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Spatial Spillovers In Emerging Market Spreads
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Book Synopsis Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads by : Mr.Emanuele Baldacci
Download or read book Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads written by Mr.Emanuele Baldacci and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-09-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use novel spatial econometrics techniques to explore spillovers in the sovereign bond market for 24 emerging economies during 1995-2010. The paper extends the previous literature focusing on spillover effects from advanced to emerging economies by analyzing transmission of shocks across emerging markets. After controlling for the impact of global factors, we find strong evidence of spillovers from both sovereign spreads and macroeconomic fundamentals in neighboring emerging economies. In addition to the geographical proximity, the channels of spatial transmission include trade and financial linkages. The results of the paper highlight the importance of accounting not only for spillovers from advanced economies to emerging markets, but also across emerging markets when analyzing sovereign spreads.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Emerging Market Bond Spread by : Hong G. Min
Download or read book Determinants of Emerging Market Bond Spread written by Hong G. Min and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: March 1998 Macroeconomic variables matter and so does liquidity. External shocks (international interest rates) appear not to matter. In the 1990s international bond issues from developing countries surged dramatically, becoming one of the fastest-growing devices for financing external development. Their terms have improved as institutional investors have become more interested in emerging market securities and better economic prospects in a number of developing countries. But little is known about what determines the pricing and thus the yield spreads of new emerging market bond issues. Min investigates what determines bond spreads in emerging markets in the 1990s. He finds that strong macroeconomic fundamentals in a country-such as low domestic inflation rates, improved terms of trade, and increased foreign assets-are associated with lower yield spreads. By contrast, higher yield spreads are associated with weak liquidity variables in a country, such as a high debt-to-GDP ratio, a low ratio of foreign reserves to GDP, a low (high) export (import) growth rate, and a high debt-service ratio. At the same time, external shocks-as measured by the international interest rate-matter little in the determination of bond spreads. In the aggregate, Latin American countries have a negative yield curve. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to study international transmission of financial crises in emerging economies.
Book Synopsis International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by : Andrea Presbitero
Download or read book International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Andrea Presbitero and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-24 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What determines the ability of low-income developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) that issued sovereign bonds at least once during the period 1995-2013 as well as those that did not. We find that an EMDE is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, and has stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. With regard to global factors, the results show that sovereign bond spreads are reduced in periods of lower market volatility.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads by : Nazim Belhocine
Download or read book The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads written by Nazim Belhocine and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do financial markets respond to concerns over debt sustainability and the level of public debt in emerging markets? We introduce a measure of debt sustainability – the difference between the debt stabilizing primary balance and the primary balance–in an otherwise standard spread regression model applied to a panel of 26 emerging market economies. We find that debt sustainability is an important determinant of spreads. In addition, using a panel smooth transition regression model, we find that the sensitivity of spreads to debt sustainability doubles as public debt increases above 45 percent of GDP. These results suggest that market interest rates react more to debt sustainability concerns in a country with a high level of debt compared to a country with a low level of debt.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498351026 Total Pages :133 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Ukraine by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Ukraine written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses Ukraine’s 2013 Article IV Consultation and First Post-Program Monitoring. The Ukrainian economy has been in recession since mid-2012, and the outlook remains challenging. In January–September 2013, GDP contracted by 11⁄4 percent year-over-year, reflecting lower demand for Ukrainian exports and falling investments. Consumer prices stayed flat, held down by decreasing food prices and tight monetary policy. The fiscal stance loosened in 2012–2013, contributing to the buildup of vulnerabilities. Ukraine remains current on all its payments to the IMF, and the authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to repay all outstanding IMF credit.
Book Synopsis Complexity and Geographical Economics by : Pasquale Commendatore
Download or read book Complexity and Geographical Economics written by Pasquale Commendatore and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-17 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The uneven geographical distribution of economic activities is a huge challenge worldwide and also for the European Union. In Krugman’s New Economic Geography economic systems have a simple spatial structure. This book shows that more sophisticated models should visualise the EU as an evolving trade network with a specific topology and different aggregation levels. At the highest level, economic geography models give a bird eye’s view of spatial dynamics. At a medium level, institutions shape the economy and the structure of (financial and labour) markets. At the lowest level, individual decisions interact with the economic, social and institutional environment; the focus is on firms’ decision on location and innovation. Such multilevel models exhibit complex dynamic patterns – path dependence, cumulative causation, hysteresis – on a network structure; and specific analytic tools are necessary for studying strategic interaction, heterogeneity and nonlinearities.
