On The Predictability Of Sea Ice

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Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

Author : Andrew Robertson
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 012811715X
Total Pages : 588 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction by : Andrew Robertson

Download or read book Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting

Author : Tom Carrieres
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108279546
Total Pages : 263 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (82 download)

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Book Synopsis Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting by : Tom Carrieres

Download or read book Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting written by Tom Carrieres and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-05 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an advanced introduction to the science behind automated prediction systems, focusing on sea ice analysis and forecasting. Starting from basic principles, fundamental concepts in sea ice physics, remote sensing, numerical methods, and statistics are explained at an accessible level. Existing operational automated prediction systems are described and their impacts on information providers and end clients are discussed. The book also provides insight into the likely future development of sea ice services and how they will evolve from mainly manual processes to increasing automation, with a consequent increase in the diversity and information content of new ice products. With contributions from world-leading experts in the fields of sea ice remote sensing, data assimilation, numerical modelling, and verification and operational prediction, this comprehensive reference is ideal for students, sea ice analysts, and researchers, as well as decision-makers and professionals working in the ice service industry.

On the Predictability of Sea Ice

Author : Edward Blanchard- Wrigglesworth
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 121 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (881 download)

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Book Synopsis On the Predictability of Sea Ice by : Edward Blanchard- Wrigglesworth

Download or read book On the Predictability of Sea Ice written by Edward Blanchard- Wrigglesworth and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the persistence and predictability of sea ice in numerical models and observations. We first use the 3rd generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) General Circulation Model (GCM) to investigate the inherent persistence of sea-ice area and thickness. We find that sea-ice area anomalies have a seasonal decay timescale, exhibiting an initial decorrelation similar to a first order auto-regressive (AR1, or red noise) process. Beyond this initial loss of memory, there is a re-emergence of memory at certain times of the year. There are two distinct modes of re-emergence in the model, one driven by the seasonal coupling of area and thickness anomalies in the summer, the other by the persistence of upper ocean temperature anomalies that originate from ice anomalies in the melt season and then influence ice anomalies in the growth season. Comparison with satellite observations where available indicate these processes appear in nature. We then use the 4th generation CCSM (CCSM4) to investigate the partition of Arctic sea-ice predictability into its initial-value and boundary forced components under present day forcing conditions. We find that initial-value predictability lasts for 1-2 years for sea-ice area, and 3-4 years for sea-ice volume. Forced predictability arises after just 4-5 years for both area and volume. Initial-value predictability of sea-ice area during the summer hinges on the coupling between thickness and area anomalies during that season. We find that the loss of initial-value predictability with time is not uniform --- there is a rapid loss of predictability of sea-ice volume during the late spring early summer associated with snow melt and albedo feedbacks. At the same time, loss of predictability is not uniform across different regions. Given the usefulness of ice thickness as a predictor of summer sea-ice area, we obtain a hindcast of September sea-ice area initializing the GCM on May 1with an estimate of observed sea-ice thickness anomalies. We run the GCM in a slab-ocean model configuration and obtain predictability that is lower than expected from the perfect model fully coupled GCM. We next make use of models submitted to the CMIP5 archive to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of ice thickness anomalies, together with the CCSM3, CCSM4 and two forced ice-ocean models, PIOMAS and CCSM4 in ice-ocean mode. We find that there is a wide spread in the characteristics of ice thickness anomalies across models, partially explained by biases in mean thickness. Additionally, forced ice-ocean models show reduced ice-thickness variability. These results have significant implications for the initialization of fully-coupled GCMs from forced GCM output. Finally we investigate the initial-value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the CCSM3. We find that Antarctic sea-ice anomaly persistence is comparable to that of Arctic sea-ice anomalies. High values of initial-value predictability of sea-ice area can last for up to two years, and tend to advect eastward in time. We also find memory re-emergence that is driven by upper ocean heat anomalies from the melt to the growth season. Unlike the Arctic, we do not find evidence for an ice-thickness driven mechanism of memory re-emergence

Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309265266
Total Pages : 93 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice by : National Research Council

Download or read book Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-03 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice. Understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions. Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer sea ice extent in September 2012. Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.

