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Persistence And Hysteresis In Aggregate Unemployment
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Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986 by :
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986 written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications by : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Download or read book Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-06 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Why is Unemployment so High At Full Capacity? The Persistence of Unemployment, the Natural Rate, and Potential Output in the Federal Republic of Germany by : Mr.David T. Coe
Download or read book Why is Unemployment so High At Full Capacity? The Persistence of Unemployment, the Natural Rate, and Potential Output in the Federal Republic of Germany written by Mr.David T. Coe and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-10-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The empirical analysis indicates that in the Federal Republic the unemployed primarily influence the relationship between the level of real wages and productivity, rather than the growth of wages. This result suggests a distinction between an equilibrium natural rate of unemployment, which is estimated to have been 3-4 percent in the 1980s, and a quasi-equilibrium unemployment rate closer to actual rates of 7-8 percent. Corresponding to these two concepts of equilibrium unemployment, estimates are presented of alternative concepts of potential output that differ according to whether labor input is consistent with the quasi-equilibrium rate of unemployment or with the natural rate of unemployment.
Book Synopsis The Natural Rate of Unemployment by : Rod Cross
Download or read book The Natural Rate of Unemployment written by Rod Cross and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-06-22 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For 25 years, theory about the causes of, and possible solutions to, the problem of unemployment has been dominated by Phelps' and Friedman's natural rate of unemployment hypothesis. This postulates that the equilibrium rate of unemployment consistent with steady inflation is determined by structural variables: sustainable reductions in unemployment can be achieved only by measures to change underlying microeconomic structures, such as benefit and pay bargaining systems. Belief in the hypothesis has faltered since the 1980s, the hypothesis being unable to explain the dramatic upward shifts in European unemployment rates. These essays reflect upon the fundamental structures underlying the hypothesis, assess the related evidence, and look forwards, suggesting possible modifications. In contrast to the single rate postulated by the natural rate hypothesis, several of the contributors propose that there are ranges of unemployment rates consistent with steady inflation.
Book Synopsis Unemployment, Hysteresis, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis by : Rod Cross
Download or read book Unemployment, Hysteresis, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis written by Rod Cross and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1988 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: JEL Cl This study constructs a new data set on unemployment rates in Latin America and the Caribbean and then explores the determinants of unemployment. We compare different countries, finding that unemployment is influenced by the size of the rural population and that the effects of government regulations are generally weak. We also examine large, persistent increases in unemployment over time, finding that they are caused by contractions in aggregate demand. These demand contractions result from either disinflationary monetary policy or the defense of an exchange - rate peg in the face of capital flight. Our evidence supports hysteresis theories in which short - run changes in unemployment influence the natural rate.
Book Synopsis TURKISH ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ECONOMICS ICE-TEA 2018 by : Ercan Uygur
Download or read book TURKISH ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ECONOMICS ICE-TEA 2018 written by Ercan Uygur and published by Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu. This book was released on 2018-12-31 with total page 2118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Regional unemployment disparities in Germany by : Marcus Kunz
Download or read book Regional unemployment disparities in Germany written by Marcus Kunz and published by wbv Media GmbH & Company KG. This book was released on 2012-01-10 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weder empirische Daten noch die ökonomische Theorie geben klare Anhaltspunkte, wie sich regionale Disparitäten entwickeln und welche politischen Maßnahmen angebracht sind, um diese zu reduzieren. Dies gilt insbesondere für Deutschland, wo die Wiedervereinigung zwischen West- und Ostdeutschland im Jahr 1990 die regionalen Arbeitslosigkeitsunterschiede deutlich verstärkt hat. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt Marcus Kunz drei zentrale Fragen: 1. Zeigen Arbeitslosenquoten in den Kreisen und Regionen Deutschlands regionale Konvergenz oder Divergenz? 2. Wie erfolgt die Anpassung von Kreisen und Regionen nach einem regionalen Arbeitsmarktschock? 3. Welche Faktoren sind für die regionalen Arbeitslosigkeitsunterschiede in Westdeutschland verantwortlich? Im Gegensatz zu anderen Studien über regionale Arbeitslosenquoten in Deutschland, die sich ausschließlich auf größere Regionen konzentrieren, zeichnet die Studie von Kunz ein detaillierteres empirisches Bild, da der Fokus auf der Entwicklung der Kreisebene liegt, wo die Unterschiede besonders ausgeprägt sind. Publikationssprache: Englisch
Book Synopsis The Causes and Consequences of Long-term Unemployment in Europe by : Stephen Machin
Download or read book The Causes and Consequences of Long-term Unemployment in Europe written by Stephen Machin and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Economic Complexity: Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and Nonlinearity by : William A. Barnett
Download or read book Economic Complexity: Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and Nonlinearity written by William A. Barnett and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1989-07-28 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contents of this volume comprise the proceedings of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics conference held in 1987 at the IC^T2 (Innovation, Creativity, and Capital) Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. The essays present fundamental new research on the analysis of complicated outcomes in relatively simple macroeconomic models. The book covers econometric modelling and time series analysis techniques in five parts. Part I focuses on sunspot equilibria, the study of uncertainty generated by nonstochastic economic models. Part II examines the more traditional examples of deterministic chaos: bubbles, instability, and hyperinflation. Part III contains the most current literature dealing with empirical tests for chaos and strange attractors. Part IV deals with chaos and informational complexity. Part V, Nonlinear Econometric Modelling, includes tests for and applications of nonlinearity.
