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Progress In Decision Utility And Risk Theory
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Book Synopsis Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory by : Attila Chikán
Download or read book Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory written by Attila Chikán and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e.
Book Synopsis Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory by : L. Daboni
Download or read book Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory written by L. Daboni and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Second International Conference on Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory was held in Venice, June 1984. This volume presents some of the papers delivered at FUR-84. (The First International Conference, FUR-82, was held in Oslo and some of the papers presented on that occasion were published by Reidel in the volume Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications, edited by Bernt P. Stigum and Fred Wenst~p). The theory of choice under uncertainty involves a vast range of controversial issues in many fields like economics, philosophy, psychology, mathematics and statistics. The idea of discussing these problems in international conferences has been successful: two conferences have been held and others will follow. The climate of the debate has changed in the meantime, partly as a result of these conferences. It is no more only a question of attacking or defending the neo-Bernoullian assumptions, but also of proposing wider generalizations and including new elements in the analysis of the decision process. For instance Amartya Sen - comparing the two current notions of rationality, internal consistency and self-interest pursuit introduces the concept of reasoning and considers the irrationality which may result from the failure of a positive correspondence between reasoning and choice or from a limited capacity of reasoning. Rationality is also considered with respect to the controversial axiom of strong independence. John C. Harsanyi introduces the concept of practical certainty, i. e.
Book Synopsis Progress in Utility and Risk Theory by : G.M. Hagen
Download or read book Progress in Utility and Risk Theory written by G.M. Hagen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY At the First International Congress of Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo 1982 (FUR-82) it appeared to be a widespread feeling among the participants that the conference signalled something like a paradigm shift in the field. This does not necessarily mean that old truths were discarded and replaced by new ones, but rather that new theories and new empirical evidence were brought forth, compelling old theories to be critically analyzed from new angels. Some of the papers presented at FUR-82 have been published by Reidel in 1983 in a volume edited by Stigum and Wenst0p. The present volume contains com mentaries on a number of the papers presented at the conference together with broader outlines of current views on the theory. The observation that utility and risk theory now appears to be in a state of rapid change has prompted us to choose the title PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY for the book, in the belief that science always moves from poorer to more advanced paradigms or from weaker to more forceful theories. In other words, change is usually progress, even though intermediate stages in a para digm shift may be bewildering, to say the least.
Book Synopsis Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by : Mohammed Abdellaoui
Download or read book Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-29 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Prospect Theory by : Daniel Kahneman
Download or read book Prospect Theory written by Daniel Kahneman and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Experiments on Decisions under Risk: The Expected Utility Hypothesis by : P.J.H. Schoemaker
Download or read book Experiments on Decisions under Risk: The Expected Utility Hypothesis written by P.J.H. Schoemaker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this valuable book, Paul Schoemaker summarizes recent experimental and field research that he and others have undertaken regarding the descrip tive validity of expected utility theory as a model of choice under uncer tainty. His principal message is that this paradigm is too narrow in its con ception and misses some of the important elements of a descriptive model of individual choice. In particular, Schoemaker calls attention to the impor tance of individual differences, task effects, and context effects as they influence behavior. The expected utility hypothesis has come under scrutiny in recent years from a number of different quarters. This book brings together these many studies and relates them to the large body of literature on individual de cision making under risk. Although this paradigm may be appropriate for describing behavior under many conditions of uncertainty, Schoemaker presents convincing evidence that it does not do well with respect to protec tion against low-probability events. For example, he shows that the insur ance purchase decision is influenced by the way information is presented to the client, as well as by the statistical knowledge of the respondents.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory by : Silvia Bacci
Download or read book Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory written by Silvia Bacci and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-07-11 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory: Utility Theory and Causal Analysis provides the theoretical background to approach decision theory from a statistical perspective. It covers both traditional approaches, in terms of value theory and expected utility theory, and recent developments, in terms of causal inference. The book is specifically designed to appeal to students and researchers that intend to acquire a knowledge of statistical science based on decision theory. Features Covers approaches for making decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty Illustrates expected utility theory and its extensions Describes approaches to elicit the utility function Reviews classical and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference based on decision theory Discusses the role of causal analysis in statistical decision theory
Book Synopsis Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making by : Leonard C. MacLean
Download or read book Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making written by Leonard C. MacLean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).
Book Synopsis Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox by : M. Allais
Download or read book Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox written by M. Allais and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 706 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Utility theory or, value theory in general, is certainly the cornerstone of decision theory, game theory, microecon~mics, and all social and political theories which deal with public decisions. Recently the American School of utility, founded by von N eumann Morgenstern, encountered a far-going criticism by the French School of utility represented by its founder Allais. The whole basis of the theory of decisions involving risk has been shaken and put into question. Consequently, basic research in the fundamentals of utility and value theory evolved into a crisis. Like any crisis in basic research, and this one was not an exception, it was very fruitful. One may simply say: Allais versus von Neumann-Morgenstern, or the French School of utility versus the American School, became one of the battlefields of scientific development which proved to be a most creative source of new advances and new developments in all those sciences which are based on evaluation of utilities.