Arctic Sea Ice Predictability and Prediction

Author : Chao-Yuan Yang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 157 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (113 download)

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Book Synopsis Arctic Sea Ice Predictability and Prediction by : Chao-Yuan Yang

Download or read book Arctic Sea Ice Predictability and Prediction written by Chao-Yuan Yang and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309388805
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Next Generation Earth System Prediction by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

The Jackknife, the Bootstrap, and Other Resampling Plans

Author : Bradley Efron
Publisher : SIAM
ISBN 13 : 9781611970319
Total Pages : 99 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (73 download)

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Book Synopsis The Jackknife, the Bootstrap, and Other Resampling Plans by : Bradley Efron

Download or read book The Jackknife, the Bootstrap, and Other Resampling Plans written by Bradley Efron and published by SIAM. This book was released on 1982-01-01 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The jackknife and the bootstrap are nonparametric methods for assessing the errors in a statistical estimation problem. They provide several advantages over the traditional parametric approach: the methods are easy to describe and they apply to arbitrarily complicated situations; distribution assumptions, such as normality, are never made. This monograph connects the jackknife, the bootstrap, and many other related ideas such as cross-validation, random subsampling, and balanced repeated replications into a unified exposition. The theoretical development is at an easy mathematical level and is supplemented by a large number of numerical examples. The methods described in this monograph form a useful set of tools for the applied statistician. They are particularly useful in problem areas where complicated data structures are common, for example, in censoring, missing data, and highly multivariate situations.

Sea Ice

Author : David N. Thomas
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118778383
Total Pages : 666 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis Sea Ice by : David N. Thomas

Download or read book Sea Ice written by David N. Thomas and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-03-06 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past 20 years the study of the frozen Arctic and Southern Oceans and sub-arctic seas has progressed at a remarkable pace. This third edition of Sea Ice gives insight into the very latest understanding of the how sea ice is formed, how we measure (and model) its extent, the biology that lives within and associated with sea ice and the effect of climate change on its distribution. How sea ice influences the oceanography of underlying waters and the influences that sea ice has on humans living in Arctic regions are also discussed. Featuring twelve new chapters, this edition follows two previous editions (2001 and 2010), and the need for this latest update exhibits just how rapidly the science of sea ice is developing. The 27 chapters are written by a team of more than 50 of the worlds’ leading experts in their fields. These combine to make the book the most comprehensive introduction to the physics, chemistry, biology and geology of sea ice that there is. This third edition of Sea Ice will be a key resource for all policy makers, researchers and students who work with the frozen oceans and seas.

The Nordic Seas

Author : Burton G. Hurdle
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461580358
Total Pages : 788 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (615 download)

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Book Synopsis The Nordic Seas by : Burton G. Hurdle

Download or read book The Nordic Seas written by Burton G. Hurdle and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 788 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " ... as soon as one has traversed the greater part of the wild sea, one comes upon such a huge quantity of ice that nowhere in the whole world has the like been known." "This ice is of a wonderful nature. It lies at times quite still, as one would expect, with openings or large fjords in it; but sometimes its movement is so strong and rapid as to equal that of a ship running before the wind, and it drifts against the wind as often as with it." Kongespeilet - 1250 A.D. ("The Mirror of Kings") Modern societies require increasing amounts influence on the water mass and on the resulting of scientific information about the environment total environment of the region; therefore, cer tain of its characteristics will necessarily be in whieh they live and work. For the seas this information must describe the air above the sea, included.

Initializing and Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a Global Climate Model

Author : Steffen Tietsche
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 107 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (839 download)

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Book Synopsis Initializing and Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a Global Climate Model by : Steffen Tietsche

Download or read book Initializing and Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a Global Climate Model written by Steffen Tietsche and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Alaskan Beaufort Sea

Author : Peter W. Barnes
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 148326839X
Total Pages : 483 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (832 download)

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Book Synopsis The Alaskan Beaufort Sea by : Peter W. Barnes

Download or read book The Alaskan Beaufort Sea written by Peter W. Barnes and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-09-17 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Alaskan Beaufort Sea: Ecosystems and Environments provides an interdisciplinary view into almost all aspects of the environment, with a detailed survey of the background literature. This book focuses on the Alaskan Beaufort Shelf environment. Organized into four parts encompassing 20 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the characteristics and history of the region in which the research took place and defines the objectives of the studies program. This text then examines the subsynoptic meteorological networks along the Beaufort Sea coast and shelf. Other chapters consider the thermally generated mesoscale effects on surface winds and the orographic mesoscale effects on surface winds. This book discusses as well the phytoplankton associations and relative phytoplankton production in the area between the 20-m depth contour and the edge of the ice in summer. The final chapter deals with the characteristics of the ice cover and oil-ice interactions that will affect cleanup activities after blowout. This book is a valuable resource for scientists and conservationists.

