural factors, originating both at home and abroad. Growth moderated from 3.3 percent in 2014 to 2 percent in 2015, and it was 2.2 percent in the first half of 2016. Unemployment has remained low, but net employment generation slowed rapidly in 2015, and headline inflation has stayed below zero since late 2014. Growth is projected to moderate slightly to 1.7 percent in 2016 as the full impact of the global shocks experienced in 2015 is felt, and is expected to recover to 2.2 percent in 2017.

World Economic Outlook, October 2016

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513599542
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2016 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Asia and Pacific

Author : Mr.Ranil M Salgado
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498350925
Total Pages : 145 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Asia and Pacific by : Mr.Ranil M Salgado

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Asia and Pacific written by Mr.Ranil M Salgado and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-03 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although Asia remains a growth leader in the global economy, growth is expected to ease slightly to 5.5 percent during 2016, with countries affected to varying degrees by a still weak global recovery, slowing global trade, and the short-term impact of China’s growth transition. Structural reforms are needed if Asia is to maintain its position in the global economy, including reforms aimed at enhancing productive capacity. Needed reforms range from state-owned enterprise and financial sector reform in China to labor and product market reforms in Japan and reforms to remove supply bottlenecks in India, ASEAN, frontier economies, and small states.

China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV

Author : Mr.Koshy Mathai
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513544993
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV by : Mr.Koshy Mathai

Download or read book China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV written by Mr.Koshy Mathai and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-01 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.