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On The Science Of Uncertainty
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Book Synopsis Probability and Statistics by : Michael J. Evans
Download or read book Probability and Statistics written by Michael J. Evans and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 2004 with total page 704 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlike traditional introductory math/stat textbooks, Probability and Statistics: The Science of Uncertainty brings a modern flavor based on incorporating the computer to the course and an integrated approach to inference. From the start the book integrates simulations into its theoretical coverage, and emphasizes the use of computer-powered computation throughout.* Math and science majors with just one year of calculus can use this text and experience a refreshing blend of applications and theory that goes beyond merely mastering the technicalities. They'll get a thorough grounding in probability theory, and go beyond that to the theory of statistical inference and its applications. An integrated approach to inference is presented that includes the frequency approach as well as Bayesian methodology. Bayesian inference is developed as a logical extension of likelihood methods. A separate chapter is devoted to the important topic of model checking and this is applied in the context of the standard applied statistical techniques. Examples of data analyses using real-world data are presented throughout the text. A final chapter introduces a number of the most important stochastic process models using elementary methods. *Note: An appendix in the book contains Minitab code for more involved computations. The code can be used by students as templates for their own calculations. If a software package like Minitab is used with the course then no programming is required by the students.
Book Synopsis Probability and Statistics by : John Tabak
Download or read book Probability and Statistics written by John Tabak and published by Infobase Publishing. This book was released on 2014-05-14 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents a survey of the history and evolution of the branch of mathematics that focuses on probability and statistics, including useful applications and notable mathematicians in this area.
Download or read book The Blind Spot written by William Byers and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-03-28 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why absolute certainty is impossible in science In today's unpredictable and chaotic world, we look to science to provide certainty and answers—and often blame it when things go wrong. The Blind Spot reveals why our faith in scientific certainty is a dangerous illusion, and how only by embracing science's inherent ambiguities and paradoxes can we truly appreciate its beauty and harness its potential. Crackling with insights into our most perplexing contemporary dilemmas, from climate change to the global financial meltdown, this book challenges our most sacredly held beliefs about science, technology, and progress. At the same time, it shows how the secret to better science can be found where we least expect it—in the uncertain, the ambiguous, and the inevitably unpredictable. William Byers explains why the subjective element in scientific inquiry is in fact what makes it so dynamic, and deftly balances the need for certainty and rigor in science with the equally important need for creativity, freedom, and downright wonder. Drawing on an array of fascinating examples—from Wall Street's overreliance on algorithms to provide certainty in uncertain markets, to undecidable problems in mathematics and computer science, to Georg Cantor's paradoxical but true assertion about infinity—Byers demonstrates how we can and must learn from the existence of blind spots in our scientific and mathematical understanding. The Blind Spot offers an entirely new way of thinking about science, one that highlights its strengths and limitations, its unrealized promise, and, above all, its unavoidable ambiguity. It also points to a more sophisticated approach to the most intractable problems of our time.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by David Lindley and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2008-02-12 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gripping, entertaining, and vividly-told narrative of a radical discovery that sent shockwaves through the scientific community and forever changed the way we understand the world. Werner Heisenberg’s “uncertainty principle” challenged centuries of scientific understanding, placed him in direct opposition to Albert Einstein, and put Niels Bohr in the middle of one of the most heated debates in scientific history. Heisenberg’s theorem stated that there were physical limits to what we could know about sub-atomic particles; this “uncertainty” would have shocking implications. In a riveting and lively account, David Lindley captures this critical episode and explains one of the most important scientific discoveries in history, which has since transcended the boundaries of science and influenced everything from literary theory to television.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Kostas Kampourakis and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anti-evolutionists, climate denialists, and anti-vaxxers, among others, question some of the best-established scientific findings by referring to the uncertainties in these areas of research. Uncertainty: How It Makes Science Advance shows that uncertainty is an inherent feature of science that makes it advance by motivating further research.
Book Synopsis Probability: The Science of Uncertainty by : Michael A. Bean
Download or read book Probability: The Science of Uncertainty written by Michael A. Bean and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 2009 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covers the basic probability of distributions with an emphasis on applications from the areas of investments, insurance, and engineering. This book is suitable as a text for senior undergraduate and beginning graduate students in mathematics, statistics, actuarial science, finance, or engineering.
Book Synopsis Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World by : Henry N. Pollack
Download or read book Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World written by Henry N. Pollack and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-06-23 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the world warming due to the Greenhouse Effect? Can nuclear weapon arsenals be relied upon without periodic testing? Is the world running out of oil? What action should be taken against an outbreak of foot-and-mouth or BSE? Why can't scientists provide certain answers to these and many other questions? The uncertainty of science is puzzling. It arises when scientists have more than one answer to a problem or disagree amongst themselves. In this engaging book, Henry Pollack guides the reader through the maze of contradiction and uncertainty, acquainting them with the ways that uncertainty arises in science, how scientists accommodate and make use of uncertainty, and how in the face of uncertainty they reach their conclusions. Taking examples from recent science headlines and every day life, Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World enables the reader to evaluate uncertainty from their own perspectives, and find out more about how science actually works.
