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Risk Inflation And The Stock Market
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Book Synopsis Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market by : Robert S. Pindyck
Download or read book Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most explanations for the decline in share values over the past two decades have focused on the concurrent increase in inflation.This paper considers an alternative explanation: a substantial increase in the riskiness of capital investments. We show that the variance of firms' real gross marginal return on capital has increased significantly, increasing the relative riskiness of investors' returns on equity, and that this can explain a large part of the market decline. We also assess the effects of increase in the mean and variance of the inflation rate, and a decline in firms' expected return on capital.
Book Synopsis Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation by : Martin Feldstein
Download or read book Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-05-15 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation brings together fourteen papers that show the importance of the interaction between tax rules and monetary policy. Based on theoretical and empirical research, these papers emphasize the importance of including explicit specifications of the tax system in such study.
Book Synopsis Strategic Asset Allocation by : John Y. Campbell
Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.
Book Synopsis Can US Stocks Provide a Safe Haven from Interest and Inflation Risk? by : María de la O. González Pérez
Download or read book Can US Stocks Provide a Safe Haven from Interest and Inflation Risk? written by María de la O. González Pérez and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Stock Market Price of Inflation Risk and Its Variation Over Time by : Martijn Boons
Download or read book The Stock Market Price of Inflation Risk and Its Variation Over Time written by Martijn Boons and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inflation risk premium (IRP) in the U.S. stock market varies over time. We use individual stocks to estimate the IRP, because this provides us with a heterogeneous cross-section of exposures. We find that the IRP is a significant -5.5% since the 1960s, but reverses to an insignificant positive value in the recent decade. Consistent with this reversal, we find that the IRP is more negative in recessions historically, but more positive in the two latest recessions. We show that both the introduction of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) in 1997, an attractive alternative inflation hedge, and a reversal in the covariance between inflation and the real economy at the end of the 1990s contribute to this reversal. These findings are consistent with inflation as a state variable in the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM).
Book Synopsis Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets by : Mr. Zhongxia Zhang
Download or read book Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets written by Mr. Zhongxia Zhang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-20 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when monetary policy is countercyclical. Previous empirical studies mostly focus on a small group of developed countries or a few countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation relation is partially driven by monetary policy. If a country’s monetary authority conducts a more countercyclical monetary policy, the stock return-inflation relation becomes more negative. In addition, the results differ by monetary policy framework. In exchange rate anchor countries, stock markets do not respond to monetary policy cyclicality. In inflation targeting countries, stock markets react more strongly to inflation. A key contribution of this paper is to classify inflation targeters by their behaviors, and illustrate that behavior matters in shaping market perceptions: markets react to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality when central banks are able to control inflation within their target bands. In this case markets are sensitive to inflation dynamics when inflation is above the announced target bands. Finally, when monetary policy is constrained by the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), a structural break is introduced and real stock returns no longer respond to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Deep Risk written by William J. Bernstein and published by . This book was released on 2013-08 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This booklet takes portfolio design beyond the familiar "black box" mean-variance framework. Most importantly, the short-term volatility of financial assets, commonly measured as standard deviation, is a highly imperfect measure of the actual long-horizon perils faced by real-world investors subject to the vagaries of financial and military history. These risks have names--inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation--and any useful discussion of portfolio design of necessity incorporates their probabilities, consequences, and costs of mitigation ... This booklet contains ... with luck, a framework within income and all-equity portfolios. This booklet contains ... with luck, a framework within which to think more clearly about risk. Note: the entire Investing for Adults series is not for beginners.
Book Synopsis A Wealth of Common Sense by : Ben Carlson
Download or read book A Wealth of Common Sense written by Ben Carlson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-06-22 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A simple guide to a smarter strategy for the individual investor A Wealth of Common Sense sheds a refreshing light on investing, and shows you how a simplicity-based framework can lead to better investment decisions. The financial market is a complex system, but that doesn't mean it requires a complex strategy; in fact, this false premise is the driving force behind many investors' market "mistakes." Information is important, but understanding and perspective are the keys to better decision-making. This book describes the proper way to view the markets and your portfolio, and show you the simple strategies that make investing more profitable, less confusing, and less time-consuming. Without the burden of short-term performance benchmarks, individual investors have the advantage of focusing on the long view, and the freedom to construct the kind of portfolio that will serve their investment goals best. This book proves how complex strategies essentially waste these advantages, and provides an alternative game plan for those ready to simplify. Complexity is often used as a mechanism for talking investors into unnecessary purchases, when all most need is a deeper understanding of conventional options. This book explains which issues you actually should pay attention to, and which ones are simply used for an illusion of intelligence and control. Keep up with—or beat—professional money managers Exploit stock market volatility to your utmost advantage Learn where advisors and consultants fit into smart strategy Build a portfolio that makes sense for your particular situation You don't have to outsmart the market if you can simply outperform it. Cut through the confusion and noise and focus on what actually matters. A Wealth of Common Sense clears the air, and gives you the insight you need to become a smarter, more successful investor.
