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Sovereign Cds And Bond Pricing Dynamics In Emerging Markets
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Book Synopsis Sovereign CDs and Bond Pricing Dynamics in Emerging Markets by : John Ammer
Download or read book Sovereign CDs and Bond Pricing Dynamics in Emerging Markets written by John Ammer and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We examine the relationships between credit default swap (CDS) premiums and bond yield spreads for nine emerging market sovereign borrowers. We find that these two measures of credit risk deviate considerably in the short run, due to factors such as liquidity and contract specifications, but we estimate a stable long-term equilibrium relationship for most countries. In particular, CDS premiums tend to move more than one-for-one with yield spreads, which we show is broadly consistent with the presence of a significant "cheapest-to-deliver" (CTD) option. In addition, we find a variety of cross-sectional evidence of a CTD option being incorporated into CDS premiums. In our analysis of the short-term dynamics, we find that CDS premiums often move ahead of the bond market. However, we also find that bond spreads lead CDS premiums for emerging market sovereigns more often than has been found for investment-grade corporate credits, consistent with the CTD option impeding CDS liquidity for our riskier set of borrowers. Furthermore, the CDS market is less likely to lead for sovereigns that have issued more bonds, suggesting that the relative liquidity of the two markets is a key determinant of where price discovery occurs"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
Book Synopsis Sovereign CDS and bond pricing dynamics in the euro-area by : Giorgia Palladini
Download or read book Sovereign CDS and bond pricing dynamics in the euro-area written by Giorgia Palladini and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This analysis tests the price discovery relationship between sovereign CDS premia and bond yield spreads on the same reference entity. The theoretical no-arbitrage relationship between the two credit spreads is confronted with daily data from six Euro-area countries over the period 2004-2011. As a first step, the supposed non stationarity of the two series is verified. Then, we examine whether the non-stationary CDS and bond spreads series are bound by a cointegration relationship. Overall the cointegration analysis confirms that the two prices should be equal to each other in equilibrium, as theory predicts. Nonetheless the theoretical value [1, -1] for the cointegrating vector is rejected, meaning that in the short run the cash and synthetic market's valuation of credit risk differ to various degrees. The VECM analysis suggests that the CDS market moves ahead of the bond market in terms of price discovery. These findings are further supported by the Granger Causality Test: for most sovereigns in the sample, past values of CDS spreads help to forecast bond yield spreads. Short-run deviations from the equilibrium persist longer than it would take for participants in one market to observe the price in the other. That is consistent with the hypothesis of imperfections in the arbitrage relationship between the two markets.
Book Synopsis Equity Prices, Credit Default Swaps, and Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets by : Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Download or read book Equity Prices, Credit Default Swaps, and Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets written by Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines equilibrium price relationships and price discovery between credit default swap (CDS), bond, and equity markets for emerging market sovereign issuers. Findings suggest that CDS and bond spreads converge despite various pressures that arise in the market. In most countries, however, we do not find any equilibrium price relationship between the bond and CDS markets and the equity markets. As for price discovery, our results are mixed. This stands in contrast to the empirical findings on corporate issuers in the United States and Europe.
Book Synopsis Equity Prices, Bond Spreads, and Credit Default Swaps in Emerging Markets by : Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Download or read book Equity Prices, Bond Spreads, and Credit Default Swaps in Emerging Markets written by Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines equilibrium price relationships and price discovery between credit defaul swap (CDS), bond, and equity markets for emerging market sovereign issuers. Findings suggest that CDS and bond spreads converge despite various pressures that arise in the market. In most countries, however, we do not find any equilibrium price relationship between the bond and CDS markets and the equity markets. As for price discovery, our results are mixed. This stands in contrast to the empirical findings on corporate issuers in the United States and Europe.
Book Synopsis Sovereign CDs and Bond Pricing Dynamics in Emerging Markets by : John Ammer
Download or read book Sovereign CDs and Bond Pricing Dynamics in Emerging Markets written by John Ammer and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We examine the relationships between credit default swap (CDS) premiums and bond yield spreads for nine emerging market sovereign borrowers. We find that these two measures of credit risk deviate considerably in the short run, due to factors such as liquidity and contract specifications, but we estimate a stable long-term equilibrium relationship for most countries. In particular, CDS premiums tend to move more than one-for-one with yield spreads, which we show is broadly consistent with the presence of a significant "cheapest-to-deliver" (CTD) option. In addition, we find a variety of cross-sectional evidence of a CTD option being incorporated into CDS premiums. In our analysis of the short-term dynamics, we find that CDS premiums often move ahead of the bond market. However, we also find that bond spreads lead CDS premiums for emerging market sovereigns more often than has been found for investment-grade corporate credits, consistent with the CTD option impeding CDS liquidity for our riskier set of borrowers. Furthermore, the CDS market is less likely to lead for sovereigns that have issued more bonds, suggesting that the relative liquidity of the two markets is a key determinant of where price discovery occurs"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Dynamics and United States Dollar-Denominated Sovereign Bond Prices in Emerging Markets by : Cho-Hoi Hui
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics and United States Dollar-Denominated Sovereign Bond Prices in Emerging Markets written by Cho-Hoi Hui and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study conducts an empirical test on dollar-denominated sovereign credit spreads in emerging markets, including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, and Turkey to examine their relationship with each country's exchange rate and the United States (US) Treasury yields. The relationship between each country's exchange rate and the pricing of each country's US-dollar denominated sovereign bonds was particularly strong after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. A two-factor pricing model is developed with closed-form solutions for the sovereign bonds. The correlated factors in the model are foreign exchange rates and US risk-free interest rates that follow a double square-root process relevant in a low interest rate environment. The numerical results and associated error analysis show that the model credit spreads can broadly track market credit spreads.
Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Default Swap and Bond Markets by : Erdem Aktug
Download or read book The Dynamics of Sovereign Credit Default Swap and Bond Markets written by Erdem Aktug and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates the dynamic relationship between sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and bond markets over the period 2001 to 2007 across 30 emerging markets. Our results suggest that the bond markets play a significant role in the price discovery process, which is in contrast with the corporate studies. We also show that the CDS markets play a more dominant role in lead-lag relationships compared to earlier studies on the sovereign credit markets.
Book Synopsis Inside the Emerging Markets Risky Spreads and Credit Default Swap - Sovereign Bonds Basis by : Vilimir Yordanov
Download or read book Inside the Emerging Markets Risky Spreads and Credit Default Swap - Sovereign Bonds Basis written by Vilimir Yordanov and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper considers a no-arbitrage setting for pricing and relative value analysis of risky sovereign bonds. The typical case of an emerging market country (EM) that has bonds outstanding both in foreign hard currency (Eurobonds) and local soft currency (treasuries) is inspected. The resulting two yield curves give rise to a credit and currency spread that need further elaboration. We discuss their proper measurement, derive and analyze the necessary no-arbitrage conditions that must hold, and extract and quantify the inherent risk premia. Then we turn attention to the CDS-Bond basis in this multi-curve environment. For EM countries the concept shows certain specifics both in theoretical background and empirical performance. The paper further focuses on analyzing these peculiarities. If the proper measurement of the basis in the standard case of only hard currency debt being issued is still problematic, the situation is much more complicated in a multi-curve setting when a further contingent claim on the sovereign risk in the face of local currency debt curve appears. We investigate the issue and provide relevant theoretical and empirical input.
Book Synopsis Credit Default Swaps by : Marti Subrahmanyam
Download or read book Credit Default Swaps written by Marti Subrahmanyam and published by Now Publishers. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit Default Swaps: A Survey is the most comprehensive review of all major research domains involving credit default swaps (CDS). CDS have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. The authors review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades and divide the survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. The eighth section discusses CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis. The authors close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.
Book Synopsis Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus by : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Download or read book Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Book Synopsis Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk by : Mr.Emre Alper
Download or read book Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk written by Mr.Emre Alper and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the pricing of sovereign credit risk over the period 2008-2010 for selected advanced economies by examining two widely-used indicators: sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and relative asset swap (RAS) spreads. Cointegration analysis suggests the existence of an imperfect market arbitrage relationship between the cash (RAS) and the derivatives (CDS) markets, with price discovery taking place in the latter. Likewise, panel regressions aimed at uncovering the fundamental drivers of the two indicators show that the CDS market, although less liquid, has provided a better signal for sovereign credit risk during the period of the recent financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets by : Mr.Balazs Csonto
Download or read book Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in Emerging Markets written by Mr.Balazs Csonto and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-10 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the relationship between global and country-specific factors and emerging market debt spreads from three different angles. First, we aim to disentangle the effect of global and country-specific developments, and find that while both country-specific and global developments are important in the long-run, global factors are main determinants of spreads in the short-run. Second, we investigate whether and how the strength of fundamentals is related to the sensitivity of spreads to global factors. Countries with stronger fundamentals tend to have lower sensitivity to changes in global risk aversion. Third, we decompose changes in spreads and analyze the behavior of explained and unexplained components over different periods. To do so, we break down fitted changes in spreads into the contribution of country-specific and global factors, as well as decompose changes in the residual into the correction of initial misalignment and an increase/decrease in misalignment. We find that changes in spreads follow periods of tightening/widening, which are well-explained by the model; and the dynamics of the components of the unexplained residual follow all the major developments that impact market sentiment. In particular, we find that in the periods of severe marketstress, such as during the intensive phase of the Eurozone debt crisis, global factors tend to drive changes in the spreads and the misalignment tends to increase in magnitude and its relative share in actual spreads.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 by : Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Download or read book Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Book Synopsis Financial Markets, SME Financing and Emerging Economies by : Giusy Chesini
Download or read book Financial Markets, SME Financing and Emerging Economies written by Giusy Chesini and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-11 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book investigates small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) access to credit, the earning quality, and the cost of debt in the European Union. It also examines two important risk measures in financial markets: the volatility index (VIX) and Credit Default Swaps (CDS). Finally, it deep dives inside one of the most important emerging markets, China, to assess monetary policy and the relationship between financial institutions and real estate firms. This work will appeal to both academics and practitioners in the areas of SME financing, financial markets and emerging economies.
Book Synopsis International Financial Markets by : Hung-Gay Fung
Download or read book International Financial Markets written by Hung-Gay Fung and published by Emerald Group Publishing Limited. This book was released on 2013-09-06 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contributes to a fresh perspective on the economic and finance research on international financial markets and also the commodity markets by examining various factors that affect information transmission and pricing relation in the spot and derivatives markets in the United States and internationally.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475589581 Total Pages :160 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, April 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Book Synopsis International Financial Markets by : Hung-Gay Fung
Download or read book International Financial Markets written by Hung-Gay Fung and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2013-09-06 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contributes to a fresh perspective on the economic and finance research on international financial markets and also the commodity markets by examining various factors that affect information transmission and pricing relation in the spot and derivatives markets in the United States and internationally.