Book Synopsis Sub-Saharan Africa’s Risk Perception Premium: In the Search of Missing Factors by : William Gbohoui
Download or read book Sub-Saharan Africa’s Risk Perception Premium: In the Search of Missing Factors written by William Gbohoui and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-23 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers from the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region often flag a mispricing of their sovereign debt presumably originating from a perception risk by international investors that lead to "unjustifiably" high borrowing costs. Against this background, this paper explores the extent to which a potential SSA premium exists in the financial markets following a broader two-fold approach. Firstly, using a sample of 1592 international primary sovereign fixed coupon bonds issued between 2003-2021 from Bond Radar by 89 countries, we find that SSA countries pay significantly higher coupon at issuance compared to their peers from other regions. Secondly, we assess whether there is any bias against SSA countries in the secondary market that would result in higher refinancing cost. Based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly data covering 107 countries over 1990 – 2022, we find that SSA countries pay higher refinancing costs in the secondary market. The paper further explores whether there are other factors overlooked by the literature that matter for the risk pricing by international investors. In that respect, we explore the sensitivity of spreads to some structural dimensions where SSA countries face acute challenges―the transparency of budget process, the importance of the informal sector, the level of financial development, and the quality of public institutions. The results show that the excess premium estimated for SSA countries vanishes when these structural factors are accounted for in the regressions.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads by : Iva Petrova
Download or read book Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads written by Iva Petrova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.
Book Synopsis Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics by : Cira Perna
Download or read book Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics written by Cira Perna and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-04-03 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book includes a wide selection of the papers presented at the 48th Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society (SIS2016), held in Salerno on 8-10 June 2016. Covering a wide variety of topics ranging from modern data sources and survey design issues to measuring sustainable development, it provides a comprehensive overview of the current Italian scientific research in the fields of open data and big data in public administration and official statistics, survey sampling, ordinal and symbolic data, statistical models and methods for network data, time series forecasting, spatial analysis, environmental statistics, economic and financial data analysis, statistics in the education system, and sustainable development. Intended for researchers interested in theoretical and empirical issues, this volume provides interesting starting points for further research.
Book Synopsis The European Debt Crisis by : Ali Ari
Download or read book The European Debt Crisis written by Ali Ari and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2014-03-17 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis is considered to be the most severe crisis which has led to a synchronised recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s. Europe is the most affected region in the world as a result of this crisis, and, as such, the sovereign debt crisis remains the most important issue in the Eurozone and threatens the future of the EU. This book provides answers, from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, to the following questions: What caused the global and European debt crises? What are the consequences of these crises? Why, despite the implementation of several policy measures, are these crises still affecting the world economy? What are the solutions to end the on-going crisis situation in the Eurozone? How can future crisis episodes in the world economy be prevented? Eleven quality papers from both academics and professionals are included in this volume, each of which provides a significant source, reference, and teaching supplement for researchers, policymakers and advanced graduate students. In addition, the papers collected here will also provide supplementary readings for advanced courses for graduate students in economics and European studies.
Book Synopsis Spatial Econometrics by : J. Paul Elhorst
Download or read book Spatial Econometrics written by J. Paul Elhorst and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-09-30 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an overview of three generations of spatial econometric models: models based on cross-sectional data, static models based on spatial panels and dynamic spatial panel data models. The book not only presents different model specifications and their corresponding estimators, but also critically discusses the purposes for which these models can be used and how their results should be interpreted.
Book Synopsis Investment-Led Growth in China by : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja
Download or read book Investment-Led Growth in China written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, China’s growth model has become more reliant on investment and its footprint in global imports has widened substantially. Several economies within China’s supply chain are increasingly exposed to its investment-led growth and face growing risks from a deceleration in investment in China. This note quantifies potential global spillovers from an investment slowdown in China. It finds that a one percentage point slowdown in investment in China is associated with a reduction of global growth of just under one-tenth of a percentage point. The impact is about five times larger than in 2002. Regional supply chain economies and commodity exporters with relatively less diversified economies are most vulnerable to an investment slowdown in China. The spillover effects also register strongly across a range of macroeconomic, trade, and financial variables among G20 trading partners.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers by : Bertrand Candelon
Download or read book Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers written by Bertrand Candelon and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the spillover effects of sovereign rating news on European financial markets during the period 2007-2010. Our main finding is that sovereign rating downgrades have statistically and economically significant spillover effects both across countries and financial markets. The sign and magnitude of the spillover effects depend both on the type of announcements, the source country experiencing the downgrade and the rating agency from which the announcements originates. However, we also find evidence that downgrades to near speculative grade ratings for relatively large economies such as Greece have a systematic spillover effects across Euro zone countries. Rating-based triggers used in banking regulation, CDS contracts, and investment mandates may help explain these results.
Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Growth in Emerging Economies by : Arzu Akkoyunlu Wigley
Download or read book The Dynamics of Growth in Emerging Economies written by Arzu Akkoyunlu Wigley and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-12-19 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can Turkey increase its medium- and long-term growth potential? Despite episodes of fast growth, this has become a vital question for the Turkish economy, in order to avoid being stuck in a middle-income trap. There has been an increase in the number of studies presenting growth in Turkey and quantifying the sources of economic growth, however, due to the difference in the main underlying assumptions and the time period covered in these studies, the results differ. The second strand of literature on growth in Turkey identifies the relative underperformance of the Turkish economy by developing models with microeconomic foundations. Given the fact that there are a large number of studies investigating the macro dynamics of growth in Turkey, the book’s unique focus on the "neglected" issues in growth discussions closes the gap in the existing literature. It addresses the micro, macro, regional, and gender aspects, the environment–energy–growth nexus, as well as the microeconomic dynamics of growth. It also analyses the other significant determinants of long run growth in Turkey such as import dependency and saving-investment decision. The authors provide a macro overview of all of the precluded subjects in order to evaluate them in relation to one other, as well as to derive policy conclusions from them. This book primarily targets academics as well as graduate and undergraduate social sciences and humanities students both in Turkey and other countries. It is also a must read for researchers and policy makers not only in Turkey but also in other developing economies and is of interest to specialists of non-governmental and non-profit organizations.
Book Synopsis Managing Elevated Risk by : Iwan J. Azis
Download or read book Managing Elevated Risk written by Iwan J. Azis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-11 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the risks and opportunities that arise in Emerging Asia given the context of a new environment in global liquidity and capital flows. It elaborates on the need to ensure financial and overall economic stability in the region through improved financial regulation and other policy measures to minimize the emergent risks. "Managing Elevated Risk: Global Liquidity, Capital Flows, and Macroprudential Policy—An Asian Perspective" also explores the range of policy options that may be deployed to address the impact of global liquidity on domestic financial and socio-economic conditions including income inequality. The book is primarily aimed at policy makers, financial market regulators and supervisory agencies to help them improve national regulatory systems and to promote harmonization of national regulations and practices in line with global standards. Scholars and researchers will also gain important information and knowledge about the overall impacts of changing global liquidity from the book.
Book Synopsis Economic and Financial Integration in South Asia by : Sanjay Sehgal
Download or read book Economic and Financial Integration in South Asia written by Sanjay Sehgal and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2020-10-25 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyses the current state and potential of economic and financial integration in South Asia, which has emerged as one of the most dynamic regions of the world. It looks at how regional convergences and cooperation would reinforce ties amongst the diverse economies of South Asia in the changing global economic landscape. Drawing on empirical research, the book looks at the degree of economic and financial integration in South Asia, which according to the World Bank includes the least integrated regions in the world, and explores the fundamental factors that drive integration amongst these countries. It offers important insights into the financial landscape of the region, as well as the dynamics of the interlinkages in the banking system, the stock markets, and the debt markets. The book examines the role of bilateral trade in augmenting regional economic ties, the opportunities for growth these will foster, and the major challenges and roadblocks for the leaders of the region. It also provides an overview of China’s role in South Asia’s financial integration and the interdependence of these economies for economic opportunities, macroeconomic and financial stability, jobs, sustainable growth, and inclusive development. Detailed and insightful, this book will be of great interest to investors and regional policymakers. It will also be of interest to researchers and students of economics, public and foreign policy, finance, international relations, and South Asia studies.
Book Synopsis The Economy as a Complex Spatial System by : Pasquale Commendatore
Download or read book The Economy as a Complex Spatial System written by Pasquale Commendatore and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-18 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is open access under a CC BY-NC 4.0 license. This collected volume represents the final outcome of the COST Action IS1104 “The EU in the new complex geography of economic systems: models, tools and policy evaluation”. Visualizing the EU as a complex and multi-layered network, the book is organized in three parts, each of them dealing with a different level of analysis: At the macro-level, Part I considers the interactions within large economic systems (regions or countries) involving trade, workers migration, and other factor movements. At the meso-level, Part II discusses interactions within specific but wide-ranging markets, with a focus on financial markets and banking systems. Lastly, at the micro-level, Part III explores the decision-making of single firms, especially in the context of location decisions.
