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Author : Sergio Wechsler
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 230 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (7 download)
Download or read book On de Finettian Decision-making written by Sergio Wechsler and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : David R. Mandel
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 288963034X
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (896 download)
Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives written by David R. Mandel and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2019-09-26 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : John Kay
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 1324004789
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)
Download or read book Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
Author : Telba Zalkind Irony
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (33 download)
Download or read book Modeling, Information Extraction and Decision Making a Bayesian Approach to Some Engineering Problems written by Telba Zalkind Irony and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 774 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 774 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Laura Macchi
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262034085
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)
Download or read book Cognitive Unconscious and Human Rationality written by Laura Macchi and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2016-03-18 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examining the role of implicit, unconscious thinking on reasoning, decision making, problem solving, creativity, and its neurocognitive basis, for a genuinely psychological conception of rationality. This volume contributes to a current debate within the psychology of thought that has wide implications for our ideas about creativity, decision making, and economic behavior. The essays focus on the role of implicit, unconscious thinking in creativity and problem solving, the interaction of intuition and analytic thinking, and the relationship between communicative heuristics and thought. The analyses move beyond the conventional conception of mind informed by extra-psychological theoretical models toward a genuinely psychological conception of rationality—a rationality no longer limited to conscious, explicit thought, but able to exploit the intentional implicit level. The contributors consider a new conception of human rationality that must cope with the uncertainty of the real world; the implications of abandoning the normative model of classic logic and adopting a probabilistic approach instead; the argumentative and linguistic aspects of reasoning; and the role of implicit thought in reasoning, creativity, and its neurological base. Contributors Maria Bagassi, Linden J. Ball, Jean Baratgin, Aron K. Barbey, Tilmann Betsch, Eric Billaut, Jean-François Bonnefon, Pierre Bonnier, Shira Elqayam, Keith Frankish, Gerd Gigerenzer, Ken Gilhooly, Denis Hilton, Anna Lang, Stefanie Lindow, Laura Macchi, Hugo Mercier, Giuseppe Mosconi, Ian R. Newman, Mike Oaksford, David Over, Guy Politzer, Johannes Ritter, Steven A. Sloman, Edward J. N. Stupple, Ron Sun, Nicole H. Therriault, Valerie A. Thompson, Emmanuel Trouche-Raymond, Riccardo Viale
Author : Stephen Senn
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139438999
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)
Download or read book Dicing with Death written by Stephen Senn and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-11-20 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you think that statistics has nothing to say about what you do or how you could do it better, then you are either wrong or in need of a more interesting job. Stephen Senn explains here how statistics determines many decisions about medical care, from allocating resources for health, to determining which drugs to license, to cause-and-effect in relation to disease. He tackles big themes: clinical trials and the development of medicines, life tables, vaccines and their risks or lack of them, smoking and lung cancer and even the power of prayer. He entertains with puzzles and paradoxes and covers the lives of famous statistical pioneers. By the end of the book the reader will see how reasoning with probability is essential to making rational decisions in medicine, and how and when it can guide us when faced with choices that impact on our health and even life.
Author : William H. Batchelder
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 131658626X
Total Pages : 848 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (165 download)
Download or read book New Handbook of Mathematical Psychology: Volume 1, Foundations and Methodology written by William H. Batchelder and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-12-15 with total page 848 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of mathematical psychology began in the 1950s and includes both psychological theorizing, in which mathematics plays a key role, and applied mathematics, motivated by substantive problems in psychology. Central to its success was the publication of the first Handbook of Mathematical Psychology in the 1960s. The psychological sciences have since expanded to include new areas of research, and significant advances have been made in both traditional psychological domains and in the applications of the computational sciences to psychology. Upholding the rigor of the first title in this field to be published, the New Handbook of Mathematical Psychology reflects the current state of the field by exploring the mathematical and computational foundations of new developments over the last half-century. This first volume focuses on select mathematical ideas, theories, and modeling approaches to form a foundational treatment of mathematical psychology.