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030915183X
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by : National Research Council

Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Initialization and Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a Global Climate Model

Author : Steffen Tietsche
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 107 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (798 download)

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Book Synopsis Initialization and Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a Global Climate Model by : Steffen Tietsche

Download or read book Initialization and Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a Global Climate Model written by Steffen Tietsche and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Seasonal Forecast Skill and Potential Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in Two Versions of a Dynamical Forecast System

Author : Joseph Zachary Martin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Seasonal Forecast Skill and Potential Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in Two Versions of a Dynamical Forecast System by : Joseph Zachary Martin

Download or read book Seasonal Forecast Skill and Potential Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in Two Versions of a Dynamical Forecast System written by Joseph Zachary Martin and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the decline in Arctic sea ice extent makes this region more accessible, the need is increasing for effective seasonal sea ice forecasting to facilitate operational planning. Recently, coupled global climate models (CGCMs) have been used to address the need for effective sea ice forecasting on seasonal time scales. This thesis assesses the operational utility of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) for seasonal sea ice forecasting. This assessment consists of two separate studies. The first uses hindcasting to analyze the skill of two versions of CanSIPS, as well as an intermediate version, on the pan-Arctic as well as regional scales. This approach allows for an overall assessment of the system's skill in addition to providing insight with regards to the features in each version which improved that skill. This study finds that the use of a new initialization procedure for sea ice concentration and thickness improved forecast skill on the pan-Arctic scale as well as in the Central Arctic, Barents Sea, Laptev Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk. This study also shows that the substitution of one of the constituent models in the system improved forecast skill on the pan-Arctic scale as well as in the GIN, Barents, Kara, East Siberian, Chukchi, Bering, and Beaufort Seas. Overall, the new version of CanSIPS was found to be generally more skillful than previous versions. The second study conducts a potential predictability experiment on CanCM4, the constituent CGCM common to all versions of CanSIPS considered in this study. This study follows the methodology introduced by \cite{Bushuk2018} which allows for a more complete assessment of the dependency of potential predictability on initialization month than previous studies and for comparisons to be made between potential predictability and operational skill. This analysis is again done on both the pan-Arctic and regional scale. The findings of this experiment show that CanCM4 has relatively low potential predictability relative to other models and explains results previously presented in a multi-model study by \cite{Day2016}. Further, the characteristics of CanCM4's potential predictability share similarities with other models including greater predictability at longer lead times for winter target months than summer target months, greater predictability in the Atlantic sector than the Pacific sector, and the presence of the spring predictability barrier on the pan-Arctic scale as well as in several regions. The comparison of operational skill to potential predictability provides a general overview of the ``skill gap" which may be closed with improvements in initialization procedures and model physics. This comparison does, however, come with some caveats due to differences in the statistical characteristics of the perfect model and the climate system it represents. Together, the operational skill assessment of different versions of CanSIPS and the potential predictability experiment conducted on one of its constituent models, CanCM4, demonstrate that while room for improvement exists, the recent development of this forecast system has clearly increased its operational utility as a seasonal sea ice forecasting tool.

Sea Ice Prediction Physics

Author : Robert W. Grumbine
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (156 download)

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Book Synopsis Sea Ice Prediction Physics by : Robert W. Grumbine

Download or read book Sea Ice Prediction Physics written by Robert W. Grumbine and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A Textbook of Basic Statistics

Author :
Publisher : East African Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9789966463517
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (635 download)

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Book Synopsis A Textbook of Basic Statistics by :

Download or read book A Textbook of Basic Statistics written by and published by East African Publishers. This book was released on 1987 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309060982
Total Pages : 161 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change by : National Research Council

Download or read book Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-12-24 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Society today may be more vulnerable to global-scale, long-term, climate change than ever before. Even without any human influence, past records show that climate can be expected to continue to undergo considerable change over decades to centuries. Measures for adaption and mitigation will call for policy decisions based on a sound scientific foundation. Better understanding and prediction of climate variations can be achieved most efficiently through a nationally recognized "dec-cen" science plan. This book articulates the scientific issues that must be addressed to advance us efficiently toward that understanding and outlines the data collection and modeling needed.