Book Synopsis Persistence of Unemployment by : Stephen R. G. Jones
Download or read book Persistence of Unemployment written by Stephen R. G. Jones and published by McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP. This book was released on 1995 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Persistence of Unemployment Stephen Jones presents a comprehensive assessment of persistent unemployment, specifically hysteresis, in Canadian labour markets.
Book Synopsis Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations by : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Book Synopsis Globalization and Unemployment by : Helmut M. Wagner
Download or read book Globalization and Unemployment written by Helmut M. Wagner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Globalization and unemployment are two phenomena which are amongst the most widely discussed subjects in the economic debate today. Often, globalization is regarded as being responsible for the increase in unemployment, particularly in unskilled labor. This book deals with the correlation between globalization and unemployment under various aspects: historical aspects of globalization, empirical trends and theoretical explanations of unemployment, effects of globalization in general and of European Monetary Union in particular on umemployment, labor market policy in a global economy, the impact of fiscal policy on unemployment in a global economy, as well as the effects of globalization on inflation and national stabilization policy.
Book Synopsis The Wage Curve by : David G. Blanchflower
Download or read book The Wage Curve written by David G. Blanchflower and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Wage Curve casts doubt on some of the most important ideas in macroeconomics, labor economics, and regional economics. According to macroeconomic orthodoxy, there is a relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of wages. According to orthodoxy in labor economics and regional economics an area's wage is positively related to the amount of joblessness in the area. The Wage Curve suggests that both these beliefs are incorrect. Blanchflower and Oswald argue that the stable relationship is a downward-sloping convex curve linking local unemployment and the level of pay. Their study, one of the most intensive in the history of social science, is based on random samples that provide computerized information on nearly four million people from sixteen countries. Throughout, the authors systematically present evidence and possible explanations for their empirical law of economics.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Causes of Unemployment: Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations / by : Wolfgang Filc
Download or read book Macroeconomic Causes of Unemployment: Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations / written by Wolfgang Filc and published by Duncker & Humblot. This book was released on 2015-03-03 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This conference volume deals with one of the most severe economic, social and political problems major European economies face since the early nineties, the problem of lasting high unemployment. Contrary to the current German discussion, solely concentrating on microeconomic explanations and therapy recommendations, this volume presents papers based on various macro-economic points of view, showing different ways out of the employment crisis. Apart from renowned German economists, some well-known international academics participated in the 1998 Berlin symposium, to learn from experience in other countries.The first chapter contains the main standard textbook models and paradigms explaining lasting high unemployment. The question in the second chapter is if it is possible to fight unemployment with the help of macro policy on a purely national basis in the presence of global markets. The third chapter indicates possible effects of misalignments in financial markets on economic growth and employment. The contributions of the fourth chapter present experiences of other countries, which have succeeded in recent years in lowering their unemployment rates. The question at issue is, if these concepts can be transferred to Germany. The topics of the concluding chapter are practical macroeconomic starting points for sustainable employment growth in Europe. The methods contradict supply side arguments for the stabilisation of employment predominant in the German discussion. Attention is focused on relations between the role of monetary and fiscal policy in close conjunction with wage policy. Furthermore it is made evident that in global markets a theoretical macroeconomic concept as a base for sustainable employment is not very promising without enhanced international co-operation. InhaltsverzeichnisInhalt: W. Franz, Macroeconomics and Joblessness: An Introductory Statement - R. Richter, Warum Arbeitslosigkeit? Antworten von Wirtschaftstheoretikern seit Keynes (1936) - J. Priewe, Klassische und keynesianische Arbeitslosigkeit: eine Kritik hybrider Typologien - H.-J. Heinemann, Nationale Beschäftigungspolitik bei globalisierten Märkten? - P. Davidson, Global Macro Policies for Reducing Persistent High Unemployment Rates in OECD Countries - H. Klodt, International Direct Investment: Export of Headquarter Services or Export of Jobs? - A. Juchems / W. Leibfritz, Monetary Conditions and Fiscal Policy. A Comparison over Various Business Cycles and Different Phases of the Business Cycle - P. Winker, Financing Constraints, Output and Employment. Lessons from Theory and Empirical Evidence on the Micro and Macro Level - M. Frömmel / L. Menkhoff, The Informational Efficiency of Financial Markets and Macroeconomic Equilibrium - L. Funk, Labour Market Dynamics in Western Europe and the USA - M. Heise / M. Moersch, Micro and Macro Determinants of Unemployment. A Comparison of Trends in the United States and Germany - A. Heise, Unemployment in Germany and Britain. A Question of Micro-Rigidities or Macro-Obstruction? - D. Hum / W. Simpson / N. Cameron, Reducing Unemployment in an Era of Low Inflationary Expectations to Regain High Employment - A. F. Ott, Effects of a Change in Policy Rules on the Growth of the Economy. Temporary versus Permanent Effects - L. Groot / R. Schettkat, Does Structure jMatter? The Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth - E. Nowotny, The Role of Macroeconomic Policy in Overcoming Slow Economic Growth. International Comparisons and Policy Perspectives - C.-L. Holtfrerich, Economic Policy Targeting, Policy Mix and (Un-)Employment - H.-P. Spahn, Central Bankers, Games and Markets. A Critical Assessment of the Microeconomic Optimization Approach in the Theory of Macroeconomic Stabilization - H.-J. Krupp / K. Cabos, The Impact of Monetary Policy on Employment - G. A. Horn, Zur Koordination von Geld- und Lohnpolitik. Eine empirische Analyse für die USA und Deutschland
Book Synopsis Employment and Unemployment in Mexico's Labor Force by : Susan Fleck
Download or read book Employment and Unemployment in Mexico's Labor Force written by Susan Fleck and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
