Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory

Download Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401131465
Total Pages : 356 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (11 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory by : Attila Chikán

Download or read book Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory written by Attila Chikán and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e.

Prospect Theory

Download Prospect Theory PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (53 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Prospect Theory by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Prospect Theory written by Daniel Kahneman and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making

Download Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814417351
Total Pages : 941 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making by : Leonard C. MacLean

Download or read book Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making written by Leonard C. MacLean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).

Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory

Download Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400946163
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory by : L. Daboni

Download or read book Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory written by L. Daboni and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Second International Conference on Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory was held in Venice, June 1984. This volume presents some of the papers delivered at FUR-84. (The First International Conference, FUR-82, was held in Oslo and some of the papers presented on that occasion were published by Reidel in the volume Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications, edited by Bernt P. Stigum and Fred Wenst~p). The theory of choice under uncertainty involves a vast range of controversial issues in many fields like economics, philosophy, psychology, mathematics and statistics. The idea of discussing these problems in international conferences has been successful: two conferences have been held and others will follow. The climate of the debate has changed in the meantime, partly as a result of these conferences. It is no more only a question of attacking or defending the neo-Bernoullian assumptions, but also of proposing wider generalizations and including new elements in the analysis of the decision process. For instance Amartya Sen - comparing the two current notions of rationality, internal consistency and self-interest pursuit introduces the concept of reasoning and considers the irrationality which may result from the failure of a positive correspondence between reasoning and choice or from a limited capacity of reasoning. Rationality is also considered with respect to the controversial axiom of strong independence. John C. Harsanyi introduces the concept of practical certainty, i. e.

Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory

Download Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351621386
Total Pages : 292 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (516 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory by : Silvia Bacci

Download or read book Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory written by Silvia Bacci and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-07-11 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory: Utility Theory and Causal Analysis provides the theoretical background to approach decision theory from a statistical perspective. It covers both traditional approaches, in terms of value theory and expected utility theory, and recent developments, in terms of causal inference. The book is specifically designed to appeal to students and researchers that intend to acquire a knowledge of statistical science based on decision theory. Features Covers approaches for making decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty Illustrates expected utility theory and its extensions Describes approaches to elicit the utility function Reviews classical and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference based on decision theory Discusses the role of causal analysis in statistical decision theory

Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty

Download Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 052151732X
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (215 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty by : Itzhak Gilboa

Download or read book Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice

Download Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080516335
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (85 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice by : Jean-Paul Chavas

Download or read book Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2004-07-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. - Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis - Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty - Website presents application exercises in Excel

Risk-Taking in International Politics

Download Risk-Taking in International Politics PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 9780472087877
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (878 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Risk-Taking in International Politics by : Rose McDermott

Download or read book Risk-Taking in International Politics written by Rose McDermott and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Download Risk, Uncertainty and Profit PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight

Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

The Economics of Risk and Time

Download The Economics of Risk and Time PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262572248
Total Pages : 492 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (722 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis The Economics of Risk and Time by : Christian Gollier

Download or read book The Economics of Risk and Time written by Christian Gollier and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Updates and advances the theory of expected utility as applied to risk analysis and financial decision making.

Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications

Download Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401129525
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (11 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications by : Ward Edwards

Download or read book Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications written by Ward Edwards and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Conference on "Utility: Theories, Measurements, and Applications" met at the Inn at Pasatiempo in Santa Cruz, California, from June II to 15, 1989. The all-star cast of attendees are listed as authors in the Table of Contents of this book (see p. V), except for Soo Hong Chew and Amos Tversky. The purpose of the conference, and of National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8823012 that supported it, was to confront proponents of new generalized theories of utility with leading decision analysts com mitted to the implementation, in practice, of the more traditional theory that these new theories reject. That traditional model is variously iden tified in this book as expected utility or subjectively expected utility maximization (EU or SEU for short) and variously attributed to von Neumann and Morgenstern or Savage. I had feared that the conference might consist of an acrimonious debate between Olympian normative theorists uninterested in what people actually do and behavioral modelers obsessed with the cognitive illusions and uninterested in helping people to make wise decisions. I was entirely wrong. The conferees, in two dramatic straw votes at the open ing session, unanimously endorsed traditional SEU as the appropriate normative model and unanimously agreed that people don't act as that model requires. (These votes had a profound impact on my thinking; detail about them and about that impact is located in Chapter 10.

Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications

Download Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9789048183647
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (836 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications by : Bernt P. Stigum

Download or read book Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications written by Bernt P. Stigum and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-12-25 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this volume we present some o~ the papers that were delivered at FUR-82 - the First International Con~erence on Foundations o~ Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo, June 1982. The purpose o~ the con~erence was to provide a ~orum within which scientists could report on interesting applications o~ modern decision theory and exchange ideas about controversial issues in the ~oundations o~ the theory o~ choice under un certainty. With that purpose in mind we have selected a mixture of applied and theoretical papers that we hope will appeal to a wide spectrum o~ readers ~rom graduate students in social science departments and business schools to people involved in making hardheaded decisions in business and government. In an introductory article Ole Hagen gives an overview o~ various paradoxes in utility and risk theory and discusses these in the light o~ scientific methodology. He concludes the article by calling ~or joint efforts to provide decision makers with warkable theories. Kenneth Arrow takes up the same issue on a broad basis in his paper where he discusses the implications o~ behavior under uncertainty for policy. In the theoretical papers the reader will ~ind attempts at de~initive Statements of the meaning o~ old concepts and suggestions for the adoption o~ new concepts. For instance, Maurice Allais discusses four di~ferent interpretations o~ the axioms o~ probability and explains the need ~or an empirical characterization o~ the concept of chance.

Evolution and Progress in Democracies

Download Evolution and Progress in Democracies PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401715041
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (17 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Evolution and Progress in Democracies by : Johann Götschl

Download or read book Evolution and Progress in Democracies written by Johann Götschl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a ground-breaking series of articles, one of them written by a Nobel Laureate, this volume demonstrates the evolutionary dynamic and the transformation of today's democratic societies into scientific-democratic societies. It highlights the progress of modeling individual and societal evaluation by neo-Bayesian utility theory. It shows how social learning and collective opinion formation work, and how democracies cope with randomness caused by randomizers. Nonlinear `evolution equations' and serial stochastic matrices of evolutionary game theory allow us to optimally compute possible serial evolutionary solutions of societal conflicts. But in democracies progress can be defined as any positive, gradual, innovative and creative change of culturally used, transmitted and stored mentifacts (models, theories), sociofacts (customs, opinions), artifacts and technifacts, within and across generations. The most important changes are caused, besides randomness, by conflict solutions and their realizations by citizens who follow democratic laws. These laws correspond to the extended Pareto principle, a supreme, socioethical democratic rule. According to this principle, progress is any increase in the individual and collective welfare which is achieved during any evolutionary progress. Central to evolutionary modeling is the criterion of the empirical realization of computed solutions. Applied to serial conflict solutions (decisions), evolutionary trajectories are formed; they become the most influential causal attractors of the channeling of societal evolution. Democratic constitutions, legal systems etc., store all advantageous, present and past, adaptive, competitive, cooperative and collective solutions and their rules; they have been accepted by majority votes. Societal laws are codes of statutes (default or statistical rules), and they serve to optimally solve societal conflicts, in analogy to game theoretical models or to statistical decision theory. Such solutions become necessary when we face harmful or advantageous random events always lurking at the edge of societal and external chaos. The evolutionary theory of societal evolution in democracies presents a new type of stochastic theory; it is based on default rules and stresses realization. The rules represent the change of our democracies into information, science and technology-based societies; they will revolutionize social sciences, especially economics. Their methods have already found their way into neural brain physiology and research into intelligence. In this book, neural activity and the creativity of human thinking are no longer regarded as linear-deductive. Only evolutive nonlinear thinking can include multiple causal choices by many individuals and the risks of internal and external randomness; this serves the increasing welfare of all individuals and society as a whole. Evolution and Progress in Democracies is relevant for social scientists, economists, evolution theorists, statisticians, philosophers, philosophers of science, and interdisciplinary researchers.

Prospect Theory

Download Prospect Theory PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139489100
Total Pages : 519 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Prospect Theory by : Peter P. Wakker

Download or read book Prospect Theory written by Peter P. Wakker and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-07-22 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.

Decision Theory with a Human Face

Download Decision Theory with a Human Face PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107003210
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Decision Theory with a Human Face by : Richard Bradley

Download or read book Decision Theory with a Human Face written by Richard Bradley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.

Decision Space

Download Decision Space PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139430416
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis Decision Space by : Paul Weirich

Download or read book Decision Space written by Paul Weirich and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-08-27 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Decision Space: Multidimensional Utility Analysis, first published in 2001, Paul Weirich increases the power and versatility of utility analysis and in the process advances decision theory. Combining traditional and novel methods of option evaluation into one systematic method of analysis, multidimensional utility analysis is a valuable tool. It provides formulations of important decision principles, such as the principle to maximize expected utility; enriches decision theory in solving recalcitrant decision problems; and provides in particular for the cases in which an expert must make a decision for a group of people. The multiple dimensions of this analysis create a decision space broad enough to accommodate all factors affecting an option's utility. The book will be of interest to advanced students and professionals working in the subject of decision theory, as well as to economists and other social scientists.

An Introduction to Decision Theory

Download An Introduction to Decision Theory PDF Online Free

Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107151597
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!


Book Synopsis An Introduction to Decision Theory by : Martin Peterson

Download or read book An Introduction to Decision Theory written by Martin Peterson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-30 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and accessible introduction to all aspects of decision theory, now with new and updated discussions and over 140 exercises.