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Real Macro Economic Variables And Stock Prices
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Book Synopsis Do MacRoeconomic Variables Have an Effect on the Us Stock Market? by : Dennis Sauert
Download or read book Do MacRoeconomic Variables Have an Effect on the Us Stock Market? written by Dennis Sauert and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.
Book Synopsis Business, Economics, Financial Sciences, and Management by : Min Zhu
Download or read book Business, Economics, Financial Sciences, and Management written by Min Zhu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-02-11 with total page 860 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A series of papers on business, economics, and financial sciences, management selected from International Conference on Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management are included in this volume. Management in all business and organizational activities is the act of getting people together to accomplish desired goals and objectives using available resources efficiently and effectively. Management comprises planning, organizing, staffing, leading or directing, and controlling an organization (a group of one or more people or entities) or effort for the purpose of accomplishing a goal. Resourcing encompasses the deployment and manipulation of human resources, financial resources, technological resources and natural resources. The proceedings of BEFM2011 focuses on the various aspects of advances in Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management and provides a chance for academic and industry professionals to discuss recent progress in the area of Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management. It is hoped that the present book will be useful to experts and professors, both specialists and graduate students in the related fields.
Book Synopsis Real Macro Economic Variables and Stock Prices by : Erman Erbaykal
Download or read book Real Macro Economic Variables and Stock Prices written by Erman Erbaykal and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between reel macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Turkey under quot;Proxy hypothesisquot; developed by Fama (1981). According to Proxy hypothesis of Fama, real macroeconomic variables such as consumption expenditures, economic growth, employment, fixed investment affect stock prices via inflation. In the study, consumption expenditures, industrial production index, employment level and fixed investments are used as indicators of real economic activity and consumption price index as indicator of inflation. The long-run relationship between the variables is tested by Bound testing approach developed by Paseran et al (2001). Our findings support the validity of the Proxy Hypothesis of Fama (1981) for Turkey.
Book Synopsis Do Macroeconomic Variables have an Effect on the US Stock Market? by : Dennis Sauert
Download or read book Do Macroeconomic Variables have an Effect on the US Stock Market? written by Dennis Sauert and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.
Book Synopsis Trade, Investment and Economic Growth by : Pooja Lakhanpal
Download or read book Trade, Investment and Economic Growth written by Pooja Lakhanpal and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-05-10 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book contributes to the growing literature pertaining to empirical and policy issues in international trade, foreign capital flows and issues in finance, implications for India and emerging economies related to trade and development interface, and analysis of sector level growth and development in India. Further, the focus is on the policy aspects of these themes and their role in fostering economic development in the context of India and other emerging market economies. The discourse focuses mainly on empirical work and econometric details. The relevant issues are investigated using state of the art techniques such as gravity models, panel co-integration, generalized hyperbolic distributions, SEM, FMOLS and Probit models. In addition, detailed literature survey, discussions on data availability, issues related to statistical estimation techniques and a theoretical background, ensure that each chapter significantly contributes to the ever-growing literature on international trade and capital flows. The readers shall find an engaging dialogue on the crucial role played by policy and the trade-capital flows-growth experience of emerging economies. The book is relevant for those who are interested in contemporary issues in trade, growth and finance as well as for students of advanced econometrics who may benefit from the analytical and econometric exposition. The empirical evidences provided here could serve as ready reference for academicians, researchers and policy makers, particularly in emerging economies facing similar challenges.
