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Model Selection And Some Extensions Of Markov Switching Models
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Author :Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :0387357688 Total Pages :506 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (873 download)
Book Synopsis Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models by : Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter
Download or read book Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models written by Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-24 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past decade has seen powerful new computational tools for modeling which combine a Bayesian approach with recent Monte simulation techniques based on Markov chains. This book is the first to offer a systematic presentation of the Bayesian perspective of finite mixture modelling. The book is designed to show finite mixture and Markov switching models are formulated, what structures they imply on the data, their potential uses, and how they are estimated. Presenting its concepts informally without sacrificing mathematical correctness, it will serve a wide readership including statisticians as well as biologists, economists, engineers, financial and market researchers.
Book Synopsis Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions by : Hans-Martin Krolzig
Download or read book Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions written by Hans-Martin Krolzig and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.
Book Synopsis Hidden Markov Models for Time Series by : Walter Zucchini
Download or read book Hidden Markov Models for Time Series written by Walter Zucchini and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-12-19 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R, Second Edition illustrates the great flexibility of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as general-purpose models for time series data. The book provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses. After presenting the basic model formulation, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference for HMMs. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so that it can be applied in a rich variety of situations. The book demonstrates how HMMs can be applied to a wide range of types of time series: continuous-valued, circular, multivariate, binary, bounded and unbounded counts, and categorical observations. It also discusses how to employ the freely available computing environment R to carry out the computations. Features Presents an accessible overview of HMMs Explores a variety of applications in ecology, finance, epidemiology, climatology, and sociology Includes numerous theoretical and programming exercises Provides most of the analysed data sets online New to the second edition A total of five chapters on extensions, including HMMs for longitudinal data, hidden semi-Markov models and models with continuous-valued state process New case studies on animal movement, rainfall occurrence and capture-recapture data
Book Synopsis Selected Proceedings of the Symposium on Inference for Stochastic Processes by : Ishwar V. Basawa
Download or read book Selected Proceedings of the Symposium on Inference for Stochastic Processes written by Ishwar V. Basawa and published by IMS. This book was released on 2001 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dissertation Abstracts International by :
Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 994 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Latent Markov Models for Longitudinal Data by : Francesco Bartolucci
Download or read book Latent Markov Models for Longitudinal Data written by Francesco Bartolucci and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-10-29 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing on the authors' extensive research in the analysis of categorical longitudinal data, this book focuses on the formulation of latent Markov models and the practical use of these models. It demonstrates how to use the models in three types of analysis, with numerous examples illustrating how latent Markov models are used in economics, education, sociology, and other fields. The R and MATLAB routines used for the examples are available on the authors' website.
Book Synopsis State-space Models with Regime Switching by : Chang-Jin Kim
Download or read book State-space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Book Synopsis Inference in Hidden Markov Models by : Olivier Cappé
Download or read book Inference in Hidden Markov Models written by Olivier Cappé and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-12 with total page 656 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a comprehensive treatment of inference for hidden Markov models, including both algorithms and statistical theory. Topics range from filtering and smoothing of the hidden Markov chain to parameter estimation, Bayesian methods and estimation of the number of states. In a unified way the book covers both models with finite state spaces and models with continuous state spaces (also called state-space models) requiring approximate simulation-based algorithms that are also described in detail. Many examples illustrate the algorithms and theory. This book builds on recent developments to present a self-contained view.
Book Synopsis Efficient Learning Machines by : Mariette Awad
Download or read book Efficient Learning Machines written by Mariette Awad and published by Apress. This book was released on 2015-04-27 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning techniques provide cost-effective alternatives to traditional methods for extracting underlying relationships between information and data and for predicting future events by processing existing information to train models. Efficient Learning Machines explores the major topics of machine learning, including knowledge discovery, classifications, genetic algorithms, neural networking, kernel methods, and biologically-inspired techniques. Mariette Awad and Rahul Khanna’s synthetic approach weaves together the theoretical exposition, design principles, and practical applications of efficient machine learning. Their experiential emphasis, expressed in their close analysis of sample algorithms throughout the book, aims to equip engineers, students of engineering, and system designers to design and create new and more efficient machine learning systems. Readers of Efficient Learning Machines will learn how to recognize and analyze the problems that machine learning technology can solve for them, how to implement and deploy standard solutions to sample problems, and how to design new systems and solutions. Advances in computing performance, storage, memory, unstructured information retrieval, and cloud computing have coevolved with a new generation of machine learning paradigms and big data analytics, which the authors present in the conceptual context of their traditional precursors. Awad and Khanna explore current developments in the deep learning techniques of deep neural networks, hierarchical temporal memory, and cortical algorithms. Nature suggests sophisticated learning techniques that deploy simple rules to generate highly intelligent and organized behaviors with adaptive, evolutionary, and distributed properties. The authors examine the most popular biologically-inspired algorithms, together with a sample application to distributed datacenter management. They also discuss machine learning techniques for addressing problems of multi-objective optimization in which solutions in real-world systems are constrained and evaluated based on how well they perform with respect to multiple objectives in aggregate. Two chapters on support vector machines and their extensions focus on recent improvements to the classification and regression techniques at the core of machine learning.