Book Synopsis The Cunning of Uncertainty by : Helga Nowotny
Download or read book The Cunning of Uncertainty written by Helga Nowotny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-11-19 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is interwoven into human existence. It is a powerful incentive in the search for knowledge and an inherent component of scientific research. We have developed many ways of coping with uncertainty. We make promises, manage risks and make predictions to try to clear the mists and predict ahead. But the future is inherently uncertain - and the mist that shrouds our path an inherent part of our journey. The burning question is whether our societies can face up to uncertainty, learn to embrace it and whether we can open up to a constantly evolving future. In this new book, Helga Nowotny shows how research can thrive at the cusp of uncertainty. Science, she argues, can eventually transform uncertainty into certainty, but into certainty which remains always provisional. Uncertainty is never completely static. It is constantly evolving. It encompasses geological time scales and, at the level of human experience, split-second changes as cells divide. Life and death decisions are taken in the blink of the eye, while human interactions with the natural environment may reveal their impact over millennia. Uncertainty is cunning. It appears at unexpected moments, it shuns the straight line, takes the oblique route and sometimes the unexpected short-cut. As we acknowledge the cunning of uncertainty, its threats retreat. We accept that any scientific inquiry must produce results that are provisional and uncertain. This message is vital for politicians and policy-makers: do not be tempted by small, short-term, controllable gains to the exclusion of uncertain, high-gain opportunities. Wide-ranging in its use of examples and enriched by the author’s experience as President of the European Research Council, one of the world’s leading funding organisations for fundamental research. The Cunning of Uncertainty is a must-read for students and scholars of all disciplines, politicians, policy-makers and anyone concerned with the fundamental role of knowledge and science in our societies today.
Book Synopsis At the Edge of Uncertainty by : Michael Brooks
Download or read book At the Edge of Uncertainty written by Michael Brooks and published by Abrams. This book was released on 2015-02-10 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Engaging . . . touches on advanced computing, essential differences between men and women, the power of the will to live, mysteries of the cosmos and more.” —The Washington Post The atom. The Big Bang. DNA. Natural selection. All are ideas that revolutionized science—and all were dismissed out of hand when they first appeared. The surprises haven’t stopped in recent years, and in At the Edge of Uncertainty, bestselling author Michael Brooks investigates the new wave of radical insights that are shaping the future of scientific discovery. Brooks takes us to the extreme frontiers of what we understand about the world. He journeys from the observations that might rewrite our story of how the cosmos came to be, through the novel biology behind our will to live, and on to the physiological root of consciousness. Along the way, he examines the gender imbalance in clinical trials, explores how merging humans with other species might provide a solution to the shortage of organ donors, and finds out whether the universe really is like a computer or if the flow of time is a mere illusion. “Absorbing . . . scintillating . . . the edgy edge of scientific investigation presented with verve.” —Kirkus Reviews “Mind-bending . . . Brooks handily works his way through these thorny problems, highlighting current research and researchers along the way.” —Publishers Weekly (starred review)
Book Synopsis Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain by : Paul W. Glimcher
Download or read book Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain written by Paul W. Glimcher and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004-09-17 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this provocative book, Paul Glimcher argues that economic theory may provide an alternative to the classical Cartesian model of the brain and behavior. Glimcher argues that Cartesian dualism operates from the false premise that the reflex is able to describe behavior in the real world that animals inhabit. A mathematically rich cognitive theory, he claims, could solve the most difficult problems that any environment could present, eliminating the need for dualism by eliminating the need for a reflex theory. Such a mathematically rigorous description of the neural processes that connect sensation and action, he explains, will have its roots in microeconomic theory. Economic theory allows physiologists to define both the optimal course of action that an animal might select and a mathematical route by which that optimal solution can be derived. Glimcher outlines what an economics-based cognitive model might look like and how one would begin to test it empirically. Along the way, he presents a fascinating history of neuroscience. He also discusses related questions about determinism, free will, and the stochastic nature of complex behavior.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy by : S.O. Funtowicz
Download or read book Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy written by S.O. Funtowicz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains the notational system NUSAP (Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment, Pedigree) and applies it to several examples from the environmental sciences. The authors are now making further extensions of NUSAP, including an algorithm for the propagation of quality-grades through models used in risk and safety studies. They are also developing the concept of `Post-normal Science', in which quality assurance of information requires the participation of `extended peer-communities' lying outside the traditional expertise.
