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Okuns Law
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Download or read book Okun's Law written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-14 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
Download or read book Okun's Law written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-14 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
Book Synopsis Equality and Efficiency REV by : Arthur M. Okun
Download or read book Equality and Efficiency REV written by Arthur M. Okun and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2015-04-30 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1975, Equality and Efficiency: The Big Tradeoff is a very personal work from one of the most important macroeconomists of the last hundred years. And this new edition includes "Further Thoughts on Equality and Efficiency," a paper published by the author two years later. In classrooms Arthur M. Okun may be best remembered for Okun's Law, but his lasting legacy is the respect and admiration he earned from economists, practitioners, and policymakers. Equality and Efficiency is the perfect embodiment of that legacy, valued both by professional economists and those readers with a keen interest in social policy. To his fellow economists, Okun presents messages, in the form of additional comments and select citations, in his footnotes. To all readers, Okun presents an engaging dual theme: the market needs a place, and the market needs to be kept in its place. As Okun puts it: Institutions in a capitalist democracy prod us to get ahead of our neighbors economically after telling us to stay in line socially. This double standard professes and pursues an egalitarian political and social system while simultaneously generating gaping disparities in economic well-being. Today, Okun's dual theme feels incredibly prescient as we grapple with the hot-button topic of income inequality. In his foreword, Lawrence H. Summers declares: On what one might think of as questions of "economic philosophy," I doubt that Okun has been improved on in the subsequent interval. His discussion of how societies rely on rights as well as markets should be required reading for all young economists who are enamored with market solutions to all problems. With a new foreword by Lawrence H. Summers
Book Synopsis Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups by : Zidong An
Download or read book Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups written by Zidong An and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.
Book Synopsis The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics by : David R. Henderson
Download or read book The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics written by David R. Henderson and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains 168 alphabetically arranged essays that provide information about topics related to economics, and includes biographical profiles of nearly one hundred noted economists.
Book Synopsis The Financialization of GDP by : Jacob Assa
Download or read book The Financialization of GDP written by Jacob Assa and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-08-12 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other statistics based on national income accounting are ubiquitous but rarely understood today. GDP has been criticized for many reasons, including not reflecting well-being, leaving out the costs of environmental pollution, and not counting unpaid work, but on purely economic terms it has been mostly accepted as an indicator of economic performance. In recent decades, however, GDP has diverged dramatically from economic trends such as employment and median income. This book argues that GDP is flawed even as a narrow economic indicator, and traces the problem to the way financial services are measured. The first part of the book is a political history of the practice of national accounting from its beginning in the mid-17th century to present day, and explores how such income estimates were constructed for political reasons. The Financialization of GDP presents the practice of estimating national income as a historically and political contingent craft - driven by power and not only theory - culminating in the rise of the financial sector and the concomitant inclusion of financial services in GDP in 1993.. The second part of the book focuses on the treatment of financial services in national accounting and develops an adjusted measure of output (Final Domestic Product or FDP) – which treats financial revenues as intermediate inputs (or costs) to the economy as a whole. The final part of the book explores the empirical and policy implications of treating finance as an overall cost to the economy. This volume shows that the Great Moderation of volatility was a statistical artefact; Okun’s Law (relating changes in output and unemployment) never died, and even provides early signs for the Great Recession which analysts using standard GDP did not see. This book is of great interest to those who study political economy and macroeconomics.
Download or read book Okun's Law written by Laurence M. Ball and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun's Law is a strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantially during the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of "jobless recoveries," are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship-the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate-varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labor markets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
Book Synopsis Labor Market Policies and Unemployment in Morocco by : Pierre-Richard Agénor
Download or read book Labor Market Policies and Unemployment in Morocco written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2003 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors study the impact of labor market policies on unemployment in Morocco. They begin by reviewing the main features of the labor market. Then they present a quantitative framework that captures many of these features-such as a large public sector, high redundancy payments, powerful trade unions, and international labor migration. The authors simulate the impact of a cut in the minimum wage and a reduction in payroll taxation. The results indicate that these policies may have a significant impact in the short term on open unskilled unemployment. But they also show that labor market reforms, to be effective in the long run, may need to be accompanied by offsetting changes in the budget to avoid crowding-out effects on private investment.