Author : Mei-Hsiu Ling
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (33 download)
Download or read book Robustness in the Bayesian Framework written by Mei-Hsiu Ling and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Philosophy of Science Association
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 242 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Philosophy of Science Association Newsletter written by Philosophy of Science Association and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Daniel Courgeau
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400728786
Total Pages : 333 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Probability and Social Science written by Daniel Courgeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-02-23 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work examines in depth the methodological relationships that probability and statistics have maintained with the social sciences from their emergence. It covers both the history of thought and current methods. First it examines in detail the history of the different paradigms and axioms for probability, from their emergence in the seventeenth century up to the most recent developments of the three major concepts: objective, subjective and logicist probability. It shows the statistical inference they permit, different applications to social sciences and the main problems they encounter. On the other side, from social sciences—particularly population sciences—to probability, it shows the different uses they made of probabilistic concepts during their history, from the seventeenth century, according to their paradigms: cross-sectional, longitudinal, hierarchical, contextual and multilevel approaches. While the ties may have seemed loose at times, they have more often been very close: some advances in probability were driven by the search for answers to questions raised by the social sciences; conversely, the latter have made progress thanks to advances in probability. This dual approach sheds new light on the historical development of the social sciences and probability, and on the enduring relevance of their links. It permits also to solve a number of methodological problems encountered all along their history.
Author : Nozer D. Singpurwalla
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470060336
Total Pages : 396 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Reliability and Risk written by Nozer D. Singpurwalla and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-14 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We all like to know how reliable and how risky certain situations are, and our increasing reliance on technology has led to the need for more precise assessments than ever before. Such precision has resulted in efforts both to sharpen the notions of risk and reliability, and to quantify them. Quantification is required for normative decision-making, especially decisions pertaining to our safety and wellbeing. Increasingly in recent years Bayesian methods have become key to such quantifications. Reliability and Risk provides a comprehensive overview of the mathematical and statistical aspects of risk and reliability analysis, from a Bayesian perspective. This book sets out to change the way in which we think about reliability and survival analysis by casting them in the broader context of decision-making. This is achieved by: Providing a broad coverage of the diverse aspects of reliability, including: multivariate failure models, dynamic reliability, event history analysis, non-parametric Bayes, competing risks, co-operative and competing systems, and signature analysis. Covering the essentials of Bayesian statistics and exchangeability, enabling readers who are unfamiliar with Bayesian inference to benefit from the book. Introducing the notion of “composite reliability”, or the collective reliability of a population of items. Discussing the relationship between notions of reliability and survival analysis and econometrics and financial risk. Reliability and Risk can most profitably be used by practitioners and research workers in reliability and survivability as a source of information, reference, and open problems. It can also form the basis of a graduate level course in reliability and risk analysis for students in statistics, biostatistics, engineering (industrial, nuclear, systems), operations research, and other mathematically oriented scientists, wherein the instructor could supplement the material with examples and problems.
Author : Claus Beisbart
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199577439
Total Pages : 450 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (995 download)
Download or read book Probabilities in Physics written by Claus Beisbart and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-15 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. It makes sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and presents a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 760 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book American Doctoral Dissertations written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 760 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Markus Knauff
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262045079
Total Pages : 879 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)
Download or read book The Handbook of Rationality written by Markus Knauff and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2021-12-14 with total page 879 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first reference on rationality that integrates accounts from psychology and philosophy, covering descriptive and normative theories from both disciplines. Both analytic philosophy and cognitive psychology have made dramatic advances in understanding rationality, but there has been little interaction between the disciplines. This volume offers the first integrated overview of the state of the art in the psychology and philosophy of rationality. Written by leading experts from both disciplines, The Handbook of Rationality covers the main normative and descriptive theories of rationality—how people ought to think, how they actually think, and why we often deviate from what we can call rational. It also offers insights from other fields such as artificial intelligence, economics, the social sciences, and cognitive neuroscience. The Handbook proposes a novel classification system for researchers in human rationality, and it creates new connections between rationality research in philosophy, psychology, and other disciplines. Following the basic distinction between theoretical and practical rationality, the book first considers the theoretical side, including normative and descriptive theories of logical, probabilistic, causal, and defeasible reasoning. It then turns to the practical side, discussing topics such as decision making, bounded rationality, game theory, deontic and legal reasoning, and the relation between rationality and morality. Finally, it covers topics that arise in both theoretical and practical rationality, including visual and spatial thinking, scientific rationality, how children learn to reason rationally, and the connection between intelligence and rationality.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1028 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (555 download)
Download or read book Metron written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 1028 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1428 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Statistical Theory and Method Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 1428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