Book Synopsis Communicating Uncertainty by : Sharon M. Friedman
Download or read book Communicating Uncertainty written by Sharon M. Friedman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-10-12 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exploring the interactions that swirl around scientific uncertainty and its coverage by the mass media, this volume breaks new ground by looking at these issues from three different perspectives: that of communication scholars who have studied uncertainty in a number of ways; that of science journalists who have covered these issues; and that of scientists who have been actively involved in researching uncertain science and talking to reporters about it. In particular, Communicating Uncertainty examines how well the mass media convey to the public the complexities, ambiguities, and controversies that are part of scientific uncertainty. In addition to its new approach to scientific uncertainty and mass media interactions, this book distinguishes itself in the quality of work it assembles by some of the best known science communication scholars in the world. This volume continues the exploration of interactions between scientists and journalists that the three coeditors first documented in their highly successful volume, Scientists and Journalists: Reporting Science as News, which was used for many years as a text in science journalism courses around the world.
Book Synopsis Experts in Uncertainty by : Roger M. Cooke
Download or read book Experts in Uncertainty written by Roger M. Cooke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1991-10-24 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science by : Ryan G. McClarren
Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science written by Ryan G. McClarren and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-23 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook teaches the essential background and skills for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in a computational simulation, and for predicting the behavior of a system under those uncertainties. It addresses a critical knowledge gap in the widespread adoption of simulation in high-consequence decision-making throughout the engineering and physical sciences. Constructing sophisticated techniques for prediction from basic building blocks, the book first reviews the fundamentals that underpin later topics of the book including probability, sampling, and Bayesian statistics. Part II focuses on applying Local Sensitivity Analysis to apportion uncertainty in the model outputs to sources of uncertainty in its inputs. Part III demonstrates techniques for quantifying the impact of parametric uncertainties on a problem, specifically how input uncertainties affect outputs. The final section covers techniques for applying uncertainty quantification to make predictions under uncertainty, including treatment of epistemic uncertainties. It presents the theory and practice of predicting the behavior of a system based on the aggregation of data from simulation, theory, and experiment. The text focuses on simulations based on the solution of systems of partial differential equations and includes in-depth coverage of Monte Carlo methods, basic design of computer experiments, as well as regularized statistical techniques. Code references, in python, appear throughout the text and online as executable code, enabling readers to perform the analysis under discussion. Worked examples from realistic, model problems help readers understand the mechanics of applying the methods. Each chapter ends with several assignable problems. Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science fills the growing need for a classroom text for senior undergraduate and early-career graduate students in the engineering and physical sciences and supports independent study by researchers and professionals who must include uncertainty quantification and predictive science in the simulations they develop and/or perform.
Book Synopsis Re-Thinking Science by : Helga Nowotny
Download or read book Re-Thinking Science written by Helga Nowotny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-04-24 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Re-Thinking Science presents an account of the dynamic relationship between society and science. Despite the mounting evidence of a much closer, interactive relationship between society and science, current debate still seems to turn on the need to maintain a 'line' to demarcate them. The view persists that there is a one-way communication flow from science to society - with scant attention given to the ways in which society communicates with science. The authors argue that changes in society now make such communications both more likely and more numerous, and that this is transforming science not only in its research practices and the institutions that support it but also deep in its epistemological core. To explain these changes, Nowotny, Scott and Gibbons have developed an open, dynamic framework for re-thinking science. The authors conclude that the line which formerly demarcated society from science is regularly transgressed and that the resulting closer interaction of science and society signals the emergence of a new kind of science: contextualized or context-sensitive science. The co-evolution between society and science requires a more or less complete re-thinking of the basis on which a new social contract between science and society might be constructed. In their discussion the authors present some of the elements that would comprise this new social contract.
Download or read book Uncertainty Theory written by Baoding Liu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-09-14 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertainty theory. The purpose is to equip the readers with an axiomatic approach to deal with uncertainty. For this new edition the entire text has been totally rewritten. The chapters on chance theory and uncertainty theory are completely new. Mathematicians, researchers, engineers, designers, and students will find this work a stimulating and useful reference.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by David C. Cassidy and published by W. H. Freeman. This book was released on 1993-08-15 with total page 688 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Werner Heisenberg's genius and his place at the forefront of modern physics are unquestioned. His decision to remain in Germany throughout the Third Reich and his role in Hitler's atomic bomb project are still topics of heated debate. UNCERTAINTY is David Cassidy's compelling portrait of this brilliant, ambitious, and controversial scientist. It is the definitive Heisenberg biography, as well as a striking evocation of the development of quantum physics, the rise of Nazism, and the dawn of the atomic age.