Book Synopsis Uncertain Decisions by : Luigi Luini
Download or read book Uncertain Decisions written by Luigi Luini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments presents advanced directions of thinking on decision theory - in particular the more recent contributions on non-expected utility theory, fuzzy decision theory and case-based theory. This work also provides theoretical insights on measures of risk aversion and on new problems for general equilibrium analysis. It analyzes how the thinking that underlies the theories described above spills over into real decisions, and how the thinking that underlies these real decisions can explain the discrepancies between theoretical approaches and actual behavior. This work elaborates on how the most recent laboratory experiments have become an important source both for evaluating the leading theory of choice and decision, and for contributing to the formation of new models regarding the subject.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by : J. Geweke
Download or read book Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by J. Geweke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As desired, the infonnation demand correspondence is single valued at equilibrium prices. Hence no planner is needed to assign infonnation allocations to individuals. Proposition 4. For any given infonnation price system p E . P (F *), almost every a E A demands a unique combined infonnation structure (although traders may be indifferent among partial infonnation sales from different information allocations, etc. ). In particular, the aggregate excess demand correspondence for net combined infonnation trades is a continuous function. Proof Uniqueness fails only if an agent can obtain the same expected utility from two or more net combined infonnation allocations. If this happens, appropriate slight perturbations of personal probability vectors destroy the equality unless the utility functions and wealth allocations were independent across states. Yet, when utilities and wealths don't depend on states in S, no infonnation to distinguish the states is desired, so that the demand for such infonnation structures must equal zero. To show the second claim, recall that if the correspondence is single valued for almost every agent, then its integral is also single valued. Finally, note that an upper hemicontinuous (by Proposition 2) correspondence which is single valued everywhere is, in fact, a continuous function. [] REFERENCES Allen, Beth (1986a). "The Demand for (Differentiated) Infonnation"; Review of Economic Studies. 53. (311-323). Allen, Beth (1986b). "General Equilibrium with Infonnation Sales"; Theory and Decision. 21. (1-33). Allen, Beth (1990). "Infonnation as an Economic Commodity"; American Economic Review. 80. (268-273).
Book Synopsis Risk, Decision and Rationality by : Bertrand Munier
Download or read book Risk, Decision and Rationality written by Bertrand Munier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 694 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Theory has considerably developed in the late 1970's and the 1980's. The evolution has been so fast and far-r2aching that it has become increasingly difficult to keep track of the new state of the art. After a decade of new contributions, there was a need for an overview' of the field. This book is intended to fill the gap. The reader will find here thirty~nine selected papers which were given at FUR-III, the third international confe rence on the Foundations and applications of Utility, Risk and decision theories, held in Aix-en-Provence in June 1986. An introductory chapter will provide an overview of the main questions raised on the subject since the 17th Century and more particularly so in the last thirty years, as well as some elementary information on the experimental and theoretical results obtained. It is thus hoped that any reader with some basic background in either Economics, Hanagement or Operations Research will be able to read profitably the thirty-nine other chapters. Psychologists, Sociologists, Social Philosophers and other specialists of the social sciences will also read this book with interest, as will high-level practitioners of decision~making and advanced students in one of the abovementioned fields. An expository survey of this volume will be found at the end of the introductory chapter, so that any of the seven parts of the book can be put by the reader in due perspective.
Book Synopsis Prospect Theory by : Peter P. Wakker
Download or read book Prospect Theory written by Peter P. Wakker and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-07-22 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.
Book Synopsis Economic and Environmental Risk and Uncertainty by : Robert Nau
Download or read book Economic and Environmental Risk and Uncertainty written by Robert Nau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 1980s and 1990s have been a period of exciting new developments in the modelling of decision-making under risk and uncertainty. Extensions of the theory of expected utility and alternative theories of `non-expected utility' have been devised to explain many puzzles and paradoxes of individual and collective choice behaviour. This volume presents some of the best recent work on the modelling of risk and uncertainty, with applications to problems in environmental policy, public health, economics and finance. Eighteen papers by distinguished economists, management scientists, and statisticians shed new light on phenomena such as the Allais and St. Petersburg paradoxes, the equity premium puzzle, the demand for insurance, the valuation of public health and safety, and environmental goods. Audience: This work will be of interest to economists, management scientists, risk and policy analysts, and others who study risky decision-making in economic and environmental contexts.
Book Synopsis Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty by : Itzhak Gilboa
Download or read book Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.
Book Synopsis Risk-Taking in International Politics by : Rose McDermott
Download or read book Risk-Taking in International Politics written by Rose McDermott and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions
Book Synopsis Decision, Probability and Utility by : Peter Gärdenfors
Download or read book Decision, Probability and Utility written by Peter Gärdenfors and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1988-04-29 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.
