National Population Forecasting In Industrialized Countries

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Beyond Six Billion

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309069904
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond Six Billion by : National Research Council

Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-10-11 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

Author : E. Tabeau
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0306475626
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries by : E. Tabeau

Download or read book Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries written by E. Tabeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-11 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights

Author : United Nations Publications
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789211483161
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (831 download)

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Book Synopsis World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights by : United Nations Publications

Download or read book World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights written by United Nations Publications and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United Nations population estimates and projections form a comprehensive set of demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels. They are used in the calculation of many of the key development indicators commonly used by the United Nations system, including for more than one third of the indicators used to monitor progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth edition of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, which have been prepared since 1951 by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2019 revision presents population estimates from 1950 until the present for 235 countries or areas, which have been developed through country-specific analyses of historical demographic trends. It builds on previous revisions by incorporating additional results from the 2010 and 2020 rounds of national population censuses as well as information from vital registration and recent nationally representative household sample surveys. The 2019 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country levels. These Highlights summarise key population trends described by the estimates and projections presented in World Population Prospects 2019.

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

Author : Tommy Bengtsson
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030050750
Total Pages : 341 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by : Tommy Bengtsson

Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.

World Urbanization Prospects

Author : United Nations Publications
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789211483192
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (831 download)

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Book Synopsis World Urbanization Prospects by : United Nations Publications

Download or read book World Urbanization Prospects written by United Nations Publications and published by . This book was released on 2019-10-18 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The report presents findings from the 2018 revision of World Urbanization Prospects, which contains the latest estimates of the urban and rural populations or areas from 1950 to 2018 and projections to 2050, as well as estimates of population size from 1950 to 2018 and projections to 2030 for all urban agglomerations with 300,000 inhabitants or more in 2018. The world urban population is at an all-time high, and the share of urban dwellers, is projected to represent two thirds of the global population in 2050. Continued urbanization will bring new opportunities and challenges for sustainable development.

Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set

Author : Graziella Caselli
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 012765660X
Total Pages : 2857 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (276 download)

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Book Synopsis Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set by : Graziella Caselli

Download or read book Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set written by Graziella Caselli and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2006-01-03 with total page 2857 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume collection of over 140 original chapters covers virtually everything of interest to demographers, sociologists, and others. Over 100 authors present population subjects in ways that provoke thinking and lead to the creation of new perspectives, not just facts and equations to be memorized. The articles follow a theory-methods-applications approach and so offer a kind of "one-stop shop" that is well suited for students and professors who need non-technical summaries, such as political scientists, public affairs specialists, and others. Unlike shorter handbooks, Demography: Analysis and Synthesis offers a long overdue, thorough treatment of the field. Choosing the analytical method that fits the data and the situation requires insights that the authors and editors of Demography: Analysis and Synthesis have explored and developed. This extended examination of demographic tools not only seeks to explain the analytical tools themselves, but also the relationships between general population dynamics and their natural, economic, social, political, and cultural environments. Limiting themselves to human populations only, the authors and editors cover subjects that range from the core building blocks of population change--fertility, mortality, and migration--to the consequences of demographic changes in the biological and health fields, population theories and doctrines, observation systems, and the teaching of demography. The international perspectives brought to these subjects is vital for those who want an unbiased, rounded overview of these complex, multifaceted subjects. Topics to be covered: * Population Dynamics and the Relationship Between Population Growth and Structure * The Determinants of Fertility * The Determinants of Mortality * The Determinants of Migration * Historical and Geographical Determinants of Population * The Effects of Population on Health, Economics, Culture, and the Environment * Population Policies * Data Collection Methods and Teaching about Population Studies * All chapters share a common format * Each chapter features several cross-references to other chapters * Tables, charts, and other non-text features are widespread * Each chapter contains at least 30 bibliographic citations

Aging and the Macroeconomy

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309261961
Total Pages : 230 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Aging and the Macroeconomy by : National Research Council

Download or read book Aging and the Macroeconomy written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-10 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.

The Demographic Dividend

Author : David Bloom
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833033735
Total Pages : 127 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis The Demographic Dividend by : David Bloom

Download or read book The Demographic Dividend written by David Bloom and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-02-13 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.

Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Author : Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030424723
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Developments in Demographic Forecasting by : Stefano Mazzuco

Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Global Trends 2040

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (949 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Population Forecasting 1895–1945

Author : Henk A. de Gans
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792355373
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (553 download)

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Book Synopsis Population Forecasting 1895–1945 by : Henk A. de Gans

Download or read book Population Forecasting 1895–1945 written by Henk A. de Gans and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1999-01-31 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The book will be of interest to scientists, researchers and students in demography and applied demography, statistics, economy, social geography and urban and regional planning and science studies."--BOOK JACKET.

Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180090
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa by : National Research Council

Download or read book Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-11-10 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In sub-Saharan Africa, older people make up a relatively small fraction of the total population and are supported primarily by family and other kinship networks. They have traditionally been viewed as repositories of information and wisdom, and are critical pillars of the community but as the HIV/AIDS pandemic destroys family systems, the elderly increasingly have to deal with the loss of their own support while absorbing the additional responsibilities of caring for their orphaned grandchildren. Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa explores ways to promote U.S. research interests and to augment the sub-Saharan governments' capacity to address the many challenges posed by population aging. Five major themes are explored in the book such as the need for a basic definition of "older person," the need for national governments to invest more in basic research and the coordination of data collection across countries, and the need for improved dialogue between local researchers and policy makers. This book makes three major recommendations: 1) the development of a research agenda 2) enhancing research opportunity and implementation and 3) the translation of research findings.

2020 World Population Data Sheet

Author : Toshiko Kaneda
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780917136160
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (361 download)

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Book Synopsis 2020 World Population Data Sheet by : Toshiko Kaneda

Download or read book 2020 World Population Data Sheet written by Toshiko Kaneda and published by . This book was released on 2020-07-10 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

National Population Forecasting in Industrialized Countries

Author : Nico Keilman
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 388 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis National Population Forecasting in Industrialized Countries by : Nico Keilman

Download or read book National Population Forecasting in Industrialized Countries written by Nico Keilman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1992-06 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on a review conducted in 1988 of national population forecasting processes applied by statistical agencies in 30 countries.

The Limits to Growth

Author : Donella H. Meadows
Publisher : Universe Pub
ISBN 13 : 9780876632222
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (322 download)

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Book Synopsis The Limits to Growth by : Donella H. Meadows

Download or read book The Limits to Growth written by Donella H. Meadows and published by Universe Pub. This book was released on 1972 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines the factors which limit human economic and population growth and outlines the steps necessary for achieving a balance between population and production. Bibliogs

Statistical Demography and Forecasting

Author : Juha Alho
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387283927
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Demography and Forecasting by : Juha Alho

Download or read book Statistical Demography and Forecasting written by Juha Alho and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-05-27 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. Presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. Exercises are included to facilitate its classroom use. Both authors have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.

Health and Mortality Among Elderly Populations

Author : Graziella Caselli
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780198233374
Total Pages : 390 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (333 download)

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Book Synopsis Health and Mortality Among Elderly Populations by : Graziella Caselli

Download or read book Health and Mortality Among Elderly Populations written by Graziella Caselli and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In both developed and developing countries, the elderly have enjoyed significant declines in mortality and increased survival. At the same time, these trends have also given rise to many uncertainties and demands on resources which are often not given their due attention. Future mortality declines, particularly among the elderly, are often overshadowed by fears of their increasing share of the total population and the demands that this places on society to resolve the problems stemming from longer survival - problems, for example, which are not just a question of guaranteeing longer life but also of ensuring an acceptable health status. In recent years, there has been a substantial literature on many facets of the daily lives of the elderly. This volume is a further contribution to the literature, pinpointing the most recent trends in the survival of the elderly and in their physical and mental health. It also describes possible scenarios for the early decades of the twenty-first century. To delineate current knowledge with regard to the health and survival of the elderly is a first step towards preparing projections and improving the efficacy of health policies for the elderly. The first section of this volume is dedicated to a discussion about the age at which people become `elderly' and to the application of evolutionary theory to demographic models of human mortality. The second section looks in more detail at different aspects of morbidity and mortality trends and their underlying causes. The third section deals with mortality projections, ranging from the hypotheses to problems of methodology. The fourth section covers social and health strategies to improve the survival and quality of life of the elderly, in view of the fact that more and more people may expect to live longer and longer, and perhaps in increasingly better health.