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Nowcasting the Business Cycle

Author : James Picerno
Publisher : CreateSpace
ISBN 13 : 9781492923855
Total Pages : 154 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (238 download)

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Book Synopsis Nowcasting the Business Cycle by : James Picerno

Download or read book Nowcasting the Business Cycle written by James Picerno and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-04 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nowcasting The Business Cycle presents a practical guide for analyzing recession risk—the primary risk factor that drives success and failure in business, finance, wealth management, and so much more. Whether you're an individual investor watching over your retirement account; the owner of a small business; a manager running a billion-dollar pension fund; or a CEO in charge of a global corporation, a large portion of triumph and defeat is closely linked with the broad swings in the economy. The business cycle, in other words, is the mother of all known (and recurring) risk factors. Accordingly, developing a process for assessing the likelihood of this threat is critical. Everyone needs a reliable, timely warning system that's relatively uncomplicated and transparent. Drawing on economic theory and macro's historical record, Nowcasting The Business Cycle outlines a simple but effective model for identifying those times when a new recession has probably started. This isn't forecasting, which is a fool's errand when it comes to the economy. Instead, the goal is recognizing when a majority of key indicators have already reached a tipping point. That may sound like a trivial advantage, but most people—including many economists—don't fully recognize when a recession has begun until the deterioration is obvious. By that point, the opportunity has probably passed for taking defensive measures in your investment portfolio, your business, or your career. The real challenge is less about predicting and more about developing solid intuition for recognizing when the macro threat is exceptionally high. Even a small degree of progress here can provide a considerable boost to your strategic insight. If we can learn the techniques for recognizing a cyclical downturn's presence relatively early—soon after it's begun, or just as it's starting—we'll have an advantage that tends to elude most folks. Nowcasting The Business Cycle provides a roadmap for ensuring that you won't be caught by surprise when the next recession strikes. That's a crucial advantage for one powerful reason: There's always another recession coming.

Radar Meteorology

Author : Frédéric Fabry
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107070465
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Radar Meteorology by : Frédéric Fabry

Download or read book Radar Meteorology written by Frédéric Fabry and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-05-21 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This practical full-color textbook introduces the fundamental physics behind radar measurements and their meteorological interpretation. A valuable resource for students, it includes problem sets, case studies, and supplementary electronic material. With a focus on operational and research applications, it is also a useful reference for researchers and professional meteorologists.

Politics and Big Data

Author : Andrea Ceron
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317134133
Total Pages : 196 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (171 download)

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Book Synopsis Politics and Big Data by : Andrea Ceron

Download or read book Politics and Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-12-19 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.

Doppler Radar Observations

Author : Joan Bech
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 9535104969
Total Pages : 486 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Doppler Radar Observations by : Joan Bech

Download or read book Doppler Radar Observations written by Joan Bech and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2012-04-05 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Doppler radar systems have been instrumental to improve our understanding and monitoring capabilities of phenomena taking place in the low, middle, and upper atmosphere. Weather radars, wind profilers, and incoherent and coherent scatter radars implementing Doppler techniques are now used routinely both in research and operational applications by scientists and practitioners. This book brings together a collection of eighteen essays by international leading authors devoted to different applications of ground based Doppler radars. Topics covered include, among others, severe weather surveillance, precipitation estimation and nowcasting, wind and turbulence retrievals, ionospheric radar and volcanological applications of Doppler radar. The book is ideally suited for graduate students looking for an introduction to the field or professionals intending to refresh or update their knowledge on Doppler radar applications.

Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy

Author : Avi Goldfarb
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022620684X
Total Pages : 510 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy by : Avi Goldfarb

Download or read book Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy written by Avi Goldfarb and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2015-05-08 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a small and growing literature that explores the impact of digitization in a variety of contexts, but its economic consequences, surprisingly, remain poorly understood. This volume aims to set the agenda for research in the economics of digitization, with each chapter identifying a promising area of research. Economics of Digitizationidentifies urgent topics with research already underway that warrant further exploration from economists. In addition to the growing importance of digitization itself, digital technologies have some features that suggest that many well-studied economic models may not apply and, indeed, so many aspects of the digital economy throw normal economics in a loop.Economics of Digitization will be one of the first to focus on the economic implications of digitization and to bring together leading scholars in the economics of digitization to explore emerging research.

Data Science for Economics and Finance

Author : Sergio Consoli
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030668916
Total Pages : 357 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis Data Science for Economics and Finance by : Sergio Consoli

Download or read book Data Science for Economics and Finance written by Sergio Consoli and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.

Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models

Author : Jing Xie
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models by : Jing Xie

Download or read book Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models written by Jing Xie and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-03 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many central banks and government agencies use nowcasting techniques to obtain policy relevant information about the business cycle. Existing nowcasting methods, however, have two critical shortcomings for this purpose. First, in contrast to machine-learning models, they do not provide much if any guidance on selecting the best explantory variables (both high- and low-frequency indicators) from the (typically) larger set of variables available to the nowcaster. Second, in addition to the selection of explanatory variables, the order of the autoregression and moving average terms to use in the baseline nowcasting regression is often set arbitrarily. This paper proposes a simple procedure that simultaneously selects the optimal indicators and ARIMA(p,q) terms for the baseline nowcasting regression. The proposed AS-ARIMAX (Adjusted Stepwise Autoregressive Moving Average methods with exogenous variables) approach significantly reduces out-of-sample root mean square error for nowcasts of real GDP of six countries, including India, Argentina, Australia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Nowcasting CO2 Emissions: early estimates or “nowcasts” for monitoring changes in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs)

Author : Pandis Iveroth, Sofie
Publisher : Nordic Council of Ministers
ISBN 13 : 9289373512
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (893 download)

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Book Synopsis Nowcasting CO2 Emissions: early estimates or “nowcasts” for monitoring changes in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by : Pandis Iveroth, Sofie

Download or read book Nowcasting CO2 Emissions: early estimates or “nowcasts” for monitoring changes in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) written by Pandis Iveroth, Sofie and published by Nordic Council of Ministers. This book was released on 2022-08-16 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Available online: https://pub.norden.org/temanord2022-537/ Anthesis AB, Real-Zero Consulting HB, PlanMiljø Aps and Kausal Ltd have conducted a survey on the use and the possible uses of early estimates or “nowcasts” for monitoring changes in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) with a focus on fossil CO2. Nordic countries report emission statistics to the UNFCCC as well as EU. Due to more ambitious national mitigation targets, there is need for more timely emission statistics. The project suggests a development of early estimates through:- further analysis of the need and possibilities for nowcasting, focusing on a clear understanding of what timely emission estimates will be used for.- instigate a climate policy lab, given the complexity to overview and communicate the need and possibilities for nowcasting data.- create a portal collecting available emission statistics, as currently it is a complex task to overview available emission statistics.

Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

Author : Omer Faruk Akbal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable by : Omer Faruk Akbal

Download or read book Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable written by Omer Faruk Akbal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-04 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.

Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies

Author : Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies by : Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin

Download or read book Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies written by Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-03-11 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF’s European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning (ML) algorithms to nowcast GDP growth across a heterogenous group of European economies during normal and crisis times. Most of our methods significantly outperform the AR(1) benchmark model. Our DFMs tend to perform better during normal times while many of the ML methods we used performed strongly at identifying turning points. Our approach is easily applicable to other countries, subject to data availability.

Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author : Brandon Buell
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513582496
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Brandon Buell

Download or read book Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Brandon Buell and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.

Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses

Author : John Haltiwanger
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022645407X
Total Pages : 488 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (264 download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses by : John Haltiwanger

Download or read book Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses written by John Haltiwanger and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2017-09-21 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges brings together and unprecedented group of economists, data providers, and data analysts to discuss research on the state of entrepreneurship and to address the challenges in understanding this dynamic part of the economy. Each chapter addresses the challenges of measuring entrepreneurship and how entrepreneurial firms contribute to economies and standards of living. The book also investigates heterogeneity in entrepreneurs, challenges experienced by entrepreneurs over time, and how much less we know than we think about entrepreneurship given data limitations. This volume will be a groundbreaking first serious look into entrepreneurship in the NBER's Income and Wealth series.

Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time

Author : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513523228
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time by : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp

Download or read book Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-13 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by comparing them with official statistics on trade and maritime statistics. If the challenges associated with port call data are overcome through appropriate filtering techniques, we show that these emerging “big data” on vessel traffic could allow statistical agencies to complement existing data sources on trade and introduce new statistics that are more timely (real time), offering an innovative way to measure trade activity. That, in turn, could facilitate faster detection of turning points in economic activity. The approach could be extended to create a real-time worldwide indicator of global trade activity.

Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics

Author : Katharine G. Abraham
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022680125X
Total Pages : 502 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (268 download)

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Book Synopsis Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics by : Katharine G. Abraham

Download or read book Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics written by Katharine G. Abraham and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-03-11 with total page 502 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction.Big data for twenty-first-century economic statistics: the future is now /Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian C. Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro --Toward comprehensive use of big data in economic statistics.Reengineering key national economic indicators /Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, David Johnson, and Matthew D. Shapiro ;Big data in the US consumer price index: experiences and plans /Crystal G. Konny, Brendan K. Williams, and David M. Friedman ;Improving retail trade data products using alternative data sources /Rebecca J. Hutchinson ;From transaction data to economic statistics: constructing real-time, high-frequency, geographic measures of consumer spending /Aditya Aladangady, Shifrah Aron-Dine, Wendy Dunn, Laura Feiveson, Paul Lengermann, and Claudia Sahm ;Improving the accuracy of economic measurement with multiple data sources: the case of payroll employment data /Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz --Uses of big data for classification.Transforming naturally occurring text data into economic statistics: the case of online job vacancy postings /Arthur Turrell, Bradley Speigner, Jyldyz Djumalieva, David Copple, and James Thurgood ;Automating response evaluation for franchising questions on the 2017 economic census /Joseph Staudt, Yifang Wei, Lisa Singh, Shawn Klimek, J. Bradford Jensen, and Andrew Baer ;Using public data to generate industrial classification codes /John Cuffe, Sudip Bhattacharjee, Ugochukwu Etudo, Justin C. Smith, Nevada Basdeo, Nathaniel Burbank, and Shawn R. Roberts --Uses of big data for sectoral measurement.Nowcasting the local economy: using Yelp data to measure economic activity /Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim, and Michael Luca ;Unit values for import and export price indexes: a proof of concept /Don A. Fast and Susan E. Fleck ;Quantifying productivity growth in the delivery of important episodes of care within the Medicare program using insurance claims and administrative data /John A. Romley, Abe Dunn, Dana Goldman, and Neeraj Sood ;Valuing housing services in the era of big data: a user cost approach leveraging Zillow microdata /Marina Gindelsky, Jeremy G. Moulton, and Scott A. Wentland --Methodological challenges and advances.Off to the races: a comparison of machine learning and alternative data for predicting economic indicators /Jeffrey C. Chen, Abe Dunn, Kyle Hood, Alexander Driessen, and Andrea Batch ;A machine learning analysis of seasonal and cyclical sales in weekly scanner data /Rishab Guha and Serena Ng ;Estimating the benefits of new products /W. Erwin Diewert and Robert C. Feenstra.

Deep Learning for the Earth Sciences

Author : Gustau Camps-Valls
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119646162
Total Pages : 436 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Deep Learning for the Earth Sciences by : Gustau Camps-Valls

Download or read book Deep Learning for the Earth Sciences written by Gustau Camps-Valls and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-08-18 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: DEEP LEARNING FOR THE EARTH SCIENCES Explore this insightful treatment of deep learning in the field of earth sciences, from four leading voices Deep learning is a fundamental technique in modern Artificial Intelligence and is being applied to disciplines across the scientific spectrum; earth science is no exception. Yet, the link between deep learning and Earth sciences has only recently entered academic curricula and thus has not yet proliferated. Deep Learning for the Earth Sciences delivers a unique perspective and treatment of the concepts, skills, and practices necessary to quickly become familiar with the application of deep learning techniques to the Earth sciences. The book prepares readers to be ready to use the technologies and principles described in their own research. The distinguished editors have also included resources that explain and provide new ideas and recommendations for new research especially useful to those involved in advanced research education or those seeking PhD thesis orientations. Readers will also benefit from the inclusion of: An introduction to deep learning for classification purposes, including advances in image segmentation and encoding priors, anomaly detection and target detection, and domain adaptation An exploration of learning representations and unsupervised deep learning, including deep learning image fusion, image retrieval, and matching and co-registration Practical discussions of regression, fitting, parameter retrieval, forecasting and interpolation An examination of physics-aware deep learning models, including emulation of complex codes and model parametrizations Perfect for PhD students and researchers in the fields of geosciences, image processing, remote sensing, electrical engineering and computer science, and machine learning, Deep Learning for the Earth Sciences will also earn a place in the libraries of machine learning and pattern recognition researchers, engineers, and scientists.

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods

Author : Eric Ghysels
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190622016
Total Pages : 617 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (96 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods by : Eric Ghysels

Download or read book Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods written by Eric Ghysels and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author : Michael P. Clements
Publisher : OUP USA
ISBN 13 : 0195398645
Total Pages : 732 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (953 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Michael P. Clements

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.