Book Synopsis Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics by : Robert A. Meyers
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Processes: Modeling and Simulation by : D N Shanbhag
Download or read book Stochastic Processes: Modeling and Simulation written by D N Shanbhag and published by Gulf Professional Publishing. This book was released on 2003-02-24 with total page 1028 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This sequel to volume 19 of Handbook on Statistics on Stochastic Processes: Modelling and Simulation is concerned mainly with the theme of reviewing and, in some cases, unifying with new ideas the different lines of research and developments in stochastic processes of applied flavour. This volume consists of 23 chapters addressing various topics in stochastic processes. These include, among others, those on manufacturing systems, random graphs, reliability, epidemic modelling, self-similar processes, empirical processes, time series models, extreme value therapy, applications of Markov chains, modelling with Monte Carlo techniques, and stochastic processes in subjects such as engineering, telecommunications, biology, astronomy and chemistry. particular with modelling, simulation techniques and numerical methods concerned with stochastic processes. The scope of the project involving this volume as well as volume 19 is already clarified in the preface of volume 19. The present volume completes the aim of the project and should serve as an aid to students, teachers, researchers and practitioners interested in applied stochastic processes.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Item Response Theory by : Wim J. van der Linden
Download or read book Handbook of Item Response Theory written by Wim J. van der Linden and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-03-31 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing on the work of internationally acclaimed experts in the field, Handbook of Item Response Theory, Volume Two: Statistical Tools presents classical and modern statistical tools used in item response theory (IRT). While IRT heavily depends on the use of statistical tools for handling its models and applications, systematic introductions and reviews that emphasize their relevance to IRT are hardly found in the statistical literature. This second volume in a three-volume set fills this void. Volume Two covers common probability distributions, the issue of models with both intentional and nuisance parameters, the use of information criteria, methods for dealing with missing data, and model identification issues. It also addresses recent developments in parameter estimation and model fit and comparison, such as Bayesian approaches, specifically Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.
Book Synopsis Econometric Analysis of Model Selection and Model Testing by : M. Ishaq Bhatti
Download or read book Econometric Analysis of Model Selection and Model Testing written by M. Ishaq Bhatti and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years econometricians have examined the problems of diagnostic testing, specification testing, semiparametric estimation and model selection. In addition researchers have considered whether to use model testing and model selection procedures to decide the models that best fit a particular dataset. This book explores both issues with application to various regression models, including the arbitrage pricing theory models. It is ideal as a reference for statistical sciences postgraduate students, academic researchers and policy makers in understanding the current status of model building and testing techniques.
Book Synopsis Cognitive Modeling in Perception and Memory by : J G W Raaijmakers
Download or read book Cognitive Modeling in Perception and Memory written by J G W Raaijmakers and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2015-02-11 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The work of Richard M. Shiffrin has highly impacted the field of cognitive science, and current developments within perception and memory have been influenced by his ideas. In this volume, several key figures in the field will comment on these developments and put them in a wider perspective. Although many theories and models have been presented in recent years for various aspects of human cognition, there have not been many comparative evaluations that focus on how these models have really advanced our understanding of the underlying mechanisms. This volume will be a valuable source of information for both cognitive scientists working in the field, and researchers and students looking for a clear, accessible presentation of the key problems in cognitive science. Highlighted sections include attention and perception, memory functions and processes, knowledge representation and semantics, modelling approaches and applications.
Book Synopsis Statistical Modeling and Applications on Real-Time Problems by : Chandra Shekhar
Download or read book Statistical Modeling and Applications on Real-Time Problems written by Chandra Shekhar and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2024-06-06 with total page 249 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an era dominated by mathematical and statistical models, this book unravels the profound significance of these tools in decoding uncertainties within numerical, observational, and calculation-based data. From governmental institutions to private entities, statistical prediction models provide a critical framework for optimal decision-making, offering nuanced insights into diverse realms, from climate to production and beyond. This book ·Serves as a comprehensive resource in statistical modeling, methodologies, and optimization techniques across various domains. ·Features contributions from global authors; the compilation comprises 10 insightful chapters, each addressing critical aspects of estimation and optimization through statistical modeling. ·Covers a spectrum of topics, from non-parametric goodness-of-fit statistics to Bayesian applications; the book explores novel resampling methods, advanced measures for empirical mode, and transient behavior analysis in queueing systems. ·Includes asymptotic properties of goodness-of-fit statistics, practical applications of Bayesian Statistics, modifications to the Hard EM algorithm, and explicit transient probabilities. ·Culminates with an exploration of an inventory model for perishable items, integrating preservation technology and learning effects to determine the economic order quantity. This book stands as a testament to global collaboration, offering a rich tapestry of commendable statistical and mathematical modeling alongside real-world problem-solving. It is poised to ignite further exploration, discussion, and innovation in the realms of statistical modeling and optimization.
Book Synopsis Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice by : W.R. Gilks
Download or read book Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice written by W.R. Gilks and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1995-12-01 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a family study of breast cancer, epidemiologists in Southern California increase the power for detecting a gene-environment interaction. In Gambia, a study helps a vaccination program reduce the incidence of Hepatitis B carriage. Archaeologists in Austria place a Bronze Age site in its true temporal location on the calendar scale. And in France, researchers map a rare disease with relatively little variation. Each of these studies applied Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to produce more accurate and inclusive results. General state-space Markov chain theory has seen several developments that have made it both more accessible and more powerful to the general statistician. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice introduces MCMC methods and their applications, providing some theoretical background as well. The authors are researchers who have made key contributions in the recent development of MCMC methodology and its application. Considering the broad audience, the editors emphasize practice rather than theory, keeping the technical content to a minimum. The examples range from the simplest application, Gibbs sampling, to more complex applications. The first chapter contains enough information to allow the reader to start applying MCMC in a basic way. The following chapters cover main issues, important concepts and results, techniques for implementing MCMC, improving its performance, assessing model adequacy, choosing between models, and applications and their domains. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice is a thorough, clear introduction to the methodology and applications of this simple idea with enormous potential. It shows the importance of MCMC in real applications, such as archaeology, astronomy, biostatistics, genetics, epidemiology, and image analysis, and provides an excellent base for MCMC to be applied to other fields as well.
Book Synopsis Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