Book Synopsis How to Listen When Markets Speak by : Lawrence G. McDonald
Download or read book How to Listen When Markets Speak written by Lawrence G. McDonald and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2024-03-26 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A New York Times bestselling author and leading expert on market risk argues that seismic shifts in the global economy will trigger a multi-trillion-dollar migration of wealth, outlining new rules of investing for the forward-thinking. “I can’t tell you how much I learned from How to Listen When Markets Speak. The historical perspectives and insights are something every investor needs to know. Buy this book.”—Mark Cuban From Wall Street to the White House, the fantasy of an eventual “return to normal” is still alive and well, nurtured by dangerously outdated theories. But the economic world as we know it—and the rules that govern it—are over. In the coming decade, we’ll witness sustained inflation, a series of sovereign and corporate debt crises, and a thundering of capital out of financial assets into hard assets. Few are prepared. Lawrence G. McDonald, founder of the economic research platform The Bear Traps Report, got a real-world education in market risk when, as a Lehman Brothers VP, he watched the firm ignore flashing warning signs before its collapse. His analysis led him to identify twenty-one indicators for gauging the health of an economy and detecting early signals of opportunity and danger. In How to Listen When Markets Speak, McDonald unveils his unique predictive models, connecting surprising dots between past, present, and future and outlining actionable trading ideas for staying a beat ahead of the markets. Readers will learn: • How disastrous Fed policy will collide with an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape to keep U.S. inflation near 3-5% for the next decade • How growing demand for oil and gas, underinvestment in urgently needed energy infrastructure, and cozy Russia–Saudi Arabia relations will lift the base price of energy to historic levels • Why hard assets and rare minerals like lithium and cobalt will outperform growth stocks, U.S. treasuries, and overcrowded passive investment strategies—how to detect bearish and bullish trends in advance • How passive investing and the vehicles intended to democratize finance have fueled bubbles and ideological skew by large market participants, leaving millions of 401(k)s and IRAs at risk • Why America will likely lose its position as a global superpower and holder of the world’s premier reserve currency, and may be forced to slash Social Security, Medicare, and military spending Rather than merely doomsaying, How to Listen When Markets Speak equips readers to make sense of our current moment, resist reactionary narratives and baseless analysis, and preserve their wealth in turbulent times. When markets speak, it pays to listen.
Book Synopsis Time-Varying Inflation Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns by : Dominic Burkhardt
Download or read book Time-Varying Inflation Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns written by Dominic Burkhardt and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I provide empirical evidence indicating that inflation risk is time-varying and priced in the cross-section of individual stocks in the U.S. and UK equity markets. I establish that the way inflation risk is priced in equity markets is closely related to the cyclicality of inflation. I show that the market price of inflation shocks is positive (negative) in the cross-section of individual stocks when inflation is procyclical (countercyclical) and hence comoves positively (negatively) with measures of economic activity. As a consequence, risk premiums on stocks with positive/negative exposure to inflation shocks depend on whether the economy is in a pro- or countercyclical inflation regime. A zero-investment strategy that goes long low (high) inflation-beta stocks and short high (low) inflation-beta stocks when inflation is countercyclical (procyclical) yields economically large and statistically significant return premiums in both markets, even after controlling for well-known risk-factors.
Book Synopsis The Equity Risk Premium by : Bradford Cornell
Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by Bradford Cornell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1999-05-26 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Das Thema Risikoprämie für Aktien (Equity Risk Premium) wird hier zum ersten Mal verständlich erklärt. Die Risikoprämie für Aktien stellt einen Renditeausgleich dar für das erhöhte Risiko, das ein Anleger bei der Investition in Aktien eingeht, im Vergleich zu einer Investition in risikofreie Staatsanleihen. Die Risikoprämie ist zwar von der Theorie her einfach, jedoch in der Praxis ein sehr komplexes Phänomen. Für Finanzentscheidungen ist es von größter Bedeutung, daß man das Prinzip der Risikoprämie versteht und es anwenden kann. Cornell erläutert das Thema Schritt für Schritt sehr anschaulich und ohne terminologischen Ballast. Zunächst wird die Risikoprämie im Zusammenhang mit der Geschichte des Aktienmarktes betrachtet. Der Haussemarkt der 90er dient dabei als Fallstudie. Cornell zeigt, welche Rückschlüsse man durch die Analyse der Risikoprämie im historischen Verlauf für den Aktienmarkt ziehen kann, z.B. ob Aktienkurse steigen oder fallen oder ob sich der Aktienmarkt verändert. Vorausschauende Schätzungen der Risikoprämie werden anhand verschiedener konkurrierender Modelle analysiert, wobei die Vorzüge der jeweiligen Methode mitbewertet werden. 'Equity Risk Premium' ist das erste Buch, das dieses wichtige Prinzip der Risiko-Nutzen-Analyse erschöpfend behandelt. Es vermittelt einen tiefen Einblick und deckt alle Grundlagen ab, damit Investoren fundierte Finanzentscheidungen treffen können. Ein absolutes Muß für institutionelle Anleger, Geldmanager und Finanzvorstände, die auf eine fundierte Marktanalyse zurückgreifen müssen. (06/99)
Book Synopsis Measuring Market Risk by : Kevin Dowd
Download or read book Measuring Market Risk written by Kevin Dowd and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-02-28 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most up-to-date resource on market risk methodologies Financial professionals in both the front and back office require an understanding of market risk and how to manage it. Measuring Market Risk provides this understanding with an overview of the most recent innovations in Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Tail Loss (ETL) estimation. This book is filled with clear and accessible explanations of complex issues that arise in risk measuring-from parametric versus nonparametric estimation to incre-mental and component risks. Measuring Market Risk also includes accompanying software written in Matlab—allowing the reader to simulate and run the examples in the book.
Book Synopsis Inflation Uncertainty and Risk Premia by : Cynthia A. Kroll
Download or read book Inflation Uncertainty and Risk Premia written by Cynthia A. Kroll and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Inflation Uncertainty and Risk Premia by : Yoon Dokko
Download or read book Inflation Uncertainty and Risk Premia written by Yoon Dokko and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Booms, Bubbles and Busts in US Stock Markets by : David L. Western
Download or read book Booms, Bubbles and Busts in US Stock Markets written by David L. Western and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-08-12 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examining the current conditions before looking back to the events of the last century, this volume covers the Great Depression, the 1970s oil crisis, the party-for-the-rich atmosphere of the 1980's and the emergence of the new economy.
Book Synopsis Reading Minds and Markets by : Jack Ablin with
Download or read book Reading Minds and Markets written by Jack Ablin with and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2009-06-19 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Read Jack Ablin’s ‘five factor’ approach to investing and you not only will sleep better at night, you’ll be a smarter, wiser human being. Ablin takes you on his twenty-year journey toward a unified, rational approach to investing that can help you weather even the most turbulent financial storms. This book may be one of the best investments you will ever make.” --John Callaway, Senior Correspondent, WTTW, Public Television “This book is based on verifiable data trends and years of experience with a broad array of economic and market numbers. Regret over investment losses need not lead investors to disengage their brains or to be robbed again by schemes hawked as ‘new and improved.’ Reading Minds and Markets will help jump-start an honest investment dialogue that has been sidetracked by excesses of greed and fear.” --Bill Barnhart, Former Financial Editor and Columnist for the Chicago Tribune “The author has taken the complex world of investing and provided an extremely practical approach to success where others have failed miserably. His grasp of the financial markets makes him eminently qualified to develop an extremely sound and practical approach in order to protect and enhance wealth for investors.” --Edward (“Ned”) Riley, Jr., Former Chief Investment Officer for State Street Global Advisors and Chief Investment Officer, Riley Asset Management “With nearly three decades of experience, Jack Ablin’s superb intellectual thinking is reflected in Reading Minds and Markets. This is great reading for the motivated investor.” --Professor Israel Shaked, Finance and Economics Department, Boston University, School of Management You can do more to protect yourself from market risks and down markets. The secret: Understand the big picture and know when to shift money toward more promising industry groups, sectors, or asset classes. This strategy is called “global macro investing”--and, as Chief Investment Officer for Harris Private Bank, Jack Ablin has used it to deliver results for many of the world’s wealthiest families and individuals. In Reading Minds and Markets, Ablin distills his techniques into a remarkably simple, commonsense five-step plan that any investor can use. You’ll discover how to anticipate some of the more significant shifts in global markets and move investments toward areas that are more likely to grow. Equally important, you’ll learn how to overcome bad habits that inevitably lead to failure--habits all too often reinforced by the financial media. In today’s unforgiving markets, you need to make smarter high-level decisions and fewer mistakes: This book will help you do both. Why you must take a top-down view of the market--and how to do it Avoid getting caught off-guard in choppy, highly volatile markets Respond to the market’s powerful signals about relative risk Master strategies for improving return without increasing risk Discover the five factors that consistently tell you where to invest Cut through the clutter of irrelevant data: find what matters and use it Stop being your own worst enemy Overcome the #1 obstacle to structuring your best portfolio: human nature www.readingmindsandmarkets.com
