Predicting the Unpredictable

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Author :
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691173303
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting the Unpredictable by : Susan Elizabeth Hough

Download or read book Predicting the Unpredictable written by Susan Elizabeth Hough and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-11-08 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.

Rock Breaks Scissors

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Publisher : Little, Brown
ISBN 13 : 0316228087
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (162 download)

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Book Synopsis Rock Breaks Scissors by : William Poundstone

Download or read book Rock Breaks Scissors written by William Poundstone and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2014-06-03 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical guide to outguessing everything from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. ROCK BREAKS SCISSORS is mind-reading for real life. Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. ROCK BREAKS SCISSORS is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.

The Physics of Wall Street

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Author :
Publisher : Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
ISBN 13 : 0547317271
Total Pages : 309 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (473 download)

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Book Synopsis The Physics of Wall Street by : James Owen Weatherall

Download or read book The Physics of Wall Street written by James Owen Weatherall and published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. This book was released on 2013 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A young scholar tells the story of the physicists and mathematicians who created the models that have become the basis of modern finance and argues that these models are the "solution" to--not the source of--our current economic woes.

The Physics of Finance

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Author :
Publisher : Short Books
ISBN 13 : 9781780721392
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (213 download)

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Book Synopsis The Physics of Finance by : James Owen Weatherall

Download or read book The Physics of Finance written by James Owen Weatherall and published by Short Books. This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A book which reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance.

Predicting the Unpredictable

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781680501421
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting the Unpredictable by : Johanna Rothman

Download or read book Predicting the Unpredictable written by Johanna Rothman and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you have trouble estimating cost or schedule for your projects, you are not alone. The question is this: who wants the estimate and why? The definition of estimate is to guess. But too often, the people who want estimates want commitments. Instead of a commitment, you can apply practical and pragmatic approaches to developing estimates and then meet your commitments. You can provide your managers with the information they want and that you can live with. Learn how to use different words for your estimates and how to report an estimate that includes uncertainty. Learn who should and should not estimate. Learn how to update your estimate when you know more about your project. Regain estimation sanity. Learn practical and pragmatic ways to estimate schedule or cost for your projects.

Software Estimation Without Guessing

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Author :
Publisher : Pragmatic Bookshelf
ISBN 13 : 1680507419
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Software Estimation Without Guessing by : George Dinwiddie

Download or read book Software Estimation Without Guessing written by George Dinwiddie and published by Pragmatic Bookshelf. This book was released on 2019-12-19 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimating software development often produces more angst than value, but it doesn't have to. Identify the needs behind estimate requests and determine how to meet those needs simply and easily. Choose estimation techniques based on current needs and available information, gaining benefit while reducing cost and effort. Detect bad assumptions that might sink your project if you don't adjust your plans. Discover what to do when an estimate is wrong, how to recover, and how to use that knowledge for future planning. Learn to communicate about estimates in a healthy and productive way, maximizing advantage to the organization and minimizing damage to the people. In a world where most developers hate estimation and most managers fear disappointment with the results, there is hope for both. It requires giving up some widely held misconceptions. Let go of the notion that "an estimate is an estimate" and estimate for the particular need you, and your organization, have. Realize that estimates have a limited shelf-life, and reestimate frequently if it's important. When reality differs from your estimate, don't lament; mine that disappointment for the gold that can be the longer-term jackpot. Estimate in comparison to past experience, by modeling the work mathematically, or a hybrid of both. Learn strategies for effective decomposition of work and aspects of the work that likely affect your estimates. Hedge your bets by comparing the results of different approaches. Find out what to do when an estimate proves wrong. And they will. They're estimates, after all. You'll discover that you can use estimates to warn you of danger so you can take appropriate action in time. Learn some crucial techniques to understand and communicate with those who need to understand. Address both the technical and sociological aspects of estimation, and you'll help your organization achieve its desired goals with less drama and more benefit. What You Need: No software needed, just your past experience and concern for the outcomes.

Timefulness

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 069120263X
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis Timefulness by : Marcia Bjornerud

Download or read book Timefulness written by Marcia Bjornerud and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-02-11 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains why an awareness of Earth's temporal rhythms is critical to planetary survival and offers suggestions for how to create a more time-literate society.

