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Oil Shocks And Monetary Policy In An Estimated Dsge Model For A Small Open Economy
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Book Synopsis Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy by : Juan Pablo Medina Guzman
Download or read book Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy written by Juan Pablo Medina Guzman and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Estimated DSGE Model for Integrated Policy Analysis by : Kaili Chen
Download or read book An Estimated DSGE Model for Integrated Policy Analysis written by Kaili Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-30 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate a New Keynesian small open economy model which allows for foreign exchange (FX) market frictions and a potential role for FX interventions for a large set of emerging market economies (EMEs) and some inflation targeting (IT) advanced economy (AE) countries serving as a control group. Next, we use the estimated model to examine the empirical support for the view that interest rate policy may not be sufficient to stabilize output and inflation following capital outflow shocks, and the extent to which FX interventions (FXI) can improve policy tradeoffs. Our results reveal significant structural differences between AEs and EMEs—in particular FX market depth—leading to different transmission of capital outflow shocks which justifies occasional use of FXI in some EMEs in certain situations. Our analysis also highlights the critical importance of accounting for the endogeneity of FXI behavior when assessing FX market depth and policy tradeoffs associated with volatile capital flows in past episodes.
Book Synopsis A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation by : Philippe D Karam
Download or read book A Small Structural Monetary Policy Model for Small Open Economies with Debt Accumulation written by Philippe D Karam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-03 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We extend a small New Keynesian structural model used for monetary policy analysis to address a richer class of policy issues that arise in open economy analysis. We draw a distinction between absorption and domestic output, and as the difference between the two is effectively the current account, there is now an explicit accumulation or decumulation of foreign liabilities in response to various shocks affecting the system. Such stock equilibria can now have an impact back on to the flows in the domestic economy. We perform simulations using parameters calibrated to the Canadian economy and compare the differences in impulse responses from the original model. Advantages in a forecasting environment owing to the ability to impose explicit projections about imports and exports are also exposed.
Book Synopsis On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations by : Deren Unalmis
Download or read book On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations written by Deren Unalmis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.
Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Book Synopsis The effect of adverse oil price shocks on monetary policy and output using a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model with staggered price for Brazil by :
Download or read book The effect of adverse oil price shocks on monetary policy and output using a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model with staggered price for Brazil written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks by : Davide Debortoli
Download or read book Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks written by Davide Debortoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-21 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Book Synopsis News Shocks in Open Economies by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Book Synopsis An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Jordanian Economy by : Samya Beidas-Strom
Download or read book An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Jordanian Economy written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-02-01 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents and estimates a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model (DSGE) for the Jordanian economy. The model features nominal and real rigidities, imperfect competition and habit formation in the consumer’s utility function. Oil imports are explicitly modeled in the consumption basket and domestic production. Bayesian estimation methods are employed on quarterly Jordanian data. The model’s properties are described by impulse response analysis of identified structural shocks pertinent to the economy. These properties assess the effectiveness of the pegged exchange rate regime in minimizing inflation and output trade-offs. The estimates of the structural parameters fall within plausible ranges, and simulation results suggest that while the peg amplifies output, consumption and (price and wage) inflation volatility, it offers a relatively low risk premium.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy by :
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy in an Oil-Exporting Economy by : Franz Hamann
Download or read book Monetary Policy in an Oil-Exporting Economy written by Franz Hamann and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation-targeting central banks in oil-exporting economies. In this article, the authors illustrate this challenge and conduct a quantitative assessment of the impact of changes in oil prices in a small open economy in which oil represents an important fraction of its exports. They build a monetary, three-sector, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and estimate it for the Colombian economy. They model the oil sector as an optimal resource extracting problem and show that in oil-exporting economies the macroeconomic effects vary according to the degree of persistence of oil price shocks. The main channels through which these shocks pass to the economy come from the real exchange rate, the country risk premium, and sluggish price adjustments. Inflation-targeting central banks in such economies face a policy dilemma: raise the policy rate to fight increased inflation coming from the exchange rate passthrough or lower it to stimulate a slowing economy.
Book Synopsis A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model with Financial-real Linkages and Oil Prices by :
Download or read book A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model with Financial-real Linkages and Oil Prices written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
Book Synopsis Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-23 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Book Synopsis Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations by : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Regulation with Financial Frictions by : Pierre-Richard Agenor
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Regulation with Financial Frictions written by Pierre-Richard Agenor and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2020-11-10 with total page 601 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An integrated analysis of how financial frictions can be accounted for in macroeconomic models built to study monetary policy and macroprudential regulation. Since the global financial crisis, there has been a renewed effort to emphasize financial frictions in designing closed- and open-economy macroeconomic models for monetary and macroprudential policy analysis. Drawing on the extensive literature of the past decade as well as his own contributions, in this book Pierre-Richard Age&́nor provides a unified set of theoretical and quantitative macroeconomic models with financial frictions to explore issues that have emerged in the wake of the crisis. These include the need to understand better how the financial system amplifies and propagates shocks originating elsewhere in the economy; how it can itself be a source of aggregate fluctuations; the extent to which central banks should account for financial stability considerations in the conduct of monetary policy; whether national central banks and regulators should coordinate their policies to promote macroeconomic and financial stability; and how much countercyclical macroprudential policies should be coordinated at the international level to mitigate financial spillovers across countries.
Book Synopsis Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community by : Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi
Download or read book Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community written by Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-06 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.