Book Synopsis The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices: Conventional Versus News Models by : John Vaz
Download or read book The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices: Conventional Versus News Models written by John Vaz and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 642 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stock prices are usually analysed and explained in terms of underlying financial indicators, such as earnings per share or dividend payout ratios. Nevertheless, fluctuations in the conditions of the economy can result in changes in demand, which can impact on profits and dividends. Since macroeconomic variables affect financial indicators it follows that macroeconomic variables affect stock prices. If markets are rational and efficient, then stock prices will reflect all known information regarding macroeconomic factors that are perceived to affect stock prices. It follows that stock prices should not change significantly unless there is a surprise or news about the state of the economy (as reflected in unexpected changes in macroeconomic variables). Intuitively, this implies that models of stock price determination based on news ought to be superior to conventional models that use the levels or changes in variables. The utilisation of news in research on stock prices is very limited. Two approaches have been traditionally used to represent the news in the absence of surveys of expectations: either by assuming announcements are news such as those in event studies or by using an econometric time series approach to extract the news components from total changes in the variables, as is the case with the news model. The majority of studies involving news models have been in the foreign exchange market using news estimated econometrically-very little has been done in estimating and testing a macro news model of stock prices and certainly nothing has been done on stock prices in developed economies such as Australia. Thus this research is motivated by the significant gaps in the literature with respect to the development, estimation and testing of a news model of stock prices. Most of the studies that investigate the relations between macro variables and stock prices have been carried out using conventional approaches by estimating models that use the variables in their levels. Some of the multivariable models of stock prices arise as a result of anomalies found in implementing the capital asset pricing model. Other multivariable approaches such as the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), due to Ross (1976), suggest that macro variables are useful, but APT is silent on the appropriate macroeconomic explanatory variables. Furthermore, there have been limited attempts to examine macroeconomic variables collectively, but not with the aim of developing a macro model of stock prices. This thesis presents the results of research that uses comprehensive econometric procedures to investigate which macroeconomic variables have significant effects on Australian stock prices and whether news about such variables can enhance the performance of conventional stock price determination models. Seven macroeconomic variables are examined: interest rates, inflation, the money supply, economic activity, commodity prices, exchange rates and a foreign stock market index to account for spill-over effects. This provides a valuable contribution to the understanding of the individual effects of macroeconomic variables on stock prices and adds to the limited literature regarding the usefulness of news in models of stock price determination. The results from this research demonstrate that although news is a theoretically sound and intuitively plausible basis for improving macro models of stock prices, in practice there is no ex-ante exploitation possible by estimating news utilising econometric methods. Simply put, news cannot be predicted-this is established by using three comprehensive methods of estimating news, which is the residual of a model fitted to the time series data of a particular variable.
Book Synopsis Changes in Macroeconomic Variables and Their Impact on Stock Price Indices. A Case Study of the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) and Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) Indices by : Kudzanai Chakona
Download or read book Changes in Macroeconomic Variables and Their Impact on Stock Price Indices. A Case Study of the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) and Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) Indices written by Kudzanai Chakona and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2022-11-07 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2017 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, Birmingham City University, course: MSc Accountancy and Finance (ACCA), language: English, abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyse the changes in macroeconomic variables and evaluate the impact on a company’s stock prices, by examining the impact of changes macroeconomic variables, determining which macro-economic variables that have the least and most impact on stock prices and also suggest ways in which the impact on the macroeconomic variables on stock prices can be hedged against using agricultural futures, metal futures or a risk-free asset. The study will use five econometric models to test this impact, these include the Granger Causality test, Johansen Co-Integration test, Vector Error Model, Walt Test statistic, Multiple Regression Model. A review of a number of academic literature by notable analysis for both developed and developing markets will be provided. The FTSE share price index will be used in the study to represent the developed markets and the JSE share price index will be used in the study to represent the developing markets.
Book Synopsis Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts by : Sophia Chen
Download or read book Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts written by Sophia Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-12-23 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on U.S. Stock Prices by : Shaoyi Chen
Download or read book The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on U.S. Stock Prices written by Shaoyi Chen and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Stock Market Equilibrium and Macroeconomic Fundamentals by : Mr.Lamin Leigh
Download or read book Stock Market Equilibrium and Macroeconomic Fundamentals written by Mr.Lamin Leigh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the efficiency of the Stock Exchange of Singapore and the relationship between the stock market and the overall economy. Using a wide range of methods for testing market efficiency, the paper establishes that the Singapore stock market is both “weakly” and “semi-strongly” efficient in asset-pricing terms but not “strongly” efficient. Granger causality tests based on the efficiency test results indicate that developments in the stock market appear to be systematically related to the overall economy in Singapore and can thus serve as a leading indicator of its intertemporal behavior.