Looking Forward

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Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022647500X
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (264 download)

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Book Synopsis Looking Forward by : Jamie L. Pietruska

Download or read book Looking Forward written by Jamie L. Pietruska and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2017-12-08 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction: crisis of certainty -- Cotton guesses -- The daily "probabilities"--Weather prophecies -- Economies of the future -- Promises of love and money -- Epilogue: specters of uncertainty

Do Lunch Or be Lunch

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Publisher : H B S Press
ISBN 13 : 9780875847979
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (479 download)

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Book Synopsis Do Lunch Or be Lunch by : Howard H. Stevenson

Download or read book Do Lunch Or be Lunch written by Howard H. Stevenson and published by H B S Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how to refine predictive skills, make decisions, measure risk, understand conflict, and improve human interactions

Richter's Scale

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Author :
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400884446
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Richter's Scale by : Susan Elizabeth Hough

Download or read book Richter's Scale written by Susan Elizabeth Hough and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-10-25 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By developing the scale that bears his name, Charles Richter not only invented the concept of magnitude as a measure of earthquake size, he turned himself into nothing less than a household word. He remains the only seismologist whose name anyone outside of narrow scientific circles would likely recognize. Yet few understand the Richter scale itself, and even fewer have ever understood the man. Drawing on the wealth of papers Richter left behind, as well as dozens of interviews with his family and colleagues, Susan Hough takes the reader deep into Richter's complex life story, setting it in the context of his family and interpersonal attachments, his academic career, and the history of seismology. Among his colleagues Richter was known as intensely private, passionately interested in earthquakes, and iconoclastic. He was an avid nudist, seismologists tell each other with a grin; he dabbled in poetry. He was a publicity hound, some suggest, and more famous than he deserved to be. But even his closest associates were unaware that he struggled to reconcile an intense and abiding need for artistic expression with his scientific interests, or that his apparently strained relationship with his wife was more unconventional but also stronger than they knew. Moreover, they never realized that his well-known foibles might even have been the consequence of a profound neurological disorder. In this biography, Susan Hough artfully interweaves the stories of Richter's life with the history of earthquake exploration and seismology. In doing so, she illuminates the world of earth science for the lay reader, much as Sylvia Nasar brought the world of mathematics alive in A Beautiful Mind.

Predicting Personality

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Author :
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119630967
Total Pages : 249 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Personality by : Drew D'Agostino

Download or read book Predicting Personality written by Drew D'Agostino and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-11-12 with total page 249 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ultimate playbook for using artificial intelligence to communicate effectively, build teams, and win customers Not long ago, we imagined a hyper-connected world full of trust and openness—a world where effortless communication would bring about a new understanding between people everywhere. Judging from our current environment, this vision of the future may have been overly optimistic. With infinite channels and countless voices flooding them with messages, most people have become highly skeptical and guarded by necessity. As a result, communication is much harder than ever before. Despite the unprecedented connectivity enabled by modern technology, we are far less likely to trust and to invest the time needed to build strong relationships. How can we use technology to reverse this trend? A groundbreaking new branch of artificial intelligence—Personality AI—may be the answer. Combining traditional machine learning, data analytics, and behavioral psychology, Personality AI helps professional communicators tear down walls, establish trust with their audiences, and utilize data to build meaningful relationships, strengthen empathy, and win more customers. Predicting Personality is a practical, real-world playbook for any individual or business whose success hinges on the ability to communicate effectively and build teams. Authors Drew D’Agostino and Greg Skloot—CEO and President, respectively, of Crystal, the app that tells you anyone's personality—show you how businesses can leverage Personality AI and machine learning to grow faster and communicate more effectively than was previously possible. This reader-friendly guide teaches you what Personality AI is, how it works, and demonstrates its practical applications in both life and business. This book: ● Explains how to understand personality types in various contexts, including sales, recruiting, coaching ● Provides guidelines for using personality data to learn and execute ● Explores ethics and compliance considerations surrounding the use of Personality AI ● Offers valuable insights from a leader in the business applications of Personality AI Predicting Personality: Using AI to Understand People and Win More Business is a must-have guide for C-suite executives, sales and marketing professionals, coaches, recruiters, and business owners.

Earthshaking Science

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691186871
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Earthshaking Science by : Susan Elizabeth Hough

Download or read book Earthshaking Science written by Susan Elizabeth Hough and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book to really make sense of the dizzying array of information that has emerged in recent decades about earthquakes. Susan Hough, a research seismologist in one of North America's most active earthquake zones and an expert at communicating this complex science to the public, separates fact from fiction. She fills in many of the blanks that remained after plate tectonics theory, in the 1960s, first gave us a rough idea of just what earthquakes are about. How do earthquakes start? How do they stop? Do earthquakes occur at regular intervals on faults? If not, why not? Are earthquakes predictable? How hard will the ground shake following an earthquake of a given magnitude? How does one quantify future seismic hazard? As Hough recounts in brisk, jargon-free prose, improvements in earthquake recording capability in the 1960s and 1970s set the stage for a period of rapid development in earthquake science. Although some formidable enigmas have remained, much has been learned on critical issues such as earthquake prediction, seismic hazard assessment, and ground motion prediction. This book addresses those issues. Because earthquake science is so new, it has rarely been presented outside of technical journals that are all but opaque to nonspecialists. Earthshaking Science changes all this. It tackles the issues at the forefront of modern seismology in a way most readers can understand. In it, an expert conveys not only the facts, but the passion and excitement associated with research at the frontiers of this fascinating field. Hough proves, beyond a doubt, that this passion and excitement is more accessible than one might think.