Book Synopsis Political Economy Perspectives on the Greek Crisis by : Ioannis Bournakis
Download or read book Political Economy Perspectives on the Greek Crisis written by Ioannis Bournakis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-27 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a comprehensive guide to the on-going Greek debt crisis. It identifies and explains Greece’s idiosyncratic weaknesses, and highlights the existing rigidities in the EU architecture that make the recovery prospects of the Greek economy challenging. Chapters from expert contributors highlight aspects of the performance of the Greek economy with focus on export performance, labour market conditions, political cycles and regional income disparities. The book then goes on to outline the banking system in Greece in the post-crisis era, and includes analysis that explains how the credit rating score affected Greece’s borrowing capacity prior to the start of the insolvency crisis. The final part analyses and compares alternative scenarios of fiscal consolidation, seeking to identify whether there are alternatives to fiscal austerity and the impact of each one of them. This section also clarifies various misconceptions about the significant determinants of international competitiveness. Despite the focus of the book, the lessons drawn from the chapters are not limited to Greece. This volume will be of interest to academics, practitioners and policy makers who wish to take a closer look at the Greek debt crisis and learn more about the challenges the Greek economy is currently facing.
Book Synopsis The Political Economy of Prosperity by : Arthur M. Okun
Download or read book The Political Economy of Prosperity written by Arthur M. Okun and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Reconstructing Macroeconomics by : Masanao Aoki
Download or read book Reconstructing Macroeconomics written by Masanao Aoki and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-29 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, the authors reconceptualize existing macroeconomics by treating equilibria as statistical distributions, not as fixed points.
Download or read book The Blank Swan written by Elie Ayache and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-05-17 with total page 501 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: October 19th 1987 was a day of huge change for the global finance industry. On this day the stock market crashed, the Nobel Prize winning Black-Scholes formula failed and volatility smiles were born, and on this day Elie Ayache began his career, on the trading floor of the French Futures and Options Exchange. Experts everywhere sought to find a model for this event, and ways to simulate it in order to avoid a recurrence in the future, but the one thing that struck Elie that day was the belief that what actually happened on 19th October 1987 is simply non reproducible outside 19th October 1987 - you cannot reduce it to a chain of causes and effects, or even to a random generator, that can then be reproduced or represented in a theoretical framework. The Blank Swan is Elie's highly original treatise on the financial markets presenting a totally revolutionary rethinking of derivative pricing and technology. It is not a diatribe against Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan, but criticises the whole background or framework of predictable and unpredictable events white and black swans alike , i.e. the very category of prediction. In this revolutionary book, Elie redefines the components of the technology needed to price and trade derivatives. Most importantly, and drawing on a long tradition of philosophy of the event from Henri Bergson to Gilles Deleuze, to Alain Badiou, and on a recent brand of philosophy of contingency, embodied by the speculative materialism of Quentin Meillassoux, Elie redefines the market itself against the common perceptions of orthodox financial theory, general equilibrium theory and the sociology of finance. This book will change the way that we think about derivatives and approach the market. If anything, derivatives should be renamed contingent claims, where contingency is now absolute and no longer derivative, and the market is just its medium. The book also establishes the missing link between quantitative modelling (no longer dependent on probability theory but on a novel brand of mathematics which Elie calls the mathematics of price) and the reality of the market.
Book Synopsis Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment by : Robert James Gordon
Download or read book Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment written by Robert James Gordon and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Publisher Description
Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Unemployment by : Sangyup Choi
Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Book Synopsis Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-10 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various countries. Furthermore, revisions to unemployment forecasts are negatively correlated with revisions to real GDP forecasts. These results are based on forecasts taken from Consensus Economics for nine advanced countries since 1989.
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-10 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various countries. Furthermore, revisions to unemployment forecasts are negatively correlated with revisions to real GDP forecasts. These results are based on forecasts taken from Consensus Economics for nine advanced countries since 1989.
