Simultaneous Over And Underconfidence

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Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence

Author : Erich Kirchler
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence by : Erich Kirchler

Download or read book Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence written by Erich Kirchler and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we investigate individual overconfidence within the context of an experimental asset market. Overall, 72 participants traded one risky asset on six markets of 12 participants each. Our results indicate that participants are not generally prone to overconfidence. A comparison of two different measures of overconfidence, (i) subjective confidence intervals and (ii) differences between objective accuracy and subjective certainty, lead to a different classification of behavior in our data-set. We observe well-calibration as well as over- and underconfidence.

Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence

Author : Boris Maciejovsky
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (762 download)

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Book Synopsis Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence by : Boris Maciejovsky

Download or read book Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence written by Boris Maciejovsky and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Judgment and Decision Making

Author : Peter Juslin
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1135668728
Total Pages : 355 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (356 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment and Decision Making by : Peter Juslin

Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by Peter Juslin and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2007-09-26 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research on human judgment and decision making has been strongly guided by a normative/descriptive approach, according to which human decision making is compared to the normative models provided by decision theory, statistics, and the probability calculus. A common empirical finding has been that human behavior deviates from the prescriptions by normative models--that judgments and decisions are subject to cognitive biases. It is interesting to note that Swedish research on judgment and decision making made an early departure from this dominating mainstream tradition, albeit in two different ways. The Neo-Brunswikian research highlights the relationship between the laboratory task and the adaptation to a natural environment. The process-tracing approach attempts to identify the cognitive processes before, during, and after a decision. This volume summarizes current Swedish research on judgment and decision making, covering topics, such as dynamic decision making, confidence research, the search for dominance structures and differentiation, and social decision making.

Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives

Author : David R. Mandel
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 288963034X
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (896 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives by : David R. Mandel

Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives written by David R. Mandel and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2019-09-26 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Rationality for Mortals

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199890129
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis Rationality for Mortals by : Gerd Gigerenzer

Download or read book Rationality for Mortals written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking, also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.

Ecological Rationality

Author : Peter M. Todd
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 019971794X
Total Pages : 609 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (997 download)

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Book Synopsis Ecological Rationality by : Peter M. Todd

Download or read book Ecological Rationality written by Peter M. Todd and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-04-10 with total page 609 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our vision of rationality. Yet humans and other animals typically rely on simple heuristics to solve adaptive problems, focusing on one or a few important cues and ignoring the rest, and shortcutting computation rather than striving for as much as possible. In this book, we argue that in an uncertain world, more information and computation are not always better, and we ask when, and why, less can be more. The answers to these questions constitute the idea of ecological rationality: how we are able to achieve intelligence in the world by using simple heuristics matched to the environments we face, exploiting the structures inherent in our physical, biological, social, and cultural surroundings.

Stock-market Psychology

Author : Karl Erik W‹rneryd
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9781782543039
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (43 download)

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Book Synopsis Stock-market Psychology by : Karl Erik W‹rneryd

Download or read book Stock-market Psychology written by Karl Erik W‹rneryd and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Stock-Market Psychology gives an excellent overview of the state-of-the-art literature on this subject in the fields of economics, psychology and finance. . . a comprehensive overview of the behavior of investors in the stock market. As such, this book is valuable for the classroom. . . Stock-Market Psychology provides researchers with numerous ideas for future research and readers with useful and fun tips without taking away our hopes of ever becoming rich from investing in stocks. What more is there to ask from a book?' - Joost M.E. Pennings, Journal of Economic Psychology 'George Goodman (Adam Smith) once wrote, "you can find out who you are by investing in the stock market, but it will be an expensive lesson". It is far smarter and cheaper to read Wärneryd's book instead. At a time when global stock markets are driven by emotions and passions, and are highly volatile, Chapter Six will tell you why, far better than a hundred analysts' reports.' - Shlomo Maital, TIM-Technion Institute of Management and the Samuel Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology, Israel The rationale behind how people value and trade stocks is of unparalleled interest to governments, companies and other participants in stock markets. The book focuses on the way in which investors process information and form expectations about future gains. It argues that humans fall short of the perfect information processing required by theory, and that their expectations are based on more than just future company earnings.

Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition

Author : Klaus Fiedler
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521831598
Total Pages : 504 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition by : Klaus Fiedler

Download or read book Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition written by Klaus Fiedler and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book proposes that environmental information samples are biased and cognitive processes are not.

Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making

Author : Derek J. Koehler
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470752912
Total Pages : 680 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)

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Book Synopsis Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making by : Derek J. Koehler

Download or read book Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making written by Derek J. Koehler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.

Behavioral Finance

Author : H. Kent Baker
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470769688
Total Pages : 1184 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Finance by : H. Kent Baker

Download or read book Behavioral Finance written by H. Kent Baker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 1184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A definitive guide to the growing field of behavioral finance This reliable resource provides a comprehensive view of behavioral finance and its psychological foundations, as well as its applications to finance. Comprising contributed chapters written by distinguished authors from some of the most influential firms and universities in the world, Behavioral Finance provides a synthesis of the most essential elements of this discipline, including psychological concepts and behavioral biases, the behavioral aspects of asset pricing, asset allocation, and market prices, as well as investor behavior, corporate managerial behavior, and social influences. Uses a structured approach to put behavioral finance in perspective Relies on recent research findings to provide guidance through the maze of theories and concepts Discusses the impact of sub-optimal financial decisions on the efficiency of capital markets, personal wealth, and the performance of corporations Behavioral finance has quickly become part of mainstream finance. If you need to gain a better understanding of this topic, look no further than this book.

Handbook of Self-enhancement and Self-protection

Author : Mark D. Alicke
Publisher : Guilford Press
ISBN 13 : 160918002X
Total Pages : 545 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Self-enhancement and Self-protection by : Mark D. Alicke

Download or read book Handbook of Self-enhancement and Self-protection written by Mark D. Alicke and published by Guilford Press. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first major volume dedicated to the processes by which people exaggerate their virtues, deemphasize their shortcomings, or protect themselves against threatening feedback. Leading investigators present cutting-edge work on the key role of self-enhancing and self-protective motives in social perception, cognition, judgment, and behavior. Compelling topics include the psychological benefits and risks of self-enhancement and self-protection; personality traits and contextual factors that make certain individuals more likely to hold distorted views of the self; innovative approaches to assessment and measurement; and implications for relationships, achievement, and mental health.

Social Psychology and Organizations

Author : David De Cremer
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136937897
Total Pages : 676 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (369 download)

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Book Synopsis Social Psychology and Organizations by : David De Cremer

Download or read book Social Psychology and Organizations written by David De Cremer and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-01-07 with total page 676 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is one of the first to provide an overview of recent developments in social psychological theory as it applies to organizational issues. It brings together outstanding scholars whose research touches the interfaces of social psychology , IO psychology and organizational behavior. Social psychology deals with social interactions between individuals and groups. As individuals populate, run, and confuse (!) organizations, analyzing individual behavior and interpersonal interactions is critical for understanding organizational effectiveness and success, as well as individual satisfaction and well-being. The chapters in this volume address the critical topics for current and future organizational life such as prosocial and antisocial behavior, ethics, trust, creativity, diversity, stress, conflict, power and leadership and many more.

Sampling in Judgment and Decision Making

Author : Klaus Fiedler
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1009007483
Total Pages : 573 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Sampling in Judgment and Decision Making by : Klaus Fiedler

Download or read book Sampling in Judgment and Decision Making written by Klaus Fiedler and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2023-05-31 with total page 573 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sampling approaches to judgment and decision making are distinct from traditional accounts in psychology and neuroscience. While these traditional accounts focus on limitations of the human mind as a major source of bounded rationality, the sampling approach originates in a broader cognitive-ecological perspective. It starts from the fundamental assumption that in order to understand intra-psychic cognitive processes one first has to understand the distributions of, and the biases built into, the environmental information that provides input to all cognitive processes. Both the biases and restriction, but also the assets and capacities, of the human mind often reflect, to a considerable degree, the irrational and rational features of the information environment and its manifestations in the literature, the Internet, and collective memory. Sampling approaches to judgment and decision making constitute a prime example of theory-driven research that promises to help behavioral scientists cope with the challenges of replicability and practical usefulness.

Applying Social Cognition to Consumer-Focused Strategy

Author : Frank R. Kardes
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 113560181X
Total Pages : 415 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (356 download)

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Book Synopsis Applying Social Cognition to Consumer-Focused Strategy by : Frank R. Kardes

Download or read book Applying Social Cognition to Consumer-Focused Strategy written by Frank R. Kardes and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2006-04-21 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applying Social Cognition to Consumer-Focused Strategy, a book in the Advertising and Consumer Psychology series sponsored by the Society for Consumer Psychology, focuses on the most important recent developments at the interface of social cognition and marketing, and develops integrative theoretical frameworks with rich practical implications. More specifically, the chapters offer a novel and thought-provoking perspective on consumer-focused strategy--or the effects of marketing stimuli and activities on an integrated system of consumer processes and responses. Divided into four parts, this book: *offers new perspectives on consumer information processing, selective or one sided information processing, and attribution theory; *discusses how asking questions in focus groups, surveys, and experiments leads consumers to create opinions that would not have occurred to them otherwise; *advances a new approach for modeling uncertainty and a new framework for thinking about uncertainty; *summarizes recent developments concerning the Implicit Association Test and their implications for branding strategy; *develops a new approach for analyzing the effects of intention on behavior and unplanned purchase behaviors; *discusses the devaluation effect and shows both how implementation intentions can be used to increase new product consumption and also how promotion versus prevention regulatory focus influences consumer preferences; and *focuses on consumer information processing and persuasion. The text is intended for advanced graduate students, academics, and practitioners who embrace cutting-edge paradigms and methodologies in social-cognitive consumer research.

Preference, Belief, and Similarity

Author : Amos Tversky
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262700931
Total Pages : 1046 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Preference, Belief, and Similarity by : Amos Tversky

Download or read book Preference, Belief, and Similarity written by Amos Tversky and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003-11-21 with total page 1046 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amos Tversky (1937–1996), a towering figure in cognitive and mathematical psychology, devoted his professional life to the study of similarity, judgment, and decision making. He had a unique ability to master the technicalities of normative ideals and then to intuit and demonstrate experimentally their systematic violation due to the vagaries and consequences of human information processing. He created new areas of study and helped transform disciplines as varied as economics, law, medicine, political science, philosophy, and statistics. This book collects forty of Tversky's articles, selected by him in collaboration with the editor during the last months of Tversky's life. It is divided into three sections: Similarity, Judgment, and Preferences. The Preferences section is subdivided into Probabilistic Models of Choice, Choice under Risk and Uncertainty, and Contingent Preferences. Included are several articles written with his frequent collaborator, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman.

Theory Construction in Social Personality Psychology

Author : Arie W. Kruglanski
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1135066531
Total Pages : 127 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis Theory Construction in Social Personality Psychology by : Arie W. Kruglanski

Download or read book Theory Construction in Social Personality Psychology written by Arie W. Kruglanski and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2016-02-04 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This special issue features papers that offer deeply felt, valuable perspectives on diverse aspects of theory construction in social-personality psychology. The goal is to furnish a basis for starting a discussion about the considerable challenges of theorizing, the ways of meeting those challenges, and the great rewards that successful theorizing offers to the discipline as a whole.

Finance for Normal People

Author : Meir Statman
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190626488
Total Pages : 396 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (96 download)

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Book Synopsis Finance for Normal People by : Meir Statman

Download or read book Finance for Normal People written by Meir Statman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-04-03 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance for Normal People teaches behavioral finance to people like you and me - normal people, neither rational nor irrational. We are consumers, savers, investors, and managers - corporate managers, money managers, financial advisers, and all other financial professionals. The book guides us to know our wants-including hope for riches, protection from poverty, caring for family, sincere social responsibility and high social status. It teaches financial facts and human behavior, including making cognitive and emotional shortcuts and avoiding cognitive and emotional errors such as overconfidence, hindsight, exaggerated fear, and unrealistic hope. And it guides us to banish ignorance, gain knowledge, and increase the ratio of smart to foolish behavior on our way to what we want. These lessons of behavioral finance draw on what we know about us-normal people-including our wants, cognition, and emotions. And they draw on the roles of these factors in saving and spending, portfolio construction, returns we can expect from our investments, and whether we can hope to beat the market. Meir Statman, a founder of behavioral finance, draws on his extensive research and the research of many others to build a unified structure of behavioral finance. Its foundation blocks include normal behavior, behavioral portfolio theory, behavioral life-cycle theory, behavioral asset pricing theory, and behavioral market efficiency.