The Click Moment

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Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 110160140X
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (16 download)

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Book Synopsis The Click Moment by : Frans Johansson

Download or read book The Click Moment written by Frans Johansson and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-08-30 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the story of every great company and career, there is one defining moment when luck and skill collide. This book is about making that moment happen. According to Frans Johansson’s research, successful people and organizations show a common theme. A lucky moment occurs and they take advantage of it to change their fate. Consider how Diane von Furstenberg saw Julie Nixon Eisenhower on TV wearing a matching skirt and top, and created the timeless, elegant wrap-dress. That was a “click moment” of unexpected opportunity. Johansson uses stories from throughout history to illustrate the specific actions we can take to create more click moments, place lots of high-potential bets, open ourselves up to chance encounters, and harness the complex forces of success that follow.

Mastering the Unpredictable

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780929652122
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (521 download)

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Book Synopsis Mastering the Unpredictable by : Keith D. Swenson

Download or read book Mastering the Unpredictable written by Keith D. Swenson and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The facilitation of knowledge work or what is increasingly known as "Case Management" represents the next imperative in office automation. The desire to fully support knowledge workers within the workplace is not new. What's new is that recent advances in Information Technology now make the management of unpredictable circumstances a practical reality. There's now a groundswell of interest in a more flexible, dynamic approach to supporting knowledge work. The facilitation of knowledge work or what is increasingly known as "Case Management" represents the next imperative in office automation. The desire to fully support knowledge workers within the workplace is not new. What's new is that recent advances in Information Technology now make the management of unpredictable circumstances a practical reality. There's now a groundswell of interest in a more flexible, dynamic approach to supporting knowledge work. Here are examples of what recognized experts have have recently written on the topic: Advancing to support more knowledge work is the goal of many organizations, thus there is a new groundswell of activity around unstructured processes. - Jim Sinur, VP of Research, Gartner I think a sea change is coming in the process world. -Connie Moore, Research Vice President, Forrester The sea of change Moore refers to is about technology that is able to support knowledge workers. The work of a knowledge worker is by its nature unpredictable and can not be handled by more formalized process definition techniques. For executives and managers of knowledge workers, "Mastering the Unpredictable" will: Explain the need and why previous technological approaches don't meet the need Explain the current technology gap, and the new technology that can close the gap Lay out the options that can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of their organizations Equip them to best take advantage of this evolving trend"

Future Babble

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Publisher : McClelland & Stewart
ISBN 13 : 0771035217
Total Pages : 319 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Future Babble by : Dan Gardner

Download or read book Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and published by McClelland & Stewart. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Designed for Use

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Publisher : Pragmatic Bookshelf
ISBN 13 : 1680505262
Total Pages : 553 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Designed for Use by : Lukas Mathis

Download or read book Designed for Use written by Lukas Mathis and published by Pragmatic Bookshelf. This book was released on 2016-04-07 with total page 553 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is for designers, developers, and product managers who are charged with what sometimes seems like an impossible task: making sure products work the way your users expect them to. You'll find out how to design applications and websites that people will not only use, but will absolutely love. The second edition brings the book up to date and expands it with three completely new chapters. Interaction design - the way the apps on our phones work, the way we enter a destination into our car's GPS - is becoming more and more important. Identify and fix bad software design by making usability the cornerstone of your design process. Lukas weaves together hands-on techniques and fundamental concepts. Each technique chapter explains a specific approach you can use to make your product more user friendly, such as storyboarding, usability tests, and paper prototyping. Idea chapters are concept-based: how to write usable text, how realistic your designs should look, when to use animations. This new edition is updated and expanded with new chapters covering requirements gathering, how the design of data structures influences the user interface, and how to do design work as a team. Through copious illustrations and supporting psychological research, expert developer and user interface designer Lukas Mathis gives you a deep dive into research, design, and implementation--the essential stages in designing usable interfaces for applications and websites. Lukas inspires you to look at design in a whole new way, explaining exactly what to look for - and what to avoid - in creating products that get people excited.

Toward the Year 2018

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (48 download)

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Book Synopsis Toward the Year 2018 by :

Download or read book Toward the Year 2018 written by and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: