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Medium Term Business Cycles
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Book Synopsis Medium Term Business Cycles by : Diego Comin
Download or read book Medium Term Business Cycles written by Diego Comin and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the postwar, the U.S., Europe and Japan have experienced what may be thought of as medium frequency oscillations between persistent periods of robust growth and persistent periods of relative stagnation. These medium frequency movements, further, appear to bear some relation to the high frequency volatility of output. That is, periods of stagnation are often associated with significant recessions, while persistent booms typically are either free of recessions or are interrupted only by very modest downturns. In this paper we explore the idea of medium term cycles, which we define as reflecting the sum of the high and medium frequency variation in the data. We develop a methodology for identifying these kinds of fluctuations and then show that a number of important macroeconomic time series exhibit significant medium term cycles. The cycles feature strong procyclical movements in both disembodied and embodied technological change, research & development, and the efficiency of resource utilization. We then develop a model to explain the medium term cycle that features both disembodied and embodied endogenous technological change, along with countercyclical markups and variable factor utilization. The model is able to generate medium term fluctuations in output, technological change, and resource utilization that resemble the data, with a non-technological shock as the exogenous disturbance. In particular the model offers a unified approach to explaining both high and medium frequency variation in aggregate business activity
Book Synopsis Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries by :
Download or read book Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis On Simultaneous Explanation of Long Periodic Movements and Medium Term Business Cycles by : K. B. T. Thio
Download or read book On Simultaneous Explanation of Long Periodic Movements and Medium Term Business Cycles written by K. B. T. Thio and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1913 with total page 642 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis International Medium-term Business Cycles by :
Download or read book International Medium-term Business Cycles written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreign driven medium-term oscillations that originate from fluctuations in technological frontier countries gained widespread attention among policymakers. To study this phenomenon in the context of domestic and other foreign drivers of the euro area business cycle, we develop a medium-scale, two-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous growth and estimate it with Bayesian methods for the United States and the euro area for the period from 1984:Q1 to 2017:Q4. The framework suggests that foreign shocks can be a substantial source of medium-term oscillations that contribute to pro-cyclicality of real GDP across countries. Notably, US shocks to liquidity preference and trade demand explain more than a third of the euro area downturn during the Great Recession.
Book Synopsis Economic Cycles by : Solomos Solomou
Download or read book Economic Cycles written by Solomos Solomou and published by Manchester University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?
Book Synopsis Medium-Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries by : Diego A. Comin
Download or read book Medium-Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries written by Diego A. Comin and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical evidence - including the current global crisis - suggests that shocks from advanced countries often have a disproportionate effect on developing economies. Can this account for the fact that aggregate fluctuations are larger and more persistent in the latter than in the former economies? And what are the mechanisms at play? This paper addresses these questions using a model of an industrial and a developing economy trading goods and assets, with (i) a product cycle shaping the range of intermediate goods used to produce new capital in each country, and (ii) investment adjustment costs in the developing economy. Innovation by the advanced economy results in new intermediate goods, at first produced at home, and eventually transferred to the developing economy through direct investment. The pace of innovation and technology transfer is driven by profitability. This process of technology diffusion creates a medium-term connection between both economies, over and above the short-term link through trade. Calibration of the model to match Mexico-United States trade and foreign direct investment flows shows that this mechanism can explain why shocks to the United States economy have a larger effect on Mexico than on the United States itself, and hence why Mexico shows higher volatility than the United States; why business cycles in the United States lead to medium-term fluctuations in Mexico; and why consumption is not less volatile than output in Mexico.
Book Synopsis What Prevents a Real Business Cycle Model from Matching the U.S. Data? Decomposing the Labor Wedge by : Dmitry Plotnikov
Download or read book What Prevents a Real Business Cycle Model from Matching the U.S. Data? Decomposing the Labor Wedge written by Dmitry Plotnikov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-08 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I carry out a business cycle accounting exercise (Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan, 2007) on the U.S. data measured in wage units (Farmer (2010)) for the entire postwar period. In contrast to a conventional approach, this approach preserves common medium-term business cycle fluctuations in GDP, its components and the unemployment rate. Additionally, it facilitates decomposition of the labor wedge into the labor supply and the labor demand wedges. Using this business cycle accounting methodology, I find that in the transformed data, most movements in GDP are accounted for by the labor supply wedge. Therefore, I reverse a key finding of the real business cycle literature which asserts that 70% or more of economic fluctuations can be explained by TFP shocks. In other words, the real business cycle model fits the data badly because the assumption that households are on their labor supply equation is flawed. This failure is masked by data that has been filtered with a conventional approach that removes fluctuations at medium frequencies. My findings are consistent with the literature on incomplete labor markets.
Book Synopsis Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries by :
Download or read book Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Duration of Business Cycles by : Martin Everts
Download or read book Duration of Business Cycles written by Martin Everts and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper the Bry and Boschan (1971) procedure is modified such that it can be applied to quarterly data in order to recalculate the maximum duration of business cycles. In this way it can be shown that the maximum duration of business cycles constitutes 42 quarters in the United States of America and 49 quarters in the United Kingdom. The large difference to the maximum duration of Burns and Mitchell (1946) makes clear that caution is advisable with the application of the filters by Baxter and King (1999) and Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003). If one chooses the maximum duration too low (high), the amplitude of the medium-term business cycles is underestimated (overestimated) and the variability of the growth rate of the long-term trend is overestimated (underestimated).
Download or read book Growth Cycles written by George W. Evans and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a rational expectations model in which aggregate growth alternates between a low growth and a high growth state. When all agents expect growth to be slow, the returns on investment are low, and little investment takes place. This slows growth and confirms the prediction that the returns on investment will be low. But if agents expect fast growth, investment is high, returns are high, and growth is rapid. This expectational indeterminacy is induced by complementarity between different types of capital goods. In a growth cycle there are stochastic shifts between high and low growth states and agents take full account of these transitions. The rules that agents need to form rational expectations in this equilibrium are simple. The equilibrium with growth cycles is stable under the dynamics implied by a correspondingly simple learning rule.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by Ayer Publishing. This book was released on 1970-06-01 with total page 610 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Business Cycles and Their Causes by : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Download or read book Business Cycles and Their Causes written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Victor Zarnowitz
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles in the Contemporary World by : Bernd Süssmuth
Download or read book Business Cycles in the Contemporary World written by Bernd Süssmuth and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a thorough and sophisticated descriptive analysis of business cycles in a historical perspective. The study is based on the latest available time series as well as latest techniques from the frequency domain. A combined univariate and bivariate analysis is conducted on the national as well as supranational (G7- and Euro-Area wide) level. Issues of stability, volatility, and cyclicality are investigated jointly. An extensive analysis of US manufacturing investment series on the fairly disaggregated four-digit level highlights the limits of linear models to capture the sectoral aggregation process. Synchronization is modelled by a mode-locking mechanism of industrial investment cycles induced by informational externalities. The model in its stochastic version is numerically simulated to assess an agreement between model and data.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles and Financial Crises by : A. W. Mullineux
Download or read book Business Cycles and Financial Crises written by A. W. Mullineux and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