Book Synopsis The State of Monetary Economics by : Universities--National Bureau Committee for Economic Research
Download or read book The State of Monetary Economics written by Universities--National Bureau Committee for Economic Research and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Responses of the Stock Market to Macroeconomic Announcements Across Economic States by : Zuliu Hu
Download or read book Responses of the Stock Market to Macroeconomic Announcements Across Economic States written by Zuliu Hu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-05-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the stock market responsive to macroeconomic news? This paper employs the daily returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Index, the S&P 500 index, the Russell 1000 index, and the Russell 2000 index to examine stock market reactions to a broad list of macroeconomic announcements, including money supply, inflation, employment, housing starts, and trade balances, etc. Several announcements concerning real economic activity that have received little attention in previous research are shown to have a significant impact on stock prices. The paper also presents preliminary evidence for the different reaction to macroeconomic news by small cap stocks and large cap stocks.
Book Synopsis Macro-Economic Variables and Stock Prices in India by : Mubasher Hassan
Download or read book Macro-Economic Variables and Stock Prices in India written by Mubasher Hassan and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2014-10-31 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The government's conduct of macroeconomic policy plays a unique and pivotal role in managing economic stability at the national level.As macroeconomic policies that are properly crafted and implemented help overcome many constraints like information asymmetry and coordination failures amongst regulatory institutions and markets, besides; a stable macroeconomic environment enables financial intermediaries to employ savings in productive activities thereby offering handsome returns to investors. Owing to the growth and development of financial markets across emerging economies, particularly India with its domestic saving on the rise, the policy makers, financial markets professionals, research scholars and academia are faced with unprecedented challenges when it comes to understanding volatility in stock market returns, in this direction this book focuses on the influence of select macroeconomic variables on stock market returns in India and will be helpful for business and economics graduates in understanding interaction between various macroeconomic fundamentals and can also serve as first step for research scholars in the field of financial economics.
Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Real Economy by : John H. Cochrane
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Book Synopsis Stock Market Response to Unexpected Macroeconomic News by : Mahdi Sadeghi
Download or read book Stock Market Response to Unexpected Macroeconomic News written by Mahdi Sadeghi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-08-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between unexpected changes in macroeconomic variables and Australian stock returns over the period 1980-1991. The results suggest that stock returns are positively correlated with any surprise news in the current account deficit, the exchange rate and growth rate of real GDP, and negatively correlated with surprise news about the inflation rate and interest rates. Stock returns are also positively correlated with the unexpected unemployment rate and negatively correlated to revisions in the expected unemployment rate. The results furthermore suggest that market portfolios can detect the impact of common economic shocks better than the portfolios of the two main subsectors of the market.
Book Synopsis The effect of macroeconomic variables on the size, value and momentum factor in Germany by : Marwin Zimmermann
Download or read book The effect of macroeconomic variables on the size, value and momentum factor in Germany written by Marwin Zimmermann and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-11-26 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2018 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1,0, University of Passau, language: English, abstract: Today there are dozens of papers existing which investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, exchange rates, inflation, etc. and the 4 factors used in the Carhart 4-factor model. However, most of the papers select corresponding control variables a priori and might miss some macroeconomic variables which hold much information about one of the factors. Overcoming this problem constitutes the core of this paper. With a three tiered statistical procedure which comprises the use of clustering and LASSO regressions I am aiming at solving that challenge. I start with more than 300 macroeconomic control variables which proxy for all possible variables out there and select those with the highest explanatory power.
Book Synopsis Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts by : Sophia Chen
Download or read book Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts written by Sophia Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.
