Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475524269
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies by : Allan Dizioli

Download or read book Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-09 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.

Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475528949
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies by : Allan Dizioli

Download or read book Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-20 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.

China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475526601
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown by : Gee Hee Hong

Download or read book China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown written by Gee Hee Hong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-16 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.

China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475531710
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV by : Mr.Koshy Mathai

Download or read book China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV written by Mr.Koshy Mathai and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-01 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.

The ASEAN Way

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513558900
Total Pages : 311 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis The ASEAN Way by : Ms.Ana Corbacho

Download or read book The ASEAN Way written by Ms.Ana Corbacho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-02 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.

Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475553749
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model by : Rui Mano

Download or read book Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model written by Rui Mano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China’s move up the value chain in particular has the potential for significant spillovers – on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model’s strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors.

Asia Rising

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Author :
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1781007985
Total Pages : 449 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (81 download)

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Book Synopsis Asia Rising by : Hal Hill

Download or read book Asia Rising written by Hal Hill and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'This book provides a coherent and current account of how India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and the People's Republic of China coped with the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s and the recent global economic recession, and how they may address future challenges in maintaining growth in difficult times. It features a valuable overview of issues from a regional perspective, five chapters on general elements and obstacles in development, and individual chapters on the experience of each of the six countries. Every chapter is replete with relevant institutional and statistical data. The volume fills a void in the literature and is highly recommended for graduate students and for economists concerned with contemporary Asia.' – Peter Drake, The University of New England and Australian Catholic University, Australia 'To understand what makes Asia tick in the face of continuing global uncertainty and instability one has to go beyond numbers into the region's psyche and idiosyncrasies. This volume provides an interestingly intrusive and refreshingly insightful analysis of a highly complex phenomenon that defies generalizations as shown by the diversity of individual country experiences.' – Mohamed Ariff, International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance (INCEIF), Malaysia The center of global economic activity is shifting rapidly towards Asia, driven by a combination of the economic dynamism of the People's Republic of China, India, and other middle-income Asian countries, and sluggish growth in the OECD economies. The rapid growth and rising global prominence have raised a range of major challenges for Asia and for the rest of the world. This comprehensive, forward-looking book examines these issues through in-depth studies of major Asian economies and an analysis of the key development policy options. The contributors, leading international authorities in their field, explore cross-cutting thematic issues with special reference to developing Asia. They address a broad range of subjects including: investment and productivity, savings and the savings–investment relationship, financial development, the provision of infrastructure, and governance and institutions. Detailed country studies focusing on the People's Republic of China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand not only provide an analytical narrative for each case study, but also draw attention to the similarities and diversity within the region. This challenging and thought-provoking book will prove an important point of reference for scholars, researchers, and students in the fields of economics, development economics, and Asian studies.

Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475554435
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy by : Allan Dizioli

Download or read book Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.

World Economic Outlook, October 2013

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484348834
Total Pages : 657 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

Global Economic Prospects, June 2021

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Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464816662
Total Pages : 339 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 by : World Bank

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148433714X
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential by : Mr.Luis E Breuer

Download or read book Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential written by Mr.Luis E Breuer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-01 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overview by former Finance Minister Chatib Basri, with subsequent chapters covering diverse sectors of the economy as well as Indonesia’s place in the global economy.

The Global Trade Slowdown

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498399134
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis The Global Trade Slowdown by : Cristina Constantinescu

Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475525133
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets by : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp

Download or read book China’s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-12 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper finds that financial spillovers from China to regional markets are on the rise. The main transmission channel appears to be trade linkages, although direct financial linkages are playing an increasing role. Without an impact on global risk premiums, China’s influence on regional markets is not yet to the level of the United States, but comparable to that of Japan. If China-related shocks are coupled with a rise in global risk premiums, as in August 2015 and January 2016, spillovers to the region could be significantly larger. Over the medium term, China’s financial spillovers could rise further with tighter financial linkages with the region, including through the ongoing internationalization of the renminbi and China’s capital account liberalization.

China’s Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484336313
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis China’s Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports by : Mr.Yibin Mu

Download or read book China’s Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports written by Mr.Yibin Mu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of China’s impacts on the 44 SSA countries reveals that: (i) after joining the WTO in 2001, China has started to impact significantly on SSA growth: one-percent increase in China’s GDP per capita leads to 0.02 percent increase on the SSA’s GDP per capita; (ii) oil and investment-goods exporters benefit more from China’s growth; (iii) compared to China’s consumption, its investment growth acts as a more important channel in influencing SSA; (iv) exports to China, highly linked to China’s growth, is an important indicator for SSA’s exports. Our results call for SSA countries to be well prepared for China’s rebalancing given its growing economic influence and to proactively search a sustainable way to continuously enhance productivity.

Singapore

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475521189
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Singapore by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Download or read book Singapore written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-29 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Singapore’s economy continues to perform well despite being hit by a combination of cyclical and structural factors, originating both at home and abroad. Growth moderated from 3.3 percent in 2014 to 2 percent in 2015, and it was 2.2 percent in the first half of 2016. Unemployment has remained low, but net employment generation slowed rapidly in 2015, and headline inflation has stayed below zero since late 2014. Growth is projected to moderate slightly to 1.7 percent in 2016 as the full impact of the global shocks experienced in 2015 is felt, and is expected to recover to 2.2 percent in 2017.

World Economic Outlook, October 2016

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513599542
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2016 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Asia and Pacific

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Author :
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498350925
Total Pages : 145 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Asia and Pacific by : Mr.Ranil M Salgado

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Asia and Pacific written by Mr.Ranil M Salgado and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-03 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although Asia remains a growth leader in the global economy, growth is expected to ease slightly to 5.5 percent during 2016, with countries affected to varying degrees by a still weak global recovery, slowing global trade, and the short-term impact of China’s growth transition. Structural reforms are needed if Asia is to maintain its position in the global economy, including reforms aimed at enhancing productive capacity. Needed reforms range from state-owned enterprise and financial sector reform in China to labor and product market reforms in Japan and reforms to remove supply bottlenecks in India, ASEAN, frontier economies, and